Top MLB DFS Plays & Props 9/9 | Running Through a Busy Tuesday Slate! ⚾

Tuesday, September 9th ⚾️ DFS Plays & Props for Today's MLB Action

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

For the first time since last Wednesday, there is no form of football kicking off this evening, so MLB returns as the main attraction. Tuesday will feature a healthy 11-game main slate with plenty of excellent matchups on the board! The slate features a pretty solid mix of pitching and hitting, and there are zero weather concerns to worry about. It should be a fun slate to build around, so let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣9/9 Dinger Report💣

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

  • DET at NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Light 5-10 mph winds IN from left/center.

  • CHC at ATL (7:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): Light winds mostly OUT to right, a bit left-to-right.

  • TB at CWS (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): ~5 mph winds IN from center.

  • BOS at ATH (10:05 ET, 10.5 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to left/center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $10k, FD: $10k | vs. STL

Kirby has been walloped in a couple of recent outings, giving up seven runs apiece to the Rays and Mets. But both of those games were on the road -- Kirby’s road ERA of 5.74 this season is over 2 1/2 runs higher than his 3.16 home ERA. Outside of those two disastrous starts, Kirby has put up quality starts (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) in his other previous six outings. The Mariners (-217 ML) also check in as the second-heaviest favorites on today’s slate.

Kirby’s current form may not be perfect, but the matchup certainly elevates his outlook this evening. Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Cardinals are hitting under the Mendoza Line with a .198 AVG to go alongside a .602 OPS, 70 wRC+, and a massive 28.6% kRate, which is the second-highest in baseball during that stretch. $10k feels like a steep price to pay for Kirby at the moment, but if he limits the barrels (eight barreled balls L30Days, bottom 15th percentile), then he should be able to coast to a sharp performance.

 

Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD | DK: $9k, FD: $8.9k | vs. COL

It is a mild shock to see Emmet Sheehan priced at the $9k threshold, but he is deserving of the price bumps. Since July 25th (36.1 IP), Sheehan has procured a very respectable 3.22 ERA, 3.61 xFIP, .193 opp AVG, 1.07 WHIP, and a superb 29.7% kRate. Outside of a fairly high flyball rate (47.3%) and the six home runs he has allowed in that stretch (1.50 HR/9 Rate), there isn’t much to complain about. In 24.0 IP at home this season, Sheehan has also obtained a 2.63 ERA, 3.10 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 0.75 HR/9 Rate, and 29.2% kRate, so we’ll like the fact that he is toeing the rubber at Dodger Stadium this evening.

What we’ll also like, or rather LOVE, is the matchup with the “road Rockies”. The Rockies are back to their woeful hitting ways when playing outside of Coors Field. Against RHPs on the road over the last month (309 plate appearances), Colorado has mustered a meager .195 AVG, .523 OPS, .230 wOBA, .099 ISO, 42 wRC+, and 28.2% kRate with a low 2.9% BB%. In those splits, they have easily been the worst offense in baseball. This is another spot where we’re going to ignore a pitcher’s recent statcast data (there are a lot of red figures in Sheehan’s statcast data over the last month) and just roll with what makes sense on the surface. The Dodgers (-337 ML) also check in as the heaviest favorites on today’s slate, so we’ll like Sheehan’s chance at snagging the win bonus as well.

 

Zebby Matthews (RHP), MIN | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9k | at LAA

There is ample strikeout potential for Matthews today as he heads into start No. 14 with a 26.6% kRate and 12.7% SwStr%. On the season, Matthews sits with a rather lackluster 4.73 ERA, but his 3.58 xFIP is over a run lower than the ERA, which tells us he has been quite unlucky and has pitched better than the ERA would indicate.

The matchup sets up nicely as the Angels have the lowest batting average (.178) against RHPs L2Weeks, alongside a poor .601 OPS, 69 wRC+, and a huge 29.8% kRate, which is the highest in baseball. This Angels lineup is very RHB-heavy, which bodes well for Matthews. Matthews’ 28% kRate against LHBs is a few points higher than his 25% kRate versus RHBs, but his opponent wOBA, ISO, and HR/9 Rate are significantly lower against RHBs than LHBs. He’ll probably give up some offensive production, but I don’t see Matthews getting shelled in this one, and the strikeout upside speaks for itself.

 

Other Pitchers to Consider

Shane Bieber (RHP), TOR | DK: $10.3k, FD: $9.6k | vs. HOU

Cade Horton (RHP), CHC | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.6k | at ATL

Will Warren (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.2k | vs. DET

Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.8k | vs. MIL

Chad Patrick (RHP), MIL | DK: $7k, FD: $8.8k | at TEX

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU

The Blue Jays continue to rake, and they return home to open this series with Houston -- Toronto has ranked as the #2 home offense in MLB, averaging 5.32 runs/gm. Against RHPs L2Weeks, they’ve put up a .306 AVG (2nd), .886 OPS (2nd), .377 wOBA (2nd), .211 ISO (4th), 144 wRC+ (2nd), and 18.6% kRate (5th lowest).

After undergoing Tommy John surgery back in May of 2023, Luis Garcia made his first MLB start in over two years eight days ago at home against the Angels. By all means, he looked pretty solid, pitching to a quality start (6 IP, 3 ER) on 79 pitches with 6 Ks, and he earned the win. Garcia had a fairly extensive rehab assignment, throwing 30.0 IP across nine appearances at the single-A, double-A, and triple-A levels. The results against the minor leaguers were also good -- 3.30 ERA, 3.76 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, 31.1% kRate, 5.7% BB%. However, he did give up five homers across that rehab assignment, resulting in a 1.50 HR/9 Rate. The Angels also represented a soft matchup for Garcia to make his MLB return against… now he will have to pitch on the road and try to contain one of the hottest offenses in baseball, and I could see things going south for him in this spot.

Favorite TOR Bats: George Springer, Daulton Varsho, Vlad Guerrero Jr.

Bargain Bats: Alejandro Kirk, Joey Loperfido

 

Minnesota Twins vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

I’ll have less interest in this Twins stack if Byron Buxton (knee contusion/day-to-day) isn’t in the lineup, but, at the moment, Bux seems likely to play after sitting out yesterday’s game. Outside of Buxton, there are some other hot hitters within this lineup -- e.g., Luke Keaschall and Royce Lewis, who are also contributing plenty of stolen bases. It’s a small sample size, but the Twins have been a top 10 offense over the last week, and they lead MLB with 11 stolen bases in that stretch.

But the major draw is the pitching matchup against Kyle Hendricks and a bad Angels bullpen. Hendricks is a soft contact merchant who makes his living forcing weakly hit grounders and popouts. For all intents and purposes, he does a good job at accomplishing that. But that also means he’s putting plenty of balls in play, which can lead to some blow-up innings if those batted balls find gaps or clear the fence. Over his last 13 starts, Hendricks has pitched to a lackluster 4.82 ERA, 5.14 xFIP, 1.50 HR/9 Rate, and 13.0% kRate. If the Twins can knock Hendricks off the mound early, they’ll get additional ABs against an Angels bullpen that heads in with a 5.94 ERA, 4.84 xFIP, 1.60 WHIP, and 1.80 HR/9 Rate over the last two weeks.

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Luke Keaschall, Royce Lewis

Bargain Bats: Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Austin Martin

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Diego Padres vs. Zack Littell (RHP), CIN

Every hitter in the projected Padres lineup has a < 8% pOwn%. The Padres have ranked top 10 in AVG (.274) and wRC+ (114) against RHPs L2Weeks and set up well against a laboring Zack Littell this evening.

Across his last five starts, Littell has come away with a 5.76 ERA, 4.62 xFIP, .286 opp AVG, .363 opp wOBA, 2.50 HR/9 Rate, and 16.8% kRate. He has given up a high 29.9% LineDrive% and 90.9 mph average exit velo in that span. This Padres lineup is also one he has not found much success against. In 83 plate appearances versus the current Padres’ roster, Littell has allowed a .342 AVG with just a 15.7% kRate. Backing Littell will be a Reds bullpen that owns a 5.80 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and 2.40 HR/9 Rate L2Weeks. The Padres are being pinned with a 4.2 implied run total today, and I’d say there is a strong chance they outperform those expectations.

Favorite SD Bats: Fernando Tatis Jr., Ramon Laureano, Jackson Merrill

Bargain Bats: Gavin Sheets, Jake Cronenworth, Freddy Fermin

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

OF Kyle Tucker, CHC vs. Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL

3B Junior Caminero, TB vs. Yoendrys Gomez (RHP), CWS

2B Ketel Marte, ARI vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD vs. Zack Littell (RHP), CIN

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA vs. Matthew Liberatore (RHP), STL

C Shea Langeliers, ATH vs. Connelly Early (LHP), BOS

1B Rafael Devers, SF vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

OF Riley Greene, DET vs. Will Warren (RHP), NYY

OF George Springer, TOR vs. Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU

SS Trevor Story, BOS vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Michael King (RHP), SD

2B Brice Turang, MIL vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

1B Matt Olson, ATL vs. Cade Horton (RHP), CHC

SS Colson Montgomery, CWS vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), TB

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX vs. Chad Patrick (RHP), MIL

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. Shane Bieber (RHP), TOR

OF Jo Adell, LAA vs. Zebby Matthews (RHP), MIN

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

3B Max Muncy, LAD vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. Zebby Matthews (RHP), MIN

3B Matt Chapman, SF vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

2B Ozzie Albies, ATL vs. Cade Horton (RHP), CHC

OF Rob Refsnyder, BOS vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

2B Jorge Polanco, SEA vs. Matthew Liberatore (RHP), STL

OF Ian Happ, CHC vs. Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL

OF Matt Wallner, MIN vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

C Alejandro Kirk, TOR vs. Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU

OF Gavin Sheets, SD vs. Zack Littell (RHP), CIN

OF Trevor Larnach, MIN vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

3B Royce Lewis, MIN vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

2B Jake Cronenworth, SD vs. Zack Littell (RHP), CIN

OF Austin Martin, MIN vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

OF Drew Gilbert, SF vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

C Freddy Fermin, SD vs. Zack Littell (RHP), CIN

OF Joey Loperfido, TOR vs. Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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