Rounding the Bases | LineStar’s 2025 MLB DFS Primer & Strategy Guide ⚾

Welcome back for another highly anticipated MLB season! The Dodgers and Cubs officially kick things off with the two-game Tokyo Series this week (March 18th and 19th), but Thursday, March 27th, marks the traditional MLB Opening Day. To all my fellow MLB and DFS enthusiasts—it’s time to get back into the swing of things!

Has late-season NBA DFS been driving you crazy? Maybe you’re looking to fill the void left by NFL DFS? Is NHL, PGA, UFC, or NASCAR DFS just not your thing? If you haven’t ventured into MLB DFS before, now is the perfect time to expand your horizons!

Here at LineStar, we’re always looking for ways to give our subscribers an edge. As the title suggests, this guide will get you primed for a brand-new baseball season while sharing MLB DFS strategies, tips, and advice to help you turn your hard-earned cash into, hopefully, much MORE cash. Whether you’re a casual player throwing a few bucks on a slate here and there or a high-rolling DFS veteran entering 150 lineups into large tournaments daily, it never hurts to shake off the mental cobwebs and get a refresher—regardless of your experience level. Feel free to bookmark this newsletter for future reference, or look for it in the header of our daily newsletters throughout the season where it will be linked.

Fair warning—this is a long read (and may be clipped short if you’re viewing this via email). But if you’re looking for an edge, need a refresher, or just want to compare approaches to MLB DFS, I highly encourage you to read it through!

Welcome back to baseball, everyone! Here’s to a profitable season!

LineStar Daily Ledger Newsletters & YouTube Content

For the 2025 MLB season, I’m thrilled to once again have the honor of writing the LineStar Daily Ledger newsletters for the seventh consecutive year. LineStar subscribers can expect an MLB newsletter for every main slate, Monday through Friday. These will be delivered straight to your email inbox and simultaneously linked at the top of the projections page on both the app and desktop site. Typically, newsletters will be sent out and posted around 3–4 PM ET—roughly three to four hours before the slate begins.

My main goal with these newsletters is to provide a reliable, easily digestible daily introduction to every main slate. This includes covering Vegas spreads and implied team totals, highlighting potential weather concerns, touching on major MLB news, trades, or injuries when relevant, and, of course, the ‘meat’ of each newsletter will be centered around spotlighting some of the slate’s top pitchers, team stacks, one-off hitters, and value plays that I find most appealing or intriguing.

We’ll also mix in some fun extras, like my MLB PrizePicks Power Play of the Day and the Home Run Calls of the Day from myself, Tyler Wiemann, and Shannon Sommerville! The “Home Run Calls of the Day” contest will run daily (Monday–Friday) on the LineStar Twitter/X. Anyone who retweets the post will have a chance to win some great prizes—so be sure to follow along!

Tyler and Shannon will also be recording two daily YouTube videos—one for DFS and one for player props. These will be linked in the newsletter, but I highly recommend subscribing to the LineStar YouTube channel so you never miss the latest content.

If you have any suggestions for additions or changes to the newsletters, or if you have any general questions or concerns, feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat or reach out anytime on Twitter/X @Ryan_Humphries!

Here are a couple of videos Tyler & Shannon have put together ahead of this MLB season!

General MLB Strategy

For anyone new to MLB DFS, it’s important to understand that baseball is arguably the most volatile sport in daily fantasy. One of the best players in the game could have a dream matchup against a weak starting pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark—only to go 0-for-4 on the night. Meanwhile, an unheralded minor leaguer who just got called up the day before could go 3-for-4 with a home run and a pile of RBIs against an ace. Even baseball’s all-time greats failed 70% of the time at the plate. That’s just how the game works. Don’t get discouraged if you hit a rough patch where you struggle to pick the right hitters or pitchers for several days in a row. The MLB regular season is a 162-game marathon—it’s a grind. No MLB DFS player is profitable every single day.

With that in mind, strict bankroll management is absolutely crucial if you’re playing with a long-term ROI mindset. I recommend allocating between 5% and 15% (max) of your overall bankroll toward each main slate you plan to play. If you’re not someone who leaves a notable amount of money in your DFS accounts, scale that to 5-15% of what you’re willing to allocate toward DFS each month. To start the season, I’d advise sticking to the lower end of that range for at least the first couple of weeks. Players can regress both positively and negatively year over year for a variety of reasons—changing teams and playing in a better or worse ballpark, recovering from or dealing with an injury, adjusting their swing mechanics in the offseason, etc. Early in the season, we have to rely primarily on data from previous years, though spring training performances can offer some insight to an extent. It usually takes a minimum of two to four weeks of games before we get a solid read on how a hitter is performing in 2025. This “what kind of player are they this season?” evaluation period is even longer for starting pitchers since they only pitch once every five or six days. I generally feel more confident in current-season data once hitters have around 20 games and 60–80 at-bats under their belts. For pitchers, I’d say four to five starts and 25–30 innings pitched is a reasonable sample size to begin trusting.

Baseball is also a sport where you need to stay vigilant as slate lock time approaches. Similar to the NBA, MLB starting lineups can be shuffled around, and unexpected last-minute scratches are always a possibility. These situations can also create value—if a cheap hitter unexpectedly moves into a premium lineup spot, that could be an edge worth exploiting. Most MLB teams announce lineups multiple hours ahead of their scheduled game times (considerably earlier than NBA teams usually do), so late scratches after lock are rare, but they do happen. Both DraftKings and FanDuel offer a late swap feature, so you’ll be covered if one of your late-game players is ruled out in time—but this requires staying on top of news throughout the day and into the evening!

Also, as a general rule of thumb, be aware of the MLB scoring system for your preferred DFS site!

Cash Game Strategy

First off, let me preface this by saying there is no one-size-fits-all approach to playing DFS—especially in baseball. Not everyone will agree with every aspect of my strategy, and that’s completely fine! My goal here is simply to share the methods and processes that over a dozen years of DFS trials and tribulations have led me to use.

For any given MLB slate, I generally allocate more of my bankroll toward cash games (double-ups, triple-ups, head-to-heads, and 50/50s) rather than GPPs (guaranteed prize pools, aka tournaments). On most slates, I invest about 60–70% of my daily bankroll into cash games and 30–40% into GPPs and other non-cash contests. However, there are times when I’ll go all-in on tournament play and allocate 100% of my daily spend to GPPs if a particular slate has a strong GPP feel to it. While landing a massive five or six-figure payday is always the dream, the odds of that happening are slim. My primary focus is long-term ROI—building around players in optimal spots rather than relying too heavily on the “contrarian slot machine,” hoping to hit in the top 0.005%. That’s not to say I avoid high-upside GPP leverage plays altogether, but in a sport as statistically driven as baseball, I prefer putting the majority of my money toward plays that make the most sense. The LineStar MLB Daily Ledger newsletters will reflect that approach, but rest assured, I’ll still highlight plenty of contrarian GPP-centric plays throughout the season.

A common strategy for cash games across all DFS sports is to focus on building one core lineup specifically for cash contests. I follow the same approach in MLB DFS. In large-field 50/50 contests (e.g., 100-player 50/50s), where 1st place pays the same as 50th place, I never worry about ownership percentages in my cash lineup. It’s perfectly fine to roster the more obvious, high-owned “chalk” plays. In fact, if a player is, say, 40% owned in a double-up and has a bad game, it won’t hurt your standing as much since nearly half the field is in the same boat. On the other hand, if you take a much riskier player who flops at <5% ownership, it can significantly damage your chances of cashing.

When constructing a cash lineup for slates with a decent number of games (at least six or seven), the best approach is typically to prioritize one-off hitters (a single batter from a team) or mini-stacks (two to three batters from the same team) who are in excellent matchups, ideally hitting in the top five spots in the batting order. Personally, I rarely stack four or more hitters from the same team in a cash lineup unless that team is in a smash spot and/or perhaps playing at Coors Field, aka the most hitter-friendly ballpark in MLB.

One final piece of advice: ALWAYS enter your cash lineup into at least one GPP—even if it’s just a $1 tournament! I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard someone say something along the lines of, “Damnit! I would’ve won $25,000 if I had entered my cash lineup in a tournament.” If you’re targeting the safest plays in the best matchups, it stands to reason that eventually, your cash lineup will absolutely smash from top to bottom. And quite often, some of the players you expect to be super chalky in cash games end up being <10% owned in GPPs. There’s no reason not to take a shot on that upside. Trust me—just do it!

GPP Team Stacking & Weather Impacts

Team stacking is one of the most powerful strategies you can deploy when building MLB GPP lineups. For those unfamiliar, “stacking” in MLB DFS simply refers to rostering multiple hitters from the same team who bat near each other in the lineup. The goal is to capitalize on a team’s offensive explosion—ideally, your stacked players will get on base while others drive them in, leading to a chain reaction of fantasy points. A well-executed stack can skyrocket your lineup up the leaderboards.

Most DFS players gravitate toward stacking hitters at the top of the lineup (spots 1–5), which makes sense since those are usually a team’s best hitters who are guaranteed the most at-bats. However, you can differentiate your lineups by incorporating players further down the order—such as a 3–7 stack in a five-man build. Another overlooked method is the “wraparound stack,” which might include batters 8, 9, 1, 2, and 3. This approach can be especially useful on smaller slates when it’s harder to create unique lineups.

On DraftKings, common stacking formats include:

• 4-4 stack – Four hitters from two different teams

• 5-3 stack – Five hitters from one team, three from another

• 4-3-1 or 3-3-2 stack – Mixing mini-stacks, perhaps with a one-off hitter

• 2-2-2-2 stack – A balanced approach with two-man mini-stacks from multiple teams

Skipping over a batter in the order is also fine, especially if you’re targeting platoon advantages (e.g., stacking righties or lefties against an opposing pitcher’s weakness).

Targeting Road Teams for Extra At-Bats

When stacking, road teams can sometimes offer a slight advantage—especially if you’re including players further down the order. Road teams are guaranteed to bat in the 9th inning, while home teams won’t hit in the bottom of the 9th if they’re already winning at that point. That one extra plate appearance can make a huge difference in DFS, particularly when stacking multiple hitters who could benefit from one final at-bat in the final inning. That said, I don’t avoid stacking home teams whatsoever—it’s just a small bonus in favor of road teams.

Finding Low-Owned Stacks

Being contrarian in GPPs can provide a clear edge. Most DFS players won’t take a chance stacking against an aces like Chris Sale or Paul Skenes, but even elite pitchers get shelled sometimes. These “against-the-grain” stacks carry more risk, but they can pay off massively when they hit. If you’re looking for insight on low-owned stack targets, hit up @ZeroInDenver in the LineStar chat—he’s the contrarian MLB stack guru!

Is Stacking a Must in GPPs?

Not necessarily. Plenty of MLB tournaments have been won with lineups full of one-off hitters and a couple of mini-stacks. However, if a team puts up 10+ runs in a game, there’s a strong chance that multiple hitters from that lineup will be in the optimal GPP-winning builds.

Weather Considerations

This applies to both GPP and cash games—weather plays a major role in MLB DFS. Certain conditions favor hitters, while others benefit pitchers:

• High altitude (e.g., Coors Field, 5,200 feet) – Thinner air = more home runs

• Hot & humid weather (e.g., Truist Park in Atlanta during summer) – Baseballs carry farther

• Winds blowing out – Increased home run potential

• Cool temperatures (40s–50s) & strong winds blowing in – Great pitching environment

• Rain & storms – Delays or postponements can ruin a lineup

I’ll highlight the most important weather impacts in my newsletters, but conditions can change between when I write my articles and when games start. For real-time updates, LineStar’s MLB Daily Dashboard provides hour-by-hour forecasts and postponement risk percentages at the bottom of every game’s lineup card.

Contest Selection

Before we get into the stats sections, one final topic I want to cover—applicable to all DFS formats but especially crucial for GPPs—is contest selection. It’s easy to get drawn into massive tournaments with six-figure payouts and 150-max entries, but that’s not always the best approach—especially if you prefer playing a single lineup or just a handful of lineups.

If you’re not someone who enters dozens (or hundreds) of lineups, consider single-entry or three-entry max contests, where you’re on a more level playing field with the competition. In large-field GPPs that allow 150-max entries, you’re at a significant disadvantage if you’re only rolling out a few lineups.

Many DFS players also limit themselves to traditional GPPs without exploring alternative formats like:

• Quintuple-ups – 20% of the field wins 5x their buy-in

• 10x Multipliers – A smaller percentage of players win 10x their buy-in

• Winner-Take-Alls – Only 1st place gets paid (high risk, high reward)

• Satellites – Win entries into higher-stakes contests for a fraction of the cost

If your preference is to take one shot at the largest GPP of the day with a $100K first-place payout, go for it! Just know that this approach isn’t ideal for long-term ROI.

Example of Contest Allocation ($100 Bankroll Expenditure on DraftKings, 6+ Game Slate)

Cash Games Utilizing a Single Cash Game Lineup ($60 total):

✅ $25 Single-Entry Double-Up
✅ $10 Single-Entry Double-Up
✅ $5 Single-Entry Double-Up
✅ $10 Head-to-Head Contest
✅ $10 Triple-Up

GPPs ($40 total):

✅ $12 Single-Entry GPP
✅ $5 to max-enter a $0.25 GPP (20 lineups)
✅ $9 in a three-entry max $3 GPP (three lineups)
✅ $3 in a three-entry max $1 Winner-Take-All ($100 to 1st)
✅ $3 in three $1 Quintuple-Ups (often using my cash lineup)
✅ $8 for miscellaneous contest entries (e.g., single bullet in an $8 GPP with massive top-heavy payouts or spread across low-dollar satellites entries)

This is just an example of how I might allocate my contest selection on a typical slate, but my approach changes from slate to slate. Some days call for a GPP-heavy strategy, while others are better suited for cash-game focus.

At the end of the day, play how you want and have fun—just be aware that DFS is inherently risky. Managing your contest selection wisely can go a long way in helping you maximize your ROI and minimize variance.

Key Statistics & Research Tools for MLB DFS

Baseball, while simple at its core, has evolved into one of the most data-rich sports. With dozens of advanced stats and analytical metrics, it’s easy to get overwhelmed. But at the end of the day, baseball is still highly unpredictable, and no amount of data can fully eliminate the randomness that makes the game so exciting.

That said, leveraging key statistics can provide a crucial predictive edge in DFS—and sometimes, that small edge is the difference between cashing and busting. Below, I’ll highlight the most important stats and research tools I use when building MLB DFS lineups, whether it’s for building a single bullet lineup or 100+ lineups. You’ll also see these metrics referenced frequently in my daily newsletters throughout the season.

Best Resources for MLB DFS Research (in addition to LineStar)

While LineStar does a fantastic job of highlighting the most relevant DFS stats, they can’t fit everything on one screen without cluttering the interface. If you’re looking to dive deeper into advanced data, splits, and trends, two free resources I highly recommend are:

• FanGraphs – One of the most comprehensive baseball stat sites, great for advanced metrics, splits, and player trends.

• Baseball Savant – Powered by Statcast, this site provides elite-level data like exit velocity, launch angle, barrel rates, and more. LineStar provides some of these Statcast data points but Baseball Savant can show you a load of advanced metric information.

Both sites are much easier to navigate on a desktop/laptop than on a phone, and they can take some time to master. But if you ever need help navigating FanGraphs or Baseball Savant, feel free to DM me on Twitter—I’m happy to assist (tag me in a tweet if I don’t answer your DM in a timely manner).

By combining the data from these sources with the tools provided by LineStar, you’ll have everything you need to make well-informed, high-upside DFS decisions.

Key Pitching Info & Metrics ⚾

When I build MLB DFS lineups, I almost always start with pitching before moving on to hitters and stacks. That’s because pitchers generally carry less variance than hitters on a daily basis, making them the more stable foundation of a lineup. Below are the key stats and metrics I rely on when narrowing down my list of preferred pitchers.

Primary Pitching Stats & Info

These are the go-to stats I use to evaluate pitchers, and you’ll see them referenced often in my daily newsletters.

Vegas Totals & Moneyline Favorites

This one’s simple: If a pitcher is taking the mound for a team that’s a -250 favorite with an implied total of less than 3.5 runs against, that usually means he’s in an excellent spot. These types of odds are typically reserved for elite aces, but even an above average starter in a good matchup who is also backed up by a solid offense will often have around -170 moneyline odds and an implied total under 4.5 runs against.

While Vegas lines shouldn’t be the only deciding factor, they’re a solid starting point for research. Major sportsbooks use advanced algorithms and deep data models to set these lines, so it’s smart to weigh their importance when evaluating pitchers.

kRate (Strikeout Percentage or K%)

Strikeouts are king in DFS scoring for pitchers, and you want guys with high K upside in your lineups. A pitcher who allows a few hits and runs is still viable if he can rack up double-digit strikeouts.

I also prefer kRate (K%) over K/9, as it gives a better indication of a pitcher’s dominance and efficiency.

Example:

• Pitcher A: 7 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 6 K

• Pitcher B: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 6 K

Both pitchers have the same K/9, but when you factor in the number of batters faced:

• Pitcher A: Faced 31 batters → 19.4% kRate

• Pitcher B: Faced 25 batters → 24% kRate

kRate tells us that Pitcher B is more efficient at generating strikeouts, making him the better DFS target despite similar K/9 numbers.

Additionally, always check an opposing team’s kRate splits vs. RHPs/LHPs. A low-strikeout pitcher can see a major K% boost against a lineup prone to whiffing.

xFIP (Expected Field Independent Pitching)

xFIP is an advanced stat that takes the basic concept of FIP (Field Independent Pitching) and refines it further to predict a more accurate future ERA for a pitcher. The traditional ERA stat can be misleading, as it often doesn't tell the full story of a pitcher’s skill. xFIP helps by trying to remove the luck and randomness factors that can dramatically affect ERA.

When a pitcher’s xFIP differs significantly from his ERA (especially early in the season), it can provide valuable insight into whether that pitcher might be undervalued or overvalued.

Example:

• Pitcher A: ERA = 3.20, xFIP = 4.80

  • Pitcher A might be benefiting from some good luck (i.e., balls in play not finding holes) and is likely due for regression. He could be overvalued in DFS, as his performance may not be sustainable.

• Pitcher B: ERA = 4.15, xFIP = 3.40

  • Pitcher B is possibly undervalued and could outperform his ERA over the long term.

League average xFIP is typically around 3.90.

• A xFIP below 3.20 is excellent, while anything above 4.30 would be considered poor.

WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched)

A pitcher’s primary job is to limit runs, which usually comes down to preventing base runners. That’s why WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched) is a key metric to watch. While WHIP is a solid stat, it doesn’t tell the full story, as it treats walks the same as home runs, which isn’t always a fair comparison. Still, it’s a reliable starting point when evaluating pitchers on any given slate.

An average pitcher’s WHIP is typically around 1.30.

• A WHIP of 1.10 or lower is considered elite.

• A WHIP above 1.60 is generally poor and should raise red flags.

SwStr% (Swinging Strike Percentage)

SwStr% is calculated by taking the total swings and misses from opposing batters and dividing that by the total pitches thrown. This stat is valuable because it helps indicate how unhittable a pitcher is and whether their kRate (strikeout rate) is overperforming or underperforming. Generally, if you double a pitcher’s SwStr%, it can give you a rough estimate of where their kRate should fall.

League average SwStr% is around 10%.

• A SwStr% above 14% is considered elite.

• A SwStr% below 8.5% would be considered poor.

CSW% (Called + Swinging Strike Percentage)

CSW% is a more recently developed metric that combines Swinging Strike Percentage (SwStr%) with Called Strike Percentage (CStr%). Simply put, it's the sum of these two stats, and it provides a clear picture of a pitcher’s ability to both control the strike zone and generate whiffs. A high CSW% indicates a pitcher who is not only unhittable but also has excellent control over the strike zone.

Pitchers with a CSW% near or above 30% are usually among the most desirable for your DFS lineups.

Home/Road Splits

Home/road splits are an important factor when assessing pitchers, as some tend to perform significantly better at home or away. Some pitchers thrive with the comfort and familiarity of home, while others may be mentally rattled when on the road, affecting their mechanics.

Additionally, park factors play a crucial role. Pitcher-friendly ballparks, such as T-Mobile Park (Mariners) or Oracle Park (Giants), may lead to stronger home splits for pitchers. Conversely, hitter-friendly parks, like Coors Field (Rockies) or Fenway Park (Red Sox), can negatively impact pitchers’ home splits. Always keep this in mind when making your decisions.

Secondary Pitching Stats & Info

While the following stats aren't always the first thing I look at, they can help when digging deeper into pitcher evaluations for a specific slate.

SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA)

While xFIP attempts to predict a pitcher’s true skill by focusing on strikeouts, walks, and home runs, SIERA expands further by factoring in balls in play. It aims to explain why some pitchers are more successful at limiting hits and preventing runs. SIERA has been proven to be highly predictive of a pitcher’s overall performance. A lower SIERA correlates strongly with a higher strikeout rate.

League average SIERA is typically around 3.90.

• A SIERA below 3.25 is considered excellent.

• A SIERA above 4.50 would be considered poor.

GB% (Ground Ball %), FB% (Fly Ball %), LD% (Line Drive %)

These metrics help define what kind of pitcher you’re dealing with. While not every pitcher will neatly fit into categories like ground ball or fly ball pitcher, many do. Additionally, because line drives lead to hits more often than ground balls and fly balls, pitchers with high LD% may pose more risk in DFS (or are worth stacking hitters against).

• Average GB% for pitchers is around 44%. A pitcher is considered a ground ball pitcher if their GB% exceeds 50%.

• Average FB% for pitchers is around 35%. A pitcher is considered a fly ball pitcher if their FB% is near or above 40%.

• Average LD% for pitchers is around 20%. A high LD% indicates the pitcher is likely struggling.

Additionally, when evaluating fly ball pitchers, take note of their Hard% (the percentage of hard-hit balls). If a fly ball pitcher has a Hard% near or above 40%, they are more likely to give up home runs—something to consider when facing power hitters.

Soft%, Med%, Hard% (Soft/Medium/Hard Contact Rate)

Soft%, Med%, and Hard% represent the percentage of a hitter or pitcher’s batted balls that have been hit with varying levels of authority. These metrics are calculated using data from Baseball Info Solutions (BIS), though the exact algorithm is proprietary. In general, these numbers are based on factors like hang time, location, and trajectory.

• Soft contact is typically a good sign for pitchers since it indicates weakly batted balls that are less likely to result in hits.

• Hard contact is generally a red flag because pitchers who give up a high amount of hard contact are more likely to allow extra-base hits and home runs, which can significantly hurt their DFS potential.

• Soft%: A Soft% near or above 20% is considered elite.

• Hard%: A Hard% near or above 35% is considered poor.

The goal is for pitchers to generate more soft contact while limiting hard contact. If you can identify pitchers who consistently induce weak contact, it can be a major advantage for your DFS lineups.

HR/FB Rate (Home Run to Fly Ball Rate) & HR/9 (Home Runs Allowed Per 9 Innings Pitched)

A pitcher’s fantasy points can quickly tank if they give up home runs, especially multi-run homers. Two critical stats that help evaluate a pitcher’s potential for surrendering home runs are HR/FB Rate and HR/9.

• HR/FB Rate shows the percentage of fly balls that result in home runs.

• HR/9 indicates the number of home runs allowed per nine innings pitched.

• HR/FB Rate: A rate of around 5% is considered excellent, and league average tends to be around 9.5%. Anything above 13% is considered poor, signaling that a pitcher is giving up too many home runs on fly balls.

• HR/9: A HR/9 below 1.00 is considered strong. The lower the number, the better. Once a pitcher’s HR/9 climbs above 1.50, they become a potential target for opposing power hitters, especially if they’re pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark with favorable weather conditions (hot, humid, or windy conditions can boost home run rates).

Key Batting Info & Metrics

As mentioned earlier, no matter how hot a hitter is or how high of a DFS salary you’re paying for them, there’s always a chance they’ll go 0-for-4 and leave you with a goose egg in your lineup. That’s just baseball for you, and it’s an inevitable part of MLB DFS. However, by diving into the right stats, you can improve your odds and make more informed decisions when choosing both team stacks and one-off hitters.

Note: Many of the stats I discuss for pitching can also help you identify struggling pitchers to target with hitters/stacks, and vice versa—hitting metrics can help pinpoint teams or hitters to focus on when facing struggling pitchers.

For example: If a team has a 28% kRate and a sub-.300 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the last month, it’s a solid idea to consider rostering the opposing RHP in DFS lineups.

Primary Batting Stats & Info

These are the key metrics I rely on most when identifying strong stacks and one-off hitters. You’ll often see these referenced in the daily newsletters.

Vegas Implied Run Total

This is as straightforward as it gets. Teams projected to score 5.0+ runs have a strong offensive outlook. Teams on a hot streak or in an especially favorable spot could even see totals of 6.0+ runs. Coors Field is a prime example: Teams playing in Colorado (or visiting teams) can see implied totals near or above 7.0 runs, especially in warmer weather conditions during late spring and summer.

Ballpark/Weather Factor

As touched on earlier, ballpark factors and weather are critical. If a team is playing in a hitter’s park or has favorable conditions (hot, humid weather or winds blowing out), they become a team worth targeting—even if they’re facing a strong pitcher. You can check out rankings of the best and worst hitter-friendly parks from last season by clicking this link.

wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average)

wOBA is a fantastic “catch-all” offensive statistic. Unlike the standard batting average metric, which treats all hits equally, wOBA values different types of hits (singles, doubles, triples, home runs) based on their actual contribution to scoring. This metric is my go-to when looking for cash-safe hitters.

• League Average wOBA: Around .320

• Elite hitters: .400+ wOBA

• Poor hitters: .290 wOBA or below

wOBA provides a more nuanced look at a player’s overall offensive performance, making it one of the most reliable stats for DFS.

wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus)

wRC+ is a great stat to help gauge a player’s offensive value, especially when compared to the league average. It adjusts for park factors and current scoring trends, giving you a clearer picture of a player’s effectiveness.

• A wRC+ of 100 always represents the exact league average.

• A wRC+ of 140 means the player is generating 40% more offensive value than the average hitter.

• Elite hitters typically post a wRC+ of 160 or better.

• Poor or struggling hitters have a wRC+ of 70 or lower.

I love wRC+ because it’s simple to interpret and accurately shows how impactful a hitter is. Whether you’re looking for top performers or potential value plays, wRC+ is one of the best indicators.

ISO (Isolated Power)

ISO is a straightforward stat that tells you a hitter’s raw power and ability to hit for extra bases. It’s particularly useful when building GPP lineups, as it helps identify players with significant home run upside.

Example:

• Player A: 10 ABs, 4 H, 4 Singles, 0 HR

• Player B: 10 ABs, 1 H, 0 Singles, 1 HR

• Player A: .400 batting average, .400 slugging percentage, ISO of .000

• Player B: .100 batting average, .400 slugging percentage, ISO of .300

In this case, Player A has solid batting stats but lacks power, making him more suitable for cash games. Player B, with a much higher ISO, presents more upside for GPPs due to his potential for extra-base hits, especially home runs.

• Elite ISO: .250+

• Average ISO: Around .140

• Poor ISO: .100 or below

Splits vs. RHPs/LHPs

It's well known that right-handed batters (RHBs) often struggle against right-handed pitchers (RHPs), and similarly, left-handed batters (LHBs) may have trouble against left-handed pitchers (LHPs). This is due to how batters tend to read pitches breaking toward them from the inside part of the plate. However, some players defy this trend and exhibit reverse splits, where they perform better against pitchers of the same handedness.

Switch hitters often hit better from one side of the plate, and understanding these splits is crucial when determining matchups. When team stacking, it’s common to focus on one side of the plate if the split advantage is high enough to warrant it. The one risk here is that the starting pitcher could get pulled early, and you may face unfavorable bullpen matchups later in the game. However, if your team stack led to the pitcher’s early exit, that risk is minimized.

Home/Road Splits

Just as certain pitchers may have significant home/road splits, so too can hitters. While park factor is a big reason for these splits, many hitters still show stronger splits at home, even if they play in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Understanding how a hitter performs in different environments can be key when making DFS decisions.

OPS (On-Base Plus Slugging)

OPS combines a player’s On-Base Percentage (OBP) and Slugging Percentage (SLG) into a single metric that measures overall offensive performance. It’s an excellent all-in-one stat because it reflects both a hitter’s ability to get on base and hit for power.

• OBP: How often a batter reaches base (including walks, hit-by-pitches, and hits).

• SLG: Measures a batter’s power by calculating total bases per at-bat.

OPS is typically used as a quick, comprehensive gauge for a hitter’s offensive value. A player with a high OPS is performing well in both areas, while a low OPS indicates struggles in one or both.

• Elite OPS: .900+

• Above Average OPS: .800+

• Average OPS: Around .750

• Poor OPS: Below .700

If you think back to your school days when having your assignments graded, you can sort of transfer the 0-to-100 A/B/C/D/F grading scale to OPS “grades”. A 1.000 OPS (or a 100 on a test) grades out as an A+ (and anything above a 1.000 OPS is A+++ territory). An .850 OPS (or 85 test grade) is a solid B. Below a .700 OPS and you’re getting a D or F.

Secondary Batting Stats & Info

While the following stats are not referenced as often in daily newsletters, they still provide valuable insights into specific slates and can help deepen your analysis.

HardHit% (Hard-hit Rate)

HardHit% is a key stat I often refer to, as it helps assess a hitter’s power. It’s similar to ISO but calculated differently. A baseball is considered a "hard-hit" ball when its exit velocity exceeds 95 MPH—a threshold proven to significantly boost a hitter's batting average and extra-base hit potential. Historically, hard-hit balls have a .500+ batting average and .600+ wOBA.

• Elite HardHit%: Above 50%

• Average HardHit%: Around 40%

• Poor HardHit%: Below 30%

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play)

BABIP measures how often a ball in play results in a hit, excluding home runs, walks, strikeouts, etc. The league average BABIP is typically around .300, but a player’s personal BABIP can fluctuate based on factors like luck, defense, and hitting skill.

Example: If a player’s career BABIP is .330 but they start the season with a .270 BABIP, it’s likely a sign that the player is either getting unlucky or facing tough defenses, and they should regress back to their career average over time.

• Elite BABIP: .350+

• Average BABIP: Around .300

• Poor BABIP: Around .260 or below

Opposing Bullpen Strength

In MLB DFS, opposing bullpen strength is often overlooked when evaluating matchups, but it’s a key factor to consider when building your lineups. While most DFS players focus on the starting pitchers when locating preferred hitters and stacks, it’s important to remember that after the starter exits, a significant portion of a game is still played against the bullpen—often accounting for a third or more of a team’s total at-bats.

• Weak Bullpens: If a team’s bullpen is struggling, hitters may have several opportunities to face subpar pitching after the starting pitcher exits. This can lead to additional chances for late-game offense, which is especially valuable in stacking scenarios.

• Strong Bullpens: Conversely, teams with strong bullpens can stifle opposing offenses, limiting the damage caused by hitters in the later innings. If you're stacking a team, it's worth considering how the bullpen might affect the outcome of your stack.

Key Considerations:

• Pitching Strategy: Teams without a traditional five-man rotation may use an “opener + bullpen” strategy, where a starter pitches just 1-2 innings, followed by a series of relievers. In this scenario, righty/lefty splits might become less relevant, and your focus should shift to the bullpen's overall effectiveness.

• Impact on Batters: For hitters, facing a weak bullpen after the starter is removed can create a valuable window for scoring. If the starting pitcher is expected to leave early or struggle, a lineup may face multiple innings against a subpar bullpen, which opens the door for higher potential fantasy points.

• Bullpen Usage: Keep an eye on a bullpen’s recent workload. A tired bullpen may be more prone to giving up runs, while a rested bullpen can be more effective in neutralizing hitters.

Example:
If a team is projected to face a starting pitcher with average/above average stuff but is backed up by a weak bullpen, a team stack could be an intriguing GPP option, especially if the starter exits early. On the other hand, facing a team with a dominant bullpen might signal that it’s better to target hitters with high walk rates or strong splits against bullpen pitchers.

By factoring in bullpen strength, you can adjust your strategies accordingly, especially in GPPs, where stacking against a weak bullpen or exploiting bullpen matchups can lead to low-owned, high-ceiling plays.

If you’ve made it through the whole article, thanks for sticking with me! Hopefully, I didn’t put too many of you to sleep by blabbering on about all these stats and strategies. But I wouldn’t include all of this if I didn’t believe it could genuinely be helpful.

To sum it up, there’s a lot of information out there, and even more ways to use the various metrics and stats in baseball. With so much to digest, it’s easy for it all to feel overwhelming. But don’t let that stress you out, especially if you’re new to the sport. At the end of the day, baseball is a game of luck and volatility, and no single approach is a surefire way to win money. All we can do is use the tools and info available to try and gain an edge over the competition.

With that said, I wish everyone the best of luck this season! Let’s have some fun out there!