Top MLB DFS Plays & Props 9/8 | Quick Hits for Monday's Heavy West Coast Slate! ⚾

Monday, September 8th ⚾️ DFS Plays & Props for Today's MLB Action

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Nothing wrong with a nice Monday eight-game main slate! This is one of the more uniquely laid-out slates that I believe we’ve seen this season. It’s a very West Coast-heavy slate with only two games (CHC at ATL, MIL at TEX) getting underway before 9:38 ET. As such, weather is not an issue, so that’s one less thing to worry about today. I’m running a little behind schedule and will be putting together the NFL MNF showdown newsletter after this, so we’ll keep things very simplified and abbreviated today. But there is still money to be made, so let’s try to find the right pieces to the puzzle. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣9/8 Dinger Report💣

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

  • CHC at ATL (7:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): Light winds a bit left-to-right, mostly OUT to right, at 5-10 mph.

  • BOS at ATH (10:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): 10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.5k | vs. STL

A hot-hitting Rays team roughed up Woo in his last time out, but this is a great bounce-back spot. The Cardinals’ offense has been pretty anemic of late, particularly against RHPs. Against RHPs L2Weeks, they’ve posted a .206 AVG, .618 OPS, 74 wRC+, and a hefty 27.5% kRate, which is the 4th highest in MLB during that span. Meanwhile, Woo has been at his best at home (+23.5% more FPPG) in the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park (#2 most pitcher-friendly ballpark), where he owns a 2.35 ERA, .177 opp AVG, 0.83 WHIP, and 26.4% kRate this season.

 

Luis Morales (RHP), ATH | DK: $8k, FD: $9.8k | vs. BOS

Bit of a speculative spotlight here as the 22-year-old Luis Morales only has 28.1 IP under his belt at the MLB level. But he has shown exactly why he is rated as the #4 prospect in the A’s farm system (via FanGraphs). Since entering the rotation on August 11th (5 GS, 26.1 IP), Morales has impressed with a 1.37 ERA, 3.57 xFIP, .152 opp AVG, 0.91 WHIP, and 29.4% kRate. Looking at his statcast data, he’s certainly due for some regression, and it’s wild that he has a near-30% kRate with only a 9.3% SwStr%. But here’s to hoping the regression monster stays away for one more outing.

Based on the 100 wRC+ rating against RHPs L2Weeks, the Red Sox have been precisely league average offensively. But they’ve also been striking out regularly, with a 24.6% kRate in that span. The weather is once again solid for hitting out in West Sacramento this evening, and Morales has a tough counterpart on the other side with LHP Garrett Crochet on the bump for Boston. But you have to like the sort of upside that Morales has flashed so far.

 

Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.4k | at LAA

The results have been more bad than good for SWR lately, but he did have a decent showing in his most recent outing against the White Sox (5.0 IP, 2 H, 3 BB, 2 ER, 7 K) and, if we’re dumpster diving for an SP today, he makes as much sense as anyone. He’ll face a very righty-heavy Angels team that heads in with a .180 AVG (worst in MLB) and 29.6% kRate (highest in MLB) against RHPs L2Weeks. Woods Richardson does have mostly traditional splits -- while he has allowed more power to the right side of the plate, his .315 opp wOBA vs. RHBs is notably lower than the .353 opp wOBA allowed to LHBs. His kRate also sits at a decent 21.5% vs. RHBs, which is a few points higher than his 18.0% kRate vs. LHBs. It’s still a risky play, but this could be one of SWR’s better showings in recent weeks/months.

 

Other Pitchers to Consider

Garrett Crochet (LHP), BOS | DK: $11k, FD: $10.8k | ar ATH

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $10k, FD: $10.6k | vs. ARI

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.3k | vs. COL *(Not yet confirmed as the starter)

Yu Darvish (RHP), SD | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.7k | vs. CIN

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chase Dollander (RHP), COL

Admittedly, I’m not thrilled with the prospects of a chalky Dodgers stack, as they haven’t been overly dangerous at the plate across the last several weeks. But… some of the key bats are beginning to wake back up, and they should be getting Max Muncy back off the IL today while Will Smith also has a chance to suit up following a four-game injury absence. LAD easily leads this slate with a 5.6 implied run total. The Dodgers have also amassed 10 ER across 9.1 innings against Chase Dollander this season -- though both previous meetings were at Coors Field. Despite some recent struggles, the Dodgers remain the #1 home offense in MLB, averaging 5.58 runs/gm in LA. And getting some innings against the Rockies' bullpen is often a bonus as well. Over the L2Weeks, the Rockies’ bullpen owns a 5.65 ERA, 4.80 xFIP, 1.61 WHIP, .289 opp AVG, and 2.32 HR/9 Rate.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman

Bargain Bat: Max Muncy

 

Seattle Mariners vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

Miles Mikolas has been a disaster on the road this season (38.2% less FPPG away) and, across his last seven road starts, he has struggled to a 10.31 ERA, 1.99 WHIP, .384 opp AVG, .513 opp wOBA, 16.4% kRate, and 4.90 HR/9 Rate… yikes! In 80 PAs versus Mikolas, the current Mariners’ roster owns a .365 AVG, .437 wOBA, and 16.3% kRate. This is not a good hitter’s park, but the Mariners have still shown some solid pop at home this season. They’ve also posted the 2nd highest ISO (.232) and 5th best wRC+ (128) against RHPs L2Weeks. Let’s just hope they didn’t waste all of their firepower in that 18-2 beating of my Braves yesterday!

Favorite SEA Bats: Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Eugenio Suarez

Bargain Bat: Jorge Polanco

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cincinnati Reds vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

Every hitter in the projected Reds lineup has a ≤ 10% pOwn%. The Reds lineup as a whole has not been great, but this is a nice spot for some leverage against Yu Darvish, who looks to be fairly chalky… at least on DraftKings, where he owns a 28% pOwn%. The Reds are also closer to the middle of the pack with a 95 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks (ranks 18th), and their .174 ISO in that span sits at 12th in MLB. So, while they’re not getting a ton of hits, they are getting extra base hits at a higher rate than most teams. Against RHPs in that recent two-week span, they’ve snagged 16 doubles, two triples, and 11 HRs. As usual with these “low-owned stacks that just might work out,” you don’t need to roll out a full four or five-man stack. Even a small two or three-man Cincy stack provides plenty of leverage and lineup variance in GPPs. Most of these bats are pretty cheap, too, which frees you up to go for pricey pitching and/or a more premium stack or group of hitters.

Favorite CIN Bats: Noelvi Marte, Austin Hays, Elly De La Cruz

Bargain Bat: TJ Friedl

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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