Top MLB DFS Plays & Props 9/5 | Prepping for a Balanced Friday Slate! ⚾

Friday, September 5th ⚾️ DFS Plays & Props for Today's MLB Action

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Eleven games and 22 teams reside on the Friday main slate! At first glance, it looks like a run-of-the-mill Friday slate with ample pitching and viable hitters/stacks to select from. There are no significant weather concerns outside of some potential non-postponement-threatening rain in one or two spots. No time to waste, so let’s get right down to brass tacks. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣9/5 Dinger Report💣

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

  • LAD at BAL (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): Low-80s with 5-10 mph winds OUT to left/center.

  • SEA at ATL (7:15 ET, 7.5 O/U): A few low-coverage storms in the area, which equates to low-end delay risk. Not a major concern.

  • CLE at TB (7:35 ET, 7.5 O/U): Probably the one game to keep the closest eye on, weather-wise. A group of storms will be in the general area around game time, which could cause some problems and spark a delay. It’s clear later in the evening, so the game will play one way or another. But check the pre-game radar for a better idea of how things will shake out.

  • MIN at KC (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Very low chance of a few raindrops. Cool temps with 5-10 mph winds OUT to right.

  • SF at STL (8:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): Rain will be around, but it seems like it should mostly hold south of the ballpark. Still, maybe some sprinkles or light rain that they could presumably just play through. Upper-60s temps with 5-10 mph winds OUT to right.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.4k | vs. SEA

Sale returned from a 10-week absence (ribs) last Saturday to pitch against the Phillies, and he looked like his usual dominant self. He needed just 78 pitches to log a quality start, allowing just one run on three hits and a walk while striking out nine. He generated 15 whiffs (19.2% SwStr%) and a dominant 38.5% CSW%. Dating back to April 19th (12 GS, 76.1 IP), Sale has allowed two runs or fewer in all 12 outings while recording a 1.41 ERA, 3.02 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, and 32.7% kRate. Excellent stuff.

Sale will face off with a Mariners team that has its fair share of sluggers in the lineup. However, Seattle has not found much success against LHPs over the last month (341 PAs). In that span, they’re hitting for only a .215 AVG (ranks 27th), .657 OPS (26th), 87 wRC+ (24th), and a huge 28.4% kRate (2nd highest). Sale also owns a massive 43.3% kRate, .153 opp AVG, and .214 opp wOBA in 67 PAs versus the current Mariners roster. As long as he builds up to around 85-90 pitches tonight, he’s in line for another elite showing.

 

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.8k | at BAL

Glasnow has not posted many ceiling-type performances this season, but he has been good-to-great in 10 of his 14 starts. He has put up a sharp 29.0% kRate on the season, which is on par with his 28.1% kRate over his last five starts -- Glasnow has gone up against some low-strikeout teams in that recent stretch as well, like the Blue Jays and Padres (twice). Glasnow has excelled at limiting hard contact lately, and, over the last month, he’s in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity (83.6 mph).

The Orioles have been a fairly average offense versus RHPs lately (108 wRC+ L2Weeks, ranks 14th), and they’ve been striking out at a high 27.0% clip. Weather conditions will be beneficial for hitters in Baltimore this evening, but Glasnow is still in a solid spot to rack up plenty of Ks, and I’d expect a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) out of him as well.

 

Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.2k | vs. ATH

It feels like a good slate to pay up for pitching, but Jose Soriano makes sense if you’re saving salary at the SP position. He has been great since the All-Star Break -- in those previous eight starts (48.1 IP), Soriano has pitched to a 3.17 ERA, 2.80 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, .203 opp AVG, 24.1% kRate, and an extremely high 66.2% GroundBall%. Soriano is one of the better groundball pitchers in the game, but he has taken it up a notch lately, and that 2.80 xFIP is an outstanding number.

Soriano has found limited success versus this A’s lineup, but he did explode for a 12 K performance against them back on June 10th, where he allowed a single run across 7.0 IP. The A’s also have a subpar 93 wRC+ and higher-than-average 22.7% kRate against RHPs L2Weeks, and they’ve posted the fourth-highest groundball rate in that span as well, which plays into Soriano’s skillset as a groundball pitcher. This matchup still isn’t what I’d consider to be a great one for Soriano, but, given the way he has pitched in the second half, he’s just a bit too cheap today.

 

Other Pitchers to Consider

Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.2k | at MIA

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.3k | at ATL

Payton Tolle (LHP), BOS | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.3k | at ARI

Ian Seymour (LHP), TB | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.4k | vs. CLE (Probable long reliever) (Also, monitor weather)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), SD

 

Non-Coors Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

Kremer has his good moments, but he is coming off back-to-back outings where he gave up seven runs and owns a 5.85 ERA and 1.60 HR/9 Rate over his last seven outings. He throws some form of the fastball (four-seamer, cutter, sinker) on nearly 70% of his pitches. The Dodgers have been a pretty middling offense against RHPs lately, but they have crushed RHP fastballs this season to the tune of a .273 AVG, .358 wOBA, .190 ISO, and 45.9% HardHit%. Also, if we exclude Coors Field being Coors Field, the hitting conditions in Baltimore are arguably the best on the slate (warm temps with 5-10 mph winds blowing out to left/center).

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman

Bargain Bats: Andy Pages, Dalton Rushing, Miguel Rojas

 

Philadelphia Phillies (LHBs Preferred) vs. Valente Bellozo (RHP), MIA

Bellozo has made 22 of his 27 appearances this season out of the bullpen, but will receive his first start since May 13th. The results haven’t been all too great. His 3.91 ERA isn’t awful, but that is backed up by a slate-worst 5.33 xFIP, and he allows a ton of flyballs (50.9% FlyBall%). Bellozo has primarily struggled against LHBs. Against the left side of the plate, he has posted a .321 opp AVG, .393 opp wOBA, .204 opp ISO, 6.03 ERA, and 5.50 xFIP. You don’t have to nix the top Phillies RHBs out of consideration, specifically Trea Turner, but the LHBs no doubt get a bump today.

Bellozo will be backed by a Marlins bullpen that has put up a 6.11 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and 2.21 HR/9 Rate L2Weeks. The Phillies have been a top-10 offense against RHPs, and own an .802 OPS and 120 wRC+ against RHPs over the last month.

Favorite PHI Bats: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner

Bargain Bat: Brandon Marsh

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

Every hitter in the projected Rays lineup has a < 8% pOwn%. The Rays have been killing RHPs L2Weeks, posting a .311 AVG (ranks 2nd), .896 OPS (3rd), .377 wOBA (4th), .236 ISO (2nd), 141 wRC+ (4th), and 23.2% HR/FB Rate (1st). Gavin Williams has put forth some quality outings recently, but he is also no stranger to getting blown up, especially on the road (averages 43.1% less FPPG away). Williams’ statcast data from the last month could also be a precursor to a bad outing against a hot-hitting Rays offense tonight. Over the last month, Williams has allowed a high 35.1% LineDrive%, 41.9% HardContact%, 92.5 mph average exit velo (bottom 10th percentile), and nine barreled balls (bottom 10th percentile). The Guardians’ bullpen has been pretty solid, but if Tampa Bay gets things rolling early against Williams, they shouldn’t be going up against the top relievers.

Favorite TB Bats: Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe

Bargain Bat: Jake Mangum

I’m short on time today, so no one-off or bargain bat lists. My apologies!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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