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- Top MLB DFS Plays & Props 9/3 | Anticipating a High-Scoring Wednesday Slate! ⚾
Top MLB DFS Plays & Props 9/3 | Anticipating a High-Scoring Wednesday Slate! ⚾
Wednesday, September 3rd ⚾️ DFS Plays & Props for Today's MLB Action
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Main Slate Rundown 🏟
A solid eight-game Wednesday MLB main slate hits the docket! Pitching on this slate is lacking in overall talent, so, at first glance, it would seem that we’ll have a high-scoring evening of baseball on our hands. A few ballparks might see some pesky rain situations, but, at the time of this writing, any postponements would be a significant surprise. Time to dive right in! Best of luck!
Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:


💣9/3 Dinger Report💣

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️
Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.
SEA at TB (7:35 ET, 8.5 O/U): A few storms will be around, so there will be some low-end delay risk here, nothing more.
LAA at KC (7:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): Storms popping in the general area. If one makes its way over the ballpark, a delay may be needed. No real PPD risk.
ATL at CHC (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Rain will be around in the afternoon and into the early evening. We may see a late start here, but once they get going, no further problems are expected. Mid-60s temps with 10-15 mph winds, but they’ll mostly be blowing left-to-right across the field.
CWS at MIN (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Cooler temps around 60 degrees with 10 mph winds OUT to right.
ATH at STL (7:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): Similar forecast as KC. Storms will be popping around the general area, so we’ll go with a “chance for a delay” here as well. But, again, a postponement is not a major risk.
Pitchers to Consider ⚾
George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.1k | at TB
Reminder: Monitor weather here.
Again, pitching is pretty rough on this slate, and George Kirby will check in as the most expensive arm on the board. After a turbulent start to his season, Kirby has been generally good over the last two-plus months. Since June 30th (11 GS, 66.0 IP), Kirby has pitched to a 3.14 ERA, 3.41 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, .224 opp AVG, 0.70 HR/9 Rate, 24.9% kRate, and 6.3% BB%. Good-to-great results across the board. Every start in that stretch hasn’t been sharp, but most have.
The Rays can be a tricky matchup, but their results against RHPs over the last month have been quite average -- .243 AVG (ranks 18th), .748 OPS (13th), .322 wOBA (16th), .202 ISO (6th), 104 wRC+ (15th), and 24.2% kRate (8th highest). So, this lineup has displayed plenty of power, but they’ve been mid-pack everywhere else with a high strikeout rate. I don’t see this as a spot where Kirby breaks through for a ceiling game, but I would expect a “pretty good” outing. With a lack of high-end pitching, a “pretty good” Kirby performance may be enough for him to crack the optimal lineup.

Zebby Matthews (RHP), MIN | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.3k | vs. CWS
Matthews leads all pitchers on this slate with a 27.0% kRate and a 106 Stuff+ Rating. His 5.06 ERA looks rough on paper, but he has pitched better than that ERA would indicate with a quality 3.41 xFIP backing it up. Matthews has also been more reliable at home, where he owns a 4.07 ERA (vs. 5.77 ERA on the road) to go alongside a very strong 3.13 xFIP and a serviceable 1.32 WHIP (vs. 1.60 WHIP on the road). Matthews has also only allowed two home runs at home this season (0.74 HR/9 Rate) versus seven home runs allowed on the road (1.83 HR/9 Rate).
The White Sox offense has made quite a few splashes on slates since the All-Star Break. However, they have been regressing against RHPs; over the last two weeks, versus RHPs, they have posted a subpar .709 OPS, 97 wRC+, and 23.1% kRate. I wouldn’t look for six or seven shutout innings from Matthews, but a strong case could be made that Matthews has the highest strikeout upside among all SPs on this slate.
Ryan Bergert (RHP), KC | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.1k | vs. LAA
Reminder: Monitor weather here.
Bergert has put together a respectable rookie campaign, pitching to a 2.67 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 22.5% kRate across his 64.0 IP. He has been particularly sharp over his previous four starts, pitching to a 2.38 ERA, 3.93 xFIP, .218 opp AVG, 1.10 WHIP, 24.7% kRate, and 6.5% BB%. He has given up some homers in that stretch (1.60 HR/9 Rate), but he has also increased his strikeout rate and has limited walks. Bergert does own some concerning statcast data over the last month, hinting at the fact that he may be due for a blow-up outing. However, in this matchup, he may be able to skate by the regression monster for at least one more game.
The Angels' offense has been pretty awful against righties lately. Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Angels are either dead last, or second-to-last, in AVG (.174), OPS (.575), wOBA (.257), wRC+ (60), and kRate (28.2%). Against Bergert’s primary pitch mix (four-seamer, slider, sweeper) this season, the Angels also have the second-highest strikeout rate (28.6%) and Whiff% (29.2%). I’d expect five or six quality innings from Bergert tonight with 6+ Ks along the way.
Other Pitchers to Consider
Cade Horton (RHP), CHC | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.3k | vs. ATL (Monitor weather)
Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.7k | at STL (Monitor weather)
Jose Quintana (LHP), MIL | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.3k | vs. PHI
Team Stacks to Target 🎯
Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.
Obligatory Coors Field Stacks
San Francisco Giants vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL
Colorado Rockies vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF
Non-Coors Stacks
Kansas City Royals vs. Caden Dana (RHP), LAA
Caden Dana is a highly-rated prospect -- #2 in the Angels’ farm system and #78 overall MLB prospect (via FanGraphs). However, he has not found success in his brief MLB career: 16.1 IP, 8.82 ERA, 5.88 xFIP, 2.02 WHIP, 3.86 HR/9 Rate, 17.3% kRate, and 14.8% BB%. In a more significant sample size down in Triple-A this season (18 GS, 82.0 IP), Dana has also struggled, pitching to a 5.93 ERA, 5.72 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, 1.54 HR/9 Rate, 23.0% kRate, and 12.4% BB%. Certainly better than his MLB numbers, as to be expected, but Dana has still had issues with walks and home runs down in the minor leagues. Dana will be backed by an Angels bullpen that has been pretty mediocre lately and owns the 6th-worst xFIP (4.69) over the last two weeks.
The Royals are not a consistently strong offense, but they have ranked out well against righties over the last month -- .269 AVG (5th), .800 OPS (6th), .346 wOBA (6th), .189 ISO (10th), 119 wRC+ (8th), and 17.0% kRate (lowest in MLB). They also get young slugger Jac Caglianone back in the mix for the first time since July 26th, which adds a bit more pop to the lineup.
Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia
Bargain Bats: Mike Yastrzemski, Jac Caglianone

Athletics vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL
The A’s stunk it up yesterday, but we’ll go back to the well once more because, as we all know by now, there is ample upside within this lineup. The A’s have also mashed lefties lately -- against LHPs over the last month, they’re hitting .282 with an .891 OPS, .378 wOBA, .248 ISO, 140 wRC+, and 21.4% HR/FB Rate.
That high HR/FB Rate for the A’s is particularly notable in this matchup. Matthew Liberatore has allowed a huge 52.7% FlyBall% over the last month. Liberatore also just hasn’t been great for a hot minute. Spanning his last eight starts, he has accounted for a 6.09 ERA, 5.37 xFIP, 1.71 WHIP, .319 opp AVG, .399 opp wOBA, 2.10 HR/9 Rate, and 13.8% kRate. Terrible stuff. The Cardinals’ bullpen has been pretty decent lately, but if the A’s manage to pile on the damage on Liberatore early, St. Louis won’t deploy their top relievers.
Favorite ATH Bats: Shea Langeliers, Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker
Bargain Bats: Jacob Wilson, Colby Thomas
Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI
Every hitter in the projected Brewers’ lineup has a < 9% pOwn%. They have ranked 6th or better against RHPs over the previous month in AVG (.268), OPS (.822), wOBA (.354), ISO (.210), wRC+ (129), and kRate (19.0%). The Brew Crew has also easily been the #1 road offense in baseball this season, averaging a healthy 5.59 runs/gm.
Aaron Nola has also not been pitching like his usual self. Over his last five starts, he has pitched to a 9.78 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, .340 opp AVG, .428 opp wOBA, and 3.10 HR/9 Rate. There was a three-month-long injury layoff sandwiched in the middle of those five starts as Nola recovered from an ankle sprain, but he still hasn’t looked overly sharp in his three outings since returning from the IL. The Phillies’ bullpen also heads in with a 4.85 ERA and 1.51 WHIP L2Weeks so they’re not heading into this game in the best form either.
Favorite MIL Bats: Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, William Contreras
Bargain Bats: Isaac Collins, Caleb Durbin, Sal Frelick
One-Off Bats ☝️
A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.
SS Trea Turner, PHI vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), MIL
SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Caden Dana (RHP), LAA
OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Yoendrys Gomez (RHP), CWS
1B Rafael Devers, SF vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL
2B Jazz Chisholm Jr., NYY vs. Jacon Alexander (RHP), HOU
C Shea Langeliers, ATH vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL
OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), TB
1B Yandy Diaz, TB vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA
C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF
1B Matt Olson, ATL vs. Cade Horton (RHP), CHC
OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. Will Warren (RHP), NYY
C Ivan Herrera, STL vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH
SS Zach Neto, LAA vs. Ryan Bergert (RHP), KC
2B Brice Turang, MIL vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI
SS Colson Montgomery, CWS vs. Zebby Matthews (RHP), MIN
1B Michael Busch, CHC vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

Bargain Bats 💸
Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.
2B Ozzie Albies, ATL vs. Cade Horton (RHP), CHC
OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL
SS Jacob Wilson, ATH vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL
C Drake Baldwin, ATL vs. Cade Horton (RHP), CHC
OF Mike Yastrzemski, KC vs. Caden Dana (RHP), LAA
OF Matt Wallner, MIN vs. Yoendrys Gomez (RHP), CWS
OF Isaac Collins, MIL vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI
2B Nico Hoerner, CHC vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL
OF Jo Adell, LAA vs. Ryan Bergert (RHP), KC
3B Caleb Durbin, MIL vs. Aaron Nola (RHP), PHI
OF Colby Thomas, ATH vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL
OF Luis Matos, SF vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL
OF Trevor Larnach, MIN vs. Yoendrys Gomez (RHP), CWS
OF Ian Happ, CHC vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL
C Pedro Pages, STL vs. Jeffrey Springer (LHP), ATH
OF Jac Caglianone, KC vs. Caleb Dana (RHP), LAA

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