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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We are down to five days remaining in the MLB regular season! A nine-game main slate will reside on the Wednesday docket. As a late-season reminder, keep an eye out for some surprise absences, primarily for teams that have nothing left to play for or no way to improve their playoff seeding. But, for the most part, teams are going to be rolling out their typical starters. Alright, let’s jump in and get down to business! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣9/24 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• CWS at NYY (7:05 ET, 8.0 O/U): Light rain is possible here, but they can probably play through it. Barring an unexpected heavier downpour being in the mix, a delay isn’t overly likely—low-70s temps with light 5 mph winds IN from right.

• NYM at CHC (8:05 ET, 7.0 O/U): 10 mph winds IN from left at the most wind-sensitive MLB ballpark.

• STL at SF (9:45 ET, 7.5 O/U): A rare case where some rain may come into the picture in San Fran. Low-to-moderate chance of a delay.

• HOU at ATH (10:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): A chance for rain in Sacramento as well, though, less coverage than in SF. Temps around 80 degrees at first pitch with 5-10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Fried (LHP), NYY | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.1k | vs. CWS

Reminder: Monitor weather here.

A trio of lefty aces headline today’s slate, but it will be Max Fried who lands in arguably the best spot. After a brief slump in early August, Fried has been back to looking like his usual elite self, and, across his previous six starts, he has procured a 1.60 ERA, 2.79 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 26.1% kRate, and he has allowed only one home run in that stretch (0.20 HR/9 Rate). Over the last month, Fried has forced a 58.1% GroundBall% and ranks in the 95th percentile in average batted ball distance (107.7 feet).

Against LHPs L2Weeks, the White Sox have managed just a .061 ISO next to a 76 wRC+ and 23.9% kRate. There just is not much power in this lineup, and, unless they dink and dunk a string of base hits, it’s highly doubtful they “get to” Max Fried today. The Yankees (-387 ML) are also monstrous favorites today… you don’t see a near -400 ML favorite in the MLB very often.

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.6k | vs. COL

Castillo will be a popular target today, but he has been rounding back into form lately and draws arguably the best matchup possible at home in the pitching paradise that is T-Mobile Park. Over his last three outings, Castillo has pitched to a 1.00 ERA, 3.88 xFIP, .161 opp AVG, 0.67 WHIP, 21.9% kRate, and 3.1% BB%. The near-4 xFIP signifies that he is due for some regression, but it’s not an awful figure, and that regression is pretty likely to stay under wraps for at least one more game, given the matchup. Castillo has also posted +24.6% more FPPG when pitching at home (T-Mobile Park: #2 most pitcher-friendly ballpark).

The Rockies’ offensive numbers when facing RHPs on the road over the last month are truly terrible: .180 AVG, .512 OPS, .227 wOBA, .106 ISO, 41 wRC+, and 33.3% kRate. When a team’s OPS starts with a five and your wOBA is looking like a bad batting average, that’s just no good. A sub-50 wRC+ also shows that the “Road Rockies” have been producing at a level *less than half* that of a league-average offense. The Mariners (-308 ML) have punched their ticket into the postseason, but now they’ll be aiming to lock up the AL West division, currently one game up on the Astros. So, there is still plenty of motivation for this team with just a few games remaining before the playoffs arrive.

Jonah Tong (RHP), NYM | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.5k | at CHC

The Mets had a crucial comeback win last night and are going to continue to attempt to claw their way into a postseason berth, currently sitting one game above the Reds and D-Backs in the NL Wild Card race. It will be up to rookie RHP Jonah Tong to help get them there. Tong is a highly-regarded prospect -- #2 in the Mets system and the #51 overall prospect in MLB (per FanGraphs). He’ll be making just his fifth big league start tonight, but, if we exclude his blow-up outing against Texas, we’ll see some exceptional results in his other three starts: 2.81 ERA, 3.02 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP, 31.3% kRate, and 6.3% BB%. It is a small sample size, but you have to like the strikeout upside that Tong brings to the table at these low-end price points. He rocked a massive 40.5% kRate across 113.2 IP in the minor leagues this year, so the high kRate is no fluke. Home runs will also be difficult to come by at Wrigley Field this evening -- as often stated, this ballpark is extremely sensitive to wind impacts, and there will be 10 mph winds blowing in from left field this evening. As such, this game carries a slate-low 7.0 over/under.

Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Cubs have hit for a lackluster .232 AVG and .702 OPS while posting a just-below-league-average 98 wRC+. Their 22.5% kRate is also a hair higher than league-average. They’re still playing without their best hitter, Kyle Tucker, and many of these Cubs bats (e.g., Pete Crow-Armstrong and Carson Kelly) have regressed in recent weeks/months. As long as he doesn’t cave in to the pressure, Tong makes for a sensible value SP target today.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Blake Snell (LHP), LAD | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.4k | at ARI

Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.2k | at ATH (Monitor weather)

Sonny Gray (RHP), STL | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.2k | at SF (Monitor weather)

Stephen Kolek (RHP), KC | DK: $7k, FD: $7.8k | at LAA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees vs. Fraser Ellard (LHP) + CWS Bullpen

It’s looking like a bullpen game for the White Sox with Fraser Ellard (4.50 ERA, 5.42 xERA, 1.50 WHIP, 23.5% BB%) set to serve as the opener. LHP Tyler Alexander (5.13 ERA, 4.67 xERA, 1.43 WHIP) is a candidate to follow Ellard and pitch multiple innings, but that is not confirmed at this time.

The Yankees have clinched a playoff berth, but they are one game back from the Blue Jays in the AL East divisional race, so there is a motivational factor in that regard. Over the last month, the Yankees rank 4th or better in OPS (.800), wOBA (.344), ISO (.207), and wRC+ (123). They’ve mashed an MLB-leading 48 HRs in that span. Bullpen games can be tricky since hitters will see more pitchers than usual in the same game, but, as long as that doesn’t trip them up, the Yankees look like a great stack target today.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Ben Rice

Bargain Bat: Anthony Volpe

Seattle Mariners vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP), COL

In a surprise twist, McCade Brown and the Rockies bullpen held the Mariners’ offense in check last night, but I’m willing to go back to the well. The Mariners did squeeze out the 4-3 victory last night, which clinched their postseason ticket. But another win tonight will lock up the AL West. Cal Raleigh (58 HRs) is also inching closer to the 60 HR mark. So I believe we’ll see some inspired performances from this Mariners squad this evening, as long as they took it easy on the champagne last night.

Across his 14 starts, Tanner Gordon has supplied a 6.00 ERA, 5.51 xERA, 1.46 WHIP, 18.6% kRate, and he owns a slate-worst 84 Stuff+ rating. Over the last month, Gordon has ranked in the bottom 5th percentile in barreled balls (11) and average distance (220.2 feet), along with plenty of other poor statcast results. The Mariners check in at 6th with a 130 wRC+ versus RHPs L2Weeks, so look for more production from this lineup tonight.

Favorite SEA Bats: Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor

Bargain Bats: Dominic Canzone, JP Crawford, Jorge Polanco

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

St. Louis Cardinals vs. JT Brubaker (RHP) + SF Bullpen

Every hitter in the projected Cardinals lineup has a < 10% pOwn%. LHP Robbie Ray was originally scheduled to start tonight, but, with playoffs out of reach, the Giants have elected to shut him down for the season. That leads to JT Brubaker earning his first start of the season. Brubaker, who owns a 3.65 ERA, 4.70 xFIP, and 18.0% kRate out of the bullpen this year, can typically cover multiple innings, so we can expect him to be out there for the first three-ish innings tonight before other SF relievers step onto the mound. The Giants’ bullpen has not pitched well lately, posting a 5.70 ERA, an MLB-worst 5.16 xFIP, 1.60 WHIP, and 14.8% kRate over the last two weeks.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been a sneaky-strong offense recently. Over the last week, they’ve put up a .280 AVG (ranks 4th), .803 OPS (6th), .349 wOBA (4th), 126 wRC+ (5th), and 19.4% kRate (7th-lowest). From a leverage standpoint, some of these St. Louis bats will make plenty of sense, and they won’t break the bank either.

Favorite STL Bats: Ivam Herrera, Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan

Bargain Bat: Thomas Saggese

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!