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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

The final regular season Tuesday slate arrives with 11 games on the main slate ticket! Fortunately, the MLB doesn’t typically follow the same antics as the NBA at this point in the season, concerning teams rolling out very watered-down lineups. That said, do stay a little extra vigilant on monitoring confirmed lineups and potential late scratches, as some players may still get the day off if they’re on a team that is either eliminated from the postseason or if their team is locked into their playoff spot. There is still plenty at stake for a lot of teams right now, with some divisions and wild-card berths still being up for grabs. So it should be an exciting final few days as this MLB season comes to a close! Let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Quick Note: I’ve been dealing with some power/internet outages in my area today, so this will be an abbreviated MLB newsletter due to getting a late jump on things!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣9/23 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• CWS at NYY (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): A batch of rain looks to move through the area this evening. It doesn’t look heavy or widespread enough to lead to a washout, but a late start or in-game delay is a possibility.

• NYM at CHC (7:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): There is a large line of storms around, but they should hold south of Chicago. But it will be worth keeping an eye on closer to first pitch in case the weather shifts north. Winds IN from left at 10 mph, which is a plus for pitchers at the very wind-sensitive Wrigley Field!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.8k | vs. STL

The ceiling games have been a little sparse for Webb throughout this season, but he has typically been a strong floor option. He has pitched to a strong 3.18 ERA, 2.72 xFIP, and 26.0% kRate at home this season (Oracle Park: #10 most pitcher-friendly ballpark) and, over the last month, Webb is in the top 95th percentile in average batted ball distance (124.2 feet). Meanwhile, the Cardinals rank 27th in MLB with an 80 wRC+ against RHPs over the last month, and their 25.2% kRate has been the 9th-highest in that span. The Giants (-205 ML) don’t have much in the way of playoff hopes any longer, but they are the second-heaviest favorites on this slate.

Hurston Waldrep (RHP), ATL | DK: $9k, FD: $9.3k | vs. WAS

Waldrep has been a nice surprise for the Braves in what has mostly been a lost season (though they are all of a sudden the hottest team in baseball after ripping off nine straight wins). The results haven’t been as consistently strong for Waldrep lately (5.26 ERA and 1.52 WHIP L5Starts), but the overall numbers across his eight starts have been rock-solid: 3.04 ERA, 3.66 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP, 24.5% kRate, and 46.2% GroundBall%. Waldrep’s 111 Pitching+ rating is also the third-best among today’s starting pitchers.

Waldrep just faced this Nats offense six days ago, and put up a nice pitching line (5.0 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 3 ER, 8 K on 83 pitches). Facing the same team in back-to-back starts can backfire on the pitcher, but we’ll lean on the Nationals' recent offensive struggles. Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Nats have posted a lackluster .642 OPS, 77 wRC+, and 26.5% kRate. The Braves (-199 ML) are the third-heaviest favorites on the slate and are playing with a ton of momentum as a team, even though there has not been any hope of a postseason berth for quite a while.

Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA | DK: $7k, FD: $7.5k | vs. COL

Miller’s season has been tarnished by mostly poor outings, but he has shown some signs of turning things around lately. The ERA still isn’t great, but Miller has put up a serviceable 1.22 WHIP over his last five starts while increasing his strikeout rate to 22.1% in that span. The Mariners are closing in on locking up the AL West division, and, since they had the day off yesterday, their bullpen will be fresh. So Miller may have a short leash and could catch an early hook if he runs into some significant trouble in any one inning.

However, the hope is that our old friends, the “road Rockies,” continue to follow their season-long trend of being the league’s worst offense outside of Coors Field. Against RHPs on the road over the last month, Colorado has mustered just a .169 AVG, .490 OPS, .218 wOBA, and 34 wRC+ with a huge 33.8% kRate. Truly terrible numbers. The Mariners (-288 ML) are the heaviest favorites on the slate, and T-Mobile Park has always been a pitcher’s paradise. At these low-end price points, I believe we can take a shot on Miller (+39.4% more FPPG at home) in hopes of five, maybe six, strong innings, because the matchup quite literally does not get any better than this.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Kevin Guasman (RHP), TOR | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.7k | vs. BOS

Cole Ragans (LHP), KC | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.8k | at LAA

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAD | DK: $8k, FD: $8.2k | at ARI

Luis Gil (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.2k | vs. CWS (Monitor weather)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Atlanta Braves vs. Brad Lord (RHP), WAS

During their nine-game win streak, which began on September 14th, the Braves have been the top offense in baseball and, across 229 plate appearances versus RHPs in that span, they’ve put up a .320 AVG, .987 OPS, .420 wOBA, .265 ISO, 172 wRC+, and 17.0% kRate. As a Braves fan, all I can wonder is “where has this been all season?!”

Brad Lord pitched against Atlanta six days ago and held his own, allowing only two runs on six hits and a walk over 5.1 IP. But the Braves did go on to rock the Nats’ bullpen and ended with nine runs in that game. Lord has also posted a 7.02 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over his last five starts, so his game against the Braves was a bit of an outlier. And the Nationals’ bullpen has been among the worst in baseball lately, having put up an 8.15 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, and .323 opp AVG L2Weeks. Washington also rolled out five relievers in yesterday’s game, four of which threw at least 29 pitches, so they’re going to be limited on bullpen options this evening.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson

Bargain Bats: Ha-Seong Kim, Michael Harris II, Marcell Ozuna

Seattle Mariners vs. McCade Brown (RHP), COL

As noted above, the Mariners are closing in on winning the AL West, so I’m sure they’ll be looking to mash McCade Brown (9.17 ERA, 7.05 xFIP, 2.09 WHIP, 11.8% kRate) and a bad Rockies bullpen tonight. Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Mariners check in at 6th or better in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+. While T-Mobile Park isn’t a great environment for hitters, Seattle has been posting some quality numbers when playing at home lately. And the energy should be high out there this evening!

Favorite SEA Bats: Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor

Bargain Bats: Jorge Polanco, JP Crawford, Victor Robles

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago Cubs vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

Every hitter in the projected Cubs’ lineup has a < 3% pOwn%. As noted in the weather section, there will be some 10 mph winds blowing in at Wrigley tonight, so home runs will be tough to come by. But perhaps the Cubs can find some gaps and rack up the runs anyhow. They’ve been a top-10 offense against LHPs over the last month, ranking 7th or better in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ in that span. Peterson also heads in with a disastrous 10.90 ERA, 2.08 WHIP, .378 opp AVG, and .426 opp wOBA over his last four starts. The Mets bullpen, while not awful, has rated out in the bottom half of the MLB in many key pitching metrics.

Favorite CHC Bats: Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ, Carson Kelly

Bargain Bat: Dansby Swanson

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!