Top MLB DFS Plays & Props 9/2 | Solving a Tricky Tuesday Slate! ⚾

Tuesday, September 2nd ⚾️ DFS Plays & Props for Today's MLB Action

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

I hope everyone enjoyed their long Labor Day weekend! MLB is in the home stretch of the regular season with playoffs beginning at the end of this month, college football is in full swing, the NFL kicks off its regular season on Thursday, and NBA/NHL seasons begin next month! It’s the best time of the year for us sports nuts.

MLB will provide us with a quality nine-game main slate on Tuesday evening. As far as Tuesday slates go, this is on the smaller side, and the first game also doesn’t get underway until 7:35 ET, so we’ll have a little extra time to get our lineups and props in order! This sets up as a fairly balanced slate between pitching and offense. Unfortunately, one of the better-looking offensive environments (CWS at MIN) has some postponement risk associated with it due to potential inclement weather. But, other than that, we’re looking good on the weather front. Let’s jump to it. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣9/2 Dinger Report💣

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

  • SEA at TB (7:35 ET, 7.5 O/U): Just a few scattered storms around, which adds low-end delay risk to this game. But the game will play. Temps in the low-80s with 5-10 mph winds IN from left.

  • ATL at CHC (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Light ~5 mph winds IN from right.

  • CWS at MIN (7:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): A line of storms is expected to move in at some point during this game, so they may be able to start on time but eventually get hit by an in-game delay. There will also be some outright PPD or “unfinished game” risk. We’ll have a better idea of how things will shake out once we run a pre-game radar check. For now, I’ll be keeping CWS and MIN hitters in play but will avoid spotlighting either starting pitcher.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.6k | at TB

Reminder: Monitor weather here.

Woo is coming off a stellar August where, across his five starts and 31.2 IP, he procured a 2.27 ERA, 2.73 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP, 31.5% kRate, and 4.8% BB%. Opponents hit .188 against him in that stretch. He’ll be catching the Rays in the midst of a hot streak -- over the last two weeks against RHPs, they have ranked top-five in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ with a 21.9% kRate, which is right around league-average. That said, this game is setting up as a potential pitcher’s duel, given its slate-low 7.5 over/under.

Woo also features a fastball-heavy arsenal with a four-seamer (47% USG%) and sinker (26% USG%) being his two most utilized pitches. That’s worth noting as the Rays have posted the second-highest kRate in MLB against those two pitches this season. Some 5-10 mph winds will also be blowing in from left field in this game tonight, which could limit homers. Woo may very well give up two or three runs tonight, but I believe he comes away with a quality start and a strong strikeout total.

 

Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.5k | vs. ATL

If we exclude that random blow-up outing he had against the White Sox on July 25th, spanning his other recent eight starts, Imanaga has pitched to a 2.38 ERA, 3.80 xFIP, .164 opp AVG, 0.70 WHIP, 26.7% kRate, and 3.7% BB% while posting a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) in seven of those eight games. Home runs and a high barrel rate have kept Imanaga’s results from being even more impressive during that stretch. However, some light winds blowing in at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field will make homers more difficult to hit tonight.

The Braves have also ranked dead last in MLB with a .092 ISO against LHPs over the last month. They’ve hit for a solid .278 AVG against LHPs in that stretch, but those base hits have mostly gone for singles, with only three hits going for home runs. The Braves have also put up the 11th highest kRate (22.6%) vs. LHPs L30Days. It’s not a perfect matchup, but Imanaga should have another solid outing in this spot tonight.

 

Yu Darvish (RHP), SD | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.6k | vs. BAL

If you’re looking to go cheap at SP today, Yu Darvish is going to make for a sensible value target. He hasn’t been consistent, but he has shown the ability to pay off these low-end salaries with ease, even while being limited to around 70-80 pitches in his starts. He has also been much better at home this season -- it’s only a 21.1 IP sample size, but in the friendly confines of Petco Park, Darvish has posted a 2.95 ERA, 4.12 xFIP, .153 opp AVG, 0.84 WHIP, 0.42 HR/9 Rate, and 22.9% kRate. Very serviceable results.

The Orioles have plenty of young prospects with bright futures in their lineup, but it’s still an inexperienced group of hitters, plenty of whom have a tendency to strike out. The O’s have a 24.8% kRate against RHPs over the last month (6th highest), next to a subpar .677 OPS (ranks 25th) and 91 wRC+ (23rd). The sportsbooks are giving the Orioles the lowest implied run total on the slate at just 3.6 runs. So we have several data points that are backing Darvish as a solid value option this evening.

 

Other Pitchers to Consider

Max Fried (LHP), NYY | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.2k | at HOU

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $9k, FD: $10.4k | at COL

Michael Lorenzen (RHP), KC | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8k | vs. LAA

Luis Severino (RHP), ATH | DK: $6.2k, FD: $8.2k | at STL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

San Francisco Giants vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

 

Non-Coors Stacks

Athletics vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

At 37 years old, Miles Mikolas could very well be pitching in his final major league season. Across his last 16 starts (79.0 IP), he has come away with a 6.04 ERA, 4.61 xFIP, .305 opp AVG, .384 opp wOBA, 2.40 HR/9 Rate, and 15.7% kRate. When matching up his arsenal versus his opponent, the A’s are potentially one of the worst draws he could receive. Mikolas’ top four most utilized pitches have been the four-seamer, slider, curveball, and sinker. The A’s have crushed that pitch mix (from RHPs) to the tune of a .272 AVG (ranks 1st), .348 wOBA (1st), and .191 ISO (6th) with 105 HRs (3rd) hit off of those pitches as well.

Favorite ATH Bats: Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, Brent Rooker

Bargain Bat: Lawrence Butler

 

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Jacob Latz (LHP), TEX

The D-Backs have been a top-five offense against LHPs over the last month, ranking 5th or better in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ in that stretch. They’re also tied for 5th in stolen bases during that span. They’ve been at their best at home this year, where they’ve averaged 5.16 runs/gm (4th in MLB).

Jacob Latz is getting another turn in the rotation today. He has pitched to a very respectable 3.13 ERA across 63.1 IP this season, and he has shown some really strong swing-and-miss stuff with a 13.9% SwStr%. However, walks have been an issue (11.1% BB%), and he is getting hit pretty hard with a 41.5% HardHit%. Latz may not pitch too deep into this game, which could leave a middle-of-the-pack Rangers bullpen left to eat up more innings than usual.

Favorite ARI Bats: Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo

Bargain Bats: Gabriel Moreno, Blaze Alexander

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Diego Padres vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

Every hitter in the projected Padres lineup has a < 8% pOwn%. Tyler Wells will be making his first MLB start since April 12th of last season after undergoing an internal brace procedure on the UCL in his throwing arm. Wells made six rehab starts across 25.1 IP in the minor leagues, so he may only be facing light restrictions, if any, in his first game back on a major league mound. The results were pretty solid for Wells across his rehab assignment -- 2.49 ERA, 4.29 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 24.0% kRate, and 6.0% BB%. However, to state the obvious, it’s a massive leap going from pitching against Double-A and Triple-A batters to big league hitters, and Wells has always had a tendency to give up the long ball (1.62 HR/9 Rate for his career). The Padres are typically also one of the more difficult lineups to rack up strikeouts against, so Wells will find himself pitching to contact more this evening. He’ll be backed by an O’s bullpen that has posted the 5th highest WHIP (1.44) and 10th highest ERA (4.55) over the last month.

Favorite SD Bats: Fernando Tatis Jr., Ramon Laureano, Jackson Merrill

Bargain Bats: Gavin Sheets, Jake Cronenworth, Luis Arraez

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Mitch Farris (LHP), LAA

OF Kyle Tucker, CHC vs. Joey Wentz (LHP), ATL

2B Ketel Marte, ARI vs. Jacob Latz (LHP), TEX

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL vs. Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

2B Brandon Lowe, TB vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

SS Willy Adames, SF vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX vs. Nabil Crismatt (RHP), ARI

2B Jose Altuve, HOU vs. Max Fried (LHP), NYY

SS Zach Neto, LAA vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), KC

OF Lars Nootbaar, STL vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Lawrence Butler, ATH vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

SS Colson Montgomery, CWS vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

OF Matt Wallner, MIN vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC vs. Joey Wentz (LHP), ATL

OF Brenton Doyle, COL vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

OF Gavin Sheets, SD vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

OF Michael Harris II, ATL vs. Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC

OF Luis Matos, SF vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

2B Jake Cronenworth, SD vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

OF Dylan Beavers, BAL vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

1B Luis Arraez, SD vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

OF Ian Happ, CHC vs. Joey Wentz (LHP), ATL

C Gabriel Moreno, ARI vs. Jacob Latz (LHP), TEX

OF Mickey Moniak, COL vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

2B/3B Blaze Alexander, ARI vs. Jacob Latz (LHP), TEX

OF Joc Pederson, TEX vs. Nabil Crismatt (RHP), ARI

C Jimmy Crooks, STL vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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