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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

The penultimate MLB regular season Friday main slate hits the docket with a dozen games on tap! As a reminder, the season concludes on Sunday, September 28th, with playoffs commencing shortly thereafter. So enjoy the MLB action while ya can! Today’s slate is a pretty typical large slate. Decent pitching, decent hitters/stack options, and Coors Field is on the ticket once again. Let’s dive in! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣9/19 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• BOS at TB (7:35 ET, 7.0 O/U): Warm temps in the mid-80s but with 5-10 mph winds blowing IN from left.

• SD at CWS (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Things start dry, and may stay that way for the entire game, but there is some rain in the forecast later in the evening. There is a good chance they get nine innings in before any rain arrives, but it’s still something to be mindful of.

• CLE at MIN (8:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Moderate chance of a late start here as lingering rain could still be in the process of clearing around the scheduled first pitch. Once they get underway, there should be no issues or delays. Temps in the upper-60s with light winds IN from right.

• MIL at STL (8:15 ET, 7.5 O/U): Low coverage showers and storms in the general area, so there is some slight delay risk here if one pops over the ballpark. Nothing too worrisome.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Garrett Crochet (LHP), BOS | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11k | at TB

Crochet got randomly rocked by the Guardians a couple of weeks back, but has otherwise been putting up his usual ace-like results. Across his last six starts, he has pitched to a 2.12 xFIP, 34.2% kRate, and a minuscule 2.0% BB%. He has had some rotten luck with homers (30.0% HR/FB Rate, 2.10 HR/9), but perhaps some of those 5-10 mph winds blowing in from left at Steinbrenner Field this evening will help knock down any well-struck flyballs and keep them in the yard.

The Rays have been a very average offense versus LHPs over the last month, based on their 101 wRC+. They’ve also put up the 10th-highest strikeout rate (25.2% kRate) and fourth-lowest walk rate (6.5% BB%). So, while not a perfect matchup, it is a spot where we can anticipate another big DFS score from Crochet with plenty of strikeout upside.

Trevor Rogers (LHP), BAL | DK: $8.9k, FD: $10.5k | vs. NYY

The Orioles did recently get a couple of starters (Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells) back from the 60-day IL, but Trevor Rogers has been the one steady constant of an otherwise rocky rotation this season. Across his 16 starts, Rogers has pitched to a superb 1.43 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP, 24.0% kRate, and 47.2% GroundBall%. His 3.51 xFIP on the season suggests some moderate regression is due, but a mid-3s xFIP also isn’t a bad figure. Rogers has been doing a great job at limiting hard-hit balls, and his 85.0 mph average exit velo over the last month ranks him in the top 90th percentile of pitchers.

Folks will shy away from this matchup with the Yankees, and for good reason, given their power-hitting prowess. But their 102 wRC+ against LHPs over the last month puts them right around league-average and, more notably, their monstrous 28.3% kRate versus lefties in that span is the second-highest in baseball, behind only the Nationals (31.2% kRate). Rogers has allowed just one home run over his last nine starts (0.20 HR/9 Rate), so if he continues to keep the ball inside the park, I’d imagine that he has another strong outing here with elevated strikeout upside. The matchup with the Yankees is also keeping Rogers’ projected ownership under 5% on both sites, so he profiles as an excellent GPP leverage play.

Brandon Sproat (RHP), NYM | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.2k | vs. WAS

Sproat prepares to make his third career MLB start, and the Mets’ No. 1 overall prospect (per FanGraphs) has looked solid in his first two games. Both outings resulted in a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) and, over his 12.0 IP, Sproat has tallied a 2.25 ERA, 3.50 xFIP, 1.08 WHIP, and 21.3% kRate. The strikeout rate is nothing to write home about, and Sproat has only generated a 6.3% SwStr%, but the kRate could climb as Sproat gets more MLB innings under his belt. He has also only allowed a 24.2% FlyBall%, and, including his data in the minor leagues, he profiles as a tough pitcher to hit home runs off of. The Mets (-218 ML) also step in as the heaviest favorites on the slate.

A few bats in the Nats’ lineup have been seeing the ball well lately, but they’re only at a 99 wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks (363 plate appearances), which ranks them 15th in MLB. They’ve posted a higher-than-average 24.5% kRate in that span as well. Sproat’s primary pitch mix -- which features a sweeper, sinker, and curveball -- should also play well in this matchup as the Nationals have ranked 24th with a .305 wOBA against that pitch mix this season. Expect a third consecutive quality start for Sproat this evening, with a great shot at him snagging his first career win as well.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $10k, FD: $10.8k | at HOU

Dylan Cease (RHP), SD | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.2k | at CWS

Parker Messick (LHP), CLE | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.7k | at MIN (Monitor weather)

Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.5k | vs. PHI

Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD | DK: $7k, FD: $8.3k | vs. SF

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Los Angeles Angels vs. Bradley Blalock (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Mitch Farris (LHP), LAA

Non-Coors Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

Spanning his last ten starts, Taijuan Walker has put up a lackluster 4.64 ERA, 5.02 xFIP, .294 opp AVG, .352 opp wOBA, 1.80 HR/9 Rate, and 11.2% kRate. He is averaging 35.9% less FPPG on the road and, over the last month, the 10 barreled balls he has allowed rank him in the bottom 5th percentile of pitchers. Walker will be followed by a Phillies bullpen that owns a 5.14 ERA, 4.81 xFIP, and 2.06 HR/9 Rate L2Weeks.

The D-Backs haven’t necessarily been crushing the ball, but they have ranked 12th or better in AVG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and kRate against RHPs L2Weeks. Their 18.1% kRate in that span is the fourth-lowest in baseball. So, we should anticipate plenty of balls being put in play for this lineup tonight.

Favorite ARI Bats: Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, Ketel Marte

Bargain Bats: Gabriel Moreno, Tim Tawa, Jake McCarthy

San Diego Padres vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Padres head into this game ranking 5th or better in AVG (.272), OPS (.794), wOBA (.342), and wRC+ (123) while ranking 6th with a .190 ISO. Their strikeout rate has crept up slightly in recent weeks, but seemingly at the tradeoff of taking bigger swings and connecting on more extra-base hits.

Davis Martin hasn’t been a terrible starter, but is very much “just a guy.” Since August 5th, his acceptable 4.39 ERA is backed up by a considerably worse 5.37 xFIP, indicating some sizable regression is due. He has also allowed a 1.80 HR/9 Rate in that span while striking out only 18.2% of hitters. Martin’s recent statcast data shows us that he is giving up plenty of hard contact with a high flyball rate, so the upside of multiple home runs being hit by the Padres this evening is there.

Favorite SD Bats: Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado

Bargain Bat: Jake Cronenworth

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Kansas City Royals (Bump to LHBs) vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), TOR

Every hitter in the projected Royals lineup has a < 10% pOwn%. A past-his-prime Max Scherzer heads in with a 5.33 ERA, 4.88 xFIP, and 1.80 HR/9 Rate over his last five starts. In that span, he is in the bottom 10th percentile in barreled balls allowed (9) and average batted ball distance (206.6 feet). Scherzer has had issues against LHBs this season, allowing a .335 opp wOBA, .260 opp ISO, and 2.21 HR/9 Rate to that side of the plate, so Royals LHPs should get a bump in this matchup. The Toronto bullpen has been sharp, but they have also thrown a lot of innings over the last 3-4 days, so some late-season fatigue could be a factor.

Favorite KC Bats: Vinnie Pasquantino, Bobby Witt Jr., Carter Jensen

Bargain Bats: Salvador Perez, Adam Frazier, Jac Caglianone

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), BAL

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Parker Messick (LHP), CLE

OF George Springer, TOR vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), KC

1B Bryce Harper, PHI vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

OF James Wood, WAS vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), NYM

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Mitch Farris (LHP), LAA

1B Pete Alonso, NYM vs. Andrew Alvarez (LHP), WAS

OF Jo Adell, LAA vs. Bradley Blalock (RHP), COL

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

SS Trevor Story, BOS vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL

OF Jakob Marsee, MIA vs. Tyler Mahle (RHP), TEX

1B Yandy Diaz, TB vs. Garrett Crochet (LHP), BOS

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL vs. Will Warren (RHP), NYY

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX vs. Janson Junk (RHP), MIA

SS Jeremy Pena, HOU vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

C Ivan Herrera, STL vs. Jacob Misiorowski (RHP), MIL

SS Colson Montgomery, CWS vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), SD

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), TOR

SS Willy Adames, SF vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

C Salvador Perez, KC vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), TOR

OF Harrison Bader, PHI vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

C Gabriel Moreno, ARI vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

2B/3B Luis Rengifo, LAA vs. Bradley Blalock (RHP), COL

OF Daylen Lile, WAS vs. Brandon Sproat (RHP), NYM

2B/SS Jake Cronenworth, SD vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

3B Caleb Durbin, MIL vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL

1B Blaine Crim, COL vs. Mitch Farris (LHP), LAA

OF Austin Martin, MIN vs. Parker Messick (LHP), CLE

OF Brandon Marsh, PHI vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

SS Denzer Guzman, LAA vs. Bradley Blalock (RHP), COL

OF Dylan Beavers, BAL vs. Will Warren (RHP), NYY

C Carter Jensen, KC vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), TOR

2B/OF Adam Frazier, KC vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), TOR

1B/OF Tim Tawa, ARI vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

OF Jake McCarthy, ARI vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

2B/3B Miguel Rojas, LAD vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!