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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s a light Thursday in MLB. With most games being played in the afternoon window, we’ll only have a small four-game evening slate lined up. I certainly don’t mind the occasional four-gamer, and this one looks pretty solid. On this mini slate, we’ve got several aces to choose from, a few standout stack options, and multiple ways we can go against the grain as well. Let’s go ahead and get into a quick little newsletter for this slate. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣9/18 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• SF at LAD (10:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): A bit of rain in the general area tonight, but, if anything does make it over the ballpark, there aren’t going to be many issues expected. Low-end delay risk, at most.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.5k | vs. SF

Yamamoto has been on a torrid stretch, pitching to a 2.02 ERA, 2.50 xFIP, .118 opp AVG, 0.59 WHIP, 33.3% kRate, and 5.6% BB% over his last five starts. Going back even further, over his last 10 starts, the numbers have been nearly as impressive: 2.49 ERA, 2.67 xFIP, .166 opp AVG, 0.85 WHIP, 31.5% kRate, and 6.9% BB%. Outside of a random hiccup against the Angels and a 3 ER game at Coors Field, Yamamoto has dominated every team he has faced over the last two-plus months.

The Giants' offense was on a heater for a moment, but they have since reverted to being a bottom-10 offense versus RHPs L2Weeks: .212 AVG (25th), .646 OPS (24th), and 80 wRC+ (23rd). Their 21.6% kRate in that span hasn’t been overly high, but pretty close to league average. In 73 PAs versus the current Giants roster, Yamamoto has also held them to a meager .152 AVG and .229 wOBA with an excellent 30.1% kRate. Yamamoto did just face this Giants team six days ago, where he put on a near-flawless performance: 7.0 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 10 K. I don’t love when a pitcher faces the same team in back-to-back starts, as a pitcher’s “stuff” can still be relatively fresh in the opposing hitters’ minds, but that’s the only negative to speak on for Yamamoto today.

Quinn Priester (RHP), MIL | DK: $8k, FD: $8.6k | vs. LAA

Brewers starters have completely stifled the Angels in this series. So, while Quinn Priester isn’t on the same tier of pitchers as Freddy Peralta and Brandon Woodruff, we’ll go with the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” approach. Priester has been a more-than-serviceable starter and, dating back to June 10th (16 GS, 91.0 IP), he has procured a strong 2.87 ERA, 3.48 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP, 21.9% kRate, and 5.6% BB% while forcing a 55.8% GroundBall%.

Meanwhile, the Angels have done very little damage to RHPs of late. Over the last two weeks against RHPs, they’re hitting for a .197 AVG with a .632 OPS, 71 wRC+, and an astronomical 35.4% kRate, which is easily the highest strikeout rate in baseball in that stretch. Expect a quality start out of Priester this evening with elevated strikeout upside.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Max Fried (LHP), NYY | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.8k | at BAL

Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.1k | vs. CHC

Colin Rea (RHP), CHC | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7k | at CIN

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

The Yankees have been slugging it well over the last week, owning a .288 AVG, .857 OPS, .366 wOBA, .210 ISO, and 138 wRC+. Their 63 HRs over the last month are also 12 more than any other team.

Cade Povich has been strong from a strikeout standpoint (24.7% kRate), but he owns a slate-worst 5.71 xERA on the season and, across his last five outings, he’s posted a 5.33 ERA, .283 opp AVG, .360 opp wOBA, 1.50 WHIP, and 1.80 HR/9 Rate. Povich has also allowed seven barrels over the last month (bottom 20th percentile). He owns a 2.05 HR/9 Rate at home, Oriole Park ranks as the #2 home run ballpark, and the O’s bullpen has a near-5 ERA L2Weeks. So, there are plenty of factors working in favor of these Yankees’ sluggers today.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Jose Caballero

Bargain Bats: Paul Goldschmidt, Amed Rosario, Austin Slater

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

Kikuchi has been in some rough form. His last seven starts have resulted in a 7.49 ERA, .311 opp AVG, .397 opp wOBA, 1.66 WHIP, and 17.6% kRate. He tends to struggle more on the road, as well, averaging 40.7% less FPPG. His recent statcast data is also lit up red like a Christmas tree with a number of poor metrics. Kikuchi will be backed up by an Angels bullpen that has posted a 5.49 ERA and 1.68 HR/9 Rate L2Weeks.

The Brewers do not mash the ball like many other top offenses, but they consistently put the ball in play and lead the league with a .331 BABIP L2Weeks, and they’re 7th in MLB with a 115 wRC+ over that same span. Given Kikuchi’s recent struggles, particularly on the road, combined with a poor LAA bullpen, will make the Brew Crew an attractive stack option once again today.

Favorite MIL Bats: Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, Brice Turang

Bargain Bats: Caleb Durbin, Sal Frelick

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago Cubs vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

Greene is one of the league’s top flamethrowers, but he also isn’t immune to the occasional blow-up game, such as the one he just had last Saturday against the A’s (2.1 IP on 84 pitches, 4 H w/ 2 HRs, 4 BB, 5 ER). Several hitters in the Cubs’ lineup have been heating back up as the postseason nears, and, as a team, they rank 5th with a 126 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks. Ownership won’t be super low on any team for a four-game slate, but I could see the Cubs flying a bit under the radar this evening.

Favorite CHC Bats: Ian Happ, Michael Busch, Nico Hoerner

Bargain Bats: Moises Ballesteros, Dansby Swanson

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

3B Jordan Westburg, BAL vs. Max Fried (LHP), NYY

3B Matt Chapman, SF vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

OF Ian Happ, CHC vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

OF TJ Friedl, CIN vs. Colin Rea (RHP), CHC

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

3B Nico Hoerner, CHC vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

OF Tyler O’Neill, BAL vs. Max Fried (LHP), NYY

OF Andy Pages, LAD vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

SS Dansby Swanson, CHC vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

OF Will Benson, CIN vs. Colin Rea (RHP), CHC

3B Caleb Durbin, MIL vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

1B Paul Goldschmidt, NYY vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

2B/3B Amen Rosario, NYY vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

1B Sal Stewart, CIN vs. Colin Rea (RHP), CHC

C Moises Ballesteros, CHC vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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No HR Calls contest today. The contest will return tomorrow!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!