Top MLB DFS Plays & Props 9/17 | Breaking Down a Tricky Wednesday Slate! ⚾

Wednesday, September 17th ⚾️ DFS Plays & Props for Today's MLB Action

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter/X and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A pretty hefty midweek slate rolls around on this fine Wednesday. Over on FanDuel, you’ll be looking at a 10-game slate, beginning at 6:40 ET. Over on DraftKings, the CLE/DET and OAK/BOS games are excluded, so you’ll have an eight-game slate beginning at 7:05 ET there. I was held up at an appointment today, so I’ll keep this newsletter somewhat concise. However, I would like to point out that this is the first busy weather/rain day in a while and that there will be a few games worth monitoring for potential wet conditions (more on that below). But let’s cut right to the chase and dive in! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Reminder: The CLE/DET and ATH/BOS games are only on the FanDuel main slate

💣9/17 Dinger Report💣

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

  • ATH at BOS (6:45 ET, 9.0 O/U): > FanDuel Main Slate Only < Maybe a few raindrops in the latter innings, but nothing that would stop play, presumably. Mid-60s temps with light winds IN from center.

  • TOR at TB (7:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Rain will be in the general vicinity, but the worst of it should hold inland away from the Tampa area. However, it will still be worth double-checking the radar closer to first pitch.

  • SD at NYM (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): A few light scattered showers around. There’s a good chance they can simply play through some intermittent rain, but a delay of some sort is also possible. 5-10 mph winds IN from center/right.

  • SEA at KC (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Scattered showers and storms around. If one makes its way over the ballpark, or if lightning pops off nearby, a delay may be in order. PPD seems unlikely.

  • NYY at MIN (7:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): Some showers/storms around in the afternoon, possibly bleeding into the early evening. And another line of showers/storms looks to move in later in the evening. For now, I think they have a solid window to get this game in without much issue, but the delay risk is there. It’ll be another spot worth monitoring closer to first pitch.

  • MIA at COL (8:40 ET, 10.5 O/U): Low-to-moderate chance of some rain moving in during the game, so some mild delay risk exists here as well.

  • PHI at LAD (10:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): This is a rare appearance for an LA game in this section. Some very light rain could move through the area, but they’ll likely be able to play through anything that falls. I still figured it was worth noting.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.8k | vs. LAA

Woodruff came out guns blazing in his delayed start to 2025. He has since regressed in recent weeks, but his main speed bump came on the road against a tough Blue Jays offense, which many top-flight pitchers have struggled against this season (especially when playing in Toronto). Woodruff did bounce back with an excellent performance in his last outing versus the Pirates -- 6 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 0 ER, 8 K. And, across his 11 starts this year, Woodruff owns a quality 3.32 ERA which is backed up by a stellar 2.27 xERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 31.0% kRate.

Like any MLB team, the Angels can occasionally pop off against any pitcher, but that doesn’t negate the fact that they’ve been pretty rough offensively against RHPs. Against righties L2Weeks, they’re hitting for a .199 AVG with a 74 wRC+ and MLB-high 33.8% kRate. Those bad numbers have been even worse when the Angels have been on the road in recent weeks. Versus RHPs away L2Weeks, the Angels are hitting for a miserable .160 AVG with a 43 wRC+ and a monster 40.7% kRate. So, it’s kind of the same deal as Freddy Peralta yesterday (who went for 6.0 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 1 ER, 10 K) -- whatever damage the Angels do manage to put up is likely negated by the massive strikeout upside that they’ve been providing opposing righties.

 

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $9k, FD: $10.5k | at TB

Note: Monitor weather here.

Gausman has been locked in over his last 10 starts (68.0 IP) -- 2.25 ERA, 3.23 xFIP, .161 opp AVG, .208 opp wOBA, 0.74 WHIP, 26.5% kRate, and 4.3% BB%. He’s coming off a CGSO of the Astros, where he allowed just two hits and a walk. In the two games before that, he stifled a pair of potent offenses in the Yankees and Brewers, allowing one run apiece to those teams.

The Rays have been middle-of-the-road offensively against RHPs L2Weeks (93 wRC+, ranks 18th), they haven’t shown tremendous power (.143 ISO, ranks 20th), and they’ve been striking out at a high clip (24.7% kRate, 10th highest). As long as the weather cooperates in Tampa, expect another strong performance out of the Gasman.

 

Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7k | at COL

Note: Monitor weather here.

I don’t love the low-end salary range for SP today, so rolling the dice on a Coors Field pitcher may be worth looking into if you’re trying to save some salary or need a cheap SP2 on DraftKings. Ryan Weather missed a bit over three months with a lat injury, but returned to action last Thursday and performed well versus the Nationals (5.0 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 0 ER, 4 K). He only threw 68 pitches in that last outing, but he could perhaps be extended to around 80 pitches today. In his limited starts this season (6 GS, 29.2 IP), Weathers has pitched to a very serviceable 2.73 ERA, 3.04 xERA, 1.04 WHIP, 22.3% kRate, and 13.1% SwStr% with a sharp 108 Stuff+ rating. He has also generally kept the ball on the ground with a 45.2% GroundBall%.

Against LHPs L30Days, Colorado has mustered just a .095 ISO and 64 wRC+ with a lofty 27.1% kRate. Given, they’re generally going to be more potent at home in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball. But they’re still not even close to being an “average offense” at home versus LHPs this season. We will need the weather to cooperate a bit here as well, and hope for Weathers to get his pitch count leash loosened a bit more, but it’s a good spot for him to put together a quality outing.

 

Other Pitchers to Consider

Blake Snell (LHP), LAD | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.1k | vs. PHI

Jacob deGrom (RHP), TEX | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.2k | at HOU

Luis Gil (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.4k | at MIN (Monitor weather)

 

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET | DK: N/A, FD: $8.2k | vs. CLE

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Miami Marlins vs. McCade Brown (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA

 

Non-Coors Stacks

New York Yankees vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), MIN

The Yankees are a little boom-or-bust… maybe a lot boom-or-bust, but we’ll hope to catch them on a “boom” day. Their 44 HRs against RHPs over the last month are ten more than the next-closest team (NYM), and 21.4% of their flyballs against RHPs in that span have gone for homers.

Taj Bradley has had his fair share of bumps in the road and was even relegated to Triple-A for a while when he was with the Rays. Across his last five big league starts, he heads in with a 7.43 ERA, 5.01 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, .289 opp AVG, and .360 opp wOBA with a low 18.6% kRate. Bradley will be backed up by a Twins bullpen that has imploded in recent weeks to the tune of a 7.74 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, .302 opp AVG, and 1.70 HR/9 Rate L2Weeks.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Ben Rice, Giancarlo Stanton

Bargain Bat: Austin Wells

 

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

When Jose Soriano is “on,” he is a tough pitcher to deal with simply because he forces so many softly hit groundballs and has above-average strikeout ability. But he has not been in top form recently, allowing 11 ER over his last two starts, and he’s put up a 5.84 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and 1.50 HR/9 Rate over his last handful of starts.

The Brewers are also one of the best bat-to-ball offenses in MLB, and they don’t necessarily need a ton of HRs to succeed and can instead BABIP a pitcher to death. They head in with an MLB-best .340 BABIP vs. RHPs L2Weeks and are 2nd with 13 stolen bases in that span. They’re also 6th or better in AVG, wOBA, and wRC+. There are no real concerns over this Angels bullpen either, so we can once again feel pretty good about rolling out some Brewers bats.

Favorite MIL Bats: Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich, Brice Turang

Bargain Bats: Caleb Durbin, Sal Frelick, Jake Bauers

 

FanDuel Main Slate Only Stack

Boston Red Sox vs. Mason Barnett (RHP), ATH

Favorite BOS Bats: Trevor Story, Jarren Duran, Alex Bregman

Bargain Bat: Romy Gonzalez

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), KC

Every hitter in the confirmed Mariners lineup has a < 8% pOwn%. I don’t mind going right back to the Mariners, especially at low ownership. They remain the #3 road offense in MLB (5.13 runs/gm) and are top 10 versus LHPs L30Days in OPS, wOBA, ISO, wRC+, and HR/FB Rate.

Cole Ragans will be pitching on an MLB mound for the first time in 3 1/2 months after being reinstated from the 60-day IL due to a shoulder injury. Ragans had also missed time before that shoulder injury, and he has only made one MLB start since May 16th. When healthy, he is one of the best starters in baseball, but we’ll be banking on him showing some rust against a power-hitting Mariners lineup. The Royals’ bullpen has also been fairly average in recent weeks, so even if Ragans does keep Seattle in check, there is still some hope for some late-inning fireworks.

Favorite SEA Bats: Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor

Bargain Bats: Jorge Polanco, JP Crawford

Due to time limitations, I have to nix the one-off and bargain bat lists today but I’ll get those back online tomorrow!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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