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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

MLB is back to being the main attraction today, and, as Tuesdays always go, we’ve got a hefty slate ahead with 11 games on the docket! It’s a fairly straightforward slate today -- pretty good pitching, pretty good hitting/stack options, Coors Field is on the board, and no weather postponements are expected. It’s a good day to have a good day, so let’s hop to it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣9/16 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• SD at NYM (7:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Rain stays southwest of NY, so no concern there. Cooler temps in the upper-60s with 10 mph winds IN from right.

• TOR at TB (7:35 ET, 8.5 O/U): Low-end chance of a late start with a few showers potentially in the general area around first pitch. 5-10 mph winds IN from left/center at times.

• SEA at KC (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): A few pop-up storms expected in the area. They likely miss the ballpark entirely, but if one develops in the wrong spot, a delay is possible here. No significant PPD risk.

• MIA at COL (8:40 ET, 10.0 O/U): More low-end delay risk with a few scattered showers around. 10 mph winds OUT to right/center at times.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10k | vs. LAA

It’s been another strong campaign for Peralta, who boasts a 2.69 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 27.5% kRate through his 30 starts this season. Peralta has been stepping it up down the stretch, and spanning his last seven starts, he has supplied a 1.42 ERA, 3.26 xFIP, .144 opp AVG, 0.95 WHIP, and 34.0% kRate. An elevated walk rate has been the only issue for Peralta in that stretch (11.3% BB%). Peralta has been at his best at home this year, where he owns a 1.72 ERA, 0.54 HR/9 Rate, 28.4% kRate, and 7.8% BB% -- compare that to his road splits: 3.71 ERA, 1.46 HR/9 Rate, 26.7% kRate, and 11.0% BB%.

We’ll have to love the matchup as the Angels head in with a .213 AVG, .660 OPS, 80 wRC+, and an MLB-high 32.0% kRate against RHPs L2Weeks. The Angels have had a knack for doing some damage against aces in recent months, but even if they do get a few hits and runs on the board against Peralta, the strikeout upside should more than make up for it. The Brewers (-281 ML) are also, by far, the heaviest favorites on this slate. All things considered, I highly doubt this is a letdown game for Peralta, and it’s an excellent spot for the Brewers to get one step closer to clinching the division (+5.0 games ahead of CHC) and the No. 1 seed in the NL playoffs.

Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.2k | at STL

Abbott has had his fair share of ups and downs this season, but when he’s dialed in, we’ve seen him erupt for some incredible pitching lines. There has been more “good” to speak on than “bad” lately, and across his previous six starts, Abbott has posted a 3.88 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, 24.7% kRate, and 4.7% BB%. He has allowed plenty of barrels lately -- nine barreled balls over the last month puts him in the bottom 10th percentile of pitchers, but we’ll get into why that’s less of a concern in this matchup.

Against LHPs over the last month, the Cardinals rank either 29th or dead last in AVG (.216), OPS (.587), wOBA (.266), and ISO (.078). They’re also 27th with a 71 wRC+ and have posted an above-average 23.3% kRate. There just hasn’t been much power to speak of in this Cardinals lineup lately. And, since the All-Star Break versus Abbott’s primary pitch mix (four-seamer, changeup, curveball, sweeper), St. Louis has posted the 5th lowest Barrel/PA% at 4.8%, which mitigates some concerns over Abbott’s recent barreled ball rate allowed. The Reds are still alive in the NL Wild Card race, currently two games back from the Mets for the final spot. So, a strong performance from Abbott would go a long way in keeping their postseason hopes alive over the final couple of weeks of the MLB regular season.

Shane Smith (RHP), CWS | DK: $7k, FD: $8.3k | vs. BAL

As usual, the low-end salary range features plenty of volatility, but Shane Smith has quietly been a rock-solid arm over the last month-and-a-half. Since August 7th (7 GS, 40.0 IP), Smith has procured a 2.70 ERA, 4.15 xFIP, .169 opp AVG, 0.90 WHIP, and 23.7% kRate. The 4+ xFIP in that stretch tells us that he is due for some regression, but it’s not an awful figure by any means. Smith has also been better at home this season, where he has averaged +26.8% more FPPG.

The Orioles head into this matchup hitting for a paltry .188 AVG, .581 OPS, 67 wRC+, and .092 ISO with a lofty 27.3% kRate against RHPs L2Weeks (341 PAs). There is still plenty of young talent throughout this O’s batting order, and recently getting Tyler O’Neill back from the IL adds a much-needed power element to the lineup. But the results just haven’t been there lately, and this offense hasn’t scored more than four runs in ten consecutive games. All signs point toward another solid start for Shane Smith.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $10k, FD: $10.3k | at KC (Monitor weather)

Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.4k | at MIN

Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.1k | vs. SF

Eury Perez (RHP), MIA | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.5k | at COL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Miami Marlins vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA

Non-Coors Stacks

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Caden Dana (RHP), LAA

Caden Dana is set to make his sixth MLB start tonight. Dana is a highly rated prospect (#2 LAA prospect, #78 overall MLB prospect, via FanGraphs), but the results haven’t been pretty at the Triple-A level nor the big league level. Across 82.0 IP at Triple-A this season, Dana came away with a 5.93 ERA, 5.71 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, 12.4% BB%, and 1.54 HR/9 Rate. Over his 26.0 IP at the MLB level, he has put up a 7.62 ERA, 5.09 xFIP, 14.6% BB%, and 3.12 HR/9 Rate. His “plus” metrics, which measure a pitcher’s stuff, location, and overall skill, have also been rough -- 89 Stuff+, 86 Location+, and 79 Pitching+ (note that with all “plus” stats, 100 is exact league average).

The Brewers are a tough draw for any pitcher, much less a 21-year-old with limited MLB experience. Milwaukee may not be in the midst of one of their hot streaks at the plate, but they head in firmly in the top 10 in AVG, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and kRate against RHPs L2Weeks.

Favorite MIL Bats: Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich, Brice Turang

Bargain Bats: Caleb Durbin, Sal Frelick, Jake Bauers

Seattle Mariners vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

Wacha is coming off the 7-day IL after getting over a concussion. He last pitched 11 days ago, so he will not likely face any notable restrictions. Wacha has been pitching generally well, with a 2.79 ERA over his last ten starts. However, he owns a lackluster 4.39 xFIP over that same stretch, indicating some regression is due. Wacha has also allowed a high 50.0% FlyBall% over the last month, which could pose a problem for him in this matchup.

The Mariners have been slugging it well, with 20 HRs over the last two weeks and the 5th-highest HR/FB Rate (15.3%). They’ve also been much more potent on the road this season, ranking as the #3 road offense (5.04 runs/gm) -- a sizable uptick from their 4.36 runs/gm at home.

Favorite SEA Bats: Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor

Bargain Bats: Jorge Polanco, JP Crawford

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Minnesota Twins vs. Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY

Every hitter in the projected Twins lineup has a < 10% pOwn% with seven players at < 5% pOwn%. Outside of getting roughed up in a recent meeting with the Blue Jays, Cam Schlittler has been excellent over the last month or so. However, he has allowed a rather high 26.2% LineDrive% and 44.3% FlyBall% L30Days, which opens the door for some extra base hits. The Twins have been quite productive against righties, with an .839 OPS, .362 wOBA, .221 ISO, and 133 wRC+ over their last seven games. But the key here may be getting Schlittler off the mound as early as possible so they can get into a struggling Yankees bullpen. Over the L2Weeks, the NYY bullpen owns an MLB-worst 8.34 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, .312 opp AVG, and 1.76 HR/9 Rate. So, even if Schlittler keeps the Twins bats in check early, there is an opportunity for a late-game explosion if the NYY bullpen struggles continue.

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Luke Keachall, Matt Wallner

Bargain Bat: Austin Martin

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Zebby Matthews (RHP), MIN

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Michael King (RHP), SD

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY

SS Bobby Witt Jr. KC vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

OF George Springer, TOR vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

1B Bryce Harper, PHI vs. Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAD

OF Jakob Marsee, MIA vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

SS Mookie Betts, LAD vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Michael McGreevy (RHP), STL

1B Rafael Devers, SF vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

SS Geraldo Perdomo, ARI vs. Giants Bullpen

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL vs. Caden Dana (RHP), LAA

1B Yandy Diaz, TB vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX vs. AJ Blubaugh (RHP), HOU

2B Jackson Holliday, BAL vs. Shane Smith (RHP), CWS

SS Colson Montgomery, CWS vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

C Ivan Herrera, STL vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

SS Jeremy Pena, HOU vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), TEX

OF Jackson Merrill, SD vs. Clay Holmes (RHP), NYM

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Mickey Moniak, COL vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA

OF Sal Frelick, MIL vs. Caden Dana (RHP), LAA

2B Jorge Polanco, SEA vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

OF Michael Helman, TEX vs. AJ Blubaugh (RHP), HOU

OF Harrison Bader, PHI vs. Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAD

OF Austin Martin, MIN vs. Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY

1B Jake Bauers, MIL vs. Caden Dana (RHP), LAA

3B Caleb Durbin, MIL vs. Caden Dana (RHP), LAA

2B Chase Meidroth, CWS vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

1B Sal Stewart, CIN vs. Michael McGreevy (RHP), STL

OF Zach Cole, HOU vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), TEX

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!