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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A new week, and one of the final weeks, of MLB regular season action will get rolling with a seven-game Monday main slate! It’s generally looking like a fairly standard slate -- pretty decent pitching and some worthwhile hitting/stack options. Weather also won’t be a concern, which is always a bonus. We’ll keep this intro short and jump right into the action. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣9/15 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• NYY at MIN (7:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): 10 mph winds IN from right.

• CIN at STL (7:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): Light 5 mph winds IN from center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.8k | at CWS

Bradish had a long road back from Tommy John surgery recovery, but in his three starts since his return, he has put up some promising results. His 3.60 ERA is backed up by a stronger 3.10 xFIP, and Bradish has also pitched to a 0.94 WHIP, 6.2% BB%, and a huge 32.3% kRate. It’s a small sample size, of course, but Bradish seems to have recovered well from his elbow injury/surgery.

Bradish’s matchup with the White Sox is intriguing. Though it’s devoid of any household names, this CWS offense has shown some scrappiness since the MLB returned from the All-Star Break. But, performing above expectations for this team generally means that they’ve been an average offense. That’s reflected in their 102 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks, which places them 17th in MLB. They’ve also been striking out a fair amount, with a 25.8% kRate (7th highest) in that same span. Bradish will likely be limited to around 80-85 pitches, as there is no real reason for the Orioles, who are firmly outside the playoff picture, to push him further than that. But that could be enough of a workload for Bradish to record a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) with plenty of strikeouts along the way.

Jason Alexander (RHP), HOU | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.1k | vs. TEX

Alexander may not be the most exciting option, but he has been settling into his big league starting role nicely, and the results have followed. Since August 4th (7 GS, 41.0 IP), he’s put up a 2.20 ERA, 3.78 xFIP, .205 opp AVG, 0.98 WHIP, 21.6% kRate, and 5.6% BB%. Pretty pedestrian kRate, but everything else has been solid.

Meanwhile, the Rangers head into this game ranking 23rd or worse in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks. Their 21.2% kRate in that stretch hasn’t been overly high, but it's pretty close to league average. So, while the strikeout upside is limited overall, Alexander should still stitch together a quality start this evening.

Trey Yesavage (RHP), TOR | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.3k | at TB

We’ve got a top prospect making his big league debut tonight in Trey Yesavage. The 22-year-old righty was drafted just last year as the 20th overall pick. He has been blazing through the Blue Jays’ minor league system and now looks like he may be a part of Toronto’s postseason plan. Yesavage is the top overall prospect for Toronto and the #25 overall prospect in baseball (per MLB.com). Across 98.0 IP in Low-A, High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A, Yesavage has thoroughly impressed with a 3.12 ERA, 2.54 xFIP, .156 opp AVG, 0.97 WHIP, and a towering 41.1% kRate. As for his arsenal, Yesavage has a fastball that usually sits in the 93-95 mph range and can touch 97, playing up because of his high release point and strong carry through the zone. He mixes in a slider/cutter, a curveball, and a splitter that stands out as a true weapon with late depth and plenty of swing-and-miss potential. Most scouts view Yesavage as a strong #3 starter with back-end #2 starter upside in a big league rotation. Reportedly, Yesavage will not have any workload limitations for his MLB debut.

It’s not the easiest spot for a young prospect making his first start in the bigs. He’ll be on the road versus an offense with some dangerous hitters sprinkled throughout the lineup. But, if we’re looking at recent sample sizes, the Rays have only been a bit above average against RHPs L2Weeks, based on their 106 wRC+ in that span (ranks 12th), and their 22.5% kRate has been right at league average (15th). There will always be some added risk attached to any pitching prospect making their MLB debut, regardless of matchup, but if Yesavage lives up to his billing and pedigree, then he could put forth a successful outing this evening.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI | DK: $9k, FD: $10.3k | at LAD

Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.9k | vs. PHI

Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.4k | at HOU

Sean Burke (RHP), CWS | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8k | vs. BAL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Joe Boyle (RHP), TB

Joe Boyle’s rough stretch of starts resulted in him being demoted to the minor leagues, but he has since been recalled to make a spot start tonight. He hasn’t pitched in an MLB game in nearly a month, but across his last five big league starts, Boyle has struggled to a 9.68 ERA, 6.00 xFIP, .312 opp AVG, .434 opp wOBA, 2.21 WHIP, 2.50 HR/9 Rate, and 55.9% Left-on-Base%. Ugly stuff. He is decent from a strikeout perspective (22.5% kRate L5Starts), but the Blue Jays are among the most difficult lineups to strike out.

Toronto has also simply been one of the best offenses in MLB of late. Against RHPs L2Weeks, they’re 3rd in AVG (.296), OPS (.865), wOBA (.368), and wRC+ (138) while ranking 5th in ISO (.209). Steinbrenner Field has also ranked as the #10 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season, and the Rays’ bullpen has been a touch below-average in recent weeks, so that is a couple more factors working in the favor of a Blue Jays stack.

Favorite TOR Bats: George Springer, Daulton Varsho, Vlad Guerrero Jr.

Bargain Bats: Ernie Clement, Davis Schneider

New York Yankees vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

The Yankees top the slate with a 5.1 implied run total. They don’t head in in stellar form (103 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks), but we know this team has the tendency to really pop and brings ample HR upside to the table. They do lead all MLB teams, by a wide margin, in HRs (46), ISO (.247), and HR/FB Rate (21.6%) against RHPs over the last month.

That should play well versus Simeon Woods Richardson, who owns a slate-high 51.4% FlyBall%. Across his last five starts, SWR has put up a 6.75 ERA, 5.43 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, 2.50 HR/9 Rate, 13.4% BB%, and 18.2% HR/FB Rate. His recent struggles with walks could lead to multiple multi-run HRs for this Yanks lineup this evening. The Twins’ bullpen has also been terrible, posting an MLB-worst 7.95 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, and .318 opp AVG over the last two weeks, so there is plenty of upside for this Yankees stack even when Woods Richardson is taken off the mound.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Giancarlo Stanton

Bargain Bat: Jose Caballero

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

Eight of nine hitters in the projected Phillies lineup have a ≤ 11% pOwn%. Emmet Sheehan has been on a roll (0.98 WHIP, 32.5% kRate L5Starts), but the Phillies have also been crushing right-handed pitching. They lead the MLB in AVG (.331), OPS (.972), wOBA (.411), and wRC+ (164) against RHPs L2Weeks while posting a 17.7% HR/FB Rate. The Dodgers’ bullpen has also had some issues of late, posting the 10th worst ERA (4.84) L2Weeks.

Favorite PHI Bats: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Harrison Bader

Bargain Bat: Brandon Marsh

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

3B Junior Caminero, TB vs. Trey Yesavage (RHP), TOR

OF George Springer, TOR vs. Joe Boyle (RHP), TB

SS Mookie Betts, LAD vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

2B Jackson Holliday, BAL vs. Sean Burke (RHP), CWS

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX vs. Jason Alexander (RHP), HOU

SS Colson Montgomery, CWS vs. Kyle Bradish (RHP), BAL

C Gabriel Moreno, ARI vs. Kai-Wei Teng (RHP), SF

3B Matt Chapman, SF vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Harrison Bader, PHI vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

C Ivan Herrera, STL vs. Zack Littell (RHP), CIN

OF Tyler O’Neill, BAL vs. Sean Burke (RHP), CWS

1B/OF Alec Burleson, STL vs. Zack Littell (RHP), CIN

3B/SS Jose Caballero, NYY vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

OF Brandon Marsh, PHI vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

OF Davis Schneider, TOR vs. Joe Boyle (RHP), TB

1B Jake Burger, TEX vs. Jason Alexander (RHP), HOU

OF Austin Martin, MIN vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

C Yainer Diaz, HOU vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

3B/SS Ernie Clement, TOR vs. Joe Boyle (RHP), TB

C Patrick Bailey, SF vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!