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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A dozen games reside on the Friday main slate docket! We have only two more Friday slates remaining in the MLB regular season, which concludes in 16 days on Sunday, September 28th. So, enjoy these big, busy slates while we’ve got ‘em! Today’s slate just about has it all, from aces to viable value pitchers and plenty of stack-worthy offenses. The only things that this slate is missing are a Coors Field game and weather issues. But I believe we’ll be just fine without those! Let’s jump into the action. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣9/12 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• NYY at BOS (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): Cooler temps in the low-60s with light winds IN from right.

• TEX at NYM (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Light ~5 mph winds OUT to left.

• CWS at CLE (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Light ~5mph winds IN from right/center.

• ARI at MIN (8:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): This is the only spot where rain seems like a possibility. But risk isn’t overly high here. There may be a few showers in the area around the time of first pitch; worst-case scenario looks like a late start. 5-10 mph winds IN from right/center.

• CIN at ATH (10:05 ET, 10.5 O/U): 80 degrees at first pitch with 10 mph winds OUT to left. Best hitting environment on the slate.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $12k, FD: $11k | at MIA

It’s a steep price to pay for Skubal, but, on a 12-game slate, finding value elsewhere won’t be a major challenge. Skubal had a couple of dud outings in the first half of August, but he has since rebounded in a big way. Across his last four starts, Skuball has pitched to a superb 0.33 ERA, 2.98 xFIP, .167 opp AVG, 0.76 WHIP, and 31.7% kRate.

Skubal draws a positive matchup on the road against the Marlins this evening. Miami has the most plate appearances (401) against LHPs over the last month, but they haven’t done a ton of damage against those lefties -- .230 AVG (ranks 22nd), .668 OPS (22nd), .292 wOBA (24th), and 84 wRC+ (23rd). Their 20.9% kRate in that span isn’t overly high, but close to league-average. And, of course, the lefty pitchers that Miami has gone up against in recent weeks are nowhere close to Skubal’s skill level. If you can find some cheap bats you’re comfortable with (or a value SP2 on DK), Skubal should be a priority target on today’s slate.

Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.3k | vs. BAL

Bassitt has had his fair share of poor starts throughout this season, but he heads into tonight’s game in some fine form. Across his last four starts, Bassitt has pitched to a quality 2.42 ERA, 3.48 xFIP, .214 opp AVG, 0.40 HR/9 Rate, and 26.0% kRate. Surprisingly, three of those last four games have been on the road. I say “surprisingly” because Bassitt has posted some extreme home/road splits this season, and is generally much, much better at home (+69.0% more FPPG at home). Here’s a quick rundown on his splits from this season:

Home (88.0 IP): 2.76 ERA, 3.42 xFIP, 1.20 WHIP, 85.9% Left-on-Base%, 1.02 HR/9 Rate, 25.6% kRate.

Away (73.0 IP): 5.42 ERA, 4.37 xFIP, 1.47 WHIP, 67.2% Left-on-Base%, 1.48 HR/9 Rate, 19.1% kRate.

Some pitchers just aren’t built to perform well on the road, and Bassitt has been one of those guys this season (and in plenty of previous seasons).

The matchup also sets up well for Bassitt today. The O’s have ranked bottom 10 in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO (3rd worst), and wRC+ against RHPs over the last two weeks. More notably, their 28.7% kRate is the highest strikeout rate in baseball during that stretch. So, all signs point toward a “good version of Chris Bassitt” day.

Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.6k | vs. LAA

In his age-32 season, Luis Castillo may no longer fit the bill of an ace, but he has still had plenty of great outings this season (along with plenty of poor ones). He was riding a four-start struggle streak before getting back on track in his last outing against Atlanta (6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 ER, 6 K). Castillo is also another pitcher who tends to be at his best at home (+37.5% more FPPG). Here’s his quick splits:

Home (87.0 IP): 2.79 ERA, 3.96 xFIP, .206 opp AVG, 1.05 WHIP, 23.6% kRate.

Away (74.1 IP): 5.09 ERA, 4.39 xFIP, .314 opp AVG, 1.53 WHIP, 18.7% kRate.

There are some major discrepancies there. And, due to some recent struggles over the last month, we’re getting Castillo at a very affordable price point today.

The Angels head in ranking 23rd or worse in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks, and their 28.6% kRate is the second-highest in that span, just behind the aforementioned Orioles. The Mariners (-181 ML) are heavy favorites tonight, and motivation should not be an issue. They are neck-and-neck with the Astros in the AL West, with both teams owning a 79-68 record. This will be one of the more entertaining divisional races to watch unfold over these final two weeks of the regular season. And we can look for Castillo to deliver a strong outing tonight.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $10k, FD: $10.6k | at SF

Hurston Waldrep (RHP), ATL | DK: $9k, FD: $9.7k | vs. HOU

Quinn Priester (RHP), MIL | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.4k | vs. STL

Jonah Tong (RHP), NYM | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.2k | vs. TEX

JP Sears (LHP), ATH | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.9k | vs. COL

Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA | DK: $6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. DET

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

The Brew Crew has been a top-five offense versus RHPs L2Weeks, boasting a .281 AVG, .787 OPS, .343 wOBA, and 121 wRC+ over that stretch. Meanwhile, Andre Pallante heads in with some awful form. Spanning his last six starts, Pallante has pitched to an 8.36 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, .342 opp AVG, .417 opp wOBA, 1.60 HR/9 Rate, and 17.6% kRate. He is also bottom 20th percentile in average exit velo (90.9 mph) over that span.

Favorite MIL Bats: Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich

Bargain Bat: Caleb Durbin, Jake Bauers/Rhys Hoskins

Seattle Mariners vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

Kikuchi has been in some rough form and will be catching the Mariners’ offense in the midst of a hot streak. Over his previous five starts, Kikuchi has pitched to a 9.13 ERA, 5.46 xFIP, .319 opp AVG, .428 opp wOBA, 1.81 WHIP, 2.40 HR/9 Rate, and 15.9% kRate.

The Mariners have been excellent against LHPs lately, hitting .311 with an .870 OPS, .366 wOBA, 140 wRC+, and 18.1% over the L2Weeks. Across 125 plate appearances versus Kikuchi, this current Seattle roster owns a .342 wOBA against him. That may not be an elite BvP wOBA, but Kikuchi has generally been a better pitcher in previous meetings, and he’s certainly not playing at his best heading into tonight. The Angels have also had a bottom-10 bullpen over the last month.

Favorite SEA Bats: Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor

Bargain Bats: Jorge Polanco, Victor Robles

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Minnesota Twins vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

Every hitter in the confirmed Twins lineup has a < 8% pOwn%. Pfaadt has been terrible on the road this season, where he averages 81.3% less FPPG and owns a 7.13 ERA, .301 opp AVG, .388 opp wOBA, 2.42 HR/9 Rate, and 17.4% kRate. Pfaadt will be backed by a D-Backs bullpen that has put up the 6th-worst ERA (5.70) over the last two weeks.

The Twins' offense has been pretty average of late, but a lack of production from the back end of the lineup has been bringing the overall numbers down quite a bit. Several guys in the top half of the order have been hitting the baseball well, and, to state the obvious, those are generally the MIN bats we’ll look to stack up for some leverage today.

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Luke Keaschall, Royce Lewis

Bargain Bats: Trevor Larnach, Austin Martin, Matt Wallner

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), BOS

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Jacob deGrom (RHP), TEX

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Brady Singer (RHP), CIN

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Martin Perez (LHP), CWS

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP), COL

1B Rafael Devers, SF vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), BAL

SS Mookie Betts, LAD vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), SF

OF Jurickson Profar, ATL vs. Jayden Murray (RHP), HOU

OF Randy Arozarena, SEA vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

SS Trevor Story, BOS vs. Luis Gil (RHP), NYY

2B Brice Turang, MIL vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX vs. Jonah Tong (RHP), NYM

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. Hurston Waldrep (RHP), ATL

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. JP Sears (LHP), ATH

2B Jackson Holiday, BAL vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

SS Colson Montgomery, CWS vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

2B Jorge Polanco, SEA vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

OF Michael Helman, TEX vs. Jonah Tong (RHP), NYM

SS Jacob Wilson, ATH vs. Brady Singer (RHP), CIN

OG TJ Friedl, CIN vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

3B Royce Lewis, MIN vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

OF Austin Martin, MIN vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

OF Gavin Sheets, SD vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP), COL

C Gabriel Moreno, ARI vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN

OF Andrew Benintendi, CWS vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

1B Jake Burger, TEX vs. Jonah Tong (RHP), NYM

OF Victor Robles, SEA vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

1B/OF Jake Bauers, MIL vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

C Freddy Fermin, SD vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP), COL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!