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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ve got ourselves a smaller MLB slate ahead on this Thursday evening with six games over on DraftKings and five games on FanDuel. DK will include the WAS at MIA game (6:40 ET start) on their main slate, while FD has elected to exclude that matchup. This slate isn’t particularly strong on either side -- pitching or offense -- so it’s going to be more of a challenge to find the right pieces. But we’ll try to crack the code, nonetheless! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣9/11 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

Once again, nothing really stands out as far as the weather goes today. A quiet weather day is a good weather day!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.9k | vs. NYM

Luzardo is pretty easily the class of the field among SPs on this slate. Over his last eight starts, he has boasted a 2.64 ERA, 3.46 xFIP, .191 opp AVG, 0.97 WHIP, and 28.7% kRate. He has upped his strikeout rate to 33.9% over his last five starts. The BvP history is also extensive and pretty solid. In 167 plate appearances versus the current Mets roster, Luzardo has held them to a pedestrian .252 AVG and .300 wOBA with a quality 24.6% kRate. Luzardo is also 95th percentile in average exit velo (83.8 mph) over the last month, so he has been inducing plenty of softly hit batted balls.

Despite the solid BvP history Luzardo has on the Mets, the matchup isn’t a particularly risk-free one. The Mets have been hitting lefties very well over the last month (316 PAs) -- in that time against LHPs, they’ve posted a .299 AVG, .899 OPS, .384 wOBA, .230 ISO, and 152 wRC+. Scary numbers, for sure, if you’re Luzardo. The Mets have put up a higher-than-average 23.7% kRate vs. LHPs in that span, so the strikeout upside is there. When it’s all said and done, Luzardo may end up taking some damage in this matchup, but it’s not likely to be a blow-up outing, and the Ks should be there. For reference, Luzardo’s strikeout prop is at 6.5 today, which, for what it’s worth, he has gone over (7+ Ks) in 11 of his last 16 starts. Luzardo’s kRate has also been a bit higher at home (29.7%) this season versus on the road (26.4%).

Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.5k | vs. DET

Before Schlittler ran into the stingy Blue Jays offense in his last outing, the 24-year-old righty pitching in his debut season was rolling along with six consecutive starts of allowing two earned runs or fewer. The four runs he allowed to Toronto, en route to an early hook after 1.2 IP, was the first time he gave up more than three runs in an MLB start. With six days to put that last outing behind him, he sets up as a strong bounce-back candidate today. Since debuting on July 9th, Schlittler has put together a strong inaugural MLB season, which is supported by his 3.24 ERA, 3.81 xFIP, and 26.4% kRate. The quality of his pitches has been elite. He owns a 117 Stuff+ Rating, which is third among all MLB starters with at least 50.0 IP this season. Schlittler’s 97.9 mph average fastball velo also grades out at the 95th percentile of all MLB pitchers.

The Tigers have some big sluggers in the lineup, but they’ve been much more of an average offense of late. Against RHPs L2Weeks (307 PAs), they’re mid-pack with a .703 OPS and 97 wRC+ with a high 24.1% kRate. Schlittler throws a fastball-centric pitch mix, tossing either the four-seamer (56.5% USG%) or cutter (20.2% USG%) on over 75% of his pitches. That mix could play well in this matchup as the Tigers have posted the 9th-highest Whiff% against four-seamers and cutters this season. There is still some risk attached to the young righty, but also ample upside.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9k | vs. KC

Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.8k | at SEA

Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.2k | vs. LAA

DraftKings Main Slate Only

Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA | DK: $7.7k, FD: N/A | vs. WAS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees vs. Tyler Holton (LHP)/Sawyer Gipson-Long (RHP), DET

Lefty Tyler Holton is scheduled to serve as Detroit’s opener today with RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long expected to follow as the bulk reliever. Since SGL should pitch around four or five innings, we’ll focus on him for this matchup. SGL only has 29.0 IP under his belt this season, but the results have not been promising -- 5.59 ERA, 19.5% kRate, 12.5% Barrel%, 40.9% HardHit%, and 1.86 HR/9 Rate. He has actually held opponents to a middling .243 AVG with a solid 1.14 WHIP, but he hasn’t been a big strikeout guy, and the big hits (home runs) have been plaguing him.

The Yankees’ offense has slowed a bit recently, but they still check in at either 1st or 2nd in MLB in OPS (.824), wOBA (.352), ISO (.247), and wRC+ (127) over the last month. They’ve mashed an MLB-best 59 home runs in that span, 47 of which came off the arms of right-handed pitchers. I guess those torpedo bats, that no one ever talks about anymore, have been doing their jobs! Since this Yankees lineup is reliant on the long ball, it does feel like more of an “all or nothing” stack. But when things click for this group, the REALLY click.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Cody Bellinger

Bargain Bat: Austin Slater

Philadelphia Phillies vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

The Phillies are missing a couple of starters (Trea Turner and Alec Bohm), but they’ll still look to be in a solid spot today. They’ve ranked top 10 against LHPs over the last month in OPS, wOBA, ISO, wRC+, and HR/FB Rate. The Phillies have also ranked as the #2 home offense in baseball, averaging 5.42 runs/gm at Citizens Bank Park (#10 most hitter-friendly ballpark).

Meanwhile, David Peterson heads in with a 7.77 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, .296 opp AVG, and .342 opp wOBA over his last five starts. He hasn’t had much success against this lineup and, across 129 PAs versus the Phillies roster, he has allowed a .307 AVG and .362 wOBA. The Mets’ bullpen has also been a bit of an Achilles’ heel lately and has put up a 5.73 ERA (4th-worst) over the L2Weeks.

Favorite PHI Bats: Kyle Schwarber, Harrison Bader, Bryce Harper

Bargain Bat: Edmundo Sosa, JT Realmuto

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Angels vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

Eight of nine hitters in the projected Angels lineup have a < 8% pOwn%. The Angels' offense has not been hitting for average whatsoever, but there is still some solid pop and home run upside with several guys in the lineup, and they’ve also been aggressive on the bases with a dozen stolen bases L2Weeks (ranks 7th). But the real draw here is Bryce Miller’s inability to “get it together,” and Miller also carries a 30% pOwn% on this slate (DraftKings).

Spanning his last eight starts, Miller has struggled to a 7.09 ERA, 5.20 xFIP, .278 opp AVG, .365 opp wOBA, and 2.50 HR/9 Rate with a meager 12.6% kRate. Miller was one of the better starting pitchers in baseball a season ago, so the downfall has been tough to watch. He is simply getting shelled lately, and has allowed a ridiculous 95.2 mph average exit velo (bottom 5th percentile) and ten barreled balls (bottom 10%) over the last month. The Mariners do boast a strong bullpen, so much of the damage that the Angels manage may need to come against Miller. But the Mariners also burned through six relievers in last night’s extra innings game that went 13 frames, so at least some of those guys likely won’t be available to pitch tonight.

Favorite LAA Bats: Jo Adell, Mike Trout, Zach Neto

Bargain Bat: Yoan Moncada

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Tyler Holton (LHP)/Sawyer Gipson-Long (RHP), DET

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Stephen Kolek (RHP), KC

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD vs. McCade Brown (RHP), COL

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Randy Vasquez (RHP), SD

1B Spencer Torkelson, DET vs. Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY

OF Jo Adell, LAA vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

DraftKings Main Slate Only One-Offs

OF James Wood, WAS vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA

OF Jakob Marsee, MIA vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

1B Ryan O’Hearn, SD vs. McCade Brown (RHP), COL

OF Gavin Sheets, SD vs. McCade Brown (RHP), COL

C JT Realmuto, PHI vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

OF Harrison Bader, PHI vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

3B Yoan Moncada, LAA vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

OF Austin Slater, NYY vs. Tyler Holton (LHP)/Sawyer Gipson-Long (RHP), DET

OF Parker Meadows, DET vs. Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY

2B/SS Edmundo Sosa, PHI vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

2B/OF Chris Taylor, LAA vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

DraftKings Main Slate Only Bargain Bats

1B Josh Bell, WAS vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA

OF Daylen Lile, WAS vs. Ryan Weathers (LHP), MIA

OF Joey Wiemer, MIA vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!