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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

This evening’s main slate will vary considerably depending on your DFS site of choice. DraftKings will feature seven games, beginning at 7:05 ET. FanDuel will include the four games in the 6:00 p.m. ET window, bringing their main slate total up to eleven games with a 6:35 p.m. ET start time. For newsletter purposes, I’ll stick to spotlighting only players and stacks from the seven mutually shared games between the two sites. But I’ll still list off some favorable “FanDuel main slate only” plays at the bottom of each section! Let’s dig into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣9/10 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

There are no rain issues expected anywhere this evening, and there aren’t even any notable wind conditions worth mentioning. We’ll take it!

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.2k | vs. STL

This slate is not lacking aces or ace-adjacent pitchers, that’s for sure. Deciding which one to roll with is the tricky part, as many of these guys project similarly. Logan Gilbert gets the nod from me. He’s had his struggles on the road at times, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find anyone who has the type of insane home splits that Gilbert possesses. Here’s a quick rundown on his home/road splits from this season:

Home (58.2 IP): 2.15 ERA, 1.88 xFIP, .141 opp AVG, 0.70 WHIP, 0.92 HR/9 Rate, 40.2% kRate

Away (51.0 IP): 5.29 ERA, 3.63 xFIP, .271 opp AVG, 1.39 WHIP, 1.76 HR/9 Rate, 27.9% kRate

The sub-2.00 xFIP and 40+% kRate are the two metrics that really jump off the page. He also averages +60.4% more FPPG at home.

The Cardinals did do some damage against Seattle’s starter, George Kirby, yesterday. They were able to chase Kirby off after only 4.0 IP by way of three runs and seven hits in his time on the mound. But this Cardinals offense has still been among the worst offenses versus RHPs L2Weeks: .215 AVG, .629 OPS, 78 wRC+, and 27.2% kRate, which are all bottom-five figures in baseball during that stretch. As long as the dominant “home Gilbert” shows up tonight, he’ll be in the running as the highest-scoring pitcher on this slate.

Nick Pivetta (RHP), SD | DK: $9k, FD: $10k | vs. CIN

Pivetta is another top-flight SP who has found more success in the pitcher-friendly confines of their West Coast home ballpark. The splits haven’t been as stark as Gilbert’s, but they are quite noticeable, nonetheless.

Home (90.1 IP): 2.39 ERA, 3.51 xFIP, .171 opp AVG, 0.83 WHIP, 29.1% kRate

Away (74.0 IP): 3.41 ERA, 4.18 xFIP, .216 opp AVG, 1.12 WHIP, 23.6% kRate

Pivetta’s road numbers certainly aren’t bad, but the significant bump in his strikeout rate at home is the eye-catching factor here.

Pivetta is also catching a Reds offense that isn’t in top form. Versus RHPs L2Weeks, they’re hitting for a subpar .231 AVG with a 96 wRC+ and a hefty 27.3% kRate. The Reds have shown some power in this split, based on their .195 ISO, but Petco Park isn’t a great environment for home runs (21st in HR factor rating). Pivetta does have some concerning statcast data posted over the last month, but we’ll look past that for now and hone in on his high strikeout upside versus a currently strikeout-prone Reds lineup.

Joe Rock (RHP), TB | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | at CWS

You almost certainly want to spend up at SP on this slate because the value options are pretty ugly. This is a sizable gamble here, and basically only an option on DraftKings as a min-priced SP2 punt play. RHP Ryan Pepiot was originally scheduled to pitch for the Rays today, but he was removed as the starter due to fatigue. As a backup plan, the Rays will use RHP Griffin Jax as an opener. Currently, Joe Rock is listed as the “probable long reliever,” though there is currently no guarantee he will pitch in this game, but it would make sense.

Rock, who was recalled from Triple-A this past Saturday, has only appeared in two MLB games this season, but both appearances have resulted in him covering multiple innings on 45+ pitches. It’s clearly a small sample size, but he has posted a huge 39.1% kRate across his five innings. In his last outing (7/31 at NYY), Rock covered three shutout innings on 48 pitches while allowing only two hits and striking out five, which was good for 15.55 DKFP. Rock has spent time alternating between starting and relieving in Triple-A this season, and his 21.0% kRate at the Triple-A level across 95.1 IP is much less impressive than what he’s shown during his brief cup of coffee in the big leagues. But if he ends up covering three or four innings in this game, it won’t be too difficult for him to pay off his $4,000 DK salary. Again, it’s a significant risk as he may not even pitch in this game, so Rock should only be rolled out as a total punt play in aggressive GPP builds where you’re looking to go heavy on big, pricey bats and/or a top-end SP1.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $10k, FD: $10.7k | vs. CHC

Blake Snell (LHP), LAD | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.1k | vs. COL

Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.1k | vs. HOU

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT | DK: N/A, FD: $10.8k | at BAL

Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI | DK: N/A, FD: $10.5k | vs. NYM

Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL | DK: N/A, FD: $7,600 | vs. PIT

Eury Perez (RHP), MIA | DK: N/A, FD: $7.2k | vs. WAS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Seattle Mariners (Bump to LHBs) vs. Michael McGreevy (RHP), STL

The Mariners have been crushing the ball this past week and lead MLB with a .378 wOBA and 150 wRC+ over the last seven days, and they’re 2nd in ISO (.249). Meanwhile, Michael McGreevy just got rocked by the Giants in his last outing to the tune of six ER on nine hits (two HRs) across four innings. He is in the bottom 10th percentile in barrels allowed L30Days as well. Mariners LHBs should also get a bump in this matchup as McGreevy has been much worse against that side of the plate. Against LHBs this season, McGreevy has allowed a .326 AVG, .390 wOBA, .212 ISO, 1.54 WHIP, and 1.69 HR/9 Rate -- all much worse figures than his splits versus RHBs. We still won’t ignore the Mariners’ righty hitters, but the LHBs should get some preferential treatment.

Favorite SEA Bats: Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, Julio Rodriguez, Jorge Polanco

Bargain Bat: Leo Rivas, JP Crawford

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), LAD

The Dodgers lineup still isn’t clicking top-to-bottom, but the “big three” hitters (Ohtani, Betts, Freeman) are seeing the ball very well recently, so, while they’ve often been a default stack throughout this season, they remain firmly on the DFS radar nonetheless. Who knows what got into Kyle Freeland’s system in his last start (8.0 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 0 ER, 10 K), but, to state the obvious, it’s unlikely he strings together back-to-back impressive outings. Across his last seven road starts, Freeland has pitched to a 5.59 ERA, 4.70 xFIP, .288 opp AVG, .370 opp wOBA, 2.40 HR/9 Rate, and 16.5% kRate. This Dodgers team has seen plenty of Freeland over the years and, across 212 plate appearances, the current LAD roster owns a quality .343 wOBA against him. And, as usual, a big part of stacking against the Rockies is getting the chance to have some at-bats against an awful Rockies bullpen. Over the L2Weeks, the Rockies’ pen owns a 5.74 ERA, .297 opp AVG, 1.61 WHIP, and an MLB-high 2.53 HR/9 Rate.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman

Bargain Bat: Miguel Rojas

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago White Sox vs. Rays Bullpen

Every hitter in the confirmed CWS lineup has a < 8% pOwn%. With Ryan Pepiot getting his scheduled start nixed today due to fatigue, it’s looking like a bullpen day for the Rays. Admittedly, I don’t love stacking teams when they’re expected to face a bunch of relievers, as that can oftentimes keep hitters off balance since they’re seeing different “stuff” every one or two innings. The Rays’ bullpen is also a quality group that has been pitching well. But the White Sox once again have some guys hitting it well themselves and, overall, they’ve been a top 10 offense over the last week, ranking 10th or better in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ in that span. If they’re going to go overlooked, I have no issues putting together a small two or three-man CWS stack for some solid leverage as well as some salary savings, since all of these hitters range from “affordable” to “dirt cheap.”

Favorite CWS Bats: Kyle Teel, Colson Montgomery, Andrew Benintendi

Bargain Bats: Mike Tauchman, Lenyn Sosa, Chase Meidroth

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Jack Flaherty (RHP), DET

3B Junior Caminero, TB vs. Sean Burke (RHP), CWS

1B Josh Naylor, SEA vs. Michael McGreevy (RHP), STL

OF Daulton Varsho, TOR vs. Jason Alexander (RHP), HOU

1B Matt Olson, ATL vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Blake Snell (LHP), LAD

2B Gleyber Torres, DET vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

OF Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Ramon Laureano, SD vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

C Kyle Teel, CWS vs. Rays Bullpen

1B/OF Alec Burleson, STL vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

FanDuel Main Slate Only One-Offs

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI vs. Clay Holmes (RHP), NYM

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Jonathan Bowlan (RHP), KC

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Logan Allen (LHP), CLE

SS CJ Abrams, WAS vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA

OF Jakob Marsee, MIA vs. Jake Irvin (LHP), WAS

2B/SS Jackson Holiday, BAL vs. Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT vs. Tyler Wells (RHP), BAL

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

2B Ozzie Albies, ATL vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

3B Carlos Correa, HOU vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Mike Tauchman, CWS vs. Rays Bullpen

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC vs. Chris Sale (LHP), ATL

OF Andrew Benintendi, CWS vs. Rays Bullpen

1B Christian Walker, HOU vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

2B/SS Leo Rivas, SEA vs. Michael McGreevy (RHP), STL

OF Jahmai Jones, DET vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

SS JP Crawford, SEA vs. Michael McGreevy (RHP), STL

2B/3B Miguel Rojas, LAD vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Joey Loperfido, TOR vs. Jason Alexander (RHP), HOU

FanDuel Main Slate Only Bargain Bats

3B Mark Vientos, NYM vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

2B/SS Bryson Stott, PHI vs. Clay Holmes (RHP), NYM

OF Harrison Bader, PHI vs. Clay Holmes (RHP), NYM

2B/SS Otto Lopez, MIA vs. Jake Irvin (LHP), WAS

OF Daylen Lile, WAS vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA

SS/2B/3B Maximo Acosta, MIA vs. Jake Irvin (LHP), WAS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!