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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Following a quiet MLB Thursday, we’re set to get rocked by a massive 14-game Friday main slate! As is typically the case on a slate of this magnitude, there are plenty of sensible directions we can go in for both starting pitching and hitters/stacks categories. Weather also looks to be a non-issue, which is a rarity for a 14-gamer. This is a big boy slate, and there is much to break down and decipher, so let’s waste no time and dive right into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣8/8 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• LAA at DET (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Low-80s temps with 5-10 mph winds IN from center/left.

• CLE at CWS (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Mid-80s temps with 10 mph winds IN  from center/right.

• KC at MIN (8:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Any significant rain should hold off until after the game. It will be warm, with temps in the mid-to-upper 80s, but there will also be some 10+ mph winds blowing IN from right for much of the evening.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $11.6k, FD: $11k | vs. LAA

On a 14-game slate, finding ample value bats isn’t much of a challenge, so that makes spending all the way up on Tarik Skubal even more of a viable approach than usual. After another elite season up to this point (2.18 ERA, 2.36 xFIP, 0.83 WHIP, 34.0% kRate, 3.6% BB%), Skubal finds himself as the heavy favorite (-700 odds) to repeat as the AL Cy Young Award winner. He has been downright filthy and is capable of mowing down any Major League offense.

I doubt anyone needs much convincing when it comes to slotting Skubal into some lineups, but he should shine in this matchup today. The Angels own a hefty 28.5% kRate versus LHPs over their last 20 games. Against Skubal’s primary pitch mix -- changeup, four-seamer, sinker -- the Angels own the lowest batting average in MLB (.220), second-lowest wOBA (.281), and highest strikeout rate (24.8%). And, keep in mind, they’re normally not seeing those pitch types from LHPs that are nearly as talented as Skubal. In his only other meeting with the Angels this season, back on May 2nd, Skubal needed just 73 pitches to cover six innings of one-run baseball while striking out eight batters. I do not recall the reasoning for pulling Skubal early in that game, but, assuming he throws his usual mid-90s pitch count workload, a ceiling performance is well within the realm of possibilities tonight. To no surprise, the Tigers (-294 ML) are also the heaviest favorites on this slate.

Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.4k | at TEX

Perhaps you don’t want to pay top dollar for a guy like Skubal, but still want ace-caliber pitching, then Cristopher Sanchez fits the bill. Sanchez has had 22 starts this season but has truly only had a couple of dud performances, so he has been as consistent as any top-flight arm in baseball. He will head into start No. 23 with a 2.40 ERA, 2.82 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, and 26.0% kRate. Sanchez has also been elite at keeping the ball on the ground and is 4th among qualified MLB pitchers with a 58.4% GroundBall% this season.

We will also love the matchup as the Rangers typically struggle against lefties while also striking out a ton. Against LHPs over the last month (294 PAs), the Rangers own a .669 OPS, 86 wRC+, and an MLB-high 29.6% kRate. In that same span, they’ve also posted the 6th-highest groundball rate against LHPs, which plays directly into one of Sanchez’s strengths. In a mild surprise, Globe Life Field has also ranked as the No. 1 most pitcher-friendly ballpark in MLB this season. Overall, we should have a safe DFS floor here with Sanchez alongside some outstanding strikeout upside.

JT Ginn (RHP), ATH | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.1k | at BAL

After spotlighting a pair of top-end pitchers, we’ll roll the dice on a cheap guy to close out this section. JT Ginn has split time as a starter and long reliever this season, and this will be his fourth consecutive start since re-entering the rotation. He built up to 85 pitches in his last outing six days ago, so he should be set to handle a typical starter’s workload, or close to it. Across his 48.1 IP this season, the results have been serviceable for Ginn. His 4.28 ERA isn’t pretty, but his 3.51 xFIP is a solid mark and tells us that he has pitched better than the ERA would indicate. He also owns a respectable 24.1% kRate this season and has forced a high 53.7% GroundBall%. Ginn’s 113 Pitching+ rating is 34th among all MLB pitchers with at least 40.0 IP this season -- this Pitching+ metric indicates that he has been very good at the MLB level when considering both his “stuff” and his pitch location.

The matchup is also intriguing. The Orioles were sellers at the deadline and traded away four hitters (Ramon Laureano, Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Ramon Urias) who were either everyday hitters or key platoon guys. It’s a small sample size, but against RHPs since the trade deadline, the Orioles are hitting for a paltry .173 AVG with a .454 OPS, .214 wOBA, .031 ISO, 33 wRC+, and 26.9% kRate. Awful stuff. They have several hitters, who would otherwise be in the lineup today, currently on the IL, and OF Tyler O’Neil is also considered day-to-day with a wrist injury. So, this offense is not at full strength, to say the least, and has shown plenty of struggles in the post-trade-deadline era thus far. As a result, we could get a sneaky-good game out of JT Ginn in this spot. There is at least enough working in his favor to keep him in on the DFS radar, particularly as an SP2 candidate on DraftKings.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.3k, FD: $9.9k | vs. NYM

Nick Pivetta (RHP), SD | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10k | vs. BOS

Matthew Boyd (LHP), CHC | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.4k | at STL

Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.2k | at ATL

Aaron Civale (RHP), CWS | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.5k | vs. CLE

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Detroit Tigers vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

The Tigers are gradually getting back into form at the plate. Over their last 10 games against RHPs (233 PAs), they’ve been a top offense, ranking 5th or better in AVG (.287), OPS (.853), wOBA (.361), ISO (.270), and wRC+ (132). Strikeouts have been an issue, with a 27.0% kRate in that same sample size, but that will be less of a concern today in this matchup.

Kyle Hendricks is the complete opposite of a strikeout pitcher, with just a 15.4% kRate and 7.5% SwStr% on the season. The kRate has dipped even lower, to 12.2%, over his last five starts. Instead, Hendricks relies on getting soft contact outs. However, he hasn’t been doing a great job at that lately. Over the last month, Hendricks has allowed a high 39.7% HardContact%, 91.0 mph average exit velo (bottom 20th percentile), and 193.5 feet average batted ball distance (bottom 20th percentile) with just a 6.3% SoftContact%. Hendricks also primarily throws changeups and sinkers, which make up over 75% of his pitches. That could be bad news [for Hendricks] against this Tigers lineup, which ranks 2nd in AVG (.286), 1st in wOBA (.361), and 1st in ISO (.193) against RHP changeups and sinkers this season. Hendricks had a nice outing against Detroit back on May 3rd, throwing 7.2 innings of one-run baseball, but I would not expect a repeat performance this evening.

Favorite DET Bats: Kerry Carpenter, Gleyber Torres, Riley Greene

Bargain Bats: Wenceel Perez, Colt Keith, Zach McKinstry

Athletics vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), BAL

The A’s have been back to their hot-hitting ways, for the most part, lately and head into this evening with a .286 AVG, .875 OPS, .374 wOBA, .241 ISO, and 138 wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks (328 PAs). Oriole Park has also ranked as the #3 most hitter-friendly venue in baseball this season, and the A’s draw an appetizing pitching matchup.

Tomoyuki Sugano has had some solid outings, but those were mostly frontloaded to the start of the season. For the most part, he has had trouble adjusting to MLB-caliber hitters since coming over from Japan’s NPB league, where he spent the first seven years of his professional career. Dating back to June 8th, Sugano has stumbled to a 6.70 ERA, 5.11 xFIP, 1.79 WHIP, .319 opp AVG, .384 opp wOBA, and 1.90 HR/9 Rate while striking out just 17.2% of batters. Sugano will be backed up by a subpar O’s bullpen that has put up a 4.82 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and 2.73 HR/9 Rate over the last two weeks.

Favorite ATH Bats: Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom

Bargain Bat: Carlos Cortes

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Colorado Rockies vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

Every hitter in the projected Rockies lineup has a < 5% pOwn%. By 14-game slate standards, Zac Gallen is looking like he’ll be a fairly popular SP target with a 15+% pOwn% on both DK and FD. However, he hasn’t shown much in the way of consistency this season, and heads into start No. 24 with an ugly 5.48 ERA, 4.91 xERA, 1.36 WHIP, and an average 21.6% kRate. The D-Backs have also had a bottom-10 bullpen L2Weeks and, in that span, they own an MLB-low 14.5% kRate to go along with their near-5 ERA.

The Rockies just got routed by the Blue Jays, getting outscored 6 to 45 over their recent three-game series at Coors Field. But they have still managed to rate out as a top-10 offense against RHPs over the last week, with a .281 AVG, .847 OPS, .365 wOBA, .222 ISO, and 124 wRC+. A lot of those numbers are inflated from their wild 17-16 walk-off win over the Pirates last Friday, but the point still stands. They have also had plenty of success against Zac Gallen in previous meetings. Across 72 PAs versus the current Rockies’ roster, Gallen has been tagged for a .304 AVG and .423 wOBA with just a 16.7% kRate.

Favorite COL Bats: Hunter Goodman, Mickey Moniak, Jordan Beck

Bargain Bats: Ezequiel Tovar, Warming Bernabel

Unfortunately, I’m a little short on time today, so I have to nix the “one-off” and “bargain bat” lists. But, there are plenty of useful tools and info on the LineStar app to help you hone in on those hitters. I will have those lists back on Monday!

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

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Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!