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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s another all-day baseball affair with games underway from noon (ET) til night! With most teams playing earlier in the day, a modest five-game main slate is on the docket this evening. Please note that this slate will start a bit earlier than usual, with the first game (ATH at WAS) beginning at 6:45 ET. It’s not a bad little slate by any means. We have a nice mix of solid pitching and viable stacks to consider. And weather doesn’t appear to be an issue in any of these games either. So, let’s jump into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣8/6 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• ATH at WAS (6:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): Mid-70s temps with light winds IN from right.

• KC at BOS (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Cooler temps in the upper-60s with light winds IN from right.

• MIL at ATL (7:15 ET, 8.0 O/U): Any significant rain should stay away from the ballpark entirely, so no issues expected here.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.9k, FD: $9.2k | vs. CWS

Kirby got a delayed jump on the season, and things started pretty rocky for him, but he has looked like his usual self over the last month or so. Spanning his previous six starts (35.1 IP), Kirby has come away with a sharp 2.80 ERA, 3.17 xFIP, .198 opp AVG, 0.96 WHIP, and 27.1% kRate. Among MLB pitchers with at least 70.0 IP this season, Kirby ranks 1st with a 114 Location+ rating, which indicates that he’s been elite from a command standpoint. He’ll get to toe the rubber on his home mound tonight, which is always a plus considering T-Mobile Park ranks as the #2 most pitcher-friendly ballpark.

I must say, I’m not in love with the idea of targeting pitchers against the White Sox right now. Against RHPs L2Weeks, they are top five in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ while also boasting an MLB-low 15.4% kRate. There are not many household names in this lineup, but they have been punching well above their weight, offensively, since the All-Star Break. But, on a small slate, I believe we have to keep George Kirby on the DFS radar almost by default. He is a quality pitcher who is capable of stifling a hot offense, and the sportsbooks also see it that way as Chicago owns a slate-low 3.0 implied run total today.

Nestor Cortes (LHP), SD | DK: $6.9k, FD: $6.7k | at ARI

The lower-end of pitching is where things get interesting on this slate, in my opinion. Nestor Cortes, who was traded over from Milwaukee at the deadline, is set to make his Padres debut and his first MLB start since April 3rd. He’s been on the 60-day IL due to an elbow injury but has put up some quality results across 18.0 rehab innings pitched at Triple-A. In that time, he has landed a 1.00 ERA, 4.01 xFIP, .154 opp AVG, 0.72 WHIP, 26.1% kRate, and 4.3% BB%. Outside of the xFIP, which still isn’t a horrible mark, every other result has been excellent. It seems like a lifetime ago at this point, but most may recall Cortes’ MLB season debut performance way back on March 29th when he gave up eight runs and five homers to the Yankees across only two innings pitched. The Yankees went on to score 20 runs that game, and torpedo bats were all anyone could talk about in the following days/weeks. He did bounce back in a big way in his second start (6.0 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 0 ER, 6 K vs. CIN) and looked much more like the Nestor Cortes we’re used to seeing. Given how well he has pitched in his rehab stint, he’s too cheap to ignore today at a sub-$7k salary on both sites. Cortes also built up to 93 pitches in his final rehab outing. That did occur 13 days ago on July 24th, but he still should not face any major workload restrictions in his Padres debut.

The post-deadline D-Backs lineup is not one to fear at this point. They’ve had a rough go at the plate of late and, against LHPs L2Weeks (157 PAs), they’ve managed a meager .221 AVG, .592 OPS, .103 ISO, and 65 wRC+. They still don’t strike out a ton (19.1% kRate vs. LHPs L2Weeks), but, at Cortes’ current price points, we don’t exactly need a ton of Ks for him to return value.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10k | vs. MIL

Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.7k | at WAS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Athletics vs. Cade Cavalli (RHP), WAS

The A’s are back to their power-hitting ways and head into this game with an outstanding .301 AVG, .916 OPS, .389 wOBA, .254 ISO, 149 wRC+, and 18.8% kRate versus RHPs L2Weeks (336 PAs). They opened up this series in Washington with a Herculean 16-run, 24-hit performance while also forcing the Nationals to dive deep into their bullpen -- five WAS relievers combined for 132 pitches yesterday. So, in a way, they’re starting this game with a built-in advantage in that regard.

The A’s also have the opportunity to beat up on a very inexperienced RHP in Cade Cavalli, who has just one MLB start under his belt, and that came way back in 2022 against the Reds, where he gave up seven ER in 4.1 IP. That’s pretty much ancient history in the world of baseball, and Cavalli also underwent Tommy John surgery since then. So, instead, we’ll dive into his recent MiLB results. Across 65.0 IP in Triple-A this season, Cavalli has posted an uninspiring 6.09 ERA, 4.07 xFIP, .292 opp AVG, 1.55 WHIP, and 39.8% HardHit%. He has shown some decent strikeout ability (25.1% kRate) and has had his fair share of bad luck, considering his xFIP is two runs lower than his ERA. But this is still a guy who could struggle against MLB-caliber hitters, and the shorthanded Nationals’ bullpen that will be backing him up has put up an MLB-worst 8.16 ERA, 2.09 WHIP, and .361 opp AVG over the last two weeks.

Favorite ATH Bats: Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker

Bargain Bat: JJ Bleday

San Diego Padres vs. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP), ARI

The Padres' bats have been in some strong form of late, and they head into tonight with a .296 AVG, .814 OPS, .353 wOBA, and 131 wRC+ versus RHPs L2Weeks while also striking out just 17.9% of the time. They’re getting instant returns out of multiple recent trade acquisitions, and star outfielder Jackson Merrill has been heating back up at the right time.

RHP Anthony DeSclafani will get a second consecutive start after primarily serving as a bulk reliever this season. He only has 25.2 IP under his belt this season, but the results haven’t been great -- 4.91 ERA, 4.58 xFIP, and he has really struggled with the long ball with a 2.10 HR/9 Rate. DeSclafani only lasted 2.1 innings on 59 pitches in his start against the A’s last Friday, so he isn’t likely to pitch deep into this game. That would leave a subpar D-Backs bullpen left to pitch the rest of the way. Arizona deployed six different relievers in yesterday’s game, so you have to assume at least two or three of those guys won’t be available today. This bullpen also has an MLB-low 14.9% kRate L2Weeks with a lackluster 4.79 ERA and 4.49 xFIP in that span as well.

Favorite SD Bats: Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr.

Bargain Bat: Ramon Laureano

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago White Sox vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

Once again, this is a straightforward leverage stack against George Kirby, who is going to potentially be the highest-owned pitcher on this slate. Every hitter in the projected White Sox lineup has a < 10% pOwn% with eight hitters under 5%. As mentioned in the Kirby spotlight, the White Sox have been incredibly dangerous of late. Against RHPs L2Weeks, they are top five in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ while also owning an MLB-low 15.4% kRate. Kirby is a quality pitcher, but he has also been giving up plenty of hard contact and a high average exit velo (91.0 mph) over the last month. As usual, you don’t need to go wild with a full five-man stack here. Even just a mini two or three-man CWS stack will be enough to create some leverage.

Favorite CWS Bats: Colson Montgomery, Luis Robert Jr., Lenyn Sosa

Bargain Bat: Brooks Baldwin

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

2B Ketel Marte, ARI vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), SD

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Dustin May (RHP), BOS

3B Manny Machado, SD vs. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP), ARI

SS CJ Abrams, WAS vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

1B Matt Olson, ATL vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), MIL

C Shea Langeliers, ATH vs. Cade Cavalli (RHP), WAS

OF Randy Arozarena, SEA vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

OF Christian Yelich, MIL vs. Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL

SS Trevor Story, BOS vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC vs. Dustin May (RHP), BOS

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), SD

3B/SS Colson Montgomery, CWS vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), MIL

OF Ramon Laureano, SD vs. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP), ARI

OF Isaac Collins, MIL vs. Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL

1B Andrew Vaughn, MIL vs. Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL

OF JJ Bleday, ATH vs. Cade Cavalli (RHP), WAS

1B/2B Lenyn Sosa, CWS vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

C Freddy Fermin, SD vs. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP), ARI

OF Eli White, ATL vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), MIL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!