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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ve got a nice nine-game main slate lined up on this fine Monday evening! Pitching is pretty so-so on this slate, but we have plenty of offenses in good-to-great spots to choose from. On the weather front, it appears that MIL at ATL will be the only game with any significant concerns. We’ll keep the intro short and sweet today and jump right into the action. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣8/4 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• CLE at NYM (7:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Low-80s with 5-10 mph winds OUT to left.

• MIL at ATL (7:15 ET, 8.0 O/U): Rain is going to be around all afternoon and into the evening. We might see the bulk of the rain hold southeast of the ballpark, but that’s a speculative guess at the moment. The range of outcomes here spans from “game plays without delay through some light rain” to “outright postponement”. So, we’ll need to run a pre-game radar check to get a better sense of how things will shake out. For now, proceed with players from this game with caution.

  Update (4 PM ET): The outlook appears better for this game than it did earlier. Most of the rain has passed east of the ballpark. There is still a good chance for some amount of rain in ATL tonight, but it doesn't seem like it will be heavy enough for a washout/PPD.

• CIN at CHC (8:05 ET, 7.5 O/U): Mid-70s temps with 5-10 mph winds IN from center and the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field.

• TOR at COL (8:40 ET, 11.5 O/U): Temps in the low-90s for much of this game with 10 mph winds OUT to left. Easily the best hitting conditions on the slate at the most hitter-friendly ballpark in MLB.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.2k | vs. STL

We got a dud out of Glasnow last week, but there is reason for optimism that we'll see a quick bounce-back performance tonight. Glasnow returns to his home mound where, across 25.0 IP this season, he has posted a stellar 2.16 ERA, 2.86 xFIP, 0.84 WHIP, .159 opp AVG, 34.4% kRate, and 7.3% BB%. Walks have been a massive issue for Glasnow on the road (20.3% BB%), so we should feel better about his chances of limiting the free passes tonight.

We also have to like the matchup with a sputtering St. Louis offense. Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Cardinals are hitting at the Mendoza line (.200 AVG) with a .590 OPS and 70 wRC+. The Cardinals have been a low-strikeout team all season, but their 21.1% kRate in that recent sample size is closer to the league average. The ceiling games have been tough to come by for Glasnow this season as the Dodgers exercise plenty of caution with their injury-prone ace, but if he can get to around 95 pitches tonight, a ceiling game is a possibility. Also, while it isn’t a significant sample size by any means, I thought it was worth noting that the current STL roster has yet to get a hit off of Glasnow in 24 plate appearances. The Dodgers are also hefty -188 ML favorites with a struggling Sonny Gray (8.44 ERA L5Starts) on the mound for the Cardinals, so we’ll like Glasnow’s chances at snagging a win bonus as well.

Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN | DK: $8.7k, FD: $10.4k | at CHC

Lodolo has been straight dealing over the last month, where, across five starts and 33.1 IP, he has procured a 1.89 ERA, 2.71 xFIP, 0.75 WHIP, 30.9% kRate, and 3.3% BB%. Lodolo has also excelled on the road (+52.5% more FPPG away). His 2.23 road ERA is nearly half of his 4.10 home ERA, and there are marked improvements across the board in every other key pitching metric when he has pitched away from the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Wrigley Field will feature some pitcher-friendly conditions tonight with mild temps in the 70s and 5-10 mph winds blowing in from center field.

The Cubs have been a top-tier offense this season and a team that I rarely attack with pitching. However, they’re not doing a ton of damage against left-handed pitching of late with a .666 OPS, 87 wRC+, and 23.5% kRate versus LHPs L2Weeks (153 PAs). It’s still not going to be an easy matchup, but, given Lodolo’s current form, he will make for an appealing DFS target today in a game that owns a slate-low 7.5-run over/under.

Michael Soroka (RHP), CHC | DK: $7k, FD: $7.8k | vs. CIN

There are a couple of serviceable arms out of the lower pricing tier today, but Soroka nabs the spotlight. After being traded over from the Washington Nationals ahead of last Thursday’s deadline, this will be Soroka’s Cubs debut. He has pitched better than his 4.87 ERA would indicate, as that is backed up by a much stronger 3.32 xERA. And there is nothing to hate about his 1.13 WHIP and 25.4% kRate on the season, either. Over his last ten starts, Soroka has improved those numbers to a 1.07 WHIP and 27.8% kRate to go alongside an excellent .199 opponent batting average.

The Reds own a subpar 97 wRC+ versus RHPs L2Weeks and, more notably, they’ve posted an MLB-worst .094 ISO in that same span. They’ve been tough to strike out (18.3% kRate L2Weeks), but they seem to be sacrificing power for fewer whiffs/strikeouts. And, as mentioned already, the conditions at Wrigley Field will be favorable for pitchers tonight -- with those winds blowing in from center, it’s going to be difficult to hit homers in such a wind-sensitive environment. There is still some risk attached to this play, but the Cubs did trade away a couple of talented prospects to get Soroka, so they have plenty of faith that he’ll be a solid back-of-the-rotation piece as they pursue legitimate World Series aspirations.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Max Fried (LHP), NYY | DK: $10.2k, FD: $9.7k | at TEX

Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM | DK: $9.5k, FD: $8.1k | vs. CLE

Quinn Priester (RHP), MIL | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.9k | at ATL (Monitor weather!)

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9k | vs. TB

Eric Lauer (LHP), TOR | DK: $6.3k, FD: $9.8k | at COL (DraftKings SP2 Preferred)

JP Sears (LHP), SD | DK: $6k, FD: $7k | at ARI

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), TOR

Non-Coors Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

The Padres have been in some nice form recently, ranking 5th in AVG (.286) and wRC+ (124) against RHPs L2Weeks. They also had an active trade deadline where they improved their lineup overall, with the most notable offensive additions being Ramon Laureano, Ryan O’Hearn, and Freddy Fermin. Laureano (144 wRC+ this season) will likely take over as the everyday left fielder, O’Hearn (140 wRC+ vs. RHPs) should start whenever there is an opposing righty on the mound, and Fermin should alternate starting with fellow catcher Elias Diaz. The Padres’ offense has been stuck in neutral for much of the season, but we can expect them to have a strong second half at the plate with these new additions.

Brandon Pfaadt is a solid pitcher who had been cruising through some impressive outings prior to his previous start, when he gave up seven runs on 11 hits (three HRs) to the Tigers. He has been better at home (+38.7% more FPPG) and could bounce back from that ugly outing. But this isn’t a great matchup for him. Across 119 plate appearances, the current Padres roster owns a .310 AVG versus Pfaadt, and they’re a notoriously difficult team to strike out. There are also plenty of red (bad) figures in Pfaadt’s recent statcast data that could indicate regression catching up to him, as it did last Tuesday versus Detroit. The D-Backs’ bullpen has also been mediocre, at best, lately, and, on the season, they rank as a bottom-five bullpen.

Favorite SD Bats: Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr.

Bargain Bat: Ramon Laureano

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), ATL

As long as the weather cooperates in this game, the Brewers will land in an excellent spot. Against RHPs over the last month, they’ve ranked 2nd only to the Toronto Blue Jays in AVG (.291), OPS (.809), wOBA (.350), and wRC+ (127). They continue to rank as the #1 road offense in baseball, averaging 5.80 runs/gm away (versus 4.21 runs/gm at home). Milwaukee is also coming off a three-game series [on the road] versus the Nationals, where they poured on 38 runs (12.67 runs/gm) on a whopping 56 combined hits. So, to say that they’re seeing the ball well would be an understatement.

The entire Braves’ Opening Day starting rotation is on the 60-day IL, so Erick Fedde is helping Atlanta limp to the finish line and is nothing more than cannon fodder with a working right arm. He has been atrocious over his last six starts, which have resulted in a 12.09 ERA, 6.28 xFIP, 2.28 WHIP, .384 opp AVG, .495 opp wOBA, 3.60 HR/9 Rate, and 9.7% kRate. That’s just some comically bad stuff. The Braves’ bullpen has been in the dumps as well, posting a 6.70 ERA, 5.06 xFIP, and 1.53 WHIP over the previous two weeks. So, against a hot-hitting Brewers team, I do not like Fedde’s or the ATL bullpen’s chances of turning things around. But, once again, double-check the radar closer to first pitch to make sure this game will play.

Favorite MIL Bats: Christian Yelich, William Contreras, Isaac Collins

Bargain Bats: Brice Turang, Andrew Vaughn, Brandon Lockridge

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL

This looks like a good opportunity to jump on a low-owned Dodgers stack -- every hitter in the projected lineup has a ≤ 10% pOwn% with seven hitters under a 5% pOwn%. The Dodgers have been slumping at the plate over the last month, with an 84 wRC+ versus RHPs in that span… only the Pirates (81 wRC+) have been worse. That said, they are returning home following a nine-game East Coast road trip, and they’ve ranked as the #1 home offense in MLB this season (5.77 runs/gm). They may also be getting third baseman Max Muncy (knee) off the IL today. Muncy hasn’t played in nearly a month, but, if you recall, he was crushing righty pitching before getting injured, to the tune of a .399 wOBA and 159 wRC+ this season, so getting him back in the mix would be a huge spark for this offense.

Sonny Gray has also been in some poor form -- in three starts since the All-Star Break, he has put up an 11.48 ERA, 2.33 WHIP, .435 opp AVG, .524 opp wOBA, and 3.40 HR/9 Rate. He does have a 3.32 xFIP in that same span, so he has been the victim of some seriously bad luck. But, on the road against the Dodgers also isn’t the best spot for a pitcher’s luck to turn around. The current Dodgers’ lineup is also hitting .301 with a .361 wOBA across 144 PAs versus Sonny Gray, which are some quality numbers in a significant BvP sample size.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith, Freddie Freeman (+ Max Muncy, if he’s back)

Bargain Bat: Michael Conforto (and/or Alex Freeland, if Muncy remains out)

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP), COL

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM

2B Ketel Marte, ARI vs. JP Sears (LHP), SD

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), ATL

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Slade Cecconi (RHP), CLE

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

3B Manny Machado, SD vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), TOR

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC vs. Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN

1B Yandy Diaz, TB vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

1B/2B Romy Gonzalez, BOS vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), KC

OF Christian Yelich, MIL vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), ATL

OF Giancarlo Stanton, NYY vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TEX

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. Max Fried (LHP), NYY

1B Willson Contreras, STL vs. Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD

C Drake Baldwin, ATL vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), MIL

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), TB

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Sal Frelick, MIL vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), ATL

OF Roman Anthony, BOS vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), KC

2B/3B Ernie Clement, TOR vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP), COL

OF Brenton Doyle, COL vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), TOR

2B Brice Turang, MIL vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), ATL

1B Warming Bernabel, COL vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), TOR

OF Michael Harris II, ATL vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), MIL

OF Ramon Laureano, SD vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

2B/OF Davis Schneider, TOR vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP), COL

OF Joey Loperfido, TOR vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP), COL

OF Isaac Collins, MIL vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), ATL

1B Andrew Vaughn, MIL vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), ATL

C Kyle Higashioka, TEX vs. Max Fried (LHP), NYY

OF Brandon Lockridge, MIL . Erick Fedde (RHP), ATL

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!