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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Wednesday is typically “getaway day” for the road teams, which usually leads to plenty of afternoon games. But today we’ll have most games backloaded onto the evening main slate with ten games on tap! Pitching isn’t all too impressive today, but that means we’ll have plenty of viable hitters/stacks to choose from. The week of outstanding baseball weather also continues, as we have zero rain delay/postponement concerns. Tomorrow marks one month until the MLB regular season comes to a close, so enjoy these final weeks of non-playoff action while you can! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣8/27 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• PIT at STL (7:45 ET, 7.5 O/U): Cooler temps around 70 degrees with light ~5 mph winds IN from right.

• CIN at LAD (8:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Fairly warm with temps mostly in the 80s. 5-10 mph winds OUT to center.

• DET at ATH (10:05 ET, 10.5 O/U): Temps in the 80s for most of the game with 10 mph winds OUT to left. Once again, this is easily the best hitting weather on the slate.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Sonny Gray (RHP), STL | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.4k | vs. PIT

If I’m being honest, I’m not in love or even “in like” with the top-end SP options on this slate. But, after a roller coaster of a season up to this point, I could see Sonny Gray having one of his good outings today. Luck has not been on Gray’s side this season -- his lackluster 4.33 ERA is backed up by an excellent 2.99 xFIP, which is an indicator of about where his ERA *should* be. His strikeout rate has been solid at 26.9% and his 4.2% Walk Rate is the second-lowest among qualified MLB pitchers, trailing only Tarik Skubal (3.9% BB%). So, he’s locating well and getting plenty of swing-and-miss, but one way or another, he just hasn’t been able to post many consistently strong results. Gray will be pitching at home tonight, where his home ERA of 3.76 is nearly a run-and-a-half lower than his 5.24 road ERA. There will also be some nice pitching conditions in St. Louis this evening with cool-ish temps and light winds blowing in from right field.

The Pirates’ offense has been above-average versus RHPs lately, with a solid .773 OPS, .335 wOBA, and 113 wRC+ over the last two weeks (370 PAs). They have been striking out at a slightly higher-than-average 22.7% kRate in that span. Sonny Gray also owns some quality BvP history here -- across 120 plate appearances versus the current Pirates roster, he has held them to a .234 AVG, .301 wOBA, and, most notably, he has posted an excellent 29.2% kRate. Gray hasn’t been a safe “floor” play this season, but the chance for a ceiling-type performance is certainly there today.

Eric Lauer (LHP), TOR | DK: $8k, FD: $8.7k | vs. MIN

After pitching in the KBO in 2024, Lauer made his MLB return this season and is quietly putting up the best numbers of his major league career. Spanning his last 11 starts (57.2 IP) dating back to June 18th, Lauer has procured a 2.97 ERA, 3.95 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, 0.90 HR/9 Rate, 24.9% kRate, and 6.3% BB%. Just good-to-great numbers across the board. Like the Blue Jays’ offense, Lauer has been even better when pitching at home in Toronto, where he owns a 2.45 ERA, 3.75 xFIP, 0.82 WHIP, 0.55 HR/9 Rate, and 28.3% kRate.

The matchup also sets up pretty well for Lauer today. Against LHPs over the last month (283 PAs), the Twins have hit for just a .200 AVG, .605 OPS, .270 wOBA, 68 wRC+, and 20.5% kRate. The strikeout rate hasn’t been necessarily high, but fairly close to league-average. The Blue Jays (-188 ML) are the third-heaviest favorites on the slate, and the Twins are being pinned with the fourth-lowest implied run total (3.9 runs). Maybe it’s not the most exciting play, but expect a quality outing for Lauer this evening.

Colin Rea (RHP), CHC | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8k | at SF

It’s a small sample size, but Rea has provided some nice results over his last three starts (16.2 IP) -- 2.16 ERA, .161 opp AVG, 1.08 WHIP, and 20.9% kRate. His 4.62 xFIP and 13.4% BB% in that same span are a bit concerning, but thanks to his ability to keep the opponent hits at a minimum, the walks haven’t been coming back to bite him. Going back a bit further to July 4th (9 GS, 49.0 IP), Rea has supplied a very serviceable 3.31 ERA, .216 opp AVG, and 1.16 WHIP. Rea has also put up some promising statcast results over the last month, including a 54.7% GroundBall%, 24.0% FlyBall%, and a low 28.0% HardContact%.

The Giants have not been hitting for average (.230 AVG vs. RHPs L2Weeks) and, more notably, they’ve been striking out a ton with a 30.5% kRate vs. RHPs L2Weeks. Rea isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher, but his K upside should get a boost in this matchup. The Cubs (-132 ML), while not heavily favored, are favored nonetheless. The ceiling is limited for Rea, but I do like his chances at earning a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) in this spot, which would make him a perfectly fine SP2 option on DraftKings.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.4k | vs. COL

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAD | DK: $8.5k, FD: $7.7k | vs. CIN

Ryan Bergert (RHP), KC | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.5k | at CWS

Luis Morales (RHP), ATH | DK: $7k, FD: $7.5k | vs. DET

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Texas Rangers vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

It’s been tough sledding for Jack Kochanowicz. Spanning his last 11 MLB starts, he has come away with a 7.61 ERA, 4.98 xFIP, .332 opp AVG, .398 opp wOBA, 1.90 WHIP, 1.70 HR/9 Rate, and 13.8% kRate. He’s been down in Triple-A over the last couple of weeks, and the results haven’t been great there either -- 15.0 IP, 4.80 ERA, 5.83 xFIP, 1.73 WHIP, and 16.2% kRate. He’s just not missing many bats and is allowing a high 48.0% HardHit% on the season.

Meanwhile, things have been going mostly in the right direction for the Rangers’ offense. Over their last 10 games, they have hit for a .272 AVG, .811 OPS, .351 wOBA, .198 ISO, and 127 wRC+ with a low 18.1% kRate. Those results make them easily a top-10 offense in that stretch. Rangers’ LHBs should get a bump today, as Kochanowicz has traditional splits and struggles more versus that side of the plate (.391 opp wOBA, .213 opp ISO, 2.05 HR/9 Rate), but the RHBs that are swinging it well (particularly Wyatt Langford) should stay within TEX stack consideration.

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Wyatt Langford, Adolis Garcia

Bargain Bats: Joc Pederson, Ezequiel Duran, Rowdy Tellez

Athletics vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

It’s difficult not to like this game environment once again today. With hitting conditions cooling off around the country, Sutter Health Park (#2 most hitter-friendly ballpark) in West Sacramento is still supplying temps in the 80s with 10 mph winds blowing out to left field. We’ll go to the A’s side of things today as they get set to face off with RHP Casey Mize. Mize isn’t a bad MLB starter, but he hasn’t been in the best groove in recent weeks. Spanning his previous seven starts, Mize has come away with a 6.54 ERA, .310 opp AVG, .381 opp wOBA, and 1.52 WHIP. And those numbers came across a fairly generous scheduling of opponents.

Top to bottom, this A’s team isn’t overly consistent, but they have a handful of hitters who have the capability of smashing in unison on the same night, which has made them a very “stackable” offense throughout this season. They’ve been a top-10 offense over their last 11 games, rocking a .787 OPS, .338 wOBA, .198 ISO, and 114 wRC+. Maybe not the most inspiring numbers, but it’s mostly a few guys at the back of the lineup that are bringing their numbers down a bit, and it’s the top five or six hitters in the lineup that we’ll mainly want exposure to.

Favorite ATH Bats: Shea Langeliers, Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom

Bargain Bat: Jacob Wilson

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Colorado Rockies vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

Every hitter in the confirmed Rockies lineup has a < 5% pOwn%. Framber Valdez may not be in the best form at the moment, but he’s still going to command a good chunk of the SP ownership tonight, likely 20+% on both DK and FD, simply due to the matchup. But the “road Rockies” haven’t been too bad against LHPs lately. In fact, against LHPs on the road over the last month, they’ve posted a .272 AVG, .809 OPS, .348 wOBA, .204 ISO, and 125 wRC+ with just an 18.4% kRate. Really solid stuff.

And, as mentioned, Valdez hasn’t been at his best lately. Across his four starts in August, he has put up a 7.33 ERA, 4.95 xFIP, .341 opp AVG, .369 opp wOBA, 1.76 WHIP, and an 11.1% kRate. He has certainly been a bit unlucky, but a near-5 xFIP still isn’t indicative of a guy who is pitching well, and the major drop in his kRate is pretty alarming as well. The Astros’ bullpen has also been pretty rough. Over the last month, they have pitched to a 5.09 ERA with an MLB-high 2.03 HR/9 Rate. No need to go crazy here with a full five-man Rockies stack, but a mini two or three-man stack could work out while also providing significant leverage.

Favorite COL Bats: Hunter Goodman, Brenton Doyle, Jordan Beck

Bargain Bat: Kyle Karros

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CWS

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI vs. Aaron Ashby (LHP), MIL

SS Trea Turner, PHI vs. Nolan McLean (RHP), NYM

OF Riley Greene, DET vs. Luis Morales (RHP), ATH

C Shea Langeliers, ATH vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), TOR

OF George Springer, TOR vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD vs. Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN

SS Zach Neto, LAA vs. Jacob Latz (LHP), TEX

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

1B Rafael Devers, SF vs. Colin Rea (RHP), CHC

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL

3B Carlos Correa, HOU vs. Chase Dollander (RHP), COL

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

2B Brice Turang, MIL vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC vs. Carson Whisenhunt (LHP), SF

1B/OF Alex Burleson, STL vs. Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP), PIT

OF Noelvi Marte, CIN vs. Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAD

1B/2B Lenyn Sosa, CWS vs. Ryan Bergert (RHP), KC

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

SS Dansby Swanson, CHC vs. Carson Whisenhunt (LHP), SF

OF Jo Adell, LAA vs. Jacob Latz (LHP), TEX

OF Mike Yastrzemski, KC vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CWS

SS Jacob Wilson, ATH vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

3B Colt Keith, DET vs. Luis Morales (RHP), ATH

OF Starling Marte, NYM vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

3B Matt Shaw, CHC vs. Carson Whisenhunt (LHP), SF

C Gabriel Moreno, ARI vs. Aaron Ashby (LHP), MIL

OF Brenton Doyle, COL vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

3B Mark Vientos, NYM vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

1B Rowdy Tellez, TEX vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

OF Joc Pederson, TEX vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!