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Top DFS Offers 8/25/25 💸

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A healthy 10-game Monday main slate will get us rolling this week! A ton of pitching talent resides on this slate, so a lower-scoring slate could be on tap. Only two teams are being pinned with an implied total over 4.5 runs. Of course, several teams below that threshold will inevitably exceed expectations, but landing on those teams is the tricky part. There are no weather concerns to speak of today, so we can focus our entire attention on locating the optimal pitchers and hitters/stacks. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣8/25 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• WAS at NYY (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): Winds OUT to center at 10 mph.

• PHI at NYM (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Winds OUT to right at 10 mph.

• KC at CWS (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Cooler temps in the 60s, but winds will also be blowing OUT to left near 10 mph.

• DET at ATH (10:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): Temps in the 80s for much of the game with 10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $10.7k, FD: $10.8k | at ATH

Skubal had a couple of tough outings against the Angels and Twins recently, but he wasn’t going to stay down for long. He bounced back in a big way in his most recent start, firing seven shutout innings with ten Ks against the Astros. He carries double-digit strikeout upside against essentially anyone he faces, and he leads all qualified MLB pitchers with an elite 17.0% SwStr%. Skubal also remains atop the leaderboard with his 2.49 xFIP. His primary hangup recently has been getting barreled up too often. Skubal has allowed 12 barreled balls over the last month, which places him in the bottom 5th percentile of pitchers in that span.

The A’s are certainly capable of barreling up lefty pitchers, and they are 2nd in MLB with a .234 ISO vs. LHPs L30Days. Tonight’s weather conditions at Sutter Health Park (#2 most hitter-friendly ballpark) will be arguably the most hitter-friendly on the slate. While they haven’t been K’ing against LHPs much lately, the A’s do own the 10th highest Whiff% versus Skubal’s primary pitch mix (changeup, four-seamer, sinker), so the strikeouts should be there tonight. As long as he keeps the ball inside the park, Skubal could certainly put up another stellar outing even if the matchup isn’t ideal.

Max Scherzer (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.6k | vs. MIN

Scherzer has seemingly turned back the clock a bit and, over his last five starts, has pitched to a 2.25 ERA, .197 opp AVG, 0.94 WHIP, 22.4% kRate, and 5.6% BB%. Some of his underlying stats suggest that he’s been getting fairly lucky, and the strikeout rate also hasn’t been overly impressive. But the results have been there, nonetheless. He’ll also be pitching in Toronto, where the Blue Jays own the best home record in baseball (42-21).

The matchup may be the biggest draw for Scherzer. Against RHPs L2Weeks (329 PAs), the Twins rank 23rd or worse in AVG (.208), OPS (.640), wOBA (.285), ISO (.140), and wRC+ (80) while accounting for the third-highest strikeout rate (27.1%). On the season, the Twins also have the third-lowest batting average (.227) and fourth-highest kRate (24.6%) against Scherzer’s primary pitch mix, which features a four-seamer, slider, changeup, and curveball. There are plenty of great pitchers to choose from today, but Scherzer deserves plenty of consideration even if he is well past his prime.

Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA | DK: $5.7k, FD: $8.1k | at TEX

As the cheap spotlighted pitchers often go, this will be more of a DraftKings SP2 recommendation. Soriano hasn’t been overly consistent, but he is simply too cheap at this $5,700 price point. He has been generally good across his last six starts, dating back to July 20th. In that span, he posted four quality starts (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) against the Dodgers, Phillies, Mariners, and the same Rangers team that he’ll face today. Across that entire span, he accounted for an excellent 2.97 xFIP while continuing to show off his elite groundball-inducing skills with a 64.4% GB%. The kRate has also been solid at 21.8%.

The Rangers have been hitting RHPs pretty well (117 wRC+ L2Weeks) while also not striking out a ton (18.5% kRate L2Weeks). But, as touched on, Soriano has recently shown us that he can excel in this matchup after he fired seven one-run innings with seven Ks against the Rangers a little under a month ago on July 30th. Soriano has also been notably better on the road this season, where he owns a sharp 2.89 ERA across 74.2 IP -- compare that to his 5.11 ERA at home across a nearly identical sample size (74.0 IP). For the price (on DraftKings), I believe we can take a shot on Soriano here if it means we can pay up for a high-end SP1 and/or bigger bats.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.6k | at NYM

Jacob deGrom (RHP), TEX | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.9k | vs. LAA

Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN | DK: $9k, FD: $10.4k | at LAD

Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.4k | vs. WAS

Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD | DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.4k | vs. CIN

Johan Oviedo (RHP), PIT | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.5k | at STL

JP Sears (LHP), SD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.9k | at SEA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Detroit Tigers (LHBs Preferred) vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

JT Ginn has done well in righty-on-righty matchups, but he has absolutely crumbled when facing lefty hitters. Against LHBs this season, Ginn has posted a 7.43 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, .330 opp AVG, .444 opp wOBA, .294 opp ISO, and 3.13 HR/9 Rate. It’s only a 55 plate appearance sample size, but Ginn has been even worse against LHBs at home: 3.23 WHIP, .419 opp AVG, .600 opp wOBA, and the seven home runs he has given up in that time translates to a 7.27 HR/9 Rate! The Tigers have been a pretty neutral offense against RHPs lately, and the A’s bullpen has been extremely solid. But if they can pour on the damage early against Ginn, they may not face the top A’s relievers. With Tarik Skubal on the mound for the Tigers, you have to like Detroit’s odds of having a decisive lead by the middle innings. As noted previously in this newsletter, hitting conditions at Sutter Health Park (#2 most hitter-friendly ballpark) are the best on today’s slate as well.

Favorite DET Bats: Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Wenceel Perez

Bargain Bat: Colt Keith

Kansas City Royals vs. Shane Smith (RHP), CWS

The Royals have been crushing righty pitching all of a sudden. Against RHPs L2Weeks (358 PAs), they’ve put up a .286 AVG (3rd), .888 OPS (3rd), .380 wOBA (2nd), .238 ISO (2nd), and 143 wRC+ (3rd) while posting the lowest strikeout rate (16.8%) in baseball. This recent offensive surge has been spearheaded by Vinnie Pasquantino, who is on the biggest heater of his career (6 HRs in his last 7 games), and Bobby Witt Jr., who is hitting nearly .350 over his last 20 games. But other guys like Maikel Garcia, Mike Yastrzemski, and Salvador Perez have been providing strong contributions as well.

Shane Smith has had some bright spots this season, but spanning his last nine MLB starts, he has procured a 7.22 ERA, 4.74 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP, .364 opp wOBA, 11.4% BB%, and 2.10 HR/9 Rate. He is also bottom 20th percentile in average exit velo over the last month (90.9 mph), so he’s been getting hit hard even when he has come away with a solid result. I just don’t expect him to be the guy to slow down this hot-hitting Royals offense. The White Sox bullpen has also been experiencing some regression and heads into tonight with a 6.04 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, and 1.61 HR/9 Rate over the last two weeks.

Favorite KC Bats: Vinnie Pasquantino, Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia

Bargain Bats: Mike Yastrzemski, Kyle Isbel, Michael Massey

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

Every hitter in the projected Phillies lineup has a ≤ 10% pOwn%. The Phillies have been another hot offense against RHPs, ranking 4th or better in AVG (.304), OPS (.835), wOBA (.360), wRC+ (130), and kRate (17.9%) over the last two weeks.

Meanwhile, Kodai Senga has been going in the opposite direction. Across Senga’s last six starts, he has posted a 6.00 ERA, 5.01 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, .375 opp wOBA, 2.30 HR/9 Rate, 19.7% kRate, and 13.4% BB%. Walks and homers have been a bit of an issue for Senga, which has led to some blow-up innings in this recent stretch. This Mets’ bullpen has also been awful in its own right and has put up the second-worst ERA (6.47) in MLB L2Weeks. Citi Field is typically a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but there are some 10 mph winds blowing out in New York tonight, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Phillies mash a few homers out this evening.

Favorite PHI Bats: Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper

Bargain Bat: Max Kepler

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI vs. Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. JP Sears (LHP), SD

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), TOR

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

OF Riley Greene, DET vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

2B Jazz Chisholm Jr., NYY vs. Brad Lord (RHP), WAS

SS CJ Abrams, WAS vs. Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY

OF George Springer, TOR vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

OF Brent Rooker, ATH vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

SS Zach Neto, LAA vs. Jacob deGrom (RHP), TEX

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC vs. Shane Smith (RHP), CWS

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT vs. Michael McGreevy (RHP), STL

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

OF Noelvi Marte, CIN vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

2B Brice Turang, MIL vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS vs. Noah Cameron (LHP), KC

OF Lars Nootbaar, STL vs. Johan Oviedo (RHP), PIT

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Ramon Laureano, SD vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

OF Mike Yastrzemski, KC vs. Shane Smith (RHP), CWS

OF Isaac Collins, MIL vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

3B Colt Keith, DET vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

1B Andrew Vaughn, MIL vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

OF Max Kepler, PHI vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

1B Ryan O’Hearn, SD vs. Bryce Miller (RHP), SEA

2B/OF Jose Caballero, NYY vs. Brad Lord (RHP), WAS

C Gabriel Moreno, ARI vs. Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL

C Riley Adams, WAS vs. Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY

OF Kyle Isbel, KC vs. Shane Smith (RHP), CWS

2B/OF Michael Massey, KC vs. Shane Smith (RHP), CWS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!