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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We are back in action for another Wednesday split slate with eight games on the evening main slate ticket! There are not many proven arms on the mound today, so it won’t be a surprise if this slate leans offense-heavy. There are no major weather concerns across these eight games, so that’s one factor that we won’t have to sweat. Not much else to say here… this looks like it should be a quality mid-sized slate, albeit a bit tricky. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣8/20 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• CWS at ATL (7:15 ET, 9.0 O/U): A few scattered showers and storms around. They’ll likely miss the ballpark, but the threat of a brief delay is there.

• NYY at TB (7:35 ET, 8.5 O/U): Mid-80s temps with 5 mph winds OUT to right.

• TEX at KC (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Light winds IN from left.

• ATH at MIN (7:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): Light winds IN from left.

• MIL at CHC (8:05 ET, 7.0 O/U): 10+ mph winds IN from left at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field. Bump for pitchers.

• LAD at COL (8:40 ET, 11.5 O/U): Hot temps in the low-90s to start. Winds will mostly be blowing right-to-left around 10 mph, occasionally shifting OUT to left.

• CIN at LAA (9:38 ET, 9.0 O/U): 80-90 degrees with 5 mph winds OUT to left/center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Hurston Waldrep (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.1k | vs. CWS

Reminder: Monitor weather here!

As noted in the intro, well-established pitching talent is in short supply on this slate. Hurston Waldrep only has five career MLB outings under his belt. His two starts last season were disastrous, but the kid has clearly developed and made some tweaks since then. Over his three appearances and 17.2 IP this season, Waldrep has thoroughly impressed to the tune of a 1.02 ERA, 3.42 xFIP, 0.79 WHIP, and 25.8% kRate. Most of Waldrep’s underlying metrics support the fact that he is simply pitching very well and isn’t relying on much of the luck factor. He has shown a broad arsenal that goes six pitches deep, but it’s been his most utilized pitch, his splitter (28.4% USG%), that has been truly mystifying hitters. Waldrep’s splitter has produced a meager .048 opponent batting average and has generated a monster 54.3% Whiff%, which has led to an incredible 71.4% kRate on that pitch.

The White Sox lineup has punished Braves pitching to the tune of 23 runs over the first two games of this series. They’ve been every bit of an above-average offense lately, though they have still been striking out a fair amount with a 24.3% kRate vs. RHPs L2Weeks. The splitter isn’t a very common pitch, making up only about 3% of the total pitches thrown in MLB this season. But, against the RHP splitter this season, the White Sox have hit for just a .167 AVG, so we should expect that pitch to play well for Waldrep this evening. The Braves’ offense has been doing a nice job at supplying run support for their pitchers lately, and Atlanta (-198 ML) heads into tonight as the second-heaviest favorites on the slate. A bit of regression is probably due for Waldrep, but not much, and on a slate without many standout arms, he’ll make as much sense as anybody.

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAD | DK: $7.5k, FD: N/A (Hitter eligible only) | at COL

Unfortunately, Ohtani will once again only be an SP option on DraftKings, but he should be on the DFS radar if that is your site of choice. He got up to 80 pitches in his most recent outing, suggesting that he should continue to progress closer to a traditional starter’s workload. Ohtani has yet to clear more than 4.1 IP thus far this season, but if he’s going to throw around 85 pitches tonight, that could be enough to get him through five… maybe six innings, and potentially qualify for the win bonus. Across 23.1 IP this season, Ohtani has pitched to a 3.47 ERA, 2.58 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 33.3% kRate, and 5.2% BB%. The xFIP being nearly a run lower than his ERA tells us that he has been a bit unlucky on the mound. His 119 Stuff+ rating is also an elite figure, and further proves that his pitches have been nasty. Ohtani’s 98.0 mph average fastball velocity is also a career best, so any concern over his arm strength is well extinguished. This will be Ohtani’s first career start as a pitcher at Coors Field, and there’s some obvious risk that is always attached to a Coors Field SP. But the lack of pitching depth on this slate will guide us in this direction.

The Rockies’ bats haven’t been too effective against RHPs lately, as they own just a 65 wRC+ against righties L2Weeks, which is the second-worst mark in baseball. Colorado’s kRate has been down a bit in that same span (21.4%). But that kRate could be due to climb tonight. Against Ohtani’s primary pitch mix (four-seamer, sweeper, slider) this season, the Rockies have posted an MLB-high 28.5% kRate. The Dodgers (-330 ML) are massive favorites tonight, so if Ohtani does clear five-plus innings pitched for the first time this season, we’ll like his chances of snagging the win as well.

JP Sears (LHP), SD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.2k | vs. SF

As we’re sifting through the bottom of the barrel, JP Sears is who we’re gonna grab to spotlight as the value SP today. He’s been fairly serviceable over his last seven starts, pitching to a 4.37 ERA, 4.44 xFIP, 1.26 WHIP, 25.9% kRate, and 7.5% BB%. Strikeouts have been his main draw as a DFS target, and his kRate is up to 27.2% over his last five starts. Sears also had arguably his best outing of the season against this same Giants team back on July 4th when he threw six shutout innings while allowing only three hits, two walks, with six strikeouts, and he earned the win. Across 77 PAs versus the current Giants roster, Sears has allowed a low .222 AVG and .273 wOBA while notching an impressive 28.6% kRate.

The Giants have also failed to hit lefties well in general lately. Against LHPs L2Weeks, they’ve posted a .201 AVG, .585 OPS, 68 wRC+, and 26.8% kRate. Sears has always had a fair amount of volatility attached to him, but I’d imagine he is more likely to come through in this spot rather than post a letdown performance. The Padres (-157 ML) are also the third-heaviest favorites on the slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Noah Cameron (LHP), KC | DK: $9k, FD: $9.3k | vs. TEX

Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8k | at TB

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAD

Non-Coors Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Martin Perez (LHP), CWS

We’ll keep rolling this Braves stack for as long as it makes sense! Atlanta continues to lead the MLB in runs scored since August 7th. In that stretch, they’ve put up a .279 AVG (ranks 2nd), .822 OPS (4th), .356 wOBA (4th), .183 ISO (9th), and 129 wRC+ (4th). The numbers improve significantly when we look at what they’ve done in that span when they’ve had runners in scoring position: .295 AVG, 1.017 OPS, .423 wOBA, .311 ISO, and 172 wRC+.

The Braves will get a crack at veteran lefty Martin Perez, who will be making just his sixth appearance of the season tonight. The 34-year-old Perez has spent most of the season on the 60-day IL with an elbow injury. He posted a couple of solid outings earlier in the season and brings a respectable 3.09 ERA into tonight’s game. However, his xERA (expected ERA) is over double that of his surface ERA at 6.43. And he also owns a slate-worst 79 Stuff+ rating, indicating that his quality of pitches has been well below average. Across 64 PAs against Perez, the current Braves roster has hit for a .322 AVG and .395 wOBA with a 14.1% kRate. Perez could run into some early trouble against a hot-hitting Braves team, and, though the White Sox bullpen has been solid since the All-Star Break, they’ve seen a fair amount of usage the last couple of days. Atlanta has also had no major issues against the CWS bullpen the last couple of nights, plating 11 combined runs against them.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Jurickson Profar, Matt Olson

Bargain Bats: Michael Harris II, Ozzie Albies

Athletics vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

The A’s are back to their power-hitting ways and, over their last nine games against RHPs, they’re rocking an .819 OPS and .225 ISO alongside a 119 wRC+. The power within this lineup could continue to shine against Bailey Ober this evening.

Over his last eight MLB starts, Ober has acquired a 7.38 ERA, 5.09 xFIP, .385 opp wOBA, and 17.9% kRate. More notably, in that same span, Ober has allowed a whopping 17 HRs, which has resulted in a 3.30 HR/9 Rate and 20.2% HR/FB Rate. Ober has been allowing plenty of flyballs lately (46.0% FlyBall% over the last month), so any well-struck flyball is going to have a high probability of clearing the fences for the A’s tonight. The A’s also own an MLB-leading .349 wOBA against Ober’s primary pitch mix (four-seamer, changeup, slider) this season and rank 2nd with a .209 ISO. The Twins’ bullpen has posted the second-worst xFIP (4.79) in MLB over the last month, so it’s certainly a bullpen that the A’s could smash against once Ober’s day is done.

Favorite ATH Bats: Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker

Bargain Bats: Lawrence Butler, Colby Thomas

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Kansas City Royals vs. *Kumar Rocker (RHP), TEX

*Rocker has not yet been confirmed as the Rangers’ starter at the time of this writing.

It may or may not be Rocker on the mound for Texas today. He was optioned down to Triple-A about three weeks ago and has struggled to a 5.74 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 19.5% kRate, 47.5% HardHit%, and 1.54 HR/9 Rate at the MLB level this season. But, regardless of whether it’s Rocker starting for the Rangers or someone else, the Royals will be worthy of some low-owned leverage stack exposure.

Eight of nine hitters in the projected Royals lineup have a ≤ 5% pOwn%. Since the calendar flipped to August, Kansas City has firmly ranked in the top 10 in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, wRC+, and kRate. Their .200 ISO in that span (ranks 6th in MLB) is particularly encouraging, considering this lineup has been devoid of solid power-hitting for much of the season. The Rangers’ bullpen has also had its fair share of struggles, and their 1.81 HR/9 Rate over the last month is the second-highest in baseball.

Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Maikel Garcia

Bargain Bat: Mike Yastrzemski

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

1B Freddie Freeman, LAD vs. Tanner Gordon (RHP), COL

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. TBD, TEX

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL vs. Martin Perez (LHP), CWS

3B Junior Caminero, TB vs. Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY

C William Contreras, MIL vs. Colin Rea (RHP), CHC

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD vs. Landen Roupp (RHP), SF

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAD

OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC vs. Jacob Misiorowski (RHP), MIL

SS Zach Neto, LAA vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

OF Noelvi Marte, CIN vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS vs. Hurston Waldrep (RHP), ATL

SS Willy Adames, SF vs. JP Sears (LHP), SD

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX vs. Noah Cameron (LHP), KC

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Lawrence Butler, ATH vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

OF Ramon Laureano, SD vs. Landen Roupp (RHP), SF

3B/OF Miguel Andujar, CIN vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

OF Mike Yastrzemski, KC vs. TBD, TEX

2B Ozzie Albies, ATH vs. Martin Perez (LHP), CWS

OF Matt Wallner, MIN vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

OF Trevor Larnach, MIN vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

OF/SS Jose Caballero, NYY vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

OF Michael Harris II, ATL vs. Martin Perez (LHP), CWS

1B Luis Arraez, SD vs. Landen Roupp (RHP), SF

1B/OF Kody Clemens, MIN vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, CIN vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

OF Colby Thomas, ATH vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

SS Brooks Lee, MIN vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!