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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Another loaded MLB Tuesday rolls around, and we’ll have a quality 10-game main slate over on DraftKings with a nine-game main slate on FanDuel. The latter site will be excluding the second leg of the MIL at CHC doubleheader, which was rained out yesterday, hence the one-game discrepancy. Pitching is much better overall today, compared to yesterday, so we aren’t seeing as many high totals. But there are still several stack-worthy offenses to choose from, and Coors Field is also on the menu once again. This should be a fun one, so let’s dig into it. Best of luck!

Note: I had something unexpected come up today so, due to some time restrictions, I had to keep this newsletter on the shorter side!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣8/19 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• CWS at ATL (7:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): A cluster of storms is around this afternoon. If they linger longer than expected, we may see a late start here, but that seems to be the worst outcome.

• NYY at TB (7:35 ET, 8.0 O/U): Similar to ATL, storms are around in the afternoon/early evening, so a late start is a possibility. But once they get going, there should be no further issues.

• MIL at CHC (8:05 ET, 6.5 O/U): > Game 2 < Low-70s temps with 5-10 mph winds IN from left at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field. Bump to pitchers.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY | DK: $10k, FD: $10k | at TB

Rodon has been feast or famine over the last couple of months, and he has a tendency to crumble on the road. But the strikeout potential should keep him on the radar today. He owns a quality 27.9% kRate on the season, but it’s more about the matchup. Over the last month versus LHPs, the Rays have put up a .213 AVG, .625 OPS, 71 wRC+, and an MLB-high 28.4% kRate. Across 51 PAs versus the current Rays roster, Rodon has held them to a .152 AVG and .239 wOBA while boasting an excellent 31.4% kRate. There is still some volatility here, mainly due to some recent troubles on the road, but the potential for a ceiling game is on the table.

Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN | DK: $9k, FD: $9.9k | at LAA

Greene missed the better part of six weeks with a groin injury but returned in impressive fashion last Wednesday as he shut down a hot Phillies offense, allowing just three hits and zero runs across 6.0 IP (85 pitches) while striking out six and earning the win. Greene has been one of the premier flamethrowers in baseball, averaging 99.3 mph on his fastball with a 125 Stuff+ rating and 30.8% kRate. The fact that he reached a mid-80s pitch count in his first start back is also encouraging in regard to having little to no workload restrictions moving forward.

The Angels' lineup is no stranger to doing some damage against quality pitchers, but, on paper, there isn’t much impressive to write home about. Against RHPs over the last month, they own a low .224 AVG, .678 OPS, 90 wRC+, and an MLB-high 27.5% kRate. So, to state the obvious, the strikeout upside is what we’re after today with Greene. He can get into some trouble with a high flyball rate, but, assuming he gets up to around 90 pitches tonight, Greene could legitimately push for 10 Ks.

Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.6k | at COL

There isn’t much to love in the value pitching department, but Sheehan has been solid enough that we can consider him despite pitching at Coors Field today. He has provided serviceable numbers across 35.0 IP at the MLB level this season -- 3.86 ERA, 4.02 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, .226 opp AVG, 25.3% kRate, and 8.9% BB%. He had a ridiculous 45.6% kRate across 19.2 IP in the minor league this season, so the strikeout stuff is in his arsenal. The Dodgers (-301 ML) are also the heaviest favorites on today’s slate and, after getting walked off by the Rockies last night, they’re probably itching for some payback. So, assuming he goes at least five innings, Sheehan will probably be in a nice position to earn the win bonus.

It’s always difficult to pitch a super clean game at Coors Field, no matter who is on the mound, so we’ll likely have to live with some hits and runs allowed from Sheehan. But the Rockies also have an MLB-worst 65 wRC+ against RHPs over the last two weeks, so they’ve certainly been cooling off at the plate following a recent hot streak.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Nick Pivetta (RHP), SD | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.7k | vs. SF

Jacob Lopez (LHP), ATH | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.2k | at MIN

Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.3k | at ARI

Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8k | vs. CLE

DraftKings Main Slate Only

Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.5k, FD: N/A | at CHC

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

Non-Coors Field Stacks

San Diego Padres vs. Kai-Wei Teng (RHP), SF

Against RHPs L2Weeks (314 PAs), the Padres have ranked top 10 in AVG (.278), wOBA (.339), and wRC+ (131) while boasting the second-lowest strikeout rate (17.5%). They tend to be at their best at home and draw a favorable matchup today. Across 21.0 IP at the MLB level, Kai-Wei Teng has struggled to a 9.86 ERA, 6.30 xFIP, .306 opp AVG, 2.00 WHIP, 14.6% kRate, and 15.5% BB%. Having a walk rate that’s higher than your strikeout rate is never ideal for a pitcher. The Padres also just saw Teng six days ago and chased him off the mound after only 1.2 IP, but not before they racked up seven runs against him in that time.

Favorite SD Bats: Ramon Laureano, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado

Bargain Bats: Ryan O’Hearn, Luis Arraez, Freddy Fermin

Atlanta Braves vs. Shane Smith (RHP), CWS

It may be a lost season for Atlanta, but the bats have been hot! Since August 7th, no other team in baseball has scored more runs than the Braves (77), and against RHPs in that stretch (370 PAs), they’ve posted a .271 AVG, .821 OPS, .355 wOBA, .207 ISO, and 128 wRC+. When they’ve had runners in scoring position in that same span, they’ve put up a hefty 1.013 OPS, .422 wOBA, .311 ISO, and 178 wRC+.

Shane Smith comes in on the heels of back-to-back solid outings. However, spanning his last eight starts, he has accounted for a 7.44 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 57.9% Left-on-Base%, and 1.90 HR/9 Rate. The White Sox bullpen has been surprisingly solid since the All-Star Break, but if Atlanta gets to Smith early, they may not see the top arms out of the bullpen. The White Sox also used five relievers in yesterday’s high-scoring affair, so some of those guys may not even be available to pitch today. The ball was flying out of Truist Park last night, and we may see another shootout occur tonight.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Jurickson Profar, Matt Olson

Bargain Bats: Michael Harris II, Drake Baldwin

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

New York Yankees vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB

Every hitter in the confirmed Yankees lineup has a < 5% pOwn%. Kinda surprised to see such low projected ownership on the Yankees bats today, but we’ll see if we can take advantage. Their lineup has been heating up over the last week or so, and, spanning their previous six games, they’re hitting .277 with an .891 OPS, .381 wOBA, .233 ISO, and 147 wRC+.

Meanwhile, Shane Baz has been going in the opposite direction with an 8.28 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, and 33.8% LineDrive% over the last month (five starts, 25.0 IP). In 48 PAs versus Baz, the current Yankees’ roster also owns a .316 AVG, .446 wOBA, and 12.5% kRate. The Rays’ bullpen has been lights out and leads the MLB with a 33.1% kRate L2Weeks, so most of the damage that the Yankees produce tonight may need to come against Baz. But, even if it’s just a mini two or three-man stack, I don’t mind some of these Yankees’ bats as leverage options. George Steinbrenner Field has also been rated as the #6 home run ballpark this season, so some dingers could be in the cards.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Ben Rice

Bargain Bat: Jose Caballero

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!