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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A new week of MLB action gets rolling with a solid eight-game Monday main slate! It seems like today’s games will lean offense-heavy. Pitching isn’t overly strong, and six of today’s eight games possess an over/under of at least nine runs. There will certainly be plenty of ownership that lands on the Coors Field game, with the Dodgers in town, but plenty of other offenses find themselves in promising spots outside of Coors. Weather-wise, game two of the MIL/CHC doubleheader will be the primary game to look out for. Let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣8/18 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• CWS at ATL (7:15 ET, 9.0 O/U): Just a few low-coverage showers in the general area that will likely avoid the ballpark. Nothing more than low-end delay risk here. Warm temps in the mid-80s all evening.

• TEX at KC (7:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): More low-coverage showers and storms here that are unlikely to impact play. Hot temps around 95 degrees to start with light winds OUT to center.

• MIL at CHC (8:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): > Game 2 < As noted in the intro, this is the one game to keep a close eye on today. They’ll likely start dry, but rain chances rise significantly in the mid-to-later innings. It’s possible that rain will hold off until after the game, but if it arrives during the action, there is no guarantee they’ll be able to finish nine innings. If they’re smart, they’ll move the game up by an hour-ish. We’ll see if that happens, but, for now, stay cautious of this game and run a pre-game radar check to have a better idea of how things will shake out.

• LAD at COL (8:40 ET, 11.0 O/U): Warm with 10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.3k | at COL

It’s always a little scary going with a Coors Field pitcher, even when they’re an ace-caliber arm like Yamamoto. But, aside from a pair of duds against the Brewers and Angels, Yamamoto has been sharp overall across his last eight starts -- 42.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 2.96 xFIP, 1.10 WHIP, and 29.1% kRate. That stretch of Yamamoto starts began with a Coors Field game on June 25th, where he allowed just two baserunners (1 H, 1 BB) across 5.0 IP while striking out six. That start would have likely been even more impressive if a 1 1/2 hour rain delay hadn’t cut Yamamoto’s outing short, as he was only at 56 pitches before the weather delay hit.

The Rockies have not been total pushovers at times, but they’re on a skid against right-handed pitching recently. Against RHPs L2Weeks (332 PAs), they’ve put up a lackluster .655 OPS and 69 wRC+. The kRate hasn’t been overly high, at 21.4%, but there are still plenty of potential Ks to be had in this lineup. Six hitters in the projected Rockies’ lineup have at least a 24.0% kRate versus RHPs on the season. The Dodgers (-304 ML) are also, by far, the heaviest favorites on this slate, so it would be a surprise if Yamamoto doesn’t come away with the win bonus here.

Trevor Rogers (LHP), BAL | DK: $9k, FD: $10.5k | at BOS

Rogers got a late start to the season due to a knee injury, but over his 11 games and 69.1 innings, he has quietly put up some of the best results of his career. He has pitched to a minuscule 1.43 ERA this year alongside a quality 3.63 xFIP, 0.83 WHIP, 22.8% kRate, and 6.3% BB%. Spanning his last seven starts (47.1 IP), those results have improved to a 1.14 ERA, 3.51 xFIP, 0.78 WHIP, 23.9% kRate, 5.1% BB%, and hitters have just a .169 AVG against him in that stretch.

Boston has one of the better lineups in baseball, so it’s not a certified smash matchup for Rogers. But the Red Sox also haven’t been super dangerous against lefty pitching -- against LHPs L30Days, they’re right around league average with a .722 OPS, 98 wRC+, and 21.8% kRate. Fenway is very much a hitter’s park, but temperatures in Boston will be fairly cool this evening, in the low-to-mid 60s all night, which should be a benefit for pitchers. Perhaps it’s not the best spot for a ceiling game, but Rogers has proven to be a steady floor provider regardless of matchup. So, on a slate without a ton of quality arms to choose from, he should reside firmly on the DFS radar.

Nestor Cortes (LHP), SD | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.6k | at SF

Cortes represents some appealing value in the SP department today. He is now two starts in since returning from a four-month layoff due to an elbow injury. And he looked pretty good in his last start, pitching 4.2 innings of one-run baseball while striking out six. He was thoroughly impressive in his minor league rehab outings, where he provided a 1.00 ERA, 4.00 xFIP, 0.72 WHIP, 1.54 opp AVG, and 26.1% kRate over 18.0 IP. The Padres will likely continue to exercise some caution with his workload, but it would be reasonable to assume that Cortes will throw around 85 pitches tonight.

Cortes will be pitching against the Giants in consecutive starts -- it’s always a concerning factor when an offense gets to see the same starting pitcher twice in the span of a week. But the Giants have also been pretty miserable against southpaw pitching, which alleviates some of those concerns. Against LHPs over the last month (256 PAs), San Francisco owns a .203 AVG, .550 OPS, .246 wOBA, .089 ISO, 58 wRC+, 25.4% kRate, and 5.9% BB%. Awful stuff. Against Cortes’ primary pitch mix (four-seamer, cutter, changeup) this season, the Giants have ranked dead last in AVG (.209), wOBA (.264), ISO (.119), and they’ve posted the highest strikeout rate at 27.5%. So, there is a strong argument to be made that this is quite literally the best matchup that Cortes could ask for, and it doesn’t hurt that this game will be played in a quality pitcher’s park -- Oracle Park has ranked as the #5 most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $10k, FD: $9.3k | vs. CWS

Michael Wacha (RHP), KC | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.8k | vs. TEX

Brady Singer (RHP), CIN | DK: $8k, FD: $9.2k | at LAA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

Non-Coors Stacks

Atlanta Braves vs. Yoendrys Gomez (RHP), CWS

The Braves' bats have been on a nice run, and against RHPs over their last nine games (266 PAs), they’ve procured a .274 AVG, .821 OPS, .356 wOBA, .197 ISO, and 130 wRC+ while scoring at least five runs in seven of those nine games.

Yoendrys Gomez will be making only his second career MLB start this evening. His first start came last Tuesday against the Tigers, and it was a successful outing as he allowed just one run over five innings while striking out seven. However, he was pretty fortunate to have that amount of success considering he allowed an average exit velocity of 94.6 mph alongside a 70% FlyBall%. Across his 22.2 IP at the MLB level this season, Gomez has allowed a high 49.3% FlyBall% and a hefty 15.9% Barrel%. We don’t have a ton of MLB data on Gomez, and many of his minor league numbers are impressive, but it seems like a nice spot for a hot Braves lineup to take advantage of an inexperienced arm.

Favorite ATL Bats: Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Michael Harris II

Bargain Bats: Marcell Ozuna, Drake Baldwin, Jurickson Profar

Milwaukee Brewers vs. *Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

*Taillon has not been confirmed as the Cubs’ starter, but is currently the best guess to be their SP for game two of the doubleheader.

Assuming it is Taillon on the mound for Chicago this evening, we will like this spot for the red-hot Brewers. Taillon has been on the IL with a calf injury, and this would be his first MLB game since June 29th. Home runs have been an issue for Taillon this season, given his lofty 2.08 HR/9 Rate, and he hasn’t been overly sharp across his three Triple-A rehab starts, where he has pitched to a 5.54 ERA and 4.95 xFIP. As is often the case with doubleheaders, the Cubs’ bullpen could also be stretched thin in game two. Game one of the doubleheader is still ongoing at the time of this writing, but the Cubs’ game one starter, Cade Horton, only went 2.2 IP before exiting the game with a blister. So they’re currently using up several bullpen arms who likely won’t be available to pitch this evening.

Meanwhile, the Brewers have been incredible offensively. Against RHPs this month, they’re hitting for a .299 AVG (ranks 1st), .932 OPS (1st), .398 wOBA (1st), .251 ISO (1st), and 160 wRC+ (1st) while striking out just 17.3% of the time (lowest kRate in MLB in that stretch). The Brewers continue to rank as the #1 road offense in MLB, averaging 5.77 runs/gm. As long as stormy weather doesn’t cut this game short, the Brewers set up as one of the top non-Coors stacks on this slate.

Favorite MIL Bats: William Contreras, Christian Yelich, Brice Turang

Bargain Bats: Isaac Collins, Andrew Vaughn

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Chicago White Sox vs. Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL

Every hitter in the confirmed White Sox lineup has a < 5% pOwn%. The White Sox were one of the hottest offenses coming out of the All-Star Break, but they have come back down to earth recently, scoring two runs or fewer in five of their last six games. That said, a few of these CWS bats could still have a nice day against a struggling Spencer Strider, who heads in with an 8.68 ERA, 2.09 WHIP, .365 opp AVG, .482 opp wOBA, 3.40 HR/9 Rate, and 18.9% kRate over his last four starts. Strider also has a 25+% pOwn% on both DraftKings and FanDuel today, so even stacking two or three CWS bats should provide a great deal of leverage.

Favorite CWS Bats: Colson Montgomery, Luis Robert Jr., Lenyn Sosa

Bargain Bat: Mike Tauchman

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

2B Ketel Marte, ARI vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL vs. Yoendrys Gomez (RHP), CWS

C Williams Contreras, MIL vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC vs. Chad Patrick (RHP), MIL

3B Alex Bregman, BOS vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), BAL

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

3B Manny Machado, SD vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL vs. Dustin May (RHP), BOS

OF Noelvi Marte, CIN vs. Victor Mederos (RHP), LAA

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

SS Willy Adames, SF vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), SD

OF Taylor Ward, LAA vs. Brady Singer (RHP), CIN

SS Colson Montgomery, CWS vs. Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL

1B Kyle Mazardo, CLE vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Ramon Laureano, SD vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

1B Andrew Vaughn, MIL vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), CHC

C Drake Baldwin, ATL vs. Yoendrys Gomez (RHP), CWS

OF Jurickson Profar, ATL vs. Yoendrys Gomez (RHP), CWS

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL vs. Yoendrys Gomez (RHP), CWS

2B Lenyn Sosa, CWS vs. Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL

OF Michael Harris II, ATL vs. Yoendrys Gomez (RHP), CWS

3B Matt Shaw, CHC vs. Chad Patrick (RHP), MIL

3B Miguel Andujar, CIN vs. Victor Mederos (RHP), LAA

C Samuel Basallo, BAL vs. Dustin May (RHP), BOS

2B/3B Christian Koss, SF vs. Nestor Cortes (LHP), SD

OF Dylan Beavers, BAL vs. Dustin May (RHP), BOS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!