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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

As Thursdays generally go, it’s a fairly light schedule with just five games lined up on the evening main slate, which will get underway at 6:40 ET. This small slate looks like it could pack a big punch and is headlined by Tarik Skubal on the mound and a Coors Field game with a hefty 12.5-run over/under. However, several other pitchers, hitters, and stacks will also be responsible for making or breaking this slate, and it should be a fun set of games to build for. Let’s dive right into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣8/14 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• MIA at CLE (6:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): Around 80 degrees with 5-10 mph winds IN from center.

• PHI at WAS (6:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): Some scattered showers and storms in the general area. If one rolls over the ballpark, it could spark a delay, but it seems more likely that this game will remain dry and play without issues. Run a pre-game radar check to be more certain.

• ATL at NYM (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Looks like any troublesome weather should stay south of the ballpark. Worth checking closer to first pitch to be sure.

• DET at MIN (7:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): Tricky forecast here as slower-moving scattered showers and storms look to be in the picture this evening. It’s likely a mix of light rain that they could just play through, but there are also heavier downpours expected in the mix. A delay of some sort seems like a real possibility, and, at this time, a PPD cannot 100% be ruled out. This will be the one game where a pre-game radar check is most necessary before locking any players in. Assuming they will play, there will be some 10-15 mph winds blowing IN from right, which provides a bump to pitchers.

• ARI at COL (8:40 ET, 12.5 O/U): A few scattered showers in the general area, but they probably miss the ballpark altogether. Hot temps around 90 degrees to start with 5-10 mph winds OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.9k | at CLE

Tarik Skubal isn’t the only impressive arm on this slate, so you’ve got options if you’re not looking to spend all the way up on the Tigers’ ace (or if you’re looking for a quality SP2 on DraftKings to pair with Skubal). This is also the only non-Coors Field game that doesn’t have any notable weather concerns. Edward Cabrera has put together a very nice season up to this point, pitching to a 3.08 ERA, 3.51 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, and 25.7% kRate while forcing a high 47.9% GroundBall%. Dating back to June 19th, Cabrera’s numbers have improved across the board; in those nine starts and 55.1 IP, he has come away with a stellar 2.11 ERA, 3.16 xFIP, 0.81 WHIP, .171 opp AVG, 26.5% kRate, and 54.0% GroundBall%.

The Guardians’ offense seldom breaks through for a big game and, once you get past guys like Jose Ramirez and the power-hitting Kyle Manzardo, there simply aren’t many bats in this lineup that strike fear in opposing pitchers. Against RHPs L2Weeks (314 PAs), they check in at 24th in MLB in OPS (.672), 23rd in wRC+ (87), and they’ve struck out at a higher-than-average rate of 22.9%. We should fully expect another sharp outing from Cabrera in this spot.

Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI | DK: $8.4k, FD: $10.1k | at WAS

Reminder: Monitor weather here.

Bit of a head-scratching price tag for Luzardo on DraftKings today. He isn’t the most consistent pitcher around, but he is a very good lefty who draws an exceptional matchup today. Luzardo heads into tonight on the heels of three consecutive quality starts (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) and, on the season, he has pitched better than his 4.20 ERA would indicate, based on his much better 3.64 xFIP. His 26.8% kRate is also the second-best on the slate behind only Skubal, predicatably. Luzardo has also been elite at locating his pitches -- he is 5th among qualified MLB starters with a 117 Location+ rating this season.

But Luzardo’s biggest draw today will be his matchup with a struggling Nationals offense. Against LHPs L30Days (317 PAs), the Nationals have posted the second-lowest OPS (.606), wOBA (.267), wRC+ (69), and the third-highest strikeout rate (27.1%). Seven hitters in the confirmed Nats lineup today have kRates of at least 25.6% vs. LHPs, with four hitters (D. Crews, R. Adams, P. DeJong, and B. House) having at least a 34.0% kRate vs. LHPs. Star outfielder James Wood, who is a lefty bat, has been heating up the last few games, but he’s mostly been getting it done against right-handed pitching. And Luzardo has been an absolute monster in lefty-on-lefty matchups (.221 opp wOBA, .052 opp ISO, 0.00 HR/9 Rate, 1.42 ERA, 1.62 xFIP, and 41.7% kRate). As long as the weather cooperates, anything short of another quality start out of Luzardo would be a real surprise, and he should be able to rack up a ton of strikeouts in this matchup as well.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $11.9k, FD: $11k | at MIN (Monitor weather!)

Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.4k | vs. MIA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Bradley Blalock (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

Non-Coors Stacks

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Brad Lord (RHP), WAS

The Phillies have been a top-five offense versus RHPs over the last month, ranking 3rd in OPS (.804), 4th in wOBA (.342), 1st in ISO (.235), and 3rd in wRC+ (117). They have been, by far, the top team regarding home run per flyball rate with a 20.4% HR/FB% in that span, so, while they’re not hitting for an elite average, the power and home run-hitting numbers have been arguably the best in MLB in recent weeks.

Brad Lord has spent time as a starter and as a reliever this season. This will be his fifth consecutive outing as a starter. Overall, he has had some solid success this year, pitching to a 3.28 ERA, 3.69 xFIP, and 1.21 WHIP while forcing a 49.8% GroundBall%. However, he hasn’t been as sharp at home (71.2% less FPPG), and he has also only averaged 62.8 pitches/gm over his last five starts, so he isn’t likely to handle a traditional starter’s workload. But the key for this Phillies stack to pop off, in my opinion, will be to get Lord off the mound and get into the Nationals bullpen as early as possible. The Nats’ bullpen has simply been awful lately and owns a 7.26 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, .324 opp AVG, and 1.86 HR/9 Rate over the last two weeks. They’ve also combined to throw 218 pitches over the last three days, and Washington used five relievers in yesterday’s game, so bullpen fatigue could also be a factor.

Favorite PHI Bats: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner

Bargain Bats: Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh

Detroit Tigers vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

Bailey Ober has been a quality starting pitcher for the better part of the last three seasons and started this year off pretty well, but he has been in a nosedive in recent months while also missing several weeks with a hip injury. Across seven starts since June 6th (41.0 IP), Ober has acquired a 7.68 ERA, 5.20 xFIP, 1.41 WHIP, .398 opp wOBA, and 17.7% kRate. Perhaps most notably in that stretch is the fact that he has given up 16 home runs, resulting in a huge 3.51 HR/9 Rate! Ober has allowed a high 55.1% FlyBall Rate in that span as well, so he has been giving opposing hitters plenty of chances to go deep against him. Behind Ober will be a Twins bullpen that owns the third-worst xFIP (4.85) over the last two weeks.

The Tigers’ offense can be tricky to “get right,” but they certainly excelled in this matchup against Ober in a previous meeting this season. When they faced Ober back on June 28th, Detroit rallied for 11 hits, including four home runs, and seven runs across 5.2 innings, eventually finishing the game with 10 runs on 15 hits. It’s a tall order asking for a similar performance today, but this is a capable power-hitting lineup that features several home run threats throughout the order.

Favorite DET Bats: Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson

Bargain Bat: Colt Keith

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Atlanta Braves vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

Every hitter in the confirmed Braves lineup has a < 10% pOwn% with eight guys at ≤ 5% pOwn%. While their pitching staff is decimated by injuries, the offense hasn’t really been a major issue for Atlanta since the All-Star Break. Since the second half began on July 18th, the Braves are 12th in OPS, 10th in wOBA, and 8th in wRC+. They head into tonight scoring at least five runs in five consecutive games and, in that stretch, they’re rocking an .825 OPS and 133 wRC+.

Meanwhile, Kodai Senga has been trending in the opposite direction. Since missing a month due to a hamstring injury, he has not looked like himself on the mound. Spanning his last four starts, he has put up a 6.61 ERA, 6.00 xFIP, 1.78 WHIP, 2.80 HR/9 Rate, and his 17.5% kRate is exactly on par with his 17.5% Walk Rate. Now, Senga is a great pitcher and could regain his form at any moment, but, at low ownership, it seems logical from a leverage standpoint to stack up a few Braves bats just in case the struggles continue for the Mets’ righty. Outside of Matt Olson, all of the currently healthy Braves bats are pretty cheap as well, making them a potential stack to pair with those pricey Coors Field bats, or a high-end pitcher.

Favorite ATL Bats: Jurickson Profar, Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson

Bargain Bats: Michael Harris II, Marcell Ozuna

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

2B Ketel Marte, ARI vs. Bradley Blalock (RHP), COL

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI vs. Brad Lord (RHP), WAS

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

OF James Wood, WAS vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

1B Matt Olson, ATL vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

2B Xavier Edwards, MIA vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

1B Kyle Manzardo, CLE vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

3B Blaze Alexander, ARI vs. Bradley Blalock (RHP), COL

OF Jurickson Profar, ATL vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

C Drake Baldwin, ATL vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

OF Jakob Marsee, MIA vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

2B Bryson Stott, PHI vs. Brad Lord (RHP), WAS

OF Cedric Mullins, NYM vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

3B Colt Keith, DET vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

1B Tyler Locklear, ARI vs. Bradley Blalock (RHP), COL

OF Michael Harris II, ATL vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

3B Kyle Karros, COL vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

3B Graham Pauley, MIA vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!