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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Wednesdays are for the true baseball fiends as we typically get a lengthy dose of all-day MLB action! Today is no different, with plenty of games starting in the afternoon and going well into the evening. Depending on your site of choice, you’ll be looking at either a six-game (DraftKings) or eight-game (FanDuel) evening main slate. The FanDuel slate will include two games in the 6 o’clock window (SEA at BAL, MIA at CLE) and will get underway at 6:35 ET. The DraftKings slate has a more traditional start time of 7:05 ET. For the purposes of this newsletter, I will stick to spotlighting players and stacks only from the six mutually shared games. Let’s get to it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣8/13 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• SEA at BAL (6:35 ET, 8.5 O/U): Storms pushing in late afternoon/early evening and could linger around for a while. A late start seems like a strong possibility here, and, if things break a certain way, a postponement cannot totally be ruled out. The best course of action will be to check the radar closer to first pitch to get a better idea of how things will shake out.

• MIA at CLE (6:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Juuuuust enough scattered rain around to where a delay is a remote possibility, but not likely.

• MIN at NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Tricky forecast here as a scattered line of storms moves in this evening. Perhaps they start dry, but the risk of an in-game delay is certainly there. That makes starting pitchers riskier DFS options. But this is another forecast to double-check closer to first pitch.

• ATL at NYM (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): Citi Field is about 10 miles away from Yankee Stadium, as the crow flies, so this will be the same general forecast as the one above.

• TB at ATH (10:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Not overly warm (75-80 degrees), but 10 mph winds OUT to left will be a plus for the bats.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.7k | vs. CHC

You get a few more viable SP options over on FanDuel, but if we’re just looking at SPs from the six mutually shared games between DK and FD, the pool isn’t great. So we’ll spotlight Gausman to see if he can build on his current form and take advantage of a stumbling Cubs offense. Over his last four starts (26.0 IP), Gausman has procured a 2.42 ERA, 3.04 xFIP, .151 opp AVG, 0.73 WHIP, and 31.6% kRate. Great stuff. He has racked up at least eight Ks in four of his last six starts, and his kRate also jumps a few percentage points at home (26.3%) versus on the road (23.0%). The statcast data for Gausman over the last month is not pretty, but he has found a way to pitch very well in spite of those advanced numbers suggesting otherwise.

The Cubs' offense has been in a bit of a rut, scoring three runs or fewer in seven of their last ten games. Against RHPs in the month of August (257 PAs), the Cubs own a lackluster .221 AVG, .617 OPS, 75 wRC+, and 21.4% kRate. The Blue Jays have been a juggernaut at home this season, and they have one of the hottest offenses in baseball at the moment, so we have to like Gausman’s chances at receiving some quality run support, which would help put him in line to snag a win. And, if the Cubs’ bats remain cold, we should get six or seven solid innings out of him as well.

David Peterson (LHP), NYM | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9k | vs. ATL

Reminder: Monitor weather here.

As long as the weather cooperates in New York, David Peterson is going to be a fairly attractive SP option on this uninspiring pitching slate. The results have been more steady than spectacular, but spanning his last six starts (6.0+ IP in every start with five quality starts), Peterson has posted a 2.15 ERA, 3.72 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, 19.3% kRate, and 51.4% GroundBall%. The strikeout rate is nothing to get excited over, but his ability to consistently pitch deep into games has been a valuable attribute.

Between injuries and underperformances, the Braves are having a disastrous season, and, as a Braves fan, this season cannot end fast enough! Having said that, Atlanta has performed pretty well against LHPs lately, with a 113 wRC+ over the last month versus southpaws (ranks 10th in MLB). They also haven’t been striking out a ton versus lefties, with a 21.0% kRate in that same span. But Peterson does have some BvP history working in his favor. Across 101 plate appearances versus the current Braves roster, Peterson has held them to a paltry .200 AVG and .286 wOBA with a solid 24.8% kRate. As long as an in-game delay doesn’t derail Peterson’s outing, I’d expect a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) out of him this evening with a handful of Ks along the way.

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAD | DK: $8k, FD: N/A* | at LAA

*Ohtani is only eligible as a hitter on FanDuel today.

The low-end SP pool is pretty rough today, so we’ll throw Ohtani out there as a “cheaper” SP option on DraftKings. Considering he is still going to be working under some sizable pitch restrictions (he will be limited to four innings once again), it’d be nice if he were about $1,000 cheaper. That said, he did put up 21.8 DKFP with eight Ks in his last pitching start, despite only throwing 54 pitches across 4.0 IP. He has been impressive in general across his 19.0 IP this season, acquiring a sharp 2.37 ERA, 2.69 xFIP, 32.5% kRate, and 15.8% SwStr%. His stuff has been nasty (118 Stuff+ rating) and he’s averaging a career best 98.1 mph on his fastball.

Ohtani will also be facing his former Angels team, as a pitcher, for the first time, which throws a nice narrative into the mix. The Angels have been ace killers in recent weeks, but, despite putting up good numbers versus high-caliber arms, they check in with a subpar .225 AVG and 93 wRC+ vs. RHPs L2Weeks to go alongside a hefty 27.5% kRate. It’s a tall order, given his pitch count restrictions, but if Ohtani can manage to rack up a slew of strikeouts against this strikeout-prone offense, then he could very well end up being a solid bargain at SP on DraftKings today.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $10k, FD: $10.3k | vs. BOS

Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB | DK: $8.2k, FD: $7.8k | at ATH

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Trevor Rogers (LHP), BAL | DK: N/A, FD: $10.6k | vs. SEA (Monitor weather!)

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: N/A, FD: $9.8k | at BAL (Monitor weather!)

Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE | DK: N/A, FD: $9.2k | vs. MIA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Mets vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), ATL

This current group of healthy Braves starting pitchers barely qualifies as an MLB rotation, and they’ve helped plenty of struggling offenses right the ship. The Mets were in a bit of a freefall prior to yesterday’s game where they hung up 13 runs on 16 hits (six HRs) on Spencer Strider & Co. They’ll now draw an even better matchup versus Carrasco who brings a slate-worst 6.18 ERA, 4.82 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP, and 16.2% kRate into his ninth start of the season. Carrasco’s 74 Stuff+ rating is the worst mark among all MLB pitchers with at least 40.0 IP this season, so his pitches haven’t been anything close to even average quality. He is 15th percentile or worse in expected batting average, fastball velocity, kRate, and Barrel%. The Braves did manage to save their bullpen yesterday, and had an offday on Monday, so the top relievers are well-rested and ready to go if/when needed tonight. But if Atlanta gets in a sizable hole on the scoreboard early, then they may not deploy the best bullpen arms. Either way, the Mets should be able to get plenty of hits and runs against 2025 Cookie Carrasco.

Favorite NYM Bats: Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor

Bargain Bats: Cedric Mullins, Starling Marte, Francisco Alvarez

Tampa Bay Rays (LHBs Preferred) vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

Sutter Health Park (#2 most hitter-friendly ballpark) once again features the best hitting environment on the slate, and, after getting shut out in last night’s game, I believe the Rays have some real potential this evening. We’ll want to focus on the left-handed bats in this lineup, as JT Ginn has shown some extremely traditional splits in that direction.

He’s been good-to-great versus RHBs: .198 opp AVG, .251 opp wOBA, .147 opp ISO, 3.07 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 1.23 HR/9 Rate, 33.1% kRate

But awful versus LHBs: .287 opp AVG, .416 opp wOBA, .287 opp ISO, 6.16 ERA, 1.84 WHIP, 2.84 HR/9 Rate, 17.6% kRate

The Rays offense has had some issues in recent weeks, but, in this minor league ballpark, they should be able to do some damage versus Ginn and an A’s bullpen that has the 8th worst xFIP L2Weeks.

Favorite TB Bats: Brandon Lowe, Chandler Simpson, Josh Lowe

Bargain Bat: Jake Mangum

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cade Horton (RHP), CHC

Every hitter in the confirmed Blue Jays lineup has a ≤ 11% pOwn%. It wasn’t a massive day at the plate for this offense yesterday, but they were fairly productive with five runs scored on a dozen hits. I am a perpetual sucker for stacking the “home Blue Jays” who average 5.26 runs/gm at home (#2 home offense). They also remain the top overall offense versus RHPs over the last month (669 PAs) with a .328 AVG, .932 OPS, .399 wOBA, .219 ISO, and 159 wRC+ with a low 14.3% kRate.

Cade Horton has been pretty good over his last few starts, but, in general, he is simply a very average MLB starting pitcher, and that is reflected in his subpar 4.41 xFIP and 18.0% kRate on the season. The Blue Jays’ offense has rocked plenty of pitchers that are better than Horton recently, so there’s no reason to believe they can’t get some things going against him this evening.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Daulton Varsho, Bo Bichette

Bargain Bat: Ernie Clement

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), ATL

C Shea Langeliers, ATH vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR vs. Cade Horton (RHP), CHC

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY

3B Alex Bregman, BOS vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

1B Matt Olson, ATL vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

1B/2B Brandon Lowe, TB vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

3B Max Muncy, LAD vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

SS Jeremy Pena, HOU vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), BOS

OF Taylor Ward, LAA vs. Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAD

FanDuel Main Slate Only

OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA

OF Julio Rodriguez, SEA vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), BAL

3B/2B Jordan Westburg, BAL vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

OF Kyle Stowers, MIA vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

2B Luke Keaschall, MIN vs. Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY

OF Marcell Ozuna, ATL vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

1B Christian Walker, HOU vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), BOS

2B/3B Ernie Clement, TOR vs. Cade Horton (RHP), CHC

SS Anthony Volpe, NYY vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

OF Cedric Mullins, NYM vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), ATL

1B/C Victor Caratini, HOU vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), BOS

OF Starling Marte, NYM vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), ATL

3B Matt Shaw, CHC vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

C Francisco Alvarez, NYM vs. Carlos Carrasco (RHP), ATL

FanDuel Main Slate Only

1B Kyle Manzardo, CLE vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA

SS/3B Xavier Edwards, MIA vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

OF Heriberto Hernandez, MIA vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!