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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Another loaded MLB Tuesday rolls around with a dozen games on the main slate ticket! It’s looking like your fairly standard big slate with a solid mix of pitching and viable hitters/stacks to choose from. Also, there are only one or two game locations where we’ll have to worry about any rainy weather. Let’s waste no time and jump right into this thing! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣8/12 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• ATL at NYM (7:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Winds OUT to left around 10 mph.

• DET at CWS (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): There are some scattered storms around this afternoon, with a separate line of storms looking to move in this evening. Things clear up later tonight, so, with a little patience, they should be able to get this game in. A “delay and play” seems to be a likely outcome here, but, to be sure, run a pre-game radar check to get a better idea of how things will shape up.

• COL at STL (7:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): We may see some storms firing in the area around first pitch, so a late start should not be unexpected here. But, once they get going, there should be no further issues.

• TB at ATH (10:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Warm-ish with 10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $10k, FD: $10.3k | vs. PIT

There are a handful of high-quality arms at the top of pricing today, but each guy has their own set of drawbacks. We’ll be even more cognizant of those drawbacks following a Monday slate where every ace underperformed to some extent. However, the general consensus is that Freddy Peralta has the fewest downsides today. He has posted a couple of recent duds against the Cubs and Dodgers, but those are two top-flight offenses, so it's not a major surprise for Peralta to have struggled there. Peralta tends to be at his best at home (+25.5% more FPPG), where, across 67.0 IP this season, he owns a 2.13 ERA, 3.66 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, 27.1% kRate, and 6.6% BB%. Those are all solid improvements over his road splits -- 63.0 IP, 4.00 ERA, 4.47 xFIP, 1.25 WHIP, 24.7% kRate, and 11.4% BB%.

The Pirates tend to represent a strong matchup for opposing pitchers, but they haven’t been total slouches against RHPs lately. Against RHPs L2Weeks, they are right around league average with a 99 wRC+. However, they still strike out a fair amount (23.0% kRate in that span) and have posted the third-lowest ISO (.111) in that same sample size, so there hasn’t been much ‘pop’ in this lineup. Peralta also throws a heavy dose of four-seam fastball (56.2% USG%). That should play well versus the Pirates, who own the second-lowest wOBA (.309) against RHP four-seamers this season. With Paul Skenes on the other side, this game has an uncommonly low 6.5-run over/under; so, if you love a good pitching duel, this should be a matchup to tune into tonight.

Jacob Lopez (LHP), ATH | DK: $8k, FD: $8.7k | vs. TB

Lopez has been a bit of an enigma this season, but there is no arguing that he has flashed major upside. He most recently put up a monster performance against the stumbling Nats, covering 7.2 innings of shutout baseball, allowing just three hits, no walks, and striking out ten batters. Spanning his previous ten starts (53.2 IP), Lopez has pitched to an excellent 2.52 ERA, 3.73 xFIP, .195 opp AVG, 1.04 WHIP, and 28.9% kRate. He is very much a flyball pitcher (50.3% FlyBall% this season), but he has managed to maintain a low 0.80 HR/9 Rate over those last ten starts. Lopez’s strikeout rate has also climbed to an elite 32.9% when he’s pitched at home this season, compared to a much lower 23.8% kRate on the road.

The Rays got to another A’s lefty in Jeffrey Springs yesterday, chasing him off the mound after putting up four runs on seven hits in 3.1 IP. But it’s still worth pointing out that Tampa Bay has generally struggled against lefty pitching in recent weeks. Over the last month versus LHPs (289 PAs), the Rays own a .219 AVG, .671 OPS, 83 wRC+, and a 27.7% kRate. Those are well below-average results with a huge strikeout rate. Could they once again buck their recent trend of slumping versus LHPs again tonight? It’s certainly possible. Especially in this minor league ballpark (Sutter Health Park: #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark), which will feature quality hitting conditions. But the strikeout upside alone is enough to keep Lopez on the DFS radar, and it looks as if he could check in well below 10% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Nestor Cortes (LHP), SD | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.6k | at SF

If you want to go cheap at SP, risky as it may be, Nestor Cortes makes some amount of sense. He is still working his way back into big league form after sitting out most of the season with an elbow injury. The numbers are not pretty across his three MLB starts this season -- 7.11 ERA, 6.60 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP, 19.0% kRate, and 17.2% BB%. As you can tell by that lofty walk rate, location has been his main hurdle. His “stuff” has actually been above average, with a 104 Stuff+ rating. But he hasn’t been able to locate it well whatsoever (79 Location+ rating). There is only so much we can take from a three-start sample size, however, and he did look good in his second MLB outing this season (4/3 vs. CIN: 6.0 IP, 1 H, 2 BB, 0 ER, 6 K). He also posted quality numbers across four minor league rehab starts (18.0 IP), pitching to a 1.00 ERA, 4.00 xFIP, .154 opp AVG, 0.72 WHIP, and 26.1% kRate. He showed much better control, with just a 4.3% BB% in those minor league starts.

If Cortes could stitch together a solid performance, it’d probably be in this matchup. The Giants have ranked dead last in OPS (.564), wOBA (.250), and wRC+ (61) against LHPs over the last month while also posting a higher-than-average 24.1% kRate. The Giants put up a low 6.5% BB% in that span as well, so this is a spot where Cortes’ walk issues could be disguised a bit. The Giants also do not match up well against Cortes’ primary pitch mix. He has thrown either the four-seamer or cutter on nearly 80% of his pitches thus far. Against those pitches (from LHPs), the Giants are dead last in AVG (.207), wOBA (.272), and ISO (.129) while sporting the highest strikeout rate at 26.3%. So, there are plenty of reasons to believe that we could get a solid showing out of Cortes this evening.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT | DK: $11k, FD: $10.8k | at MIL

Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.5k | vs. MIN

Michael Wacha (RHP), KC | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.3k | vs. WAS

Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.7k | at LAA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Victor Mederos (RHP), LAA

The Dodgers are heating back up and have posted a .900 OPS, .382 wOBA, .227 ISO, and 150 wRC+ against RHPs over the last week (186 PAs). Getting Max Muncy back from the IL is a significant boost to this lineup, Ohtani is on one of his home run benders, and guys like Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Andy Pages have started to show consistent signs of life again.

Victor Mederos will be filling in for the injured Tyler Anderson (back/day-to-day). This will be Mederos’ first career MLB start. He only has 12.1 IP of experience at the big league level, all in relief, which has resulted in an 8.76 ERA, 6.13 xFIP, 2.19 WHIP, and 19.4% kRate. Mederos has operated as a traditional starter in the minor leagues. Across 103.0 IP in MiLB this season, he has come away with a decent 3.41 ERA, but that solid ERA is backed up by a poor 5.45 xFIP. He’s not a big strikeout guy and tends to give up plenty of hard contact. Mederos also made his last minor league start on Friday, so he will not be pitching on normal rest and, as a result, he likely won’t pitch more than three or four innings. So that will leave plenty of work left for the Angels’ bullpen to take on. The LAA bullpen has been pretty good recently, but they’ve easily been a bottom-10 bullpen this season, so regression could strike at any moment.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy

Bargain Bat: Andy Pages

New York Yankees vs. Travis Adams (RHP), MIN

The Twins are another team left shuffling in a makeshift starter with RHP Travis Adams getting the nod today. Adams has not looked great over his 19.2 IP this season -- 6.86 ERA, 4.65 xFIP, .316 opp AVG, .366 opp wOBA, and 54.3% Left-on-Base%. Adams likely won’t handle a full workload, so the Twins will be another bullpen set for additional work this evening. Over the last two weeks, the Twins’ bullpen has put up the second-worst xFIP (4.74), paired with a high 1.50 WHIP and 1.54 HR/9 Rate. The Yankees have been incredibly inconsistent against RHPs lately, but the matchup versus an inexperienced Travis Adams, plus a struggling Twins’ bullpen, is tough to ignore.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Cody Bellinger

Bargain Bat: Ryan McMahon

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Javier Assad (RHP), CHC

Every hitter in the projected Blue Jays lineup has a ≤ 10% pOwn%. I’m always willing to give the “home Blue Jays” some exposure -- they’ve ranked as the #2 home offense in MLB this season, averaging 5.26 runs/gm. They have also been the top offense in baseball against RHPs L2Weeks (337 PAs): .338 AVG, .962 OPS, .410 wOBA, .248 ISO, and 167 wRC+. They did have a monster series at Coors Field in that stretch, where they scored an absurd 45 runs over three games. But that doesn’t change the fact that several bats in this lineup have been locked in.

Javier Assad is set to make his season debut after recovering from an oblique injury. He is a pretty decent big league starter who also pitched pretty well across his rehab starts (18.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 3.54 xFIP, 1.25 WHIP, 27.3% kRate). But he’ll have his hands full trying to stop one of the hottest offenses in baseball.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Addison Barger, Bo Bichette

Bargain Bat: Joey Loperfido/Davis Schneider

Unfortunately, I’m a little pressed for time again today! So I’m nixxing the “one-off” and “bargain bat” lists. But I’ll have those back online tomorrow!

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!