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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A healthy 10-game Monday main slate will get the ball rolling for us this week! Top-to-bottom, we’ll have a pretty deep roster of talented pitchers to choose from, so I could see this being a slate where landing on the correct hitters/stacks will prove to be a bit trickier than usual. On the weather front, there will be one or two games we’ll need to keep an eye on, but, as of now, any postponement(s) would be a surprise. Every MLB team now has around 45 games remaining on their regular season schedule, so we’re really nearing the heart of the home stretch and, for postseason hopefuls, every game matters just a bit more at this point in the season! There is much to delve into today, so let’s get started. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣8/11 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• WAS at KC (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Scattered showers and storms in the general area. It’s probably more likely that the rain will avoid the ballpark, but if a storm pops in the wrong spot, we could be looking at a delay here. Bats should be safe, but pitchers will have some added risk.

• DET at CWS (7:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): Looks like this game will be locked into a dry start with rain chances spiking late. It’s another situation where it’s more likely that they’ll play a clean nine innings, but we also shouldn’t be totally surprised if there is a delay in the later innings. Temps in the mid-80s for most of the evening with light ~5 mph winds IN from right.

• TB at ATH (10:05 ET, 10.0 O/U): Warm temps, close to 90 degrees at first pitch, with 10 mph winds OUT to left at a minor league ballpark.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.3k | at LAA

Yamamoto is not immune to the occasional dud, but when he’s on, he performs as well as any ace in the business. He’s been particularly sharp over the last month, acquiring a 1.46 ERA, 2.32 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, and 30.9% kRate in that span (four games, 24.2 IP). He also hasn’t allowed a home run in that stretch and has a groundball rate that is a hair under 50%.

The Angels’ lineup has taken down many-a-chalk pitchers this season, thanks to their power-hitting ability. But they don’t hit for average, and they strike out a ton, so they’re generally going to represent a plus matchup for opposing pitchers. Against RHPs L2Weeks, they own a subpar 96 wRC+ with a .226 AVG and an MLB-high 28.3% kRate. Versus Yamamoto’s primary pitch mix (four-seamer, splitter, curveball), we’ll find that the Angels own the second-highest kRate (27.7%) and third-highest Whiff% (26.5%). The splitter isn’t an overly common MLB pitch, but Yamamoto has thrown it on over a quarter of his pitches this season. Against RHP splitters, the Angels have posted a gigantic 38.0% kRate and 37.1% Whiff%. So, that pitch should pay dividends for Yamamoto this evening. Other aces like Garrett Crochet, Nathan Eovaldi, and Logan Webb reside on this slate, but Yamamoto sets up as arguably the most appealing high-end pitcher for this Monday evening’s action.

Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH | DK: $6.9k, FD: $9.5k | vs. TB

There is a huge price discrepancy on Jeffrey Springs between FanDuel and DraftKings today, so he’s going to be a much more appealing value option on the latter DFS site. Aside from a poor showing versus the Guardians on July 20th, Springs has been rock-solid on the mound lately. Since July 8th (6 GS, 34.2 IP), Springs has pitched to a respectable 3.38 ERA, 3.84 xFIP, .198 opp AVG, 0.81 WHIP, and 21.5% kRate with just a 2.3% BB%. The strikeout rate hasn’t been phenomenal, but it's been pretty close to league average. But the low WHIP, as well as the nearly non-existent walk rate, really jump off the page. On the season, Springs has shown some pretty identical home/road splits, so pitching at home in this minor league ballpark hasn’t caused him any apparent issues.

The matchup with the Rays also makes Springs an attractive value option [on DraftKings]. Tampa Bay has had nearly 300 plate appearances versus LHPs over the last month, and, in that time, they’re hitting for only a .193 AVG, .594 OPS, and 62 wRC+. Their 29.1% kRate vs. LHPs in that same span is also the highest in MLB. They have shown some decent power (.171 ISO vs. LHPs L30Days), and Springs does own a fairly high flyball rate. Given the hitter-friendly weather conditions in Sacramento tonight, I don’t think it would be a shock if we see Springs give up a home run or two. But, odds are, any potential HRs off Springs will be solo shots, given the Rays’ general lack of base traffic that they’ve been able to put on against lefty pitching lately. At $9,500 on FanDuel, you’re probably better off finding the extra $700-$1,500 to get up to Crochet/Eovaldi/Yamamoto/Webb. But, at a generous $6,900 salary on DraftKings, Springs is firmly on the SP2 (or aggressive SP1) radar.

Bailey Falter (LHP), KC | DK: $6k, FD: $7.4k | vs. WAS

Reminder: Monitor weather here.

If you really want to get aggressive at SP, Bailey Falter could be worthy of a dice roll near the bottom of the barrel. There is no sugar coating it. Aside from a seven-inning, one-run gem of a performance against the Tigers on July 23rd, Falter has been in some lousy form these last couple of months. Honestly, it’s been a lousy season for Falter, save for around six or seven of his 24 outings up to this point. But we at least know he has the ability to put up a quality start, and the Royals (-156 ML) are also solid favorites to win today.

But this SP recommendation almost entirely leans on the matchup. Washington has been among the worst teams in baseball against LHPs -- over the last month versus lefties (273 PAs), they have mustered just a .190 AVG, .559 OPS, .248 wOBA, 55 wRC+, and 28.6% kRate. Ugly stuff indeed. Falter isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher (15.1% kRate this season), but if there is any matchup he could put up a solid strikeout total, it’d be this one. Seven hitters in the projected Nats starting lineup have at least a 25.6% kRate vs. LHPs this season, including five hitters over 30%. Expectations will remain low for Falter, but it also wouldn’t be a shock if he came away with around 20 DKFP/35 FDFP in this matchup.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Garrett Crochet (LHP), BOS | DK: $11.5k, FD: $11k | at HOU

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.5k | vs. ARI

Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.9k | at TEX

Jose Quintana (LHP), MIL | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8k | vs. PIT

Will Warren (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.7k | vs. MIN

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), PIT

The vibes are immaculate in Milwaukee, and they have been for a while now. They own a ridiculous 42-16 record since June 1st, and their 73-44 overall record is the best in baseball by a five-game margin. I’ve touched on it plenty this season, but their home/road offensive splits are quite drastic -- they’ve been the top road offense in baseball this season, averaging 5.76 runs/gm, but they’ve been a middle-of-the-pack offense at home, averaging 4.29 runs/gm. They’re at home this evening, but I’m not sure I care all too much about the season-long home numbers, given the amount of momentum this team is playing with. Over the last two weeks, the Brewers have been punishing left-handed pitching to the tune of a .308 AVG, .851 OPS, .368 wOBA, and 139 wRC+. That’s across a solid sample size of nearly 200 plate appearances. They’ve also piled on plenty of damage against Andrew Heaney -- across 64 PAs versus Heaney, the current Brewers roster owns a .339 AVG and .462 wOBA.

Heaney has also been in some terrible form over the last couple of months. Since June 19th (9 GS, 36.2 IP), Heaney has posted a 7.85 ERA, 5.90 xFIP, 1.61 WHIP, .311 opp AVG, .409 opp wOBA, 2.70 HR/9 Rate, and 12.4% kRate. He has allowed a crazy-high 38.4% LineDrive% over the last month, which is the type of batted ball that most often falls for a hit. In that same span, he is also in the bottom 5th percentile in barrelled balls allowed (13) and average batted ball distance (223.6 feet). And the bottom 10th percentile in average exit velocity (92.4 mph). Backing Heaney will be a struggling Pirates’ bullpen that has put up a 5.58 ERA L2Weeks (5th worst in MLB).

Favorite MIL Bats: William Contreras, Isaac Collins, Brice Turang

Bargain Bat: Andrew Vaughn, Joey Ortiz, Blake Perkins

Detroit Tigers vs. Elvis Peguero (RHP)/Tyler Alexander (LHP), CWS

RHP Elvis Peguero will serve as the opener for the White Sox this evening, while LHP Tyler Anderson is expected to pitch as the bulk reliever. Peguero will have one, maybe two innings in the tank today. He hasn’t seen MLB action since May 12th and hasn’t been particularly effective across his six MLB appearances this season (4.91 ERA, 5.85 xFIP, 1.64 WHIP). We can probably expect Tyler Alexander to pitch around four innings once Peguero exits the game. There is nothing particularly scary about his game either. Across 73.2 IP this season, Alexander has posted a lackluster 4.52 ERA, 4.18 xFIP, and owns a terrible 58.4% Left-on-Base%. He has pitched well when the bases have been empty, but any sign of base traffic has led to plenty of implosions on the mound.

The Tigers have easily been a top-five offense over the last two weeks, ranking 3rd in AVG (.287), 3rd in OPS (.350), 4th in wOBA (.361), 1st in ISO (.240), and 3rd in wRC+ (132). Strikeouts have been an issue for them, but, at least for the two pitchers we know we’ll see throw for the White Sox today, Detroit isn’t set to face high-kRate arms. The White Sox bullpen has pitched surprisingly well recently, acquiring a 2.05 ERA L2Weeks, but their 4.17 xFIP in that span also tells us that some significant regression is due.

Favorite DET Bats: Kerry Carpenter, Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene

Bargain Bat: Colt Keith

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Boston Red Sox vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

Every hitter in the projected Red Sox lineup has a < 10% pOwn%. Cristian Javier will be making his 2025 debut and has not taken the mound in an MLB game since May 21st, 2024, while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Prior to the TJ hiatus, Javier has been plenty good at the MLB level, pitching to a 3.59 ERA and 27.4% kRate over 501.0 career IP. But, as is almost always the case with pitchers coming back from Tommy John, there is some significant rust that Javier likely still needs to shake off before he gets back into form, and that has been pretty apparent across his minor league rehab starts. Over 14.0 IP (5 GS) in the minor leagues, Javier has pitched to a 5.14 ERA, 6.42 xFIP, 1.79 WHIP, and 23.4% kRate. Javier held hitters to a low .204 AVG across those rehab outings, but the reason his WHIP is so high is due to a crazy 23.4% Walk Rate, which is identical to his kRate. So, there have been some clear control issues for Javier as he works his way back to his previous MLB form. Javier built up to 77 pitches in his latest rehab start, so, predictably, he will face some light-to-moderate workload restrictions today. Backing Javier will be an Astros bullpen that has a strong 2.30 ERA L2Weeks, but also a 4.42 xFIP (8th worst) in that span, so they’re another bullpen due for some regression.

The Red Sox have been a fairly middle-of-the-pack offense lately, so there aren’t many numbers worth pointing out, but there is still plenty of upside with several bats in this lineup. Stacking up two or three of their best hitters at low ownership makes plenty of sense if you’re looking for some leverage on this slate.

Favorite BOS Bats: Jarren Duran, Alex Bregman, Trevor Story

Bargain Bat: Masataka Yoshida

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Zebby Matthews (RHP), MIN

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Cade Cavalli (RHP), WAS

C Shea Langeliers, ATH vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Will Warren (RHP), NYY

3B Manny Machado, SD vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

2B Jose Altuve, HOU vs. Garrett Crochet (RHP), BOS

OF James Wood, WAS vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), KC

OF Taylor Ward, LAA vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

1B Rafael Devers, SF vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

OF Jarren Duran, BOS vs. Cristian Javier (RHP), HOU

3B Junior Caminero, TB vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

C William Contreras, MIL vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), PIT

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

OF Kerry Carpenter, DET vs. Elvis Peguero (RHP)/Tyler Alexander (LHP), CWS

1B Willson Contreras, STL vs. Chase Dollander (RHP), COL

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), MIL

3B/SS Colson Montgomery, CWS vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), DET

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

1B Luis Arraez, SD vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

OF Isaac Collins, MIL vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), PIT

OF JJ Bleday, ATH vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

1B Andrew Vaughn, MIL vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), PIT

2B Luke Keaschall, MIN vs. Will Warren (RHP), NYY

OF Mickey Moniak, COL vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

3B Colt Keith, DET vs. Elvis Peguero (RHP)/Tyler Alexander (LHP), CWS

OF Blake Perkins, MIL vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), PIT

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

1B/2B Lenyn Sosa, CWS vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), DET

2B/3B Paul DeJong, WAS vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), KC

C Riley Adams, WAS vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), KC

SS Joey Ortiz, MIL vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), PIT

3B Kyle Karros, COL vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!