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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

It’s another busy baseball Friday with 11 games lined up on this evening’s main slate! The dust is still settling on what was a pretty active trade deadline yesterday -- some teams, primarily playoff-bound teams, got better overall, while others either stayed about the same or got worse. It’ll be interesting to see how some of the more notable trades shake out and impact the rest of this season, which is nearing the home stretch! For now, we’ll focus on the task at hand and aim to start the month of August on a profitable note. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣8/1 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• HOU at BOS (7:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Cool temps in the 60s with light winds IN from center/right.

• SF at NYM (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Around 70 degrees with light winds IN from right/center.

• MIN at CLE (7:10 ET, 7.0 O/U): 70 degrees with 5-10 mph winds IN from center/right.

• LAD at TB (7:35 ET, 9.0 O/U): Low-end chance of a late start if some afternoon showers linger around a bit longer than expected. 85-90 degrees with 5-10 mph winds OUT to right. Nice hitting weather.

• PIT at COL (8:10 ET, 11.5 O/U): A few scattered showers around so a late start or delay is possible, but not overly likely.

• ARI at ATH (10:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Warm temps with 10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $10k, FD: $10.2k | vs. TEX

Gilbert has missed time due to injury this season, but, among pitchers with at least 70.0 IP, he sits at the top with a 36.0% kRate and is 2nd, only to Tarik Skubal, with a 2.38 xFIP. Gilbert has also been lights out at home in the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park -- here is a quick rundown of his splits:

Home: 1.94 ERA, 1.73 xFIP, 0.65 WHIP, .132 opp AVG, 40.5% kRate

Away: 5.28 ERA, 3.27 xFIP, 1.47 WHIP, .278 opp AVG, 30.9% kRate

There are some absolutely crazy-good numbers within those home splits, and the 40+% kRate certainly jumps off the page.

The Rangers’ offense has cooled off since the All-Star Break -- against RHPs since the break, they’re 23rd in OPS (.686) and 24th in wRC+ (92). They may not strike out a ton, but their 22.0% kRate in that same span is right around league average. Regardless of the matchup, Logan Gilbert has simply been a monster at home, so we’ll keep him firmly on the radar today.

Nick Pivetta (RHP), SD | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.4k | vs. STL

Pivetta is another righty who has shown some markedly better home splits at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Here’s the home/away splits for him this season:

Home: 2.07 ERA, 3.06 xFIP, 0.86 WHIP, .185 opp AVG, 30.1% kRate

Away: 3.67 ERA, 4.16 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP, .213 opp AVG, 24.0% kRate

Pivetta’s road numbers are nothing to sneeze at, but his home splits are essentially ace-caliber results. He has also been in some excellent form lately -- spanning his last six starts (37.2 IP), Pivetta has procured a 0.96 ERA, 3.23 xFIP, 0.77 WHIP, .158 opp AVG, and 28.0% kRate while posting a 40:8 K:BB ratio.

The Cardinals have also been pretty awful against RHPs since the All-Star Break. In that time (406 PAs), they own a .213 AVG (ranks 29th), .623 OPS (29th), .281 wOBA (28th), .116 ISO (30th), and 80 wRC+ (29th). They’re not a big strikeout team (19.0% kRate vs. RHPs L2Weeks), and they did just face Pivetta last Friday, so perhaps it’s not a great spot for a ceiling game. But we should still have plenty of faith in Pivetta putting forth a solid all-around performance this evening.

Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.8k | vs. MIN

Following the trend of today’s pitching section, Gavin Williams also sports better home splits. I won’t do the full rundown, but his 3.05 home ERA is essentially a run lower than his road ERA, and his strikeout rate also goes from a subpar 19.0% on the road to a very solid 26.9% kRate at home. Williams’ walk rate, which has been an issue this season, also improves when he’s on his home mound.

Perhaps the most appealing aspect of this play will be the matchup. The Twins were incredibly active at yesterday’s trade deadline. They sent away several starting hitters (Willi Castro, Carlos Correa, Ty France, and Harrison Bader). The Twins’ best hitter, Byron Buxton, was also placed on the IL on Tuesday with a rib injury. There is a strong belief that the Twins are weeks away from being sold to new ownership, which could largely explain all of the moves at the deadline. Regardless, this is a pretty depleted offense at the moment, and a matchup that a solid starting pitcher, like Gavin Williams, should be able to thrive in.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.1k | at MIA

Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.3k | vs. KC

David Peterson (LHP), NYM | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.5k | vs. SF

Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.6k | at SEA

Janson Junk (RHP), MIA | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.7k | vs. NYY

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), PIT

Non-Coors Stacks

Athletics vs. TBD, ARI

At the time of this writing, neither team in this game has officially announced a starter. But, the current expectation is that the D-Backs will be rolling out RHP Anthony DeSclafani. DeSclafani has primarily worked as a long reliever this season and has only thrown 23.1 IP. He has had some decent results in that span -- 3.86 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, and 25.0% kRate. However, he has had issues with the long ball, posting a 1.93 HR/9 Rate and 21.7% HR/FB Rate. The D-Backs were sellers at the deadline, so this team is going to look a bit different moving forward. But, with DeSclafani likely only pitching around four innings, the D-Backs’ bullpen will be left to cover the bulk of the innings. Over the last two weeks, this bullpen has a lackluster 5.08 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and an MLB-worst .321 opp AVG.

Since the break, the A’s have been a top-five offense in baseball, ranking 5th or better in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+, and they’ve also trimmed their kRate down closer to league average in that span. Sutter Health Park remains the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark in MLB, and there are more hitter-friendly weather conditions out in Sacramento tonight (warm temps with winds blowing out).

Favorite ATH Bats: Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers

Bargain Bat: Darell Hernaiz

Chicago White Sox vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

This may be the first time all season that I’ve highlighted the White Sox as a primary stack option and not just a “low-owned stack that just might work out”. They have been putting up some legitimately good production against LHPs lately, and, given their dirt-cheap DFS price points, stacking up a few White Sox bats is an easy way to open up salary for high-end pitching and/or Coors Field bats. Across 157 PAs versus LHPs L2Weeks, the White Sox have put up a .316 AVG, .903 OPS, .385 wOBA, .250 ISO, 148 wRC+, and 14.8% kRate. Those are some outstanding numbers in a non-insignificant sample size.

They’re up against a not-so-great lefty in Tyler Anderson today. Anderson has had a handful of decent outings this season, but he brings a slate-worst 5.18 xFIP to the table and is in the bottom 10th percentile in barreled balls allowed L30Days. He has also been in some poor form -- over his last four starts, Anderson has acquired a 5.66 ERA, 6.47 xFIP, 1.69 WHIP, .389 opp wOBA, 2.20 HR/9 Rate, and 10.5% kRate. The key takeaways from that sample size are that he’s putting plenty of traffic on the bases and has had an incredibly difficult time striking anyone out. Anderson will be backed by a bottom-10 Angels’ bullpen that owns a 5.29 ERA L2Weeks and has also been giving up their fair share of home runs. On the season, the Angels’ bullpen has allowed an MLB-high 65 HRs, with the Rockies predictably being the next closest team in that regard (60 HRs allowed).

Favorite CWS Bats: Luis Robert Jr., Mike Tauchman, Edgar Quero

Bargain Bats: Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

Every hitter in the confirmed Blue Jays lineup has a ≤ 5% pOwn%. Targeting the “home Blue Jays” has been a successful strategy this season -- they’ve been the #2 home offense in baseball, averaging a healthy 5.35 runs/gm, compared to just 4.13 runs/gm on the road. Against RHPs at home over the last month (294 PAs), they’ve hit for a .309 AVG with an .842 OPS, .364 wOBA, 134 wRC+, and 13.3% kRate.

Michael Wacha is no slouch, but he has had his fair share of struggles on the road (averaging 56.9% less FPPG away). He is also allowing a high 32.1% LineDrive% over the last month, which is the type of batted ball that most often goes for hits, and he hasn’t been striking out many batters of late (15.2% kRate L5Starts). The Royals’ bullpen is also pretty mid and has covered a lot of innings this week, so fatigue could be a factor. With a little BABIP luck, the Blue Jays should put plenty of runners on base this evening, and if they’re really going to be super low-owned, they deserve plenty of consideration as a leverage stack.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Addison Barger

Bargain Bats: Daulton Varsho, Nathan Lukes, Joey Loperfido

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

OF Oneil Cruz, PIT vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. TBD, ARI

2B Ketel Marte, ARI vs. TBD, ATH

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

OF Cody Bellinger, NYY vs. Janson Junk (RHP), MIA

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), TOR

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), PIT

3B Manny Machado, SD vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

OF Jarren Duran, BOS vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. TBD, CWS

OF Brandon Nimmo, NYM vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

2B Brandon Lowe, TB vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD

SS Jeremy Pena, HOU vs. Cooper Criswell (RHP), BOS

SS Willy Adames, SF vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

1B Willson Contreras, STL vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), SD

2B Xavier Edwards, MIA vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Roman Anthony, BOS vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), PIT

1B Kyle Manzardo, CLE vs. Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN

OF Jasson Dominguez, NYY vs. Janson Junk (RHP), MIA

OF Jesus Sanchez, HOU vs. Cooper Criswell (RHP), BOS

3B Ryan McMahon, NYY vs. Janson Junk (RHP), MIA

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

OF Mike Tauchman, CWS vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

1B Warming Bernabel, COL vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), PIT

3B/SS Colson Montgomery, CWS vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

2B/SS Liover Peguero, PIT vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

C Yainer Diaz, HOU vs. Cooper Criswell (RHP), BOS

OF Joey Loperfido, TOR vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

1B Miguel Vargas, CWS vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

C Edgar Quero, CWS vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!