Top MLB DFS Plays & Props 7/9 | Anticipating Some Chaos on Wednesday's 11-Game Slate! ⚾

Wednesday, July 9th ⚾️ DFS Plays & Props for Today's MLB Action

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

No reprieve from the large slates just yet as an 11-game Wednesday main slate awaits! Pitching feels fairly weak for a slate of this size, but, on the opposite end, we’ll have a slew of hitters/stacks in excellent spots. 13 teams currently hold at least a 4.5 implied run total, and six games are pinned with at least a 9.0-run over/under. Rainy weather will be a nuisance in a couple of the East Coast games, so be sure to stay on top of those troublesome forecasts, which we’ll discuss below. It should be a fun midweek slate with a bit of chaos mixed in. Let’s get it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣7/9 Dinger Report💣

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

  • NYM at BAL (7:05 ET, 10.0 O/U): A large storm system is on its way to Baltimore. The heaviest rain should clear, or be in the process of clearing, around first pitch or soon after. But the wet weather will stick around well into the evening hours. They’ll probably have to commit to just playing through some lighter rain if they want to get this game in. As of now, there is some definite PPD risk. I’m going to keep NYM/BAL players on the board for now, but we’ll need to circle back and see how things are shaping up on the radar closer to gametime.

  • SEA at NYY (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): The heavy stuff should hold off until around midnight, after the game is over, but they may need to play through some light rain for some/much of this game. Definitely a better outlook than NYM/BAL, but we’ll still want to double-check the radar closer to first pitch.

  • COL at BOS (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): Rain should hold off until after the game. 70 degrees with light ~5 mph winds IN from right.

  • MIA at CIN (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): A few scattered showers and storms around. Not a huge concern, but if one makes its way over the ballpark, it could spark a delay. But the game will play.

  • ATL at ATH (10:05 ET, 10.5 O/U): Around 90 degrees to start with 5-10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kris Bubic (LHP), KC | DK: $10k, FD: $10.3k | vs. PIT

I can’t say I love the idea of paying five figures for Kris Bubic, but, on a slate that isn’t either top-heavy or deep at pitching, it makes sense for him to be priced at the top. He is having a quality season with a 2.36 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 25.6% kRate, and 14.1% SwStr% across 17 starts. Bubic has not been quite as sharp lately, with a 4.88 ERA and 1.55 WHIP over his last five, but his 3.70 xFIP is over a run better than the ERA and indicates he pitched better than the ERA would indicate. He also faced some stiff competition in that stretch with matchups against the D-Backs, Dodgers, Rays, and Yankees.

Bubic snags a promising matchup today against a Pirates offense that is typically non-threatening. Against LHPs over the last month (200 PAs), the Pirates own the 4th-lowest wRC+ (78) and 5th-highest kRate (24.5%). Against Bubic’s primary pitch mix (four-seamer, sweeper, changeup), the Pirates are hitting only .218 on the season with a 25.4% kRate. The Royals (-194 ML) are also the second-heaviest favorites on the slate, so, overall, it’s a nice spot for Bubic to deliver one of those higher-end DFS scores that he put up in the month of May. And, while he is the priciest pitcher on the board, there is ample hitting value available today, so it won’t be overly difficult to squeeze him into lineups.

 

Lucas Giolito (RHP), BOS | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.7k | vs. COL

Can we buy into Giolito’s current form? He was extremely boom or bust early on in his 2025 campaign, but he’s been outstanding over his last five starts -- 32.2 IP, 0.83 ERA, 3.69 xFIP, .177 opp AVG, 0.92 WHIP, and 24.8% kRate. Giolito also allowed just a 22.6% HardContact% in that span and gave up only two homers (0.60 HR/9 Rate).

We certainly can’t knock the matchup as the Rockies continue to rank near or at the very bottom of every key offensive metric against RHPs. Against RHPs L2Weeks (325 PAs), the Rockies have posted a .212 AVG (ranks 26th), .579 OPS (27th), .259 wOBA (27th), .099 ISO (27th), 49 wRC+ (dead last), and 27.1% kRate (2nd highest). And those numbers include plenty of plate appearances at Coors Field. The Rockies also have an MLB-high 28.1% kRate this season against RHP four-seamers, changeups, and sliders, which make up 97% of Giolito’s arsenal. The Red Sox (-337 ML) are, by far, the heaviest favorites on the diamond today. He’s going to be chalky, but, on a weak pitching slate, I believe we can place a fair amount of trust in Giolito’s recent form.

 

Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY | DK: $7k, FD: $8k | vs. SEA

Reminder: Monitor weather here.

There isn’t much to love, or even vaguely like, about the pitching bargain bin, so we’ll roll the dice on an MLB debutant. Cam Schlittler may have an unfortunate name, but he comes in highly touted as the Yankees’ No. 5-ranked prospect (via FanGraphs). The 24-year-old righty has impressed across 76.2 IP between Double-A and Triple-A this year, pitching to a 2.82 ERA, 2.69 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP, .237 opp AVG, and 31.9% kRate. He has also induced a high 47.8% GroundBall% this year. He has put up those stout numbers despite having a significant .350 opp BABIP against him (MLB average will generally be around .300 BABIP). Schlittler is a big boy at 6’6”, 225 lbs, and he boasts a mid-90s fastball that can touch 98-99, and it has some nice “ride” to it thanks to his extension. His pitch mix also includes a tight slider, a sweeping cutter, and a curve -- with the slider leading the charge -- while the changeup remains a work in progress.

The Mariners are a rock-solid offense led by the Big Dumper and a hot-hitting Randy Arozarena. But the rest of the lineup hasn’t been in top form, so, as a team, they haven’t had the highest level of success against RHPs lately. Versus RHPs L2Weeks (396 PAs), the Mariners have procured a sub-.300 wOBA, a .130 ISO (ranks 24th), 95 wRC+ (20th), and 23.5% kRate (8th highest). It’s always a major gamble to trust a guy making his MLB debut, but Schlittler has some pedigree and has shown the right amount of stuff in the minor leagues to be worthy of some DFS consideration today.

 

Other Pitchers to Consider

Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.2k | vs. MIA

Brandon Walter (LHP), HOU | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.5k | vs. CLE

Kumar Rocker (RHP), TEX | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.2k | at LAA

Andre Pallante (RHP), STL | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.8k | vs. WAS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Boston Red Sox vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

The Red Sox have teed off on a couple of lefty starters and a bad Rockies bullpen the last two days, and now they’ll look to do some damage against a righty in Antonio Senzatela. When they haven’t been bashing Colorado’s pitching staff, the Red Sox have been among the best offenses in baseball lately. Against RHPs since June 28th (235 PAs), Boston owns a .354 AVG (1st), 1.024 OPS (1st), .433 wOBA (1st), .252 ISO (4th), and 178 wRC+ (1st) to go alongside a 17.9% kRate (6th lowest).

Antonio Senzatela is quite easily the worst starting pitcher on this slate as he heads into start No. 18 with a 6.57 ERA, 5.00 xFIP, 1.90 WHIP, and 11.0% kRate. Of course, it typically hurts Rockies pitchers having to pitch at Coors Field for roughly half of their games, but there is not much separating Senzatela’s home/road splits this season, and, in fact, many of his road numbers are worse than his home results. Across 37.0 IP on the road this season, he has allowed a massive .380 opp AVG and .441 opp wOBA with a 2.14 WHIP, 5.81 xFIP, and 1.70 HR/9 Rate. The Rockies’ bullpen also heads in with a 5.65 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and .285 opp AVG L2Weeks. The Red Sox regularly pinch-hit for multiple guys once the opposing bullpen comes into play, but aside from that, it’s hard not to like the upside that this lineup brings to the dish today.

Favorite BOS Bats: Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Trevor Story

Bargain Bats: Roman Anthony, Masataka Yoshida

 

Athletics vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

The A’s jumped all over Didier Fuentes yesterday and, perhaps to a lesser extent, they may be able to do the same against a struggling Bryce Elder. Across his last four starts, Elder has been shellacked to the tune of a 12.64 ERA, 5.81 xFIP, 2.81 WHIP, .418 opp AVG, .540 opp wOBA, and 4.0 HR/9 Rate. His walk rate (11.8%) in that span has also nearly been as high as his kRate (13.8%). His stuff just isn’t fooling big league hitters.

The A’s may not hit for average, but they’ve displayed plenty of power, ranking 3rd versus RHPs L2Weeks with a .225 ISO and 1st with a 19.6% HR/FB Rate. Sutter Health Park continues to rank as the No. 2 most hitter-friendly ballpark, behind only Coors Field, and there are some nice hitting conditions out in Sacramento again this evening. The only knock here is that the Braves didn’t use their best bullpen arms yesterday and, after having an off day on Monday, all of the quality Atlanta relievers will be available to come in once Elder inevitably runs into major trouble.

Favorite ATH Bats: Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler

Bargain Bat: Max Muncy

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

Outside of the red-hot Corey Seager (13% pOwn%), every other hitter in the projected Rangers’ lineup has a < 8% pOwn%. The Rangers have been a disappointing offense for ~90% of this season, but they’ve been righting the ship of late. Over their last eight games against RHPs (225 PAs), they’ve put up a .799 OPS, .349 wOBA, and 126 wRC+. They’ve also stolen an MLB-leading 11 bases in that span, which is always a plus.

Kyle Hendricks has admittedly been pretty solid of late with a sub-3.00 ERA and 1.13 WHIP L5Games. But he is absolutely a contact pitcher who has produced a lackluster 4.68 ERA,  4.76 xFIP, 15.9% kRate, 7.9% SwStr%, and 83 Stuff+ rating this season. This current Rangers’ roster also has some solid BvP history against him with a .316 AVG, .408 wOBA, and 11.9% kRate across 42 PAs. Not a significant sample size, but notable enough. Hendricks doesn’t typically hit a high pitch count, so the Rangers should see a fair bit of the Angels’ bottom-10 ranked bullpen.

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Evan Carter

Bargain Bats: Wyatt Langford, Adolis Garcia, Jake Burger

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Logan Evans (RHP), SEA

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Cade Horton (RHP), CHC

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), SD

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), BAL

SS CJ Abrams, WAS vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC vs. David Festa (RHP), MIN

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Brandon Walter (LHP), HOU

1B Matt Olson, ATL vs. Mitch Spence (RHP), ATH

SS Zach Neto, LAA vs. Kumar Rocker (RHP), TEX

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

2B Jose Altuve, HOU vs. Slade Cecconi (RHP), CLE

OF Jarren Duran, BOS vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

1B Willson Contreras, STL vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

OF Tyler Freeman, COL vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), BOS

 

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

2B Xavier Edwards, MIA vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

OF Jasson Dominguez, NYY vs. Logan Evans (RHP), SEA

1B Luis Arraez, SD vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

C Agustin Ramirez, MIA vs. Andrew Abbott (LHP), CIN

OF Ramon Laureano, BAL vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

OF Giancarlo Stanton, NYY vs. Logan Evans (RHP), SEA

3B Jordan Westburg, BAL vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

OF Jurickson Profar, ATL vs. Mitch Spence (RHP), ATH

SS Carlos Correa, MIN vs. Cade Horton (RHP), CHC

3B Max Muncy, ATH vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

1B Jake Burger, TEX vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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