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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A behemoth waits in the wings in the form of a massive 13-game Tuesday slate! We’ve got a fairly strong batch of arms to choose from, and, with 26 teams in play, there are ample hitters/stacks that will set up well this evening. There will be a couple of spots to monitor for weather concerns -- more on that below. No time to waste, so let’s jump right into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣7/8 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• SEA at NYY (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): Likely dry to start, but a line of storms looks to move in during the middle/later innings. Perhaps they can play through it if it’s only lighter rain, but there will be some legitimate delay risk here. I don’t believe it’ll be a washout, but any delay could be fairly lengthy. Double-check this forecast closer to first pitch for a better idea of how things will play out. Temps in the 80s with 5-10 mph winds OUT to center/left.

• COL at BOS (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): A few scattered showers around, but nothing that looks too menacing. They should be alright here with only low-end delay risk. Around 80 degrees with light winds IN from right/center.

• PIT at KC (7:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): Low-coverage storms are expected around late afternoon, so a late start may be needed, but it's not overly likely. Mid-to-upper 80s temps with ~5 mph winds, mostly left-to-right, a bit IN from left.

• CHC at MIN (7:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): Low-80s temps with ~10 mph winds OUT to center/right.

• TOR at CWS (7:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): Scattered showers and storms in the general area, so there is some decent delay risk. PPD unlikely.

• WAS at STL (7:45 ET, 8.0 O/U): A line of storms heads late afternoon or perhaps around first pitch. It’s clear beyond that, so a late start is the worst outcome here.

• ATL at ATH (10:05 ET, 10.5 O/U): Around 80 degrees for much of the game with 10 mph winds OUT to left. Nice hitting conditions in a minor league ballpark.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $11k, FD: $10.8k | vs. CLE

Brown heads into start No. 18 of the season with an MLB-leading 1.82 ERA, which is backed up by a stout 2.66 xFIP, 0.90 WHIP, and 32.1% kRate. He’s been extra filthy at home, where he’s rocking a 1.01 ERA, 2.14 xFIP, .144 opp AVG, 0.76 WHIP, and a whopping 36.9% kRate. That’s just five earned runs given up across 44.2 IP at home, to go along with 59 strikeouts. Brown’s statcast data from the last month is green across the board, so luck is playing no part in his dominance on the mound.

The Guardians have been a welcoming matchup for opposing pitchers this season, and particularly of late. Against RHPs L2Weeks, they’re hitting for an MLB-worst .184 AVG alongside a .575 OPS, 60 wRC+, and 23.1% kRate. Brown had a solid outing against the Guardians when he faced them a month ago. While he only went 5.1 innings on 101 pitches, he allowed just one run on four hits and five walks while striking out nine. The walks were clearly an issue in that game, but the free passes have not been a real problem for Brown this season, given his better-than-average 7.4% BB%. That game was also on the road, where Brown’s numbers haven’t been quite as strong as his home splits. So, if he throws around 100 pitches again tonight, he should easily clear 6+ innings against this struggling Guardians lineup.

Seth Lugo (RHP), KC | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.7k | vs. PIT

Lugo continued to build on his excellent recent form last week in Seattle and has now scored 25+ DKFP/41+ FDFP in four consecutive outings. In that four-start stretch, Lugo has pitched to a 1.11 ERA, 3.47 xFIP, .170 opp AVG, 0.95 WHIP, and 31.6% kRate. The xFIP has been over two runs higher than his actual ERA, so he has been the beneficiary of a bit of good fortune in that stretch. At the same time, a mid-3 xFIP is far from a bad result. It also wasn’t as if he was going up against a bunch of scrubby offenses in those games with road matchups against the Mariners, Padres, and Rangers, and a home game versus the Dodgers.

As far as his matchup goes today, it’s certainly a positive one. The Pirates have firmly been a bottom-five offense versus RHPs this season and own an MLB-worst .107 ISO against righties this season. Against RHPs L2Weeks (330 PAs), they have only a .624 OPS, .100 ISO, 72 wRC+, and a high 25.5% kRate. Lugo has an extremely deep arsenal and has thrown ten different pitches this season, which may very well be the most among any pitcher in baseball. If we look at just his top three most utilized pitch types (four-seamer, curveball, sinker), we’ll find that the Pirates have the second-lowest wOBA and *the* lowest ISO. There just isn’t a ton of pop in this lineup, and Pittsburgh’s kRate has been climbing as well. So, while Lugo is pitching above his talent level lately and will regress to the mean eventually, I wouldn’t count on that happening just yet.

Eury Perez (RHP), MIA | DK: $6k, FD: $7.7k | at CIN

There are usually going to be a few arms worth gambling on across a 13-game slate, and Eury Perez will get the spotlight from me today. Many may recall that Perez was once one of the top prospects in all of baseball, and he put forth a very strong 2023 rookie campaign (3.15 ERA, .211 opp AVG, 1.13 WHIP, 28.9% kRate across 91.1 IP). Tommy John surgery caused him to miss the entire 2024 season, and he has struggled since making his debut this season a month ago, but he is coming off of what was by far his best start of 2025 last Thursday against the Cardinals. In that game, Perez threw six shutout innings on 80 pitches, allowing only two baserunners (one hit, one walk), and he struck out seven would-be hitters. He also generated an absurd 20 swinging strikes in that game, representing a 25% SwStr%, and his fastball topped out at 99.5 mph. The towering 6’8” righty only just turned 22 back in April, so there is a ton of baseball left in his future, and perhaps his last outing was a sign that he has shaken off most of the Tommy John layoff rust.

He gets a promising matchup this evening against a Reds offense that has faltered of late. Against RHPs L2Weeks (285 PAs), Cincy is hitting for just a .217 AVG (ranks 27th), .573 OPS (last), .259 wOBA (29th), .078 ISO (last), 57 wRC+ (29th), and 23.2% kRate (9th highest). If Perez truly did turn a corner in that last start, then he could end up being a major bargain at these current price points. There is still plenty of risk associated here, but there is also major leverage to be had with Perez checking in with < 5% pOwn% on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Robbie Ray (LHP), SF | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.3k | vs. PHI

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX | DK: $10k, FD: $9.4k | at LAA

Sonny Gray (RHP), STL | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.6k | vs. WAS

Will Warren (RHP), NYY | DK: $8k, FD: $8.3k | vs. SEA (Monitor weather)

Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.9k | vs. TEX

Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.4k | vs. COL (Monitor weather)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Athletics vs. Didier Fuentes (RHP), ATL

The A’s bats are on the upswing recently with an .811 OPS, .347 wOBA, .253 ISO, and 120 wRC+ against RHPs over the last week (184 PAs). They’re also playing at home at Sutter Health Park (No. 2 most hitter-friendly ballpark) with some nice hitting weather in the forecast (warm temps with 10 mph winds out to left).

However, the main draw here will be facing off with an inexperienced right-hander in Didier Fuentes, who is set to make only his fourth MLB start, which is also just his 13th start above the Low-A minor league level. It’s only a 12.0 IP sample size in the big leagues, but Fuentes has come away with a 9.00 ERA, 4.88 xFIP, 1.83 WHIP, .340 opp AVG, 2.25 HR/9 Rate, and 17.2% kRate. He has surrendered a lofty 39.5% LineDrive% (aka the most common batted balls that go for hits), a 53.5% HardHit%, and a 93.4 mph average exit velocity, which places him in the bottom 5th percentile of pitchers. Fuentes also doesn’t possess a deep arsenal and has relied on the four-seam fastball on 57.3% of his pitches. That could be bad news [for Fuentes] against this A’s lineup. Against RHP four-seamers this season, the A’s are 1st in MLB with a .290 AVG, 3rd with a .376 wOBA, and 6th with a .206 ISO. Fuentes likely won’t pitch very deep in this game, and the Braves did have an off day yesterday, so the bullpen (which has been pretty solid) is fresh. But Fuentes could easily get ambushed in this spot in what is easily the best hitting environment on the slate.

Favorite ATH Bats: Nick Kurtz, Lawrence Butler, Brent Rooker

Bargain Bat: Max Muncy

Chicago Cubs vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

It’s never a bad idea to target the Cubbies on the road against a flyball pitcher, and that’s the spot they’ll be in today. The Cubs have been the No. 2 road offense this season, averaging 5.57 runs/gm, and they’ve been the No. 1 offense against RHPs L2Weeks (292 PAs) -- .304 AVG (1st), .933 OPS (1st), .397 wOBA (1st), .266 ISO (1st), and 159 wRC+ (1st). They’re also 3rd with a 17.3% HR/FB Rate versus righties in that same span.

I wouldn’t label Simeon Woods Richardson as an awful pitcher, but there is nothing special about his 4.41 ERA and 4.75 xFIP across a dozen starts this season. And he has allowed a high 48.9% FlyBall% on the year. Lefty Cubs bats should also get preferred treatment when building any Cubs stacks today, as SWR has been notably worse versus LHBs -- .308 AVG, .377 wOBA, .178 ISO, 6.08 ERA, 5.37 xFIP, and 1.69 HR/9 Rate. The Twins’ bullpen has been pitching a bit better of late, but they have still accounted for a 1.51 WHIP (4th worst) and .283 opp AVG (2nd worst) over the previous two weeks. Target Field has also rated as the No. 8 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

Favorite CHC Bats: Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong

Bargain Bat: Carson Kelly

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

Every hitter in the confirmed Cardinals lineup has a < 9% pOwn%, and seven hitters have a ≤ 3% pOwn%. There is not much star power or many big hitters within this St. Louis lineup, but that hasn’t stopped them from being a top-10 offense versus RHPs L2Weeks (.762 OPS, .188 ISO, 115 wRC+).

They will face a laboring Jake Irving today, who heads in with a 7.12 ERA, 4.80 xFIP, 1.64 WHIP, .405 opp wOBA, 2.50 HR/9 Rate, and 16.6% kRate over his last seven starts (36.2 IP). Irvin has plenty of poor statcast data to go along with those results. Over the last month, Irvin has allowed 13 barreled balls (bottom 5% of pitchers), 91.7 mph average exit velo (bottom 10%), and 192.3 feet average batted ball distance (bottom 20%). Behind Irvin will be a bottom-five Nationals bullpen that owns an MLB-worst 4.63 xFIP on the season.

Favorite STL Bats: Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, Willson Contreras

Bargain Bat: Nolan Gorman

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Jacob Misiorowski (RHP), MIL

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC

OF Kyle Tucker, CHC vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), SD

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA

SS CJ Abrams, WAS vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

1B Matt Olson, ATL vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

2B Jose Altuve, HOU vs. Joey Cantillo (LHP), CLE

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Didier Fuentes (RHP), ATL

OF Randy Arozarena, SEA vs. Will Warren (RHP), NYY

3B Rafael Devers, SF vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

OF Kyle Stowers, MIA vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

1B/2B Romy Gonzalez, BOS vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

OF Tyler Freeman, COL vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

3B/OF Addison Barger, TOR vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CWS

2B/OF Brendan Donovan, STL vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Ceddanne Rafaela, BOS vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

SS Willy Adames, SF vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

OF Cam Smith, HOU vs. Joey Cantillo (LHP), CLE

OF Roman Anthony, BOS vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Alec Burleson, STL vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

SS Otto Lopez, MIA vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

C Agustin Ramirez, MIA vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

3B Nolan Gorman, STL vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

C Yainer Diaz, HOU vs. Joey Cantillo (LHP), CLE

OF Micky Moniak, COL vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

OF Rob Refsnyder, BOS vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

C Sean Murphy, ATL vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

OF Jurickson Profar, ATL vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

3B Caleb Durbin, MIL vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD

1B/3B Abraham Toro, BOS vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Nathan Lukes, TOR vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CWS

3B Max Muncy, ATH vs. Didier Fuentes (RHP), ATL

3B Nate Eaton, BOS vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!