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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

I hope everyone had an excellent Fourth of July weekend! We’ll jump back into the MLB action with a healthy nine-game Monday main slate! There is an abundance of solid-to-elite arms on the mound today, so it won’t be a surprise if this is a lower-scoring slate. Four games are pinned with a 7.5-run over/under, which is a bit of a rarity. Inevitably, a few offenses will break through despite a challenging pitching matchup, so don’t hesitate to get bold with your hitter/stack selections. Let’s jump into the action. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣7/7 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• COL at BOS (7:10 ET, 10.0 O/U): There are a few small showers/storms around, but there is a strong chance they’ll avoid the ballpark. It’s set to be warm and humid in Fenway tonight with 10 mph winds OUT to left toward the Green Monster. Great spot for bats in an already hitter-friendly ballpark.

• MIA at CIN (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): A line of storms moves through this afternoon and could linger into the early evening. The trailing end of the stormline should hold south of Cincy, but it will be worth double-checking the radar closer to first pitch. Right now, I’d say the worst outcome would be a late start, but we’ll see if that changes.

• PIT at KC (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): I’m not seeing too much trouble here, but rain chances do spike briefly in the evening, so a delay can’t be ruled out. Once again, check closer to first pitch for a more accurate outlook. 90 degrees at first pitch with light winds a bit left-to-right, a bit OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jacob deGrom (RHP), TEX | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11.2k | at LAA

The deGrominator has proven that he still has “it” this season and has gone 14 consecutive starts without allowing more than two earned runs. In that span (86.2 IP), he’s boasting a 1.77 ERA, 3.03 xFIP, .184 opp AVG, 0.82 WHIP, 26.9% kRate, and 4.6% BB%. He has been particularly filthy over his last five starts -- 32.0 IP, 1.69 ERA, 2.77 xFIP, .164 opp AVG, 0.69 WHIP, 29.3% kRate, 3.4% BB%. Though, admittedly, he drew some very favorable matchups in that stretch. Among qualified MLB starters, deGrom trails only Tarik Skubal with a 121 Pitching+ rating, which further tells us that both his pitch quality and his plate command have been at an elite level. The only real knock on deGrom is that the Rangers [wisely] stay very cautious with his pitch count. He has gotten up to as high as 103 pitches in a game this season, but he is generally going to only throw around 80-90 pitches in most outings. However, thanks to his elite stuff and command, deGrom has still cleared at least six innings pitched in 10 of his last 14 starts.

deGrom draws an interesting matchup today. Several Angels hitters have been hot at the plate, and they head in ranking 5th in wOBA (.354) and 4th in wRC+ (127) against RHPs L2Weeks. However, they continue to strike out at a high clip -- 24.3% kRate vs. RHPs L2Weeks, 6th highest. Also, against deGrom’s two primary pitches, the four-seamer and the slider, which make up about 85% of his total pitches thrown, the Angels have the second-highest kRate on the season at 26.9%. As long as he keeps the top five hitters in this lineup in check, there are a ton of Ks and easy outs to be had in the latter half of the Angels’ order.

Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10k | at SF

The main criticism of Cristopher Sanchez last season was his inconsistency on the road, where he posted drastically worse splits (but was elite at home). He has shaken that trend this season and has put up very similar numbers both at home and on the road -- perhaps it’s a sign of mental maturity and confidence for the now 28-year-old lefty. Sanchez also heads into tonight’s game in some strong form; over his previous five starts (35.0 IP), he has pitched to a stellar 1.80 ERA, 2.41 xFIP, 0.80 WHIP, .203 opp AVG, 25.8% kRate, and 1.5% BB%. He has issued just two walks in that span (and zero in his last four starts) while covering at least seven innings in four of five games. His strikeout rate hasn’t been overly high in this recent stretch, but he also faced four offenses (SD, HOU, MIA, TOR) that are among the top seven in lowest kRate against LHPs this season.

Sanchez draws a very appealing matchup versus the Giants this evening. Against LHPs over the last month, San Francisco has hit for a .214 AVG, .644 OPS, 82 wRC+, and 26.1% kRate. Sanchez put up his best DFS score of the season against this same Giants team back on April 17th when he punched out 12 batters and allowed only two earned runs on four hits and a walk across 7.0 IP (97 pitches). We can’t count on him to replicate such an ostentatious performance, but a 30 DKFP/50 FDFP result is well within reach for Sanchez in this spot.

Andrew Heaney (LHP), PIT | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.6k | at KC

Reminder: Monitor weather here.

I don’t believe the first two pitchers discussed today are going to fly under the radar whatsoever, so we’ll switch gears with our value pitcher spotlight. Andrew Heaney has had a very mixed bag of results this season but he has also displayed a high ceiling several times and enters into tonight on the heels of one of those impressive outings; last Monday against the Cardinals: 6.2 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 0 ER, and 7 Ks -- good for 30.6 DKFP/51 FDFP. Outside of a fairly decent 1.20 WHIP, there is nothing special about Heaney’s season-long numbers (4.16 ERA, 4.38 xFIP, 18.4% kRate, 9.1% SwStr%). But there is reason for optimism in this spot.

The Royals have been one of the more disappointing offenses this season and are 26th in MLB with a 73 wRC+ versus LHPs. However, due to their typically low strikeout rate, they aren’t often viewed as an offense to attack with pitching, but that has changed lately… at least versus lefties. While it is a rather small sample size of only 80 plate appearances, the Royals have struck out at a monster 32.5% clip versus LHPs L2Weeks. And, for what it’s worth, they’re also 27th in wOBA (.270) and have a moderately high kRate (23.6%) versus Heaney’s primary pitch mix of four-seamer, changeup, and slider. Heaney has a wide range of outcomes tonight, but this is arguably his best matchup in months, and he should only be around 5% ownership this evening. If you’re feeling frisky, he’s worth a dart throw in some more aggressive lineup builds.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.6k | at MIL

Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.7k | at CWS

Noah Cameron (LHP), KC | DK: $8.1k, FD: $7.9k | vs. PIT (Monitor weather)

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA | DK: $7.2k, FD: $9.2k | vs. TEX

Colton Gordon (LHP), HOU | DK: $7k, FD: $7.2k | vs. CLE

Janson Junk (RHP), MIA | DK: $6k, FD: $7.5k | at CIN (Monitor weather)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Boston Red Sox (RHBs Preferred) vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

This is going to be a very popular stack to target today, but there are just so many factors working in the Red Sox’s favor. First off, they head in swinging some very hot bats. Since June 28th (eight games), they’re 1st in MLB in batting average (.330), OPS (.966), wOBA (.409), ISO (.256), and wRC+ (162). They will draw a plus matchup versus a struggling Austin Gomber and a poor Rockies bullpen. The weather at Fenway Park is also primed for hitting with warm and humid conditions mixed with 10 mph winds blowing out toward the Green Monster. Boston leads all teams today with a 5.9 implied run total -- no other team has above a 4.7 IRT.

The RHBs in the Red Sox lineup are going to make the most sense today. While he has only made four starts this season, Gomber has shown some drastically traditional splits:

Gomber vs. RHBs: .352 AVG, .417 wOBA, .268 ISO, 6.75 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 2.25 HR/9 Rate

Gomber vs. LHBs: .091 AVG, .138 wOBA, .000 ISO, 0.00 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 0.00 HR/9 Rate

He’s only had 12 plate appearances worth of action against LHBs, so it’s a negligible sample size. But the numbers against RHBs have been across 75 PAs. Though a couple of them will likely be pinch hit for later in the game, the Red Sox will be rolling out seven RHBs in their lineup today, so there are plenty of favorable “Red Sox RHB stack” combos to choose from.

Favorite BOS Bats: Trevor Story, Romy Gonzalez, Carlos Narvaez

Bargain Bats: Ceddanne Rafaela, Abraham Toro, Nate Eaton

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

Outside of the aforementioned BoSox stack, there really are not many standout stack options to choose from today. So we’ll go to the D-Backs in hopes that they’ll see a rusty version of Yu Darvish, who is making his season debut this evening after missing all of 2025 to date with right elbow inflammation. The D-Backs’ offense has not been as prolific of late, but even though he’s gone 0-for-9 with five Ks in the two games since returning from a wrist injury, having Corbin Carroll back at the top of this lineup is a significant boost. I’ve been more prone to rolling with a D-Backs stack when they’re at home, but they’ve found ample offensive success on the road this season as well, and rank as the No. 4 road offense in MLB (5.10 runs/gm).

Yu Darvish made only one rehab start in Triple-A, and that came way back on May 14th. Instead, he has been ramping up to make his MLB return via simulated games, and threw 64 pitches in his most recent simulated game last Tuesday. So he is certainly going to have some pitch restrictions this evening. That said, the current D-Backs roster has found success against him in previous meetings with a .360 wOBA across 177 plate appearances. The Padres do possess a quality bullpen, but some of their better relievers pitched in yesterday’s closely-contested game versus the Rangers, so it’s possible that they may not roll out some of those top BP arms (like Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon, and closer Robert Suarez) in back-to-back games, especially if the Padres are trailing late. Every hitter in the projected D-Backs’ lineup has a < 7% pOwn%, so this should be a fairly low-owned stack as well.

Favorite ARI Bats: Ketel Marte, Eugenio Suarez, Corbin Carroll

Bargain Bat: Jake McCarthy

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Houston Astros vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

Every hitter in the Astros' confirmed lineup has a < 7% pOwn%. Houston returns home today from a successful six-game road trip in which they went 5-1, including a three-game series sweep of the Dodgers. They scored at least five runs in all six of those games and head into tonight’s game ranking 2nd in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks. While they were great on that recent road trip, the Astros’ offense has been more prolific at home over the course of the entire season (+0.36 runs/gm at home).

Tanner Bibee has had plenty of solid outings this year, but most of those performances have come when he’s pitching at home. His road splits have been noticeably worse. Here’s a quick rundown:

Bibee Home: 42.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 3.59 xFIP, .258 opp wOBA, 1.02 WHIP, 0.64 HR/9 Rate, 22.3% kRate

Bibee Away: 56.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 4.54 xFIP, .356 opp wOBA, 1.39 WHIP, 1.91 HR/9 Rate, 20.1% kRate

Facing an Astros’ offense that is rolling with some real momentum may not be the best spot for Bibee to buck that trend. The Guardians’ bullpen also has not been pitching very well, and they used five relievers in their game yesterday. Over the last two weeks, the Guardians’ bullpen has the 5th worst ERA (5.44), 2nd worst xFIP (4.73), and 9th highest WHIP (1.42).

Favorite HOU Bats: Jose Altuve, Cam Smith, Yainer Diaz

Bargain Bats: Isaac Paredes, Victor Caratini

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

2B Ketel Marte, ARI vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Janson Junk (RHP), MIA

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), PIT

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI vs. Landen Roupp (RHP), SF

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Colton Gordon (LHP), HOU

C Will Smith, LAD vs. Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL

OF George Springer, TOR vs. Sean Burke (RHP), CWS

OF Christian Yelich, MIL vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

3B Rafael Devers, SF vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

2B Jose Altuve, HOU vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

OF Tyler Freeman, COL vs. Richard Fitts (RHP), BOS

1B/2B Romy Gonzalez, BOS vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

OF Kyle Stowers, MIA vs. Brady Singer (RHP), CIN

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

OF Taylor Ward, LAA vs. Jacob deGrom (RHP), TEX

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

SS Trevor Story, BOS vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

1B/OF Spencer Steer, CIN vs. Janson Junk (RHP), MIA

3B Isaac Paredes, HOU vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

OF Mickey Moniak, COL vs. Richard Fitts (RHP), BOS

OF Jesus Sanchez, MIA vs. Brady Singer (RHP), CIN

OF Cam Smith, HOU vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

OF Rob Refsnyder, BOS vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

C Carlos Narvaez, BOS vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

2B Thairo Estrada, COL vs. Richard Fitts (RHP), BOS

OF Ceddanne Rafaela, BOS vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

C Yainer Diaz, HOU vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

1B/3B Abraham Toro, BOS vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

2B Angel Martinez, CLE vs. Colton Gordon (LHP), HOU

3B Nate Eaton, BOS vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!