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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Most of the MLB action will take place this afternoon, so we’ll be left with a six-game main slate for this evening. Pitching is pretty rough on this six-game slate, but that should open the door for plenty of viable hitters/stacks. We will need to keep an eye on one or two games due to potentially troublesome weather, with the MIA at STL game being the most at risk. Let’s jump to it! Best of luck!

Reminder: The MLB trade deadline arrives tomorrow at 6 pm ET. Be mindful of possible late scratches, as players could be traded away at any moment.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣7/30 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• COL at CLE (6:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Low-80s temps with near 10 mph winds blowing IN from center.

• TB at NYY (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): Just a few low coverage isolated storms around the general area. The evening window looks clearer, but there will be a low-end possibility of a late start. Nothing worse than that.

• MIA at STL (7:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): Some heavy storms will be in the STL area this evening. The bulk of those storms will hold north of the ballpark, but it does look likely that they’ll receive some amount of significant rain. So a delay is a strong possibility, and we can’t completely rule out a PPD either. Double-check this forecast closer to first pitch for a better idea of how things should shake out.

• SEA at ATH (10:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Not overly warm, with gametime temps only around 75-80 degrees, but there will be 10 mph winds blowing OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.5k | at LAA

Eovaldi is quite clearly the best SP option on this slate, so the ownership is going to be through the roof. But he may become “necessary chalk” with a big performance tonight. Eovaldi has not pitched enough innings this season to reach “qualified” status, but among SPs with at least 90.0 IP, he is 1st in ERA (1.50), 5th in xFIP (2.78), 2nd in WHIP (0.88), and 12th in kRate (27.4%). He’s been particularly sharp in his four starts this month. Across those 23.2 IP, he has allowed just a single earned run, resulting in a 0.38 ERA, to go alongside a 2.67 xFIP, 0.89 WHIP, and 29.5% kRate.

The Angels are capable of scoring 6+ runs versus anyone just as easily as they could score two runs or fewer. It all evens out to them being a fairly average offense versus RHPs, and they remain one of the more strikeout-prone teams in MLB (23.8% kRate vs. RHPs L30Days, 7th highest). Eovaldi faced this team not too long ago, also on the road, back on July 8th, and he needed just 72 pitches to clear six shutout innings with six Ks. Eovaldi was still building his pitch count back up in that game following a one-month injury hiatus, so he should handle more of a complete workload tonight.

Zack Littell (RHP), TB | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.2k | at NYY

This will be the “against the grain SP play” today. While he isn’t a very flashy pitcher, Littell has been pretty solid from a real-world baseball perspective. Over his last 15 starts (94.1 IP), Littell has put up a very serviceable 3.24 ERA, 4.07 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 16.7% kRate, and 2.4% BB%. The strikeout rate is not impressive, but there is nothing to complain about with that ERA, a near-one WHIP, and an almost non-existent walk rate. Littell also pitched well against this Yankees team back on May 3rd, when he covered seven full innings on just 81 pitches and allowed only two runs on three hits.

The Yankees continue to play without their superstar slugger, Aaron Judge, who is on the IL with a right flexor strain. It’s a small sample size, but in the four games that the Yankees have played recently, all without the services of Judge, the Yankees are hitting .195 with a poor .649 OPS and 85 wRC+ against RHPs while producing an MLB-high 30.4% kRate. So there is a pretty decent chance that Littell can keep the traffic on the bases to a minimum while taking on some increased strikeout upside. That may only mean around five Ks for a low strikeout guy like Littell, but if that is also attached to a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER), then I believe we’d be pretty content with that sort of result out of the veteran righty.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $10k, FD: $10.2k | at ATH

Will Warren (RHP), NYY | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8k | vs. TB

Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL | DK: $6k, FD: $7.3k | at CLE

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

The Dodgers have not been overly dominant of late, but they have secured at least five runs in seven of their last ten games. In that span, they’ve put up a solid .786 OPS, .195 ISO, and 120 wRC+. Some core hitters like Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Teoscar Hernandez appear to be breaking out of some slumps, and, in general, it just feels like they’re due for an offensive explosion. On DraftKings, the one catch here is that you won’t be able to roster Shohei Ohtani as a hitter today, since he is on the mound pitching, but he is eligible as a hitter on FanDuel.

Nick Martinez is a serviceable back-of-the-rotation arm, but he is no stranger to getting blown up, and he simply doesn’t have elite “stuff”. He throws a ton of fastballs, with four-seamer, cutter, and sinker being three of his top four most utilized pitches. The Dodgers have crushed RHP fastballs this season to the tune of a .363 wOBA, .389 xwOBA, .191 ISO, and 90.9 mph average exit velo. The Reds’ bullpen is also putting plenty of traffic on the bases with a 1.55 WHIP and MLB-worst 14.4% BB% over the last two weeks, so we should see some production out of the Dodgers' offense even after Martinez is done for the day.

Favorite LAD Bats: Will Smith, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts (+ Shohei Ohtani on FD)

Bargain Bat: Michael Conforto

Seattle Mariners vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

Maybe today is the day for the Mariners to break out in this series? It was another unproductive offensive performance last night, with Seattle plating just one run on six hits. But, to reiterate, they have been exceptionally good on the road this season, averaging 5.14 runs/gm (#3 road offense), and Sutter Health Park (#2 most hitter-friendly ballpark) is always a great environment for hitters. They’re facing a lefty starter today, and Seattle has posted a healthy .832 OPS, .356 wOBA, .246 ISO, and 129 wRC+ against LHPs on the road this month.

Springs has had plenty of nice starts this season, but he is giving up a high 1.88 HR/9 Rate at home this season and heads in ranking in the bottom 15th percentile in average batted ball distance and bottom 20th percentile in barreled balls allowed over the last month. He could easily run into trouble versus a Mariners team that has several power-hitting bats in the lineup. The A’s bullpen has been very good since the All-Star Break, but something’s gotta give with these Mariners hitters, and, though they’ve been a letdown stack the last few games, there is still ample upside to be had with this offense.

Favorite SEA Bats: Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena

Bargain Bats: Tyler Locklear, Mitch Garver

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Angels vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

Nothing overly analytical here. Eovaldi should be 50+% owned on this small slate, so, by the laws of DFS nature, there is a ton of leverage to be had by stacking against him. Every hitter in the projected Angels lineup has a < 5% pOwn%. You don’t have to reel off a full five-man Angels stack to gain maximum leverage -- even just a small two or three-man stack could do the trick.

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Zach Neto, Taylor Ward

Bargain Bat: Nolan Schanuel

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAD

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

OF Kyle Stowers, MIA vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

OF Cody Bellinger, NYY vs. Zack Littell (RHP), TB

C Will Smith, LAD vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Kolby Allard (LHP), CLE

2B Brandon Lowe, TB vs. Will Warren (RHP), NYY

OF Alec Burleson, STL vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), MIA

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

3B Brendan Donovan, STL vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), MIA

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

OF Angel Martinez, CLE vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Jake Fraley, CIN vs. Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAD

C Mitch Garver, SEA vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

OF Heriberto Hernandez, MIA vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

SS Ezequiel Tovar, COL vs. Kolby Allard (LHP), CLE

OF Michael Conforto, LAD vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

1B Tyler Locklear, SEA vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

OF Jordan Walker, STL vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), MIA

2B/SS Brayan Rocchio, CLE vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!