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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Thursdays are always the wild card day of the week when it comes to whether or not we’ll have a sizable main slate to look forward to or not. Today happens to be an active Thursday, with eight games on the FanDuel evening main slate and seven games on the DraftKings main slate. FanDuel will include the DET at WAS game and will get underway a tad earlier [than the DK slate] at 6:45 ET. Pitching is quite weak on this slate. There is decent talent on the mound this evening, but most of these guys either draw tricky matchups or have limited DFS upside. However, that should give us a solid number of viable hitters and stacks to choose from. Let’s see if we can solve this tricky Thursday slate, shall we? Best of luck!

Also, I hope everyone has a safe & fun July 4^th weekend! Come Monday, I expect everyone to still have ten fingers.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣7/3 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• DET at WAS (6:45 ET, 9.5 O/U): > FanDuel Main Slate Only < A few sparse showers may be around the general area this evening. Not a real concern, but we’ll keep an eye out for some very low-end delay risk here. Warm temps in the mid-to-upper 80s with light ~5 mph winds OUT to right.

• MIL at NYM (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): There is a fairly small but severe batch of storms that could move through New York around first pitch. Those storms might also miss north of the ballpark, but if not, we’ll look out for a late start here. We’ll have a better outlook closer to gametime so be sure to double check this forecast later today before locking any players in, especially pitchers.

• LAA at ATL (7:15 ET, 9.0 O/U): Mid-to-upper 80s with ~5 mph winds OUT to center.

• CLE at CHC (8:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Low-80s temps with light winds IN from right.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Seth Lugo (RHP), KC | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.5k | at SEA

As noted in the intro, pitching is not this slate's strong suit, so we’ll be taking on a bit more risk than usual today when it comes to arm selection. Seth Lugo is riding a nice little hot streak, with a 1.00 ERA, 3.23 xFIP, .143 opp AVG, 0.83 WHIP, and 33.8% kRate over his last three starts (18.0 IP). He’s been generally solid on the season, with a sharp 2.74 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 15 outings, but just happens to be in top form heading into tonight’s game against the Mariners.

There is no beating around the bush. The matchup is not great for Lugo as the Mariners have been a top-10 offense versus RHPs L2Weeks, and have also posted a low 18.9% kRate in that span. That said, they are less dangerous at home in the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park (No. 3 most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season based on Park Factor). Seattle has averaged a so-so 4.13 runs/gm at home this season, versus 5.02 runs/gm on the road. Lugo most recently shut out the Dodgers across 5.2 IP (107 pitches) while racking up 8 Ks. If he can stifle the Dodgers’ lineup, it’s fair to assume that he can find success against another quality offense in Seattle.

Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.7k | vs. NYY

It’s not often we look to go after the Yankees lineup with pitching either, but we’ll take a shot on Bassitt *at home* today. Bassitt has essentially been two different pitchers at home versus on the road. He’s averaging +64.3% more FPPG at home, and here is a quick rundown on his splits this season:

Home: 52.0 IP, 2.60 ERA, 3.09 xFIP, 1.21 WHIP, 0.69 HR/9 Rate, 26.4% kRate

Away: 42.1 IP, 6.38 ERA, 4.26 xFIP, 1.54 WHIP, 1.49 HR/9 Rate, 18.4% kRate

He has certainly been a tad unlucky on the road this season, based on the ERA/xFIP discrepancy, but those are some sizable improvements on the “home” side of things. The Blue Jays have also been extremely pesky against the Yankees this series, and will be looking to grab the four-game series sweep tonight.

The Yankees have, of course, been one of the better offenses in MLB this season, but they have posted some pretty lackluster splits against RHPs on the road over the previous month. In that sample size, which covers 316 plate appearances, they’re hitting for a .237 AVG, .679 OPS, 93 wRC+, and 22.5% kRate. Pretty average/below-average results. So the matchup may not be as worrisome as some would believe, and if we can trust in the “Bassitt at home” narrative, he should put up a quality pitching line tonight (likely at fairly low ownership).

Jose Quintana (LHP), MIL | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.1k | at NYM

Reminder: Monitor weather for this game.

The Mets were the first team to really “get to” the RHP rookie phenom Jacob Misiorowski in his fourth career start yesterday. They chased him off the mound after only 3.2 IP, but not before getting a couple of homers and five ER against him. Veteran lefty Jose Quintana will look to gain some revenge for his young teammate. Quintana pitched for the Mets in the 2023 & 2024 seasons, so he has plenty of experience in this pitcher-friendly ballpark. Across 23 career starts at Citi Field, Quintana has come away with a rock-solid 3.12 ERA. He may not be having the flashiest of seasons, and he’s last among today’s starters with a 15.9% kRate/6.7% SwStr%. But he has pitched to a very serviceable 3.30 ERA over his 15 starts. He’s been particularly effective on the road this season, where he has posted a 1.31 ERA across 34.1 IP and has averaged +48.4% more FPPG. He also has some solid BvP history working for him today -- across 81 PAs versus the current Mets roster, Quintana has held them to a .216 AVG and .260 wOBA while notching a 27.2% kRate.

But perhaps the main draw for Quintana today will be based on the fact that the Mets have struggled massively against LHPs in recent weeks. Against LHPs L30Days (233 PAs), the Mets have only a .203 AVG (ranks 28th), .530 OPS (last), .239 wOBA (last), .074 ISO (last), and 53 wRC+ (last). Their 22.7% kRate in that span has also been right around league average. Pitching is already weak top-to-bottom today, but Quintana makes as much sense as a value option as anyone else taking the mound.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Robbie Ray (LHP), SF | DK: $10k, FD: $10.2k | at ARI

Dustin May (RHP), LAD | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.8k | vs. CWS

Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.6k | at ATL

Cade Horton (RHP), CHC | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.3k | vs. CLE

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CWS

It was a bittersweet night of baseball for Dodgers fans last night. Clayton Kershaw became the 20th pitcher in MLB history to notch 3,000 career strikeouts. Still, just before that 3,000th K, third baseman Max Muncy suffered what looked to be a pretty severe knee injury -- possibly a season-ending injury, pending MRI results. Losing Muncy’s bat hurts, but there is still nothing to suggest that this lineup will struggle against Aaron Civale tonight. The Dodgers do have a couple of key bats in a slump at the moment, but we’ll look to lean on their season-long success in this spot. The Dodgers have easily been the top home offense in baseball this season, averaging 6.18 runs/gm. Against RHPs at home, they’ve put up a .283 AVG (1st), .883 OPS (1st), .379 wOBA (1st), .235 ISO (2nd), and 145 wRC+ (1st).

Aaron Civale heads into start No. 9 on his season with a poor 4.74 ERA, which is backed up by a slate-worst 5.26 xFIP, alongside a 1.50 WHIP and 17.3% kRate. Civale also allowed plenty of flyballs (50% FlyBall%) and, as you may have guessed, the Dodgers are 1st in MLB with an 18.5% HR/FB Rate versus RHPs at home. The White Sox bullpen has been pitching surprisingly well lately, having posted a 2.64 ERA L2Weeks (3rd best). But if L.A. does enough damage against Civale, what the CWS bullpen does may not matter all too much.

Favorite LAD Bats: Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith, Andy Pages

Bargain Bats: Hyeseong Kim, Tommy Edman

Chicago Cubs vs. Joey Cantillo (LHP) + Guardians Bullpen

Interesting spot here as Cleveland’s initially scheduled starter today, Luis Ortiz, was placed on leave and is being investigated after two of his pitches in June had “unusual gambling action on them.” Curious to see what comes of this, but the Guardians will turn to LHP Joey Cantillo to start today. Cantillo made eight starts in his MLB debut season last year, but all 21 of his appearances this season have come out of the bullpen. Cantillo has put up solid numbers as a reliever this year (3.81 ERA, 3.28 xFIP, .229 opp AVG, 29.3% kRate), but walks have been an issue (11.4% BB%) as have home runs (1.59 HR/9 Rate). He most recently threw 42 pitches across 3.0 IP on May 26th, so it’s hard to imagine he’ll cover more than three, maybe four, innings this evening. That will leave a struggling Guardians’ bullpen responsible for the remaining innings. Over the last two weeks, this bullpen has posted the 4th worst ERA (6.68), 2nd worst xFIP (4.88), 2nd highest opponent average (.299), and 2nd highest WHIP (2.84).

The Cubs’ offense has not been overly effective against LHPs lately, but they have been the No. 1 offense against RHPs L2Weeks based on their .920 OPS (1st), .395 wOBA (1st), and 157 wRC+ (1st). We’ll have to assume that they’ll see a fair bit of right-handed pitching today in this impromptu bullpen game, so those recent stellar results against RHPs should come into play at some point. There is more unpredictability with this stack suggestion, but it could work out nicely. No hitter in the projected Cubs’ lineup has above a 9% pOwn%, so this should be a fairly low-owned stack as well.

Favorite CHC Bats: Kyle Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, Michael Busch

Bargain Bats: Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson

FanDuel Main Slate Only Stack

Detroit Tigers vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

Favorite DET Bats: Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Gleyber Torres

Bargain Bats: Zach McKinstry, Colt Keith

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Milwaukee Brewers vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

Every hitter in the projected Brewers lineup has a < 8% pOwn%. The Brewers seemed to use up most of their offense in the early game of the doubleheader yesterday, so they didn’t exactly come through in a big way as the “low-owned stack that just might work out” in yesterday’s newsletter. But I’ll take another shot on ‘em in hopes that the “road Brewers” show up. As noted yesterday, the Brewers have been the No. 1 road offense in MLB, averaging 5.65 runs/gm -- a major bump up from their home average of 3.89 runs/gm. It’s a rather small sample size of just 93 plate appearances, but the Brewers have crushed lefty pitching on the road over the last month to the tune of a .365 AVG, 1.018 OPS, .435 wOBA, .247 ISO, and 179 wRC+.

David Peterson is having a nice season (3.30 ERA, 3.56 xFIP, 1.28 WHIP, 56.1% GroundBall%). However, he has not been great over his last three starts, where he has come away with a 7.47 ERA, .286 opp AVG, and 1.72 WHIP. Those three games were all on the road, and he tends to pitch better at home (+25.6% more FPPG). There are some “ifs” involved, but if Peterson’s slump extends to a fourth game and if the Brewers continue their hot hitting on the road versus southpaw pitching, then we could see some Milwaukee bats post some nice results this evening. The Mets’ bullpen also heads into tonight’s game with a 7.01 ERA L2Weeks and they used a ton of relievers across yesterday’s doubleheader, so they certainly aren’t in the best position to cover the final innings once Peterson’s day is done.

Favorite MIL Bats: Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich, Brice Turang

Bargain Bats: Isaac Collins, Joey Ortiz, Caleb Durbin

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CWS

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC

OF Kyle Tucker, CHC vs. Joey Cantillo (LHP), CLE

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), MIL

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Cade Horton (RHP), CHC

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Logan Evans (RHP), SEA

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

3B Eugenio Suarez, ARI vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), SF

1B Matt Olson, ATL vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

OF George Springer, TOR vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

OF Mike Yastrzemski, SF vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

FanDuel Main Slate Only

OF James Wood, WAS vs. Dietrich Enns (RHP), DET

OF Riley Greene, DET vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Jo Adell, LAA vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

3B Austin Riley, ATL vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

SS Dansby Swanson, CHC vs. Joey Cantillo (LHP), CLE

3B/OF Addison Barger, TOR vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC vs. Joey Cantillo (LHP), CLE

SS Willy Adames, SF vs. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP), ARI

C Sean Murphy, ATL vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

OF Isaac Collins, MIL vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

3B Caleb Durbin, MIL vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

C Salvador Perez, KC vs. Logan Evans (RHP), SEA

3B Luis Rengifo, LAA vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

SS Joey Ortiz, MIL vs. David Peterson (LHP), NYM

C Kyle Teel, CWS vs. Dustin May (RHP), LAD

OF Andrew Benintendi, CWS vs. Dustin May (RHP), LAD

FanDuel Main Slate Only

SS/3B/2B/OF Zach McKinstry, DET vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

1B/2B Colt Keith, DET vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!