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- Top MLB DFS Plays & Props 7/29 | Breaking Down a Loaded Tuesday Twelve-Gamer! ⚾
Top MLB DFS Plays & Props 7/29 | Breaking Down a Loaded Tuesday Twelve-Gamer! ⚾
Tuesday, July 29th ⚾️ DFS Plays & Props for Today's MLB Action
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Main Slate Rundown 🏟
Another 12-game main slate hits the runway this evening! Pitching may not be quite as strong as yesterday, but there are still plenty of quality arms to choose from. Many of the outdoor games today will be played in temperatures of 90 degrees or higher, so baseballs should be flying out all over the place. Barring a surprise in a random forecast, zero ballparks will be affected by rainy weather, which is always a welcome aspect for any slate! Let’s dive into today’s action, shall we? Best of luck!
Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:


💣7/29 Dinger Report💣

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️
Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.
To save some repetitiveness, the following games will at minimum start out with 90-degree temps but won’t have any wind conditions worth mentioning:
TB at NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U)
LAD at CIN (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U)
ATL at KC (7:40 ET, 9.5 O/U)
PHI at CWS (7:40 ET, 9.0 O/U)
MIA at STL (7:45 ET, 7.5 O/U)
SEA at ATH (10:05 ET, 10.5 O/U): Mid-80s for most of the night *with* 10 mph winds OUT to left.
Pitchers to Consider ⚾
Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.2k | at CIN
Glasnow was on the shelf with a shoulder injury for more than two months but, in the three starts (18.0 IP) that he’s made since returning from the IL, all he has done is post a 1.00 ERA, 2.36 xFIP, .143 opp AVG, 0.78 WHIP, and 33.8% kRate while forcing a 52.0% GroundBall%. So, to state the obvious, it would seem as if the shoulder injury is not a lingering issue. Glasnow has a long injury history, so the Dodgers tend to exercise some caution with his workload, but they did allow him to reach a season-high 106 pitches in his most recent outing against the Twins six days ago. The Dodgers have a very banged-up pitching staff, both in the rotation and the bullpen, so they may be willing to extend the leash on Glasnow for the time being in an effort to get as many innings out of him as they can. I’m not overly confident that he’ll throw 100+ pitches again today, but it’s at least a possibility.
I wouldn’t label this an outstanding matchup for Glasnow, but it’s pretty decent. The Reds are bottom-10 in OPS and wRC+ against RHPs this month and have also posted the 2nd lowest ISO and 5th highest GroundBall% in that stretch. Outside of TJ Friedl and Noelvi Marte, every other Reds hitter in the projected lineup has at least a 20% kRate versus RHPs this season, with Matt McLain (25.3% kRate), Austin Hays (25.4% kRate), and Tyler Stephenson (39.8% kRate) being the primary strikeout candidates. Overall, Glasnow makes as much sense as any pitcher on this slate and should be in line for a nice outing this evening.
Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA | DK: $8k, FD: $9.1k | vs. TEX
July hasn’t been incredibly kind to Kikuchi, but we’ve seen him tap into a high ceiling this season, and this may be a spot where he can crack the optimal lineup with a big DFS score. He will be on his home mound this evening, where he has posted a 2.26 ERA this season (versus 4.27 ERA on the road) alongside a solid 1.21 WHIP (versus a 1.61 WHIP on the road). He has also averaged +29.0% more FPPG at home. These two teams met earlier this month, also in LA, and Kikuchi didn’t exactly have a stellar performance (5.0 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 ER, 4 K), but I’d bank on him coming away with a much better outing the second go-round.
The Rangers have been one of the better offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching in recent weeks, but that success has not translated versus lefty pitchers. Across 263 plate appearances versus LHPs this month, Texas has hit for a paltry .202 AVG with a .630 OPS, 75 wRC+, and a lofty 28.9% kRate. Against Kikuchi’s two primary pitches -- the slider and four-seamer, which account for over 70% of his pitches -- the Rangers rank 24th in wOBA and have posted a 26.0% kRate. Kikuchi has been giving up a lot of hard contact and barreled balls lately, but if he can keep those in check, he’s due for a stout performance.

Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.4k | at SF
If you’re going for a cheap SP, Bailey Falter may be able to post up a surprisingly strong performance, like the one he had in his most recent outing against Detroit (7.0 IP, 4 H, 0 BB, 1 ER, 8 K -- 31.35 DKFP/52 FDFP). His statcast data over the last month has been awful, but we’ll primarily be hoping that he can build off of that last start and take advantage of a Giants offense that is struggling against lefty pitching. Falter had quite a few nice outings over the first half, along with an equal amount of bad performances, so it does feel like a coin flip here. But it may be worth the gamble if you’re looking to fit in bigger bats and/or a high-end SP1 on DraftKings.
Against LHPs this month (232 PAs), the Giants have mustered only a .232 AVG, .623 OPS, and 74 wRC+ to go along with an MLB-high 29.7% kRate. Falter isn’t a big strikeout guy (15.8% kRate this season), but this matchup could buoy that number and, as touched on, he did hit eight Ks in his last start. With some hot temps in so many ballparks today, this will also be one of the more pitcher-friendly environments with temps only around 60 degrees in San Fran this evening -- Oracle Park has rated as the #7 most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season. It’s tough to be excited about this play, but Falter makes just enough sense to take a shot on.
Other Pitchers to Consider
Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.8k | at CWS
Seth Lugo (RHP), KC | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.3k | vs. ATL
Lucas Giolito (RHP), BOS | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.5k | at MIN
Patrick Corbin (LHP), TEX | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.2k | at LAA
Team Stacks to Target 🎯
Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.
Kansas City Royals vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), ATL
With a totally decimated starting rotation and playoffs well out of the realm of possibilities, the Braves have resorted to simply acquiring warm bodies to trot out on the mound at this point. Erick Fedde is one of those recent garbage bin acquisitions, and he pretty easily sets up as one of the worst SPs on this slate. He has been particularly awful over his last handful of starts -- dating back to June 25th, he has put up a 13.25 ERA, 6.75 xFIP, .407 opp AVG, .524 opp wOBA, 2.49 WHIP, and 4.10 HR/9 Rate. In that same span, his strikeout rate (8.6%) has been lower than his walk rate (11.8%). You will struggle to find a pitcher who has had a worse five-game stretch than Fedde has had heading into tonight.
It’s been like pulling teeth for this Royals offense to get it in gear this season. They’ve posted an exact league average 100 wRC+ versus RHPs this month, which is an improvement over where they’ve been for most of the year. More notably, they have shown plenty of pop with an excellent .197 ISO (ranks 3rd in MLB) against RHPs in that same span. They should have no major issues getting some XBHs and runs rolling against a struggling Fedde, and the Braves’ bullpen also owns an MLB-worst 8.12 ERA since the All-Star Break.
Favorite KC Bats: Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Maikel Garcia
Bargain Bat: Vinnie Pasquantino

Seattle Mariners vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH
The under hit comfortably in this series opener yesterday, despite very favorable hitting conditions in this minor league ballpark. We’ll go back for seconds with the Mariners and see if we can receive more production than yesterday. Seattle has ranked as the #3 road offense in baseball, averaging 5.22 runs/gm. Against RHPs on the road this month, they’re rocking a stout .818 OPS, .352 wOBA, .246 ISO, and 126 wRC+. The recent acquisition of first baseman Josh Naylor also adds a bit more length to this lineup.
Luis Severino is coming off a trio of solid outings, but he’s back at home where he has shown some notably worse splits this season. Across 66.0 IP at home, Severino has put up a 6.68 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, .302 opp AVG, and .360 opp wOBA. Compare those figures to his results on the road: 3.03 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, .212 opp AVG, and .271 opp wOBA. He really must not be a fan of Sutter Health Ballpark, the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark in MLB. More excellent hitting weather in Sacramento this evening (warm with 10 mph winds blowing out to left), and I’d call it a safe bet that the Mariners will find more success here than they did yesterday when they managed only three runs on nine hits.
Favorite SEA Bats: Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena
Bargain Bats: Jorge Polanco, Ben Williamson
Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔
Chicago White Sox vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI
Eight of nine hitters in the projected White Sox lineup have a < 7% pOwn%. The White Sox have been a legitimately dangerous team post-All-Star Break, especially versus lefties. Across 127 PAs versus LHPs since the break, Chicago ranks 1st with each of the following metrics: .366 AVG, 1.061 OPS, .450 wOBA, .309 ISO, and 194 wRC+. They’re also only striking out at a 15% clip in that span. Pretty wild stuff. I doubt their hot streak will last very long, but perhaps it will continue for at least one more game.
Luzardo is a quality pitcher, but he has been in some rough form over his last ten starts, where he has come away with an 8.04 ERA, 1.79 WHIP, .309 opp AVG, and .381 opp wOBA. He is also expected to catch plenty of ownership today, so there is some additional leverage to be had by stacking CWS bats. And, no matter who you stack up on this offense, it’s going to be an affordable group of players.
Favorite CWS Bats: Luis Robert Jr., Chase Meidroth, Miguel Vargas
Bargain Bats: Edgar Quero, Austin Slater, Colson Montgomery
One-Off Bats ☝️
A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.
1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Nick Lodolo (LHP), CIN
OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL vs. Seth Lugo (RHP), KC
C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH
OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS
OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), BOS
SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Tyler Glasnow (RHP), LAD
1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Logan Evans (RHP), SEA
OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), MIL
OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Ryan Bergert (RHP), SD
SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), ATL
OF Cody Bellinger, NYY vs. Joe Boyle (RHP), TB
OF Oneil Cruz, PIT vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), SF
3B Manny Machado, SD vs. Sean Manaea (LHP), NYM
OF James Wood, WAS vs. Jason Alexander (RHP), HOU
OF Kyle Stowers, MIA vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL
3B Alex Bregman, BOS vs. TBD, MIN
SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA
2B/OF Jose Altuve, HOU vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), WAS
OF Taylor Ward, LAA vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TEX
1B/3B Yandy Diaz, TB vs. Max Fried (LHP), NYY
SS Willy Adames, SF vs. Bailey Falter (LHP), PIT
OF Jackson Chourio, MIL vs. Colin Rea (RHP), CHC
1B Willson Contreras, STL vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA

Bargain Bats 💸
Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.
OF Alec Burleson, STL vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA
1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), ATL
C JT Realmuto, PHI vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS
2B Luis Garcia Jr., WAS vs. Jason Alexander (RHP), HOU
OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI
3B Royce Lewis, MIN vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), BOS
OF Isaac Collins, MIL vs. Colin Rea (RHP), CHC
OF Heriberto Hernandez, MIA vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL
2B/SS Chase Meidroth, CWS vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI
1B Josh Bell, WAS vs. Jason Alexander (RHP), HOU
OF Tommy Pham, PIT vs. Justin Verlander (RHP), SF
1B Andrew Vaughn, MIL vs. Colin Rea (RHP), CHC
1B Miguel Vargas, CWS vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI
3B Ronny Mauricio, NYM vs. Ryan Bergert (RHP), SD
OF Jordan Walker, STL vs. Sandy Alcantara (RHP), MIA
OF Taylor Trammell, HOU vs. Michael Soroka (RHP), WAS
C Edgar Quero, CWS vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣
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6:48 PM • Jul 29, 2025
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Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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