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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

The work week starts rolling in a big way with a hefty 12-game Monday main slate on tap! This slate features a great selection of arms as well as plenty of appealing stack-worthy offenses. And the only real spot where we need to worry about the weather is in the BOS at MIN game. All in all, this is looking like a fun night of MLB action, so let’s jump right into it. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣7/28 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• LAD at CIN (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): A few spotty showers around the general area. If one makes it over the ballpark, we could see a delay, but that isn’t a particularly likely possibility. Temps in the mid-to-upper 80s with a very light breeze OUT to center.

• ATL at KC (7:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): Low-90s temps for much of the evening with ~5 mph winds OUT to left.

• BOS at MIN (7:40 ET, 9.5 O/U): A nasty storm system is set to move into the MIN area later tonight, presumably after this game has ended. Barring any forecast changes, there shouldn’t be any issues with the actual game, but it’s worth double-checking closer to first pitch to be sure.

• SEA at ATH (10:05 ET, 10.0 O/U): Mid-80s temps to start with 10 mph winds blowing OUT to left all evening. So, once again, there are some nice hitting conditions at this minor league ballpark.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jacob deGrom, TEX | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.6k | at LAA

We’re maybe not getting “peak deGrom” anymore, but he has still put together a dominant 2025 campaign in his age-37 season. His 2.28 ERA is the 5th best among all qualified MLB starters, and his 121 Pitching+ rating is second in baseball, behind only Phillies’ ace Zack Wheeler. deGrom continues to pump gas on the mound with a 97.5 mph average fastball velo while also ranking 100th percentile in breaking ball run value. Perhaps it’s just a bit of statistical noise, but deGrom has also posted a considerably higher strikeout rate on the road (31.7%) than at home (23.1%), and he is indeed on the road today.

The Angels’ lineup can be pesky, but, on average, they’re exactly that -- average. Against RHPs this month, they’re 13th with a .737 OPS, 14th with a 106 wRC+, and 20th with a .152 ISO. They’re also no strangers to strikeouts, and against Jacob deGrom’s primary pitch mix (four-seamer, slider, changeup), the Angels own the 2nd highest kRate (27.0%) and 2nd highest Whiff% (28.8%). deGrom has been giving up some homers -- five in his last four starts -- but they’re typically solo shots, which doesn’t kill a pitcher’s outing when they’re as good as deGrom has been. Given his long injury history, the Rangers tend to limit deGrom to around 90 pitches, but that has been enough for him to cover at least six innings in 10 of his last 12 starts. Expect another quality start that should include plenty of strikeouts from the deGrominator tonight.

Chase Burns (RHP), CIN | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.1k | vs. LAD

We’re getting a little bold here, just because it’s a young pitcher going up against the star-studded Dodgers’ lineup. But there is reason for optimism here, which we’ll dive into. First off, Burns has received some horrible BABIP luck through his first five big league starts. Opponents have hit for a .400 BABIP against him, which has helped to balloon his ERA up to 6.65. However, his 2.89 xFIP is nearly four runs lower than his ERA, and more indicative of both his skill and where his ERA *should* be. His stuff has been elite, which has helped lead to a massive 35.0% kRate. It’s a small sample size, but this will also be his third big league start at home. Across two previous home starts (11.0 IP), Burns has acquired a 2.26 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP, and 39.1% kRate.

Getting into the matchup, the Dodgers have not really been an offense for right-handed pitchers to fear as of late. Against RHPs this month (547 PAs), here are the Dodgers’ primary offensive numbers (and MLB ranks): .223 AVG (27th), .665 OPS (28th), .292 wOBA (28th), .143 ISO (23rd), 87 wRC+ (28th), and 23.8% kRate (8th highest). So, unless they all of a sudden turn things around today, it’s truly not a scary matchup at the moment. I will point out that the Dodgers have crushed RHP four-seamers this season (.368 wOBA, .195 ISO) and Burns throws a lot of 4S fastballs (56.9% usage). Even with the Dodgers’ current struggles, it’s going to be difficult for Burns to pitch a super clean game. But you can’t dispute the sort of strikeout upside he brings to the table and, at his current DFS price points, he’s worth a look as a contrarian SP option today.

Carson Whisenhunt (LHP), SF | DK: $7k, FD: $5.5k | vs. PIT

Here I go again, rolling the dice on a fella making his big league debut! With Hayden Birdsong being optioned to AAA and Landen Roupp hitting the IL with an elbow injury, the Giants are turning to their top-rated pitching prospect, LHP Carson Whisenhunt, to fill in the rotation. The quick scouting report on Whisenhunt is that he possesses one of the nastiest changeups in the minors that dives off the table and generates plenty of whiffs. His fastball only sits in the low 90s, but plays up thanks to his extension and pitch sequencing. His curveball is still a work in progress, but it serves as a viable third pitch in his arsenal. In 2024, Whisenhunt posted a stout 28.4% kRate in Triple-A, but otherwise turned in a lackluster 5.42 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, and 11.3% BB%. This year, his strikeout rate has gone down to 21.0%, but he has also shaved a run off of his ERA (4.42), his WHIP is down to a respectable 1.31, and he has nearly cut his walk rate in half (6.8% BB%). So, it seems as though he has sacrificed some of his velocity and strikeout-ability in exchange for more finesse and plate control, which has allowed him to put less traffic on the bases. Also, keep in mind that Whisenhunt has been pitching in the Pacific Coast League, which tends to have a ton of offense at the Triple-A level, so the mid-4 ERA that he has posted this season is pretty solid by PCL standards.

Whisenhunt draws about as friendly a matchup as a guy could ask for when making his MLB debut. First off, he’ll be in front of the home crowd in San Francisco at a quality pitcher’s park (Oracle Park: #7 most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season). Second, the Pittsburgh Pirates have found minimal success against lefty pitching… really, all season, but especially lately. On the season against LHPs, Pittsburgh owns a .217 AVG, .608 OPS, 68 wRC+, and 26.8% kRate -- making them easily a bottom-three offense versus lefties. Against LHPs this month, those numbers have dipped to a .176 AVG, .495 OPS, 40 wRC+, and 27.5% kRate. Ugly stuff. You can never put too much confidence in a pitcher making his MLB debut, but the ingredients are there for Whisenhunt to have a successful debut.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $10.7k, FD: $10.8k | vs. WAS

Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.9k | at CWS

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.1k | at CIN

Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA | DK: $8k, FD: $8.6k | at STL

Frankie Montas (RHP), NYM | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.8k | at SD

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

The Phillies have been living closer to their offensive expectations recently and have been among the best offenses versus RHPs since the All-Star Break. In that time against RHPs (245 PAs), the Phillies have posted a .272 AVG (5th), .893 OPS (1st), .376 wOBA (2nd), .281 ISO (1st), and 141 wRC+ (2nd).

Davis Martin isn’t a bad SP, and has pitched to a respectable 3.89 ERA across 14 starts this season. But his expected ERA is at 5.36, so he has benefited from some good fortune this season. Martin’s primary pitch mix of four-seamer (30.8% USG%), cutter (25.4% USG%), and changeup (23.1% USG%) could also get him in trouble here. Against that pitch mix this season, the Phillies are 1st in AVG (.274), 4th in wOBA (.352), 5th in HardHit% (47.0%), and 3rd in average exit velocity (91.3 mph). Following Martin will be a White Sox bullpen that has honestly been pretty decent lately (3.28 ERA L30Days). However, this bullpen has also thrown 180 pitches over the last two days, so several of those relievers could be out of commission today.

Favorite PHI Bats: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner

Bargain Bat: JT Realmuto

Texas Rangers vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

The Rangers are another offense that has been surging offensively against righty pitching. Against RHPs this month, Texas is 2nd in AVG (.279), 3rd in OPS (.819), 2nd in wOBA (.355), and 2nd in wRC+ (130). They’re also hitting .321 with a 152 wRC+ in that stretch when they have runners in scoring position, so they’ve done a great job at capitalizing on scoring opportunities while not being overly reliant on the home run ball.

Over his last eight starts dating back to June 1st, Jack Kochanowicz has turned in an awful 7.75 ERA, 4.58 xFIP, 1.81 WHIP, .405 opp wOBA, 1.90 HR/9 Rate, and 16.2% kRate. His performance during that span was bad enough to get him demoted to Triple-A Salt Lake back on July 11th, but he has returned to the big club and is not in a particularly strong spot to find success. Kochanowicz has also had some issues pitching at home this season, where he owns a 6.65 ERA and averages 38.9% less FPPG. The Angels’ bullpen has also been a bottom-five relief group this season and has allowed an MLB-high 1.48 HR/9 Rate.

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien

Bargain Bats: Josh Smith, Evan Carter

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. JP Sears (LHP), ATH

Every hitter in the projected Mariners lineup has a ≤ 11% pOwn%. That’s fairly surprising considering they lead the slate with a 5.4 implied run total.  I rarely hate the idea of targeting the Mariners when they’re on the road (5.26 runs/gm away vs. 3.85 runs/gm at home), and that especially holds true when they’re up against a lefty starter. The Mariners own an MLB-best .805 OPS and 125 wRC+ against LHPs on the road this season and, in those same splits, they are 2nd with a 16.0% HR/FB Rate.

I make that last point because, as well as JP Sears has pitched lately, he has been giving up a huuuuge 60.6% FlyBall% over the last month. That’s not a great recipe versus this power-hitting Mariners lineup that converts plenty of flyballs into homers. And you also have to consider the ballpark -- Sutter Health Park, which, as I’m sure you know, is a minor league stadium, has ranked as the #2 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season. Temps will be warm out in Sacramento this evening, and there will be some 10 mph winds blowing out to left field.  The A’s also have a not-so-great bullpen that owns the 2nd worst ERA (5.38) and the worst WHIP (1.50) this season.

Favorite SEA Bats: Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena

Bargain Bat: Mitch Garver

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Chase Burns (RHP), CIN

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL vs. Rich Hill (LHP), KC

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. JP Sears (LHP), ATH

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Richard Fitts (RHP), BOS

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), SD

OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC vs. Jacob Misiorowski (RHP), MIL

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL

3B Manny Machado, SD vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), NYM

OF Oneil Cruz, PIT vs. Carson Whisenhunt (LHP), SF

OF Kyle Stowers, MIA vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

SS CJ Abrams, WAS vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. Jacob deGrom (RHP), TEX

OF Chandler Simpson, TB vs. Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY

2B/OF Jose Altuve, HOU vs. Brad Lord (RHP), WAS

OF Jarren Duran, BOS vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

SS Willy Adames, SF vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

1B Willson Contreras, STL vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), CHC

OF Giancarlo Stanton, NYY vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Jurickson Profar, ATL vs. Rich Hill (LHP), KC

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

1B/C Salvador Perez, KC vs. Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL

OF Roman Anthony, BOS vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

3B Matt Chapman, SF vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

C Sean Murphy, ATL vs. Rich Hill (LHP), KC

1B Luis Arraez, SD vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), NYM

C JT Realmuto, PHI vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

3B Royce Lewis, MIN vs. Richard Fitts (RHP), BOS

1B/3B Josh Smith, TEX vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

C Mitch Garver, SEA vs. JP Sears (LHP), ATH

OF Heriberto Hernandez, MIA vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

OF Tommy Pham, PIT vs. Carson Whisenhunt (LHP), SF

OF Taylor Trammell, HOU vs. Brad Lord (RHP), WAS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!