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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Following back-to-back small slates, we will get back to a big boy slate with a hefty 13-gamer lined up on this fine Friday evening! As is often the case with slates of this magnitude, there will be a quality selection of pitchers and hitters/stacks to choose from. So this will be a fun one to build for, and time will tell, but I’m thinking that ownership is going to be very spread out tonight. The main pesky aspect of this slate will be the number of games where rain could come into play. Currently, only one game (CLE at KC) has notable PPD potential; however, there are approximately seven or eight games where a delay of some sort is possible. Worrying about weather in so many spots is an annoyance, but this is looking like it’ll be a fun slate nonetheless! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣7/25 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• COL at BAL (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Scattered showers/storms in the general area. If one makes its way over the ballpark, it could spark a delay… but not real PPD concerns (this will be a common theme today). 90 degrees to start with light winds OUT to right.

• PHI at NYY (7:05 ET, 10.0 O/U): Rain should be clear, or clearing, around the scheduled first pitch, so a late start is on the table, but nothing worse than that. Mid-80s temps with 5-10 mph winds OUT to right.

• TOR at DET (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): Low-coverage showers in the general area, so a delay is possible. Low-80s temps with ~5 mph winds OUT to right.

• LAD at BOS (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Same deal as PHI/NYY. Rain/storms clearing around first pitch, so a late start may be needed, but no real PPD concern.

• TB at CIN (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Scattered showers/storms should hold north of the ballpark, but if one strays a little further south, there might be a need for a delay. Toasty temps around 85-90 degrees but no notable wind conditions.

• SD at STL (7:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): Scattered showers/storms around. Delay is possible. Around 90 degrees for much of the evening.

• CHC at CWS (7:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): Rain could still be around early, so a late start may be needed.

• CLE at KC (8:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): A slow-moving line of storms in the area. Currently, it appears as if it’ll miss north of the ballpark, but if it doesn’t, there is a real chance of a delay with some PPD risk as well. Out of all of these games, this is probably the one worth watching the closest.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10.1k | vs. ATL

Eovaldi missed a month of action between May 27th and June 27th. Upon his June return versus the Mariners, it looked as if he had some rust that needed to be shaken off as he gave up three runs on five hits and two walks across three innings. But he has been nails in the three starts since then -- 18.2 IP, 0.48 ERA, 2.42 xFIP, 0.75 WHIP, and 28.4% kRate. Among starting pitchers with at least 90.0 IP this season, Eovaldi owns *the* lowest ERA (1.58), 5th lowest xFIP (2.73), 3rd lowest SIERA (2.89), 2nd lowest WHIP (0.85), 4th lowest Walk Rate (4.0%), and 4th lowest HR/9 Rate (0.49). His 27.0% kRate may not be among the league’s best of the best, but that’s certainly an excellent mark and ranks 14th among all SPs (min. 90 IP). So, yeah, Eovaldi has been pretty damn good in his age-35 season, and his statcast data from the last month is also filled with green (good) figures top-to-bottom.

The Braves have been among the most disappointing teams this season. The offense still has the talent and ability to break through with a big game, but those performances have been few and far between. They also tend to struggle more often on the road. Since June 1st against RHPs on the road (601 PAs), Atlanta is hitting just .220 with a .646 OPS, 80 wRC+, and 24.6% kRate -- all well below average numbers. If Eovaldi can keep Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, and Drake Baldwin in check, the rest of the lineup will probably fall like dominoes.

Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL | DK: $8k, FD: $9k | vs. COL

The Orioles’ pitching staff has had its fair share of issues this year, with injuries playing a significant part, but Dean Kremer is turning in a really solid season for himself. Spanning his last ten starts (59.2 IP), Kremer has recorded a quality 2.72 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, and 22.7% kRate. He has also been more reliable at home this season, where he owns a 2.00 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, compared to a 5.37 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road.

Attacking the “road Rockies” is nothing new, and they’ll be even weaker than usual after trading away 3B Ryan McMahon to the Yankees earlier this afternoon. McMahon likely won’t be the first Colorado bat that gets traded ahead of next Thursday’s deadline, but, for now, that is one hitter with some real pop that opposing pitchers will not have to worry about. As you would imagine, the Rockies’ offense has been significantly worse on the road away from the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. They’re averaging just 2.94 runs/gm away, versus 4.27 runs/gm at home. Against RHPs on the road this season, they’re hitting for a .207 AVG, .607 OPS, and 68 wRC+ with a mammoth 28.8% kRate. The Orioles (-208 ML) are the heaviest favorites on this slate, so, all things considered, we can expect another quality outing from Kremer this evening with a great shot at snagging the win bonus. Anything short of a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) with at least five or six Ks would be a surprise.

Zebby Matthews (RHP), MIN | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.8k | vs. WAS

There are honestly a handful of quality arms worth considering out of the lower salary range today, but we’ll give Zebby Matthews the spotlight. A shoulder injury has knocked him out for much of the season and has held him to only five big league starts, but this will be his third start since returning from the injury, so we’ll see if he ramps up from the 77 pitch count that he threw in each of his last two outings. Over those five starts in 2025, Matthews has acquired an ugly 6.26 ERA. However, some very bad BABIP (.410) luck has played a major factor in inflating that ERA. His 3.19 xFIP is an excellent mark -- third best on the slate behind only Nathan Eovaldi and Logan Webb -- and is a much better indicator of where his ERA likely should be. Matthews has been elite from a strikeout standpoint with a 29.8% kRate and 13.8% SwStr%. This will also be just his second home start this season, which is worth noting. He only has 22.1 IP at home in his young MLB career, but, in that time, he has put up a monster 32.7% kRate and 2.90 xFIP.

The Nats don’t necessarily have a bad lineup. It’s just young and inconsistent. They’re bottom 10 in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against RHPs this month, and their strikeout rate has crept up to 25.1% over the last two weeks. I also wouldn’t sweat the fact that the Nats will, in all likelihood, have six lefty bats in the lineup today. Matthews has posted a minuscule 2.12 xFIP and a huge 36.2% kRate against LHBs this season, compared to a 4.07 xFIP and 24.6% kRate versus RHPs. The Twins (-158 ML) are also the 3rd heaviest favorites on this slate, so, as long as he covers at least five innings, Matthews should have a solid chance to earn the win.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.4k | at LAA

Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC | DK: $9.9k, FD: $9.7k | at CWS

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.2k | vs. NYM

Michael Wacha (RHP), KC | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.7k | vs. CLE

Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.3k | vs. SEA

Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7k | at BAL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

The Rays have been a top-10 offense since returning from the All-Star Break, based on their 122 wRC+, and they’ll draw an appealing matchup in a favorable hitter’s park today. Nick Martinez is a very inconsistent and subpar starter. His inconsistency relegated him to the bullpen at one point this season, and, since June 1st, he is sporting a lackluster 6.31 ERA, 4.77 xFIP, .351 opp wOBA, and 1.80 HR/9 Rate next to a low 16.2% kRate. The Reds’ bullpen may be well-rested (hasn’t pitched the last two days), but they do own the 3rd worst xFIP (4.57) over the last month, so it’s a bullpen that can be taken advantage of. The runs have been down in Great American Ballpark this season, but it has still ranked as the #6 home run ballpark this season, and some ~90 degree temps in Cincy this evening will allow well-struck flyballs to travel a little further.

Favorite TB Bats: Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz, Chandler Simpson

Bargain Bat: Danny Jansen

New York Yankees vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

After a pretty underwhelming start to the 2025 season, Taijuan Walker was relegated to a bullpen role back in early June, but has made his last two appearances as a starter. On paper, Walker’s 3.75 ERA isn’t horrible, but his stuff hasn’t been great (92 Stuff+ rating), and his 4.37 xFIP tells us that he has been a bit lucky this season. He also owns some very rough BvP history in this matchup. In 94 PAs versus the current Yankees’ roster, Walker has allowed a huge .345 AVG and .450 wOBA.

The Yankees are sporting an .818 OPS, .349 wOBA, .230 ISO, and 126 wRC+ against RHPs this month, which are all top-five numbers. They’ve been at their best at home this season, where they’re averaging 5.31 runs/gm. With warm temps and winds blowing out to the short porch in right field, plenty of offense is expected in this game, and it’s the only matchup on the slate with a double-digit over/under. Against Taijuan Walker’s primary pitch mix (cutter, splitter, sinker), the Yankees are 2nd in wOBA (.364), 1st in ISO (.216), and 1st in HardHit% (48.3%). So, we should get some nice production out of this lineup tonight.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Bargain Bat: Giancarlo Stanton

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Minnesota Twins vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

Every hitter in the projected Twins’ lineup has a < 7% pOwn%. MacKenzie Gore is a very talented southpaw pitcher, but he has hit a rough patch recently. He has posted a 6.04 ERA, 5.04 xFIP, and 1.70 WHIP over his previous five starts. During that stretch, his kRate has dipped dramatically to just 17.9% and the walk rate has also ballooned to 12.8%. Gore is also backed by a Nats bullpen that owns the worst ERA (5.74) in MLB this season, and it’s a group that also does not strike very many guys out (17.4% kRate L30Days, lowest in MLB).

The Twins have been crushing lefty pitching in recent weeks and, in the month of July versus LHPs, Minnesota ranks 4th in AVG (.292), 1st in OPS (.945), 1st in wOBA (.402), 1st in ISO (.274), 1st in wRC+ (161), and 1st in HardContact% (49.5%). They’ve also posted the 2nd lowest kRate (15.2%) against lefties this month. MacKenzie Gore will inevitably bounce back into his usual ace-caliber form, but this just doesn’t seem like the spot for it to happen. Outside of All-Star slugger Byron Buxton, this is also a very affordable stack to target (though, any MIN stack should probably have Bux in it).

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Ryan Jeffers

Bargain Bats: Harrison Bader, Royce Lewis

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI vs. Will Warren (RHP), NYY

OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), CWS

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Zack Littell (RHP), TB

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

OF James Wood, WAS vs. Zebby Matthews (RHP), MIN

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. Joey Wentz (LHP), ATL

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Ryan Gusto (RHP), HOU

3B Junior Caminero, TB vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

1B/3B Rafael Devers, SF vs. Clay Holmes (RHP), NYM

2B/OF Jose Altuve, HOU vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA

OF Jarren Duran, BOS vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

3B/OF Addison Barger, TOR vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

OF Tyler Freeman, COL vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

1B Spencer Torkelson, DET vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Ramon Laureano, BAL vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

1B Willson Contreras, STL vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), SD

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

1B/C Salvador Perez, KC vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

OF Roman Anthony, BOS vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

OF Giancarlo Stanton, NYY vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), PHI

OF Mickey Moniak, COL vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX vs. Joey Wentz (LHP), ATL

SS Trevor Story, BOS vs. Emmet Sheehan (RHP), LAD

OF Nathan Lukes, TOR vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

SS Carlos Correa, MIN vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

C Danny Jansen, TB vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

OF Angel Martinez, CLE vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

OF Harrison Bader, MIN vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

1B Christian Walker, HOU vs. Jeffery Springs (LHP), ATH

C Yainer Diaz, HOU vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

3B Royce Lewis, MIN vs. MacKenzie Gore (LHP), WAS

1B/3B Will Wagner, TOR vs. Keider Montero (RHP), DET

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!