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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

For the second day in a row, we’ve got a small slate to break down with only four games on the docket. Just like yesterday, this slate will get underway at 6:40 ET. It is an intriguing little slate, I must say. Pitching isn’t necessarily great, but we should be expecting a good amount of offense to come out of these games, and that is reflected in the over/unders -- three games have a 9+ O/U. We’ll keep this newsletter fairly short and sweet today and meet back in 24 hours for tomorrow’s monster Friday slate! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣7/24 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• TOR at DET (6:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): This is looking like the only possible trouble spot on the slate. It seems more likely that this game will play dry, without any issues, but there is potential for some rain to move in during the mid/late innings, which could spark a delay. Check the radar closer to first pitch for a more confident reading. It’s going to be hot in Detroit with mid-90s temps to start. However, there will also be some 10-15 mph winds blowing IN from right, which neutralizes those toasty temps a bit.

• SD at STL (7:45 ET, 8.0 O/U): Hot and humid with light winds blowing right-to-left.

• SEA at LAA (9:38 ET, 9.5 O/U): 5-10 mph winds OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Sonny Gray (RHP), STL | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.5k | vs. SD

It hasn’t been an overly consistent season for Sonny Gray, but he has certainly erupted for some gigantic DFS performances. He has also been rather unlucky, as his 4.04 ERA is backed up by a much stronger 2.89 xFIP. That xFIP ranks 6th among all qualified MLB starters behind only Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb, Garrett Crochet, and Cristopher Sanchez, which is clearly some elite company. Gray’s luck has been much better at home, where he owns a 2.84 ERA this season -- much closer in line with his xFIP -- compared to a 5.84 ERA on the road. Gray also comes in with a 31.1% kRate over his last five starts, and he has issued just two walks (1.9% BB%) over those 26.2 IP, so the plate command has been elite. The main concern with Gray today is where his pitch count will end up. After pitching a one-hit complete game shutout versus the Guardians on June 27th, he has since thrown no more than 78 pitches in his last four outings.

The matchup with the Padres is interesting. The main reason for avoiding the Padres this season has been their tendency not to strike out very often. Their 18.7% kRate versus RHPs this season is the 3rd lowest in baseball. But there is no question that their bats are slumping right now. Against RHPs in July (413 PAs), the Padres own the 2nd worst AVG (.208), OPS (.605), wOBA (.271), ISO (.109), and wRC+ (75). So, the strikeout upside may not be overly high, and we’ll have to hope he gets back to a more typical starter’s pitch count, but if the latter comes to fruition, it should be a quality night for Gray.

Eric Lauer (LHP), TOR | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.8k | at DET

Reminder: Keep an eye on the weather for this game as there is potential for rain in the mid/late innings.

After spending 2024 in the KBO, it’s been a sneaky-good MLB return for Eric Lauer as he has pitched to a 2.80 ERA across his 61.0 IP with a stout 27.1% kRate. Lauer has spent some time pitching in long relief out of the bullpen, but this will mark his eighth consecutive game serving as a starter. He has built up to as high as 94 pitches, back on July 4th, and threw 81 pitches across six innings in his last start five days ago, so he is handling close to a normal starter’s workload. Spanning his previous six games (30.2 IP), Lauer has impressed with a rock-solid 3.23 ERA, 3.16 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, and 30.3% kRate. He has been allowing a high flyball rate (50.0% FB% L6Games) and the temps will be hot in Detroit this evening but, fortunately, in Lauer’s case, there will be some 10-15 mph winds blowing in at Comerica Park this evening that should knock down some of those fly balls and keep them from going over the fence. Lauer has leaned on his fastballs, throwing either the four-seamer or cutter on nearly 70% of his pitches. Normally, that’s not something you want to see out of a starter, but Lauer has commanded those pitches well and ranks 92nd percentile in fastball run value.

After boasting the best record in baseball for a good chunk of this season, the Detroit Tigers have hit a major skid in recent weeks and head into today with a 1-9 record over their last ten games. They have struggled mightily against LHPs in the month of July (153 PAs), hitting for only a .185 AVG with a .563 OPS, .104 ISO, 53 wRC+, and 24.8% kRate. So this is seemingly a matchup where Lauer could continue putting up some quality numbers, even if he isn’t a threat to pitch far beyond five innings.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.4k | vs. SEA

Luis Severino (RHP), ATH | DK: $6k, FD: $7.9k | at HOU

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Logan Evans (RHP), SEA

Logan Evans has had a few decent outings this season and owns a serviceable 3.81 ERA across his ten starts. But he has been rather fortunate to own that ERA, as it is backed up by a significantly worse 5.51 xERA. He is also getting hit extremely hard, with a 96.2 mph average exit velo over the last month, which places him well inside the bottom 5th percentile of pitchers in that span.

Against RHPs over the last month (697 PAs), the Angels’ offense has impressed with a .272 AVG (ranks 5th), .820 OPS (2nd), .355 wOBA (3rd), .193 ISO (6th), and 128 wRC+ (2nd). They’re 3rd in baseball with 28 HRs against RHPs in that stretch and lead the majors with a 17.4% HR/FB Rate. They still struggle with strikeouts, but Logan Evans is not much of a strikeout guy given his 17.0% kRate and 7.8% SwStr%. Evans often struggles to pitch more than five innings, so there is a likely chance that the Mariners’ bullpen has to cover four-plus innings tonight. The Seattle bullpen hasn’t been overly effective of late as they head in with a 5.75 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over the last two weeks.

Favorite LAA Bats: Zach Neto, Taylor Ward, Mike Trout

Bargain Bats: Logan O’Hoppe, Nolan Schanuel

Athletics vs. Jason Alexander (RHP), HOU

Jason Alexander has put up an impressive 1.55 ERA across 64.0 IP in Triple-A this year, but that has not translated to any real success at the MLB level… and his low Triple-A ERA is also backed up by a poor 4.96 xFIP. In 15.0 IP at the major league level this season, Alexander has pitched to an 8.40 ERA, 5.81 xFIP, 1.80 WHIP, 14.9% kRate, and 13.5% BB% (never good when your strikeout rate is nearly the same as your walk rate). He’s been a near-6 ERA guy across 86.2 career IP in the MLB. His one start this season did randomly come against this A’s team back on June 17th, and he ended up with a quality start (6.0 IP, 3 ER), but it would be a mild surprise if he finds similar success today.

The A’s offense is far from consistent, but they have an abundance of young talent in the lineup, which is spearheaded by Nick Kurtz, who is absolutely scorching the ball with an absurd 1.511 OPS and 300 wRC+ since July 4th. As a team against RHPs this month, the A’s may not be hitting for average (.239), but they’re still top-10 in OPS and wOBA while ranking 1st in MLB with a .233 ISO. Kurtz is almost single-handedly carrying some of those metrics, but, while this may not be an overly analytical point, you get the feeling that the A’s are “due” for a big offensive performance with significant contributions from other guys not named “Kurtz”.

Favorite ATH Bats: Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, Tyler Soderstrom

Bargain Bat: Shea Langeliers

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Reese Olson (RHP), DET

By four-game slate standards, I’d say the Blue Jays are looking fairly low-owned as every hitter in the projected lineup has a < 15% pOwn%. They’ve been much more productive at home (5.35 runs/gm, #3 home offense) versus on the road (3.85 runs/gm, #25 road offense), but we’ll see if some of their production can translate to an away game tonight. Against RHPs this month (458 PAs), the Blue Jays are 1st in AVG (.312), OPS (.861), wOBA (.373), and wRC+ (141) while also boasting the lowest kRate (15.3%).

Reese Olson is having a nice season -- 2.71 ERA, 3.77 xFIP, 1.19 WHIP, 23.6% kRate -- but he has drawn a pretty favorable schedule this year, and this should be one of the trickiest matchups he’s had to date. Olson is also getting hit hard, with a 92.7 mph average exit velo over the last month (bottom 5th percentile), and the flyball rate has also been creeping up. The Tigers’ bullpen has also faltered to a 6.69 ERA and 1.80 HR/9 Rate over the last two weeks, so even if Olson keeps the Blue Jays bats in check, there is potential for a late-inning surge. However it shakes out, I’d say there is a strong chance that Toronto exceeds their 4.0 implied run expectation.

Favorite TOR Bats: George Springer, Addison Barger, Vlad Guerrero Jr.

Bargain Bats: Alejandro Kirk, Nathan Lukes, Will Wagner

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

SS Zach Neto, LAA vs. Logan Evans (RHP), SEA

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Jason Alexander (RHP), HOU

3B Manny Machado, SD vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL

2B/OF Jose Altuve, HOU vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

OF George Springer, TOR vs. Reese Olson (RHP), DET

C Ivan Herrera, STL vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

1B Spencer Torkelson, DET vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), TOR

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

1B Nolan Schanuel, LAA vs. Logan Evans (RHP), SEA

C Shea Langeliers, ATH vs. Jason Alexander (RHP), HOU

C Alejandro Kirk, TOR vs. Reese Olson (RHP), DET

SS Xander Bogaerts, SD vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL

OF Alec Burleson, STL vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

1B Willson Contreras, STL vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

1B/C Victor Caratini, HOU vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

OF Nathan Lukes, TOR vs. Reese Olson (RHP), DET

C Logan O’Hoppe, LAA vs. Logan Evans (RHP), SEA

C Yainer Diaz, HOU vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

OF Jordan Walker, STL vs. Yu Darvish (RHP), SD

1B/3B Will Wagner, TOR vs. Reese Olson (RHP), DET

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!