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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Another split slate Wednesday is on deck! Most teams are playing earlier in the day, so we’ll be left with a modest five-game evening main slate -- and keep in mind that this slate will begin at 6:40 ET. It’s far from the sexiest five-game slate, but we’ll have a decent mix of viable pitching and hitters/stacks to choose from. Let’s waste no time and jump right into the action! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣7/23 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• BOS at PHI (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Low 80s temps with 5-10 mph winds OUT to left/center.

• CWS at TB (7:35 ET, 9.0 O/U): Kind of a routine summertime Florida forecast here where we won’t truly know how things are shaping up until closer to first pitch. Right now, it’s looking like there will be rain and storms around the general Tampa area this afternoon, and that may linger into the evening. Things do look like they’ll clear later on, so it seems like the *current* worst case scenario is a late start. But be sure to check that pesky radar later today. Low 80s temps with light ~5 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.7k | vs. BOS

It’s been an up-and-down last couple of months for Luzardo, but over the course of the season, he has put together a solid 2025 campaign. His 3.22 xFIP is over a run lower than his 4.29 ERA, so he has been the victim of some bad luck. Luzardo has been great from a strikeout perspective with a slate-best 27.5% kRate and 13.2% SwStr%. Despite some mixed results, there are plenty of green (good) figures in his recent statcast data over the last month -- including an 86.7 mph average exit velo (top 80th percentile), a low 24.0% HardContact%, and a 46.0% GroundBall%.

The Red Sox can be a dangerous offense at times, and we’ve seen them go on multiple hot streaks this season. However, they’ve been a bit cold at the plate of late. In the five games since returning from the All-Star Break (178 plate appearances), the Red Sox have put up a paltry .194 AVG, .568 OPS, 55 wRC+, and an MLB-high 30.9% kRate. They’ve scored two runs or fewer in four of those five games, and their splits against LHPs in that stretch have been worse than their overall numbers. It is a small and very short-term sample size, but this is certainly a spot where Luzardo can take advantage of a sputtering offense that is striking out at a very high clip.

JP Sears (LHP), ATH | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.6k | at TEX

If I had to guess, Taj Bradley (DK: $7k, FD: $9k), who is going up against the typically woeful White Sox, is going to be a popular option on this slate, particularly on DraftKings, given his generous $7,000 price point. JP Sears may catch a fair amount of ownership as well [on DK], but likely not as much as Bradley, so I like him as a pivot away from the Rays’ righty.

Sears has pitched well over his last four games, resulting in a serviceable 3.92 ERA, 4.52 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP, a .200 opponent average, and a 25.3% strikeout rate. The strikeout rate, in particular, has been solid, and he has also allowed a low 86.6 mph average exit velo (top 80th percentile) in that span.

The matchup may be the primary factor in what makes JP Sears an intriguing option today. The Rangers have been hitting righties very well, but the same has not been true against lefties. Against LHPs this month (207 PAs), the Rangers are hitting for just a .199 AVG with a 76 wRC+ to go alongside a hefty 28.0% kRate, which is the 2nd highest in MLB in that sample size. The Rangers have also put up a 26.8% Whiff% (3rd highest) against LHP four-seamers and sweepers this season, which are Sears’ two most utilized pitches. Overall, this sets up as a spot where Sears should be able to deliver five or six strong innings without giving up too much damage while also racking up at least a handful of strikeouts. That’s about all we can ask for at these low-end salaries.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Lucas Giolito (RHP), BOS | DK: $8k, FD: $8.7k | at PHI

Slade Cecconi (RHP), CLE | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.5k | vs. BAL

Taj Bradley (RHP), TB | DK: $7k, FD: $9k | vs. CWS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

Chris Bassitt has essentially been two different pitchers at home (2.53 ERA) versus on the road (5.66 ERA) this season, but we’ll see if a power-hitting Yankees lineup can break that trend in Toronto this evening. Against RHPs this month (510 PAs), the Yankees rank 5th or better in AVG (.272), OPS (.834), wOBA (.356), ISO (.224), and wRC+ (131) while posting the 8th lowest kRate (19.6%).

Bassitt has thrown either the sinker or cutter on over 60% of his pitches this season. That mix may not play well against a Yankees lineup that owns a superb .312 AVG, .399 wOBA, .243 ISO, and 51.3% HardHit% versus RHP sinkers and cutters this season. The current Yankees’ roster also boasts some quality BvP history against Bassitt -- over 128 PAs, they’re hitting .304 with a .384 wOBA against the veteran right-hander. The Blue Jays do have a pretty decent bullpen to support Bassitt if he gets into early trouble, but they have also put up the 10th-worst xFIP (4.38) over the last month.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Bargain Bat: Giancarlo Stanton

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

The Rays’ bats have been a bit ho-hum lately, and losing Brandon Lowe (ankle/foot) to the IL is a big blow. However, they will be in a nice spot today, and they’re the only team on this slate that has above a 4.5 implied run total (TB: 5.2 implied runs). They’re also at home today at Steinbrenner Field, which has been the #9 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season, and the #4 home run ballpark.

Jonathan Cannon gets the nod for the White Sox today. He has had some okay results lately, but I would not call facing the Pirates, Rockies, Giants, and Guardians in his last four starts an overly difficult gauntlet. Cannon owns a slate-worst 4.78 xFIP on the season, and he’s not a big strikeout guy with just a 17.1% kRate. Cannon has also allowed a high 32.3% LineDrive% over the last month, which is, of course, the type of batted ball that most often falls for hits and finds gaps for extra bases. The White Sox bullpen has been surprisingly stout in recent weeks, but they’re due for some regression, so the Rays could still do some late-inning damage once Cannon’s day is done.

Favorite TB Bats: Junior Caminero, Chandler Simpson, Jonathan Aranda

Bargain Bat: Danny Jansen

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cleveland Guardians vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), BAL

Seven of nine hitters in the projected Guardians lineup have a ≤ 10% pOwn%. Outside of a scorching-hot Jose Ramirez, Angel Martinez, and occasionally Kyle Manzardo, the rest of this Cleveland lineup has been struggling for quite some time now. But they’ll have a chance to get some offense going against a guy in Zach Eflin who has been out of action for nearly a month with a lower back injury. This will be Eflin’s first outing since June 28th, and his last three outings were nothing short of disastrous. In those last three starts, which spanned only nine innings, Eflin pitched to a 17.00 ERA, 3.44 WHIP, .540 opp AVG, .639 opp wOBA, 10.7% kRate, and he gave up six total home runs. I’d be surprised if Eflin pitches deep into this game, so expect plenty of action from the O’s bullpen today. That is a bullpen that has also been terrible in its own right. Since returning from the All-Star Break, the Baltimore bullpen has accounted for a 9.82 ERA, 6.52 xFIP, 2.45 WHIP, .308 opp AVG, and 2.45 HR/9 Rate. If other Guardians hitters, besides J-Ram and Martinez, can’t get going in this matchup, then I’m not sure what matchup it would take for them to find success in.

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Angel Martinez, Kyle Manzardo

Bargain Bats: Nolan Jones, Brayan Rocchio

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), BAL

1B Bryce Harper, PHI vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), BOS

3B Junior Caminero, TB vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. JP Sears (LHP), ATH

OF George Springer, TOR vs. Max Fried (LHP), NYY

3B Alex Bregman, BOS vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), PHI

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL vs. Slade Cecconi (RHP), CLE

OF Brent Rooker, ATH vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TEX

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Giancarlo Stanton, NYY vs. Chris Bassitt (RHP), TOR

2B Marcus Semien, TEX vs. JP Sears (LHP), ATH

OF Ramon Laureano, BAL vs. Slade Cecconi (RHP), CLE

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX vs. JP Sears (LHP), ATH

2B Jackson Holliday, BAL vs. Slade Cecconi (RHP), CLE

OF Luis Robert Jr., CWS vs. Taj Bradley (RHP), TB

1B Kyle Manzardo, CLE vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), BAL

2B/OF Angel Martinez, CLE vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), BAL

C Danny Jansen, TB vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

OF Nolan Jones, CLE vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), BAL

SS Brayan Rocchio, CLE vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), BAL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!