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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

A juicy 10-game Tuesday main slate hits the board this evening! This slate features some serious talent on the mound, but it is also balanced out the other direction with several offenses drawing plus matchups and, of course, Coors Field is on the menu once again. As for the weather, we will need to primarily keep an eye on one game in particular: the White Sox at Rays. There will be some notable PPD risk there, so this slate may get slimmed down to nine games. But it should be another fun night on the diamond, so let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣7/22 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• SF at ATL (7:15 ET, 9.5 O/U): Not expecting much, if any, trouble here, but it’s always worth double-checking the Atlanta summertime forecast closer to first pitch just in case any storms fire up in the area. Warm and humid ballpark conditions with light winds OUT to center. Nice hitting weather.

• CWS at TB (7:35 ET, 8.0 O/U): As noted in the intro, this is the main game to monitor today. There is rain and storms all around Florida today, and it’s probably going to take a little luck for them to get a fully dry game in this evening. The range of outcomes is wide here, but a PPD is certainly one of them, along with a game being played with little to no issues. Once again, the best course of action will be to check the radar closer to first pitch before locking in any players from this matchup.

• KC at CHC (8:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): Warm temps with 10 mph winds, mostly blowing right-to-left, a bit IN from right. That’s worth noting at the wind-sensitive Wrigley Field.

• STL at COL (8:40 ET, 12.0 O/U): Rain will be around this evening, but it’s not looking like the type of rain that would lead to a washout. So, possibly a delay here. Hitters are safer than pitchers, but I don’t believe either SP in this game should garner much in the way of DFS interest to begin with.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jacob Misiorowski (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.4k | at SEA

A strong case can be made for the top five or six guys on the board today, but Misiorowski is the shiny new toy on the shelf, so we’ll give him the spotlight. He has been as advertised over his first five big league starts, pitching to a 2.81 ERA, 3.14 xFIP, 0.90 WHIP, and 33.7% kRate. If you take away the lone down game that he had against the Mets, in which he gave up five runs across 3.2 IP, those numbers improve to a 1.23 ERA, 2.45 xFIP, 0.68 WHIP, and a blistering 39.2% kRate. Miz has already displayed a monster ceiling with a 12 K performance against the Dodgers in his most recent start before the All-Star Break. That said, he’s still a very inexperienced big leaguer and does have some concerning statcast data to consider, and he can also get into some trouble with walks (11.2% BB%). But the raw talent has been undeniable, to say the least.

The matchup with the Mariners is an interesting one. On one hand, Seattle has ranked 2nd with a 130 wRC+ versus RHPs since July 1st. On the other hand, their 25.5% kRate in that same span is the 2nd highest in MLB. Misiorowski’s pitch mix features a flaming four-seam fastball (99.3 mph average velo), a wicked slider (94.4 mph average velo), and a devastating curveball (50.0% Whiff%). Versus that pitch mix, we’ll find that the Mariners rank 18th in wOBA and, more notably, they’ve posted the 6th highest kRate (24.5%) and 4th highest Whiff% (26.9%). Seattle does have plenty of lefty bats to throw at Misiorowski this evening (six LHBs in the projected SEA lineup), but that may not be a major detriment for his DFS potential. He does have traditional splits, so lefties have done more damage to him thus far. But he has also posted a 40.4% kRate versus LHPs, compared to a 26.7% kRate versus RHPs, so, once again, we have to love the strikeout potential here. This game is also being played at the very pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park (#2 most pitcher-friendly park this season), and the Mariners have averaged nearly a run-and-a-half less per game at home (3.94 runs/gm) than on the road (5.40 runs/gm).

Matthew Boyd (LHP), CHC | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.9k | vs. KC

Boyd had to deal with plenty of difficult matchups to start the season, and, for the most part, he pitched well in those games. But his DFS results have been considerably better overall ever since his schedule eased up in early May. Spanning his last 13 starts (78.1 IP), Boyd has pitched to a 2.18 ERA, 3.56 xFIP, 0.86 WHIP, 24.4% kRate, and 3.4% BB%. He has also shown more upside at home (+42.4% more FPPG), and a lot of it has to do with his 27.5% kRate at home, which is a clear improvement over his 19.6% kRate on the road.

The matchup dynamic is similar to the one discussed above (Misiorowski vs. Seattle). The Royals have been very strong against LHPs lately, ranking 2nd with a 131 wRC+ against lefties over the last month. However, they’ve also posted a hefty 27.5% kRate in that same span against LHPs. On the season, the Royals are bottom-10 in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against LHPs, so they could regress to the mean at any moment. And we also have to consider that Matthew Boyd is simply a better pitcher than most of the lefties that the Royals have knocked around recently. With the Royals also wheeling out 45-year-old Rich Hill onto the mound today, the Cubs (-250 ML) check in as the heaviest favorites on the slate. So, overall, I’d assume that we’ll get at least six strong innings out of Boyd today with a nice strikeout total and a great shot at snagging the win bonus as well.

Landen Roupp (RHP), SF | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8k | at ATL

There is not much to love in the SP bargain bin today, but Landen Roupp is at least a bit intriguing if you’re looking for value. He has pitched well across his last five starts, which has resulted in a 1.37 ERA, 3.62 xFIP, 0.30 HR/9 Rate, 52.0% GroundBall%, and 22.6% kRate. He posted a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) against the Braves earlier this season and, though the conditions in Atlanta will be favorable for offense this evening, if Roupp continues to force a 50+% groundball rate, then that may not matter much for his final line.

The Braves’ offense, which has been a disappointment for much of the season, has improved lately. They’re 11th in MLB with a 115 wRC+ against RHPs in the month of July, and the power has also been there with a .220 ISO in that same span (ranks 2nd in MLB). However, they are still striking out at a higher-than-average rate (23.8%) in that stretch, and they have also posted the 8th highest GroundBall%, which could play into Roupp’s favor. The Giants’ bullpen could be shorthanded today after starter Hayden Birdsong failed to record an out in yesterday’s game before getting the early hook, so you have to imagine that Roupp will have a long leash tonight. This does feel like a slate where paying up for pitching is easily the preferred move, but if a few things go his way, Roupp has some solid 20 DKFP/35 FDFP potential in this game.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Jacob deGrom (RHP), TEX | DK: $9.8k, FD: $11k | vs. ATH

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10k | vs. MIN

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.7k | vs. MIL

Franie Montas (RHP), NYM | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.7k | vs. LAA

Max Scherzer (RHP), TOR | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.2k | vs. NYY

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Bradley Blalock (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), STL

Non-Coors Stacks

Chicago Cubs vs. Rich Hill (LHP), KC

Rich Hill still pitching at the MLB level at 45 years of age is a fun story, but it’s tough to imagine he’ll find much success tonight in his 2025 debut. Across 50.0 IP in the minor leagues this year, Hill has posted a surprisingly strong 27.4% kRate. But that’s about where the “good” ends as the rest of his key pitching metrics and results have been pretty ugly -- 5.22 ERA, 4.59 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP, and 1.98 HR/9 Rate. Hill may not pitch too deep in this game, which would leave the Royals’ bullpen to cover a good chunk of innings. The KC bullpen has not been overly sharp in recent weeks, and their 4.62 xFIP L30Days is the 2nd worst mark in MLB.

The Cubbies’ offense has hit lefties well in recent weeks, and that has been especially true when they’ve been at home in Wrigley Field. Against LHPs at home over the last month (164 PAs), the Cubs have put up a .285 AVG, .896 OPS, .385 wOBA, .243 ISO, and 153 wRC+.

Favorite CHC Bats: Seiya Suzuki, Carson Kelly, Pete Crow-Armstrong

Bargain Bats: Nico Hoerner, Matt Shaw, Justin Turner

Houston Astros vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

If you’re looking to pay up for high-quality pitching and/or Coors Field bats, pairing them with a cheap Houston stack may be a successful approach on this slate. Jose Altuve (DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.1k) is the only Astros bat in the projected lineup that costs more than $3,700 (DK)/$3,000 (FD). And they’ll draw a pretty favorable matchup versus LHP Eduardo Rodriguez this evening. Rodriguez had a couple of rough outings ahead of the All-Star Break, giving up four runs on eight hits (two HRs) to the Padres across four innings and eight runs on 12 hits (three HRs) across 4.1 IP the game prior against the Royals. He has been surrendering plenty of barreled balls, has a 30.6% LineDrive% over the last month, and also averages 40% less FPPG at home (Chase Field: #8 most hitter-friendly ballpark).

The Astros have several key bats on the IL due to various injuries -- Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena, Jake Meyers, and Isaac Paredes, among others. But, even while being at far less than full strength on offense, they’ve managed to provide some nice results against LHPs. Since July 1st against LHPs (155 PAs), the Astros have produced a .309 AVG, .839 OPS, .359 wOBA, 132 wRC+, and 18.1% kRate… solid all-around numbers.

Favorite HOU Bats: Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, Cam Smith

Bargain Bats: Yainer Diaz, Victor Caratini, Chas McCormick, Brice Matthews

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers (LHBs Preferred) vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

Every hitter in the projected Rangers lineup has a < 10% pOwn% with eight hitters under 5% pOwn%. Against RHPs since July 1st (418 PAs), the Rangers have ranked 4th or better in AVG (.278), OPS (.823), wOBA (.356), and wRC+ (130).

JT Ginn will get the start for the A’s this evening. Ginn owns a lackluster 4.91 ERA on the season, but he has pitched considerably better than the ERA would indicate based on his excellent 2.87 xFIP. He has also put up an electric 29.1% kRate on the season. Home runs have been an issue for him, however, with a lofty 2.18 HR/9 Rate, and he has really struggled against lefty hitters. As a result, the Rangers’ LHBs should be the preferred targets here. Against LHBs, Ginn has allowed a .340 AVG, .464 wOBA, .340 ISO, 2.03 WHIP, 17.5% kRate, and 3.97 HR/9 Rate -- compare those numbers to his much stronger splits versus RHBs: .200 AVG, .253 wOBA, .138 ISO, 0.92 WHIP, 36.9% kRate, and 1.25 HR/9 Rate. That being said, Ginn isn’t likely to pitch too deep into this game. He began the year as a starter but was moved to a bullpen role and hasn’t thrown more than 55 pitches in a game since May 19th. But we’ll still like some of these low-owned Rangers’ bats because the A’s bullpen has certainly been prone to getting shelled throughout this season.

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Evan Carter, Josh Smith

Bargain Bat: Rowdy Tellez

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), TOR

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (RHP), MIN

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL vs. Landen Roupp (RHP), SF

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Jacob Misiorowski (RHP), MIL

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), CHC

3B Eugenio Suarez, ARI vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC vs. Rich Hill (LHP), KC

2B Brendan Donovan, STL vs. Bradley Blalock (RHP), COL

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

1B Yandy Diaz, TB vs. Davis Martin (RHP), CWS

OF Taylor Ward, LAA vs. Frankie Montas (RHP), NYM

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Jacob deGrom (RHP), TEX

3B/OF Addison Barger, TOR vs. Cam Schlittler (RHP), NYY

OF Christian Yelich, MIL vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA

2B/OF Jose Altuve, HOU vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

SS Willy Adames, SF vs. Davis Daniel (RHP), ATL

OF Mickey Moniak, COL vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), STL

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

3B Matt Chapman, SF vs. Davis Daniel (RHP), ATL

C Carson Kelly, CHC vs. Rich Hill (LHP), KC

OF Cam Smith, HOU vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

2B Nico Hoerner, CHC vs. Rich Hill (LHP), KC

OF Giancarlo Stanton, NYY vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), TOR

C Sean Murphy, ATL vs. Landen Roupp (RHP), SF

OF Jordan Walker, STL vs. Bradley Blalock (RHP), COL

3B Josh Smith, TEX vs. JT Ginn (RHP), ATH

OF Victor Scott II, STL vs. Bradley Blalock (RHP), COL

1B/C Victor Caratini, HOU vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

1B/C Salvador Perez, KC vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), CHC

C Yainer Diaz, HOU vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

1B Christian Walker, HOU vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

2B/3B Brett Baty, NYM vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), LAA

3B Matt Shaw, CHC vs. Rich Hill (LHP), KC

2B Brice Matthews, HOU vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!