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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We’ll run it back with another 10-game MLB main slate today! Hopefully, this slate won’t be whittled down by suspended or postponed games like yesterday’s slate was. But, based on an early weather outlook, I think we should be all good today with no major PPD concerns. Additionally, in a rare twist, FanDuel will include the evening doubleheader games, ensuring no discrepancies between the DraftKings and FanDuel slates. Today’s 10-gamer will feature a nice mix between quality pitching and viable hitter/stack options. There is no shortage of ways to attack this one, so it’s going to be a fun slate to build for. Let’s get it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣7/2 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• CIN at BOS (Game 2, 7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): The forecast looks dry with only the slimmest of rain chances. 80 degrees with light 5-10 mph winds OUT to center.

• MIL at NYM (Game 2, 7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): A few showers may pop up in the NY area this evening, so we can’t totally rule out a delay. However, there is virtually zero PPD risk. 80 degrees with light winds OUT to left.

• LAA at ATL (7:15 ET, 9.5 O/U): I’m not seeing anything of concern at the moment, but storms can develop out of nowhere this time of year in Atlanta. But we shouldn’t expect any issues at this time. Mid-80s temps with light winds OUT to left.

• CLE at CHC (8:05 ET, 8.0 O/U): Low-80s temps with light winds (~5 mph) mostly blowing OUT to right, a bit left-to-right.

• HOU at COL (8:40 ET, 10.5 O/U): Hot temps around 90 degrees to start. 10 mph winds mostly blowing right-to-left, potentially OUT to left at times.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI | DK: $9.1k, FD: $9.5k | vs. SF

There is some major arm talent at the top of pricing today between Jacob Misiorowski, Hunter Brown, and Logan Gilbert. A strong case can be made for any of those three filthy right-handers, but, while he may not be the most enticing option, Merrill Kelly will land the spotlight today. Kelly has shown some significant upside here lately and, dating back to May 12th (9 GS, 54.0 IP), he has procured a 3.00 ERA, 2.52 xFIP, .223 opp AVG, 31.0% kRate, and 6.5% BB%. Kelly may not be an official ace, but he has provided ace-caliber results over the last couple of months.

Even with Rafael Devers now in the lineup every day for San Fran, this offense just doesn’t instill much fear in opposing pitchers. Against RHPs L2Weeks, they’re hitting just .210 with a .646 OPS, 85 wRC+, and a higher-than-average 22.4% kRate. I believe Kelly has a great chance to post a similar result as his last meeting with the Giants, which came on that May 12th date, which, as mentioned, is when he started to take off. He covered seven one-run innings against the Giants that day while striking out eight and scoring 28.95 DKFP/52 FDFP.

Shota Imanaga (LHP), CHC | DK: $8.5k, FD: $7.8k | vs. CLE

It’s an interesting spot for Imanaga today as he makes his second start following a near-two-month-long layoff due to a hamstring injury. He looked sharp in his return last week, throwing five shutout innings against the Cardinals where he allowed just two baserunners (one hit, one walk). Imanaga’s strikeouts have been down so far this season, with his kRate only at 18.9%. For comparison, he had a 25.1% kRate in his 2024 rookie season. But he has only made nine starts this year and, if you look at some of his early-season opponents, you’ll notice some stiff competition. Imanaga faced the Dodgers twice, the Padres twice, and the D-Backs once within his first six starts. Those teams have three of the five lowest kRates against LHPs this season. We will like the fact that Imanaga is at home this evening as he has posted a 26.8% kRate in his young career when pitching at Wrigley Field (versus 20.1% kRate on the road).

And, continuing with a running theme for this newsletter over the last few weeks, we’ll love the concept of rolling out a lefty against this Guardians lineup. Cleveland has been pretty awful against LHPs in general, but they’ve taken it to another level of “awful” when facing LHPs on the road. Over the last month against LHPs on the road (190 plate appearances), the Guardians have hit for a meager .188 AVG, .500 OPS, .221 wOBA, .080 ISO, 37 wRC+, and 24.7% kRate. When a team’s wOBA is looking like a poor batting average, you know they’re hard slumping. Imanaga threw 71 pitches in his final rehab start before returning to an MLB mound last week and throwing 77 pitches. So, we should expect him to still have some limitations but handle a mostly full workload tonight -- perhaps around 85-90 pitches. The Cubs are also heavy -168 ML favorites, so Imanaga is a good candidate to pick up a win tonight as well.

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.7k | at ATL

Kikuchi has put up an impressive 2.79 ERA across 17 starts this season, alongside a quality 24.1% kRate. He has been rather fortunate to pitch to that sub-three ERA, based on his 4.10 xFIP, but that’s still not a terrible number by any means. He’s also riding some very nice form heading into tonight’s action. Spanning his last four starts (27.0 IP), Kikuchi has pitched to a 1.67 ERA, 2.28 xFIP, .175 opp AVG, 0.78 WHIP, 4.0% BB%, and has put up an electric 35.6% kRate. He has given up plenty of hard contact and barrels in that stretch, but somehow, someway, that hasn’t really been hurting him.

Also, another Angels lefty, Tyler Anderson, went into this matchup against Atlanta last night with a near-7 ERA over his previous five starts. He then carved up the Braves across six shutout innings, allowing just four hits and two walks, and he matched a season-high in strikeouts (7). Kikuchi is a considerably better pitcher than Anderson, so it wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see Atlanta’s struggles against LHPs continue. The Braves rank 22nd or worse against LHPs in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ to go alongside the 11th highest kRate (24.0%). Kikuchi also throws either the slider or four-seamer on over 70% of his pitches. Against that pitch mix (from LHPs), the Braves have the 4th-lowest batting average (.214) and 9th-highest strikeout rate (27.9%). The Braves do get Jurickson Profar back from his 80-game PED suspension today, which makes an improvement to the lineup over the now DFA’d Alex Verdugo, but I’m not sure if that will be enough to get this offense going, especially while Ronald Acuña Jr. is riding a major slump over the last handful of games (he earned a golden sombrero last night).

Other Pitchers to Consider

Jacob Misiorowski (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.5k, FD: $9.3k | at NYM

Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU | DK: $10.3k, FD: $9.7k | at COL

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.4k | vs. KC

Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD | DK: $8k, FD: $8.5k | vs. CWS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Houston Astros vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

Non-Coors Stacks

Los Angeles Angels vs. Didier Fuentes (RHP), ATL

Throwing the Angels more love here against my bumbling Braves! But it is warranted. The Angels against RHPs L2Weeks (300 PAs): .825 OPS (4th in MLB), .363 wOBA (3rd), .206 ISO (5th), 135 wRC+ (4th), and 20.9% HR/FB Rate (2nd). They don’t necessarily hit for average (.246 AVG vs. RHPs L2Weeks), but they’ve connected on plenty of extra-base hits and homers lately and draw a promising matchup versus an inexperienced pitcher today.

Didier Fuentes is making just his third MLB start. Just a couple of weeks ago, he was still a teenager, and the learning curve has been steep for the young Fuentes, who also made just one start at the Triple-A level before being called up. In his 8.1 MLB innings pitched, he has already given up ten earned runs (10.80 ERA) and three homers (3.24 HR/9 Rate). He has not shown much strikeout ability, with just a 10% kRate and 8.1% SwStr%. He may be a factor in a big league rotation down the line, but right now, he simply does not have the stuff or arsenal to compete at this level. Fuentes throws an overwhelming amount of four-seam fastballs (60.2% USG%), and it’s a pretty flat fastball at that. Against RHP four-seamers this season, the Angels are 9th in wOBA (.358) and 4th in ISO (.218), so they’re very likely to get some big hits against Fuentes this evening. The Braves’ bullpen has been great lately, and Fuentes may have a short leash in this game, but there is some definite upside to be had with several Angels’ bats today.

Favorite LAA Bats: Mike Trout, Zach Neto, Taylor Ward

Bargain Bat: Jo Adell/Nolan Schanuel/Luis Rengifo

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Blade Tidwell (RHP), NYM

It doesn’t always work out as planned, but I have enjoyed rolling some Brewers stacks when they’re on the road this season. Milwaukee has been the No. 1 road offense in baseball this season, averaging 5.65 runs/gm -- that’s a massive difference from their home average of just 3.89 runs/gm, so there is something to this “road Brewers” narrative. Against RHPs on the road L30Days (251 PAs), the Brewers own a .290 AVG, .812 OPS, .350 wOBA, 124 wRC+, and 17.9% kRate. Each of those figures ranks 4th or better in those splits.

Keep in mind that this game will be the second leg of a doubleheader. The first game is still ongoing as I am writing this, but the Mets’ game two starter is slated to be RHP Blade Tidwell. First off, his name is “Blade,” so that’s already a knock against him. Secondly, the rookie has not pitched well across his 10.1 IP at the MLB level -- 10.13 ERA, 6.50 xFIP, .367 opp AVG, 2.44 WHIP, 12.1% kRate, and 13.8% BB%. It is a small sample size, but having a walk rate that is higher than your strikeout rate is never good. It’s TBD, but the Mets bullpen may be stretched thin on a doubleheader day, as is often the case in these situations. That bullpen also just hasn’t been at its best lately. Over the last two weeks, the Mets’ bullpen owns a 6.79 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. So we’ll count on the road Brewers to do some damage tonight.

Favorite MIL Bats: Christian Yelich, Brice Turang, Sal Frelick

Bargain Bat: Isaac Collins/Caleb Durbin

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), BAL

Eight of nine hitters in the confirmed Rangers’ lineup have a ≤ 6% pOwn%. It’s been a bumpy season for the Rangers’ offense, but they may be finding a bit of mojo lately and have scored 16 runs on 21 hits across the first two games of this series against the O’s. The full lineup isn’t clicking yet, but you’ve got guys like Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Adolis Garcia who head into tonight’s game with some momentum.

It also helps that Texas will take on a laboring Tomoyuki Sugano, who heads in with an 8.15 ERA, 6.00 xFIP, 2.09 WHIP, .366 opp AVG, 2.50 HR/9 Rate, and 13.0% kRate over his previous four starts. Sugano does not miss many bats (7.4% SwStr%), and his “stuff” is well below MLB average (92 Stuff+ rating). The Baltimore bullpen has also posted a 5.79 ERA, .279 opp AVG, and 1.61 WHIP over the L2Weeks and the Rangers have inflicted a good amount of damage on the Orioles’ bullpen this season. Everyone in this Rangers’ lineup is very affordable, so if you want some Coors bats or high-end pitching, it’s a sensible stack option to pair with those approaches.

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia

Bargain Bat: Josh Smith

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Brandon Eisert (LHP)/Sean Burke (RHP), CWS

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Noah Cameron (LHP), KC

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

OF Kyle Tucker, CHC vs. Tanner Bibee (RHP), CLE

2B Ketel Marte, ARI vs. Landen Roupp (RHP), SF

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Cooper Criswell (RHP), BOS

OF Christian Yelich, MIL vs. Blade Tidwell (RHP), NYM

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Jacob Misiorowski (RHP), MIL

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR vs. Will Warren (RHP), NYY

C Hunter Goodman, COL vs. Hunter Brown (RHP), HOU

2B/3B Jazz Chisholm Jr., NYY vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

3B Rafael Devers, SF vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. Didier Fuentes (RHP), ATL

OF Jarren Duran, BOS vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

OF Cam Smith, HOU vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Jo Adell, LAA vs. Didier Fuentes (RHP), ATL

1B/SS Josh Smith, TEX vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), BAL

OF Roman Anthony, BOS vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

3B/OF Addison Barger, TOR vs. Will Warren (RHP), NYY

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), BAL

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI vs. Landen Roupp (RHP), SF

SS Trevor Story, BOS vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

C Victor Caratini, HOU vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

2B Marcus Semien, TEX vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), BAL

OF Adolis Garcia, TEX vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), BAL

OF Isaac Collins, MIL vs. Blade Tidwell (RHP), NYM

3B Caleb Durbin, MIL vs. Blade Tidwell (RHP), NYM

C Gary Sanchez, BAL vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

3B Luis Rengifo, LAA vs. Didier Fuentes (RHP), ATL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!