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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Every team is set to kick off their final series before the All-Star Break arrives on Monday! And, boy, do we have a doozy of a Friday slate lined up today. All 30 MLB teams will reside on the DraftKings 15-game main slate while FanDuel will be slimmed down to “only” 14 games, as they are excluding game two of the CLE/CWS doubleheader. As you might imagine, we’ve got a little bit of everything on this behemoth slate. On the mound, we have a group of hurlers consisting of Cy Young Award favorites, “tier two” aces, uber-talented young up-and-coming flamethrowers, and wily veterans squeezing the last ounce of baseball out of their throwing arms. Seven games are pinned with 9+ run over/unders, so plenty of offense can be expected tonight as well. Ten teams own at least a 4.6 implied run total, and several teams below that mark will undoubtedly exceed expectations. There will also be a few spots to keep an eye on as it pertains to troublesome weather. The current assumption is that we’ll avoid any postponements, but, as we saw with the CLE/CWS game yesterday, sometimes these things can be tricky to predict.

This will be the final MLB newsletter until next Friday, when teams return to the action following the All-Star Break, so we’ll try to make this a strong article. Enjoy the break, and I’ll catch y’all a week from now! Best of luck tonight!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣7/11 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• MIA at BAL (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): There will be some scattered storms around, but they are expected to stay clear north of the ballpark. Should be fine here.

• SEA at DET (7:10 ET, 7.0 O/U): A line of storms has just cleared Detroit as I’m writing this. Another cluster of storms is upstream but is currently expected to stay north of the ballpark. So they should be clear for this evening, but it’s worth double-checking closer to first pitch to be sure. Low-80s temps with 5-10 mph winds IN from right/center.

• NYM at KC (8:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): A line of storms looks to spark up later in the afternoon or around scheduled first pitch. Those storms should fade or move out of the area later in the evening, so the current lean will be a “late start and play”. But it’s another spot to check up on closer to gametime. Low-80s temps with 10 mph winds OUT to center.

• CLE at CWS (8:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): [Game Two, DK Main Slate Only] Could be tricky here again for game two of the doubleheader. It looks like they’ll start dry with storm chances increasing in the mid-to-late innings. So delay risk is moderately high, and a PPD cannot be ruled out just yet. Once again, check the outlook closer to gametime.

• PIT at MIN (8:10 ET, 7.0 O/U): Similar outlook to CLE/CWS but to a lesser degree. They should start dry with a bit of rain moving in later in the evening. For now, I’ll say they should be okay here but may need to play through some light-to-moderate rain.

• ATL at STL (8:15 ET, 8.5 O/U): A few scattered showers around, but they will avoid the ballpark in all likelihood. Hot & humid with 10 mph winds OUT to left.

• TOR at ATH (10:05 ET, 11.0 O/U): More excellent hitting weather with temps in the 90s for most of the night and 10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Joe Ryan (RHP), MIN | DK: $10k, FD: $10.3k | vs. PIT

Reminder: Monitor weather here.

Ryan may not be on the same tier as other aces on this slate like Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes, the latter of whom is his counterpart today, but he’s having an outstanding season with a 2.76 ERA, 3.53 xFIP, 0.89 WHIP, 28.6% kRate, and 5.2% BB% across 17 starts. Ryan’s strikeout rate has also jumped by over ten percentage points at home this season, where he owns a stellar 33.9% kRate, versus a 23.8% kRate on the road. Ryan’s recent DFS scores would look better on paper if he had notched some more wins. The Twins have lost four of the last five games that Ryan has started, but that has been no real fault of his own, as he has posted a quality 2.30 ERA in that span.

While the DFS results haven’t been eye-popping for Ryan recently, this is arguably the most favorable matchup he has drawn in months. The Pirates head in with the 3rd lowest OPS (.613), 3rd lowest wOBA (.272), THE lowest ISO (.097), and 2nd lowest wRC+ (69) against RHPs over the last month, to go along with a 24.0% kRate (5th highest). Against Joe Ryan’s primary pitch mix, which features a four-seamer, sweeper, and splitter, the Pirates have put up the lowest batting average (.210), lowest wOBA (.272), lowest ISO (.102), and 7th highest kRate (24.5%). This is shaping up to be a good ol’ fashioned pitcher’s duel with Paul Skenes on the other side, and that is reflected in the slate-low 6.5-run over/under. However, the sportsbooks are giving the Twins the nod here as likely winners based on their -143 ML odds. And I’d say there is a moderately strong chance that we’ll get a ceiling game out of Ryan this evening, especially if he tacks on the win bonus.

Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.2k | at LAA

I’d say the Ryne Nelson transition from long reliever back into a full-time starter has been quite successful for Arizona. Nelson has been particularly sharp over his last five starts, in which he has acquired a 3-0 record and posted a 1.53 ERA, 3.60 xFIP, .168 opp AVG, 0.78 WHIP, 24.1% kRate, and 5.6% BB% across 29.1 IP. Admittedly, Nelson drew a very favorable schedule in that stretch, which included matchups versus the White Sox, Royals, Giants, and Padres. But he has done what a good pitcher is supposed to do, which is pitch well versus bad or struggling offenses.

Nelson draws the Angels on the road in Anaheim this evening. This matchup has been tricky for opposing pitchers over the last month or so. This Angels lineup does strike out quite a bit, but they also have plenty of bats with legitimate home run power. That’s pretty well reflected in their 24.6% kRate against RHPs over the last month, which is the 3rd highest in baseball. However, their 28 HRs off of RHPs in that same span are the 10th most in MLB. Nelson does throw a heavy dose of fastballs with a 62.6% four-seamer usage rate. That can work for relievers, but it can be a dangerous approach for starters. That being said, the Angels do have the second-highest strikeout rate versus RHP four-seamers at 24.6%, but they’re also 7th with a .360 wOBA. So, it’s tough to label this a “safe” matchup, but the K upside is certainly there. Nelson is particularly appealing on DraftKings at his $7,800 price tag.

Chase Burns (RHP), CIN | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.8k | vs. COL

This pick probably won’t surprise anyone. A softly-priced Chase Burns is going to be a very popular target tonight. But if you’re okay eating some chalk, he does look like a great salary-saving SP option. Burns is the No. 2 overall prospect in baseball, according to MLB.com, and we’ve seen a glimpse of his upside already through his three starts. He got completely shelled in his second MLB start on the road against Boston last Monday, failing to make it out of the first inning. Mostly as a result of that game, he’s acquired an 8.10 ERA over ten big league innings. However, his 3.52 xFIP is a much better indication of where his ERA should be, and he has been “as advertised” in the strikeout category with a 30.6% kRate. Burns’ signature fastball has averaged 98.2 mph (96th percentile), and his secondary pitch, the slider, has generated a 39.4% Whiff%. No matter how highly-touted a guy may be, it can take time for any young pitcher to adjust to the Major League level, but it was nice to see Burns bounce back with a solid outing against the Phillies on Sunday (4.2 IP, 2 H, 4 BB, 1 ER, 7 K, 91 pitches) after getting rocked by the Red Sox the start before.

Getting a matchup with the “road Rockies” is clearly a primary selling point here. Recently, Colorado honestly hasn’t been the total pushovers that they have been for much of the season. They own a not-horrible-but-still-subpar 95 wRC+ against RHPs on the road over the last month (393 PAs). However, the kRate has been incredibly high at 32.3% in that same sample size. So we’re not going to expect Burns to pitch five or six shutout innings, but the strikeout upside is quite obviously there. And, at these mid-range DFS price points, Burns sets up as one of the best options on this monster slate.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET | DK: $12k, FD: $11.5k | vs. SEA (Monitor weather)

Paul Skenes (RHP), PIT | DK: $10.5k, FD: $11k | at MIN (Monitor weather)

Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.8k | at SD

Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.3k | at STL

Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL | DK: $8k, FD: $9k | vs. ATL

Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.7k | at BAL

DraftKings Main Slate Only

Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE | DK: $7.9k, FD: N/A | at CWS (Monitor weather)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

It is actually pretty wild how drastic the offensive results have been for the Blue Jays at home versus on the road. They’re the No. 5 home offense, averaging 5.31 runs/gm, but the No. 24 road offense, averaging 3.82 runs/gm. But, at the same time, Luis Severino has been two completely different pitchers at home (7.04 ERA, .298 opp AVG, .360 opp wOBA, 1.60 WHIP) versus on the road (3.04 ERA, .219 opp AVG, .281 opp wOBA, 1.12 WHIP). We’ll see which “bad version” wins in this matchup -- the road Blue Jays or the at-home Severino.

While most of the good results did come at home, the Blue Jays have been outstanding against RHPs L2Weeks: .308 AVG (2nd), .863 OPS (2nd), .373 wOBA (2nd), 141 wRC+ (2nd), and 14.2% kRate (1st). The A’s bullpen, which isn’t great to begin with, used some of their best relievers in yesterday’s extra innings game versus the Braves, so they’re not going to be at full strength. And, once again, Sutter Health Park, the No. 2 most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball, is going to feature some outstanding hitting weather with temps in the 90s and 10 mph winds blowing out to left. Expect more dingers here tonight in a ballpark that has quickly turned into “Coors Field Light”.

Favorite TOR Bats: George Springer, Addison Barger, Vlad Guerrero Jr.

Bargain Bat: Nathan Lukes

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS

I don’t mind taking some shots on the Brew Crew against a struggling lefty. Against LHPs L30Days, the Brewers rank 1st in AVG (.313), OPS (.838), wOBA (.366), and wRC+ (138) while maintaining a low kRate (17.5%, 3rd lowest).

Mitchell Parker heads in with a 1.71 WHIP and near-6 ERA over his last five starts, and, based on his statcast data, he’s pretty fortunate that those numbers aren’t much worse. Over the last month, Parker has allowed a 94.5 mph average exit velo (bottom 5th percentile), 12 barreled balls (bottom 5%), and 198.2 feet average batted ball distance (bottom 15%). He has also allowed a high 31.3% LineDrive% while inducing just a 4.2% SoftContact%. So, he’s getting hit and hit HARD. He has had his fair share of problems on the road (80% less FPPG) as well. Parker will be backed up by a Nationals bullpen that has ranked either dead last or second-to-last in every key pitching metric this season (opp AVG, ERA, xFIP, WHIP, and kRate).

Favorite MIL Bats: Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich, Isaac Collins

Bargain Bats: Caleb Durbin, Andrew Vaughn, Joey Ortiz

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Houston Astros vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

Every hitter in the confirmed Astros lineup has a ≤ 10% pOwn% with seven hitters at < 5% pOwn%. 2B/SS Brice Matthews, a top 100 prospect in MLB, will be making his debut today but is not in the player pool on DraftKings (he is on FanDuel). The Astros have been excellent against righty pitching, ranking 5th or better in AVG (.287), OPS (.840), wOBA (.362), ISO (.205), wRC+ (134), and kRate (18.1%) over the last two weeks. This is also going to be an affordable stack with Jose Altuve being the only hitter over $4,000 on DraftKings -- Altuve and Isaac Paredes are the only bats over $3,000 on FanDuel.

Jack Leiter has some talent but hasn’t been in top form as he heads in with a 6.08 ERA, 1.69 WHIP, and 18.5% kRate over his last five starts. He’s also another pitcher that has been hit hard recently, with a 94.0 mph average exit velo (bottom 5%) and 11 barreled balls allowed (bottom 5%) over the last month, along with a minuscule 6.4% SoftContact%. The Rangers have an “okay” bullpen backing Leiter, but they have ranked bottom 10 in opponent AVG, WHIP, and xFIP over the last two weeks.

Favorite HOU Bats: Jose Altuve, Isaac Paredes, Cam Smith

Bargain Bats: Yainer Diaz, Christian Walker, Mauricio Dubon

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), CHC

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

OF Juan Soto, NYM vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Kodai Senga (RHP), NYM

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

OF James Wood, WAS vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), MIL

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS

2B Ketel Marte, ARI vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

OF Riley Greene, DET vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI vs. Ryan Bergert (RHP), SD

OF Seiya Suzuki, CHC vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

SS Zach Neto, LAA vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), TOR

OF George Springer, TOR vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS

OF Jarren Duran, BOS vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

2B Jose Altuve, HOU vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP), HOU

SS Gunnar Henderson, BAL vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

1B Jonathan Aranda, TB vs. Hunter Dobbins (RHP), BOS

2B/OF Brendan Donovan, STL vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

OF Tyler Freeman, COL vs. Chase Burns (RHP), CIN

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Kyle Stowers, MIA vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

3B Isaac Paredes, HOU vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

OF Cam Smith, HOU vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

3B/SS Zach McKinstry, DET vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (RHP), HOU

1B Spencer Steer, CIN vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

3B Jordan Westburg, BAL vs. Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA

OF Nathan Lukes, TOR vs. Luis Severino (RHP), ATH

2B/3B Colt Keith, DET vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), SEA

1B Nathaniel Lowe, WAS vs. Quinn Priester (RHP), MIL

OF Jesus Sanchez, MIA vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

C Agustin Ramirez, MIA vs. Dean Kremer (RHP), BAL

OF Jurickson Profar, ATL vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

C Yainer Diaz, HOU vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

OF Mickey Moniak, COL vs. Chase Burns (RHP), CIN

OF Isaac Collins, MIL vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS

1B Christian Walker, HOU vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

3B Caleb Durbin, MIL vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS

SS Joey Ortiz, MIL vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS

1B Andrew Vaughn, MIL vs. Mitchell Parker (LHP), WAS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!