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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Following all of those huge slates this week, we get to dial it back a few notches with a comfortable seven-game Thursday main slate. Pitching on this slate may not be horrible, but it’s far from a strong suit. On the other hand, I believe we can expect plenty of offense today with 10 teams holding at least a 4.5 implied run total. The weather also looks fairly cooperative today, which is always a plus. Let’s see if we can crack the code today. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣7/10 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• SEA at NYY (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): A few sprinkles may fall here, but not much beyond that. Temps in the upper-70s with light winds IN from right.

• TB at BOS (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Mid-60s temps with light winds IN from left.

• CLE at CWS (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Rain should stay north of the ballpark, so there should not be much/any trouble expected here, but worth double-checking closer to first pitch to be sure.

• ATL at ATH (9:05 ET, 10.5 O/U): We’ve got a scorcher in Sacramento tonight. 100 degrees (!) at first pitch with 10 mph winds OUT to left. Temps will only “cool off” to the low-90s in the later innings. Needless to say, excellent hitting weather here.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.8k | at ATH

Strider will have to navigate through those extremely hitter-friendly weather conditions out in Sacramento tonight. If he can do that, he should come away as one of the better SP options on this slate. He’s still looking to regain his dominant 2023 form post-elbow surgery, but he has supplied five quality starts (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) within his last six outings. Across five starts over the last month, he has procured a 2.70 ERA, 2.57 xFIP, .204 opp AVG, 1.07 WHIP, and 32.2% kRate -- those are much closer to the Strider-esque numbers we’ve come accustomed to seeing out of him in previous seasons.

The A’s bring plenty of pop to the plate with a .218 ISO versus RHPs L2Weeks (400 PAs), which ranks 5th in MLB. But, in that same span, they haven’t been hitting for average (.235 AVG) and have struck out at the highest rate in baseball (27.3% kRate). It is going to be very tough for either starter to pitch a super clean game in this matchup tonight, given those 100-degree temps and 10 mph winds blowing out to left. But if we’re simply looking for strikeout upside, Strider should be able to supply plenty of Ks this evening.

Logan Allen (LHP), CLE | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.6k | at CWS

Allen has not had a great season to date (4.07 ERA, 4.69 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP, 17.9% kRate, 9.9% BB%), but he is rolling through his best five-game stretch of the season heading into tonight’s game. Over his last five starts (29.0 IP), Allen has come away with a respectable 3.41 ERA, 3.83 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP, and 21.7% kRate. He has never been a flamethrower, with an average fastball velo of 90.3 mph this season, but it is nice to see his kRate tick up closer to league average in that recent five-game stretch. Allen’s strength this season has stemmed from limiting hard hits (34.2% HardHit%, 87th percentile), and his 87.8 mph average exit velo places him in the top 83rd percentile of pitchers.

The White Sox have been one of the most targeted offenses this season when it comes to selecting pitchers in DFS. However, they haven’t been awful against left-handed pitching lately -- their 101 wRC+ vs. LHPs L30Days (258 PAs) places them smack-dab in the middle of MLB rankings at 15th. So they’ve been a truly average offense in that regard. But, at the same time, they have posted an MLB-high 33.3% kRate against LHPs over the last month. So, to reiterate, Logan Allen isn’t anything close to a strikeout machine, but his kRate has been climbing recently, and, from a strikeout standpoint, this is about the best matchup a pitcher could hope for. He may very well give up a handful of hits and a couple of runs tonight, but Allen also has a great shot at racking up 6-8 strikeouts along the way.

Jonathan Cannon (RHP), CWS | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.4k | vs. CLE

This is a total dart throw, but if you’re looking to load up on a ton of big bats, Cannon will make some amount of sense. There is no sugar-coating it… Cannon has not been great this year (4.50 ERA, 4.79 xFIP, 1.46 WHIP, 17.5% kRate). And he rolls in with a 6.55 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over his last five starts. But it is worth pointing out that, at home this season, Cannon has supplied some solid results: 3.38 ERA, 4.08 xFIP, and 24.8% kRate with an 87.2% Left-on-Base%. That could just be statistical noise, as he only has 21.0 IP at home this season, but I thought it was worth noting.

The real hope here is for Cannon to take advantage of a Guardians offense that has not been overly productive. In fact, against RHPs L2Weeks (259 PAs), they’re hitting for an MLB-worst .172 AVG alongside a .548 OPS and 51 wRC+, which also ranks dead last. We’ve seen Cannon pop for a couple of 20+ DKFP/35+ FDFP games this season, and, if there’s ever a time for him to hit a ceiling game, it’d probably be at home in this matchup versus the struggling Guardians bats.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Bryan Woo (RHP), SEA | DK: $10k, FD: $10.3k | at NYY

Michael Soroka (RHP), WAS | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.9k | at STL

Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), ARI | DK: $8k, FD: $8.7k | at SD

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Texas Rangers vs. Jack Kochanowicz (RHP), LAA

With another eight runs scored on ten hits yesterday, the Rangers put forth another strong offensive effort. Since the calendar flipped to July (eight games), Texas has easily been a top-10 offense against RHPs. In that stretch (241 PAs), they’re hitting .287 (ranks 7th) with an .834 OPS (6th), .361 wOBA (6th), 134 wRC+ (6th), and 16.6% kRate (3rd lowest). They’ve also stolen 10 bases in those eight games. The entire lineup isn’t clicking top-to-bottom, but a handful of these Rangers bats have been highly productive.

Outside of a surprisingly solid start against the Yankees on the road a few weeks ago, Kochanowicz has not been great at shutting down opposing offenses. Since June 1st (7 GS, 31.0 IP), Kochanowicz has come away with a 6.10 ERA, 4.55 xFIP, 1.61 WHIP, .311 opp AVG, .389 opp wOBA, 2.0 HR/9 Rate, and 16.2% kRate. Walks have also been an issue for him in that span (9.6% BB%). After starter Kyle Hendricks went only 3.2 IP yesterday, the Angels had to empty their bullpen as they used seven different relievers to finish out that game. Some of those bullpen arms didn’t throw many pitches and will still be available tonight, but the main point to make here is that an already bad Angels’ bullpen isn’t going to be at full strength tonight. So, look for some more production out of these Rangers hitters this evening, especially if they can drive Kochanowicz’s pitch count up early.

Favorite TEX Bats: Corey Seager, Josh Smith, Marcus Semien

Bargain Bats: Wyatt Langford, Adolis Garcia

Seattle Mariners vs. Marcus Stroman (RHP), NYY

Marcus Stroman is certainly not the pitcher he used to be, and he has been thoroughly unimpressive in his five starts this season -- 7.45 ERA, 5.15 xFIP, 1.66 WHIP, and 13.5% kRate. Stroman hasn’t thrown more than five innings and 81 pitches in a game thus far, so the Yankees will likely be digging into their bullpen by the 6th inning, if not sooner. The NYY bullpen has put up an MLB-worst 8.14 ERA over the last two weeks to go along with a 1.62 WHIP and 2.14 HR/9 Rate, so they’ve been a point of weakness during the general slump that New York has been on over the last month.

The Mariners’ offense has been markedly better on the road this season, which is very logical as their home ballpark is among the most pitcher-friendly venues in baseball. They’ve averaged 5.02 runs/gm on the road versus 4.13 runs/gm at home. They’ve also been strong against RHPs with a 119 wRC+ over the last month (ranks 6th in MLB). Marcus Stroman has thrown his sinker (38.2% USG%) more than any other pitch this season. That sets up mighty well for the Mariners, considering they’re 2nd in MLB in batting average (.328) and 1st in wOBA (.404) against RHP sinkers this season. Mix that factor with a struggling Yankees bullpen, and we should see plenty of offense by the Mariners’ lineup tonight.

Favorite SEA Bats: Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez

Bargain Bats: Jorge Polanco, JP Crawford, Luke Raley

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland Athletics vs. Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL

Every hitter in the projected A’s lineup has a ≤ 10% pOwn%. Strider is going to be one of the highest owned, or possibly THE highest-owned pitcher, on this slate and has a 30+% pOwn% on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The Braves offense also has six players at 21+% pOwn%, so there is quite a bit of leverage to be had by jumping to the other side of this game and putting together an A’s stack.

As mentioned in the Strider spotlight, the A’s may not be hitting for average, and they’re striking out a ton, but they’re putting plenty of charges into baseballs with a .218 ISO vs. RHPs L2Weeks (ranks 6th) and they’re also 1st with a 19.8% HR/FB Rate in that same sample size. You can’t get much better home run hitting conditions than the ones that will be present at Sutter Health Park (No. 2 most hitter-friendly ballpark) this evening with 100-degree temps and 10 mph winds blowing out to left. If Strider gets forced into a high pitch count inning or two, it’s going to sap a lot of energy being out there on the mound in that kind of heat. It wouldn’t be a surprise if either team smacks multiple HRs over the fence in this game, yet the A’s side of things will check in with far less ownership than the Braves. The only knock here, aside from Strider being close to vintage form, is that Atlanta still has a pretty fresh bullpen with most of their top relievers well-rested and available to pitch tonight.

Favorite A’s Bats: Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler

Bargain Bat: Max Muncy

Unfortunately, I’m a little short on time today, so I have to skip the one-off & bargain bats lists. Those will return tomorrow for the big Friday night slate!

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!