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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

The calendar flips over to July, and we’ll have a loaded 10-game main slate on tap, which is pretty tame by Tuesday standards. Pitching isn’t too deep today, but there is a solid cluster of arms to choose from. Several offenses will set up as viable stack targets, and there are a handful of games with 9.0+ run over/unders. Coors Field is also back on the menu with the Astros visiting the Rockies. The weather seems to be a headache in several game locations today, so be prepared to set aside a little extra time before lock to cover the bases there. There is much to dig into today, so let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Also, happy Bobby Bonilla Day!

Update: The MIL at NYM game has been postponed, so we are down to nine games.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣7/1 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• ATH at TB (7:05 ET, 9.0 O/U): As is often the case in Tampa this time of year, there will be scattered showers and storms around. There is a better chance that this game will play without any problems, but there will still be some delay risk. Worth a pre-game radar check. Temps will be in the mid-80s with 5-10 mph winds OUT to center; nice hitting conditions.

• CIN at BOS (7:10 ET, 10.0 O/U): Looking dry to start with scattered/pop-up storms moving in a little later in the evening. Perhaps the ballpark can dodge those storms, but it’ll take a little luck, and there is some definite PPD risk. Temps around 80 degrees with 5-10 mph winds OUT to left.

• MIL at NYM (7:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Postponed in New York.

• LAA at ATL (7:15 ET, 9.5 O/U): Sparsely scattered showers and storms in the general area with a line of storms potentially moving in later in the night, likely after the game is finished. As long as a storm doesn’t make its way over the ballpark early and spark a lengthy delay, I believe they’ll be fine here. But, as usual, we’ll have a better idea of how things will shake out closer to first pitch. 80 degrees with light winds IN from right.

• HOU at COL (8:40 ET, 11.5 O/U): Juuuust enough rain around in the general area early to make a late start a low-end possibility. No issues beyond that. Nearly 90 degrees to start and 80+ degrees for the entire game with 5-10 mph winds OUT to right/center. Great hitting weather in an already excellent hitter’s ballpark.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP), LAD | DK: $10.8k, FD: $10.8k | vs. CWS

After a dominant start to the season, Yamamoto has faltered in a few of his more recent outings. Despite that, he is still rocking a 2.61 ERA, 3.07 xFIP, 1.05 WHIP, and 28.4% kRate across 16 starts this season. His 54.3% Groundball% is also the 6th highest among qualified MLB starters this season. Yamamoto’s home splits have been noticeably worse than his road numbers, but it has really only been his last three home starts that are ballooning his numbers -- he was perfectly effective at home before that. I’m willing to bank on a strong home performance tonight with the massively favored Dodgers (-362 ML) welcoming the White Sox into LA.

The White Sox have been the worst road offense in baseball this season, averaging just 2.95 runs/gm. Against RHPs on the road over the last month, they’ve hit for a paltry .191 AVG, .540 OPS, .243 wOBA, .094 ISO, and 52 wRC+ with a lofty 28.5% kRate. I don’t believe we have to get too deep here. As long as Yamamoto sheds the recent downward trend at home, he should be able to cruise in this matchup.

Matthew Boyd (LHP), CHC | DK: $9k, FD: $9.4k | vs. CLE

Rolling out lefty pitchers against the Guardians has been a profitable approach for a hot minute now, and we have a quality lefty taking the mound against them today. The 34-year-old Matthew Boyd is having arguably the best season of his career as he heads into start No. 17 with a 2.65 ERA, 4.00 xFIP, 1.10 WHIP, 22.3% kRate, and 5.7% BB%. Those numbers may not blow you away, but Boyd has simply been a rock-solid starter who has cashed in a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) in 11 of his 16 starts this year. He’s also been better overall at home -- here’s a quick rundown on his home/road splits:

Home: 41.0 IP, 2.41 ERA, 3.32 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP, .212 opp AVG, 26.5% kRate, 3.2% BB%

Away: 50.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 4.56 xFIP, 1.28 WHIP, .257 opp AVG, 19.2% kRate, 7.5% BB%

That’s not a huge difference in the ERA, but Boyd’s numbers are significantly improved in every other category at home. And, for DFS purposes, we’re most interested in the sizable uptick in his kRate.

The recent results for the Guardians against LHPs have not been good whatsoever, and they’ve been particularly bad on the road. Against LHPs on the road L30Days (164 PAs), Cleveland owns a .184 AVG, .503 OPS, .222 wOBA, .086 ISO, 38 wRC+, and 25.6% kRate. There simply aren’t many guys in this Guardians lineup who are having good years at the plate against LHPs. So, we’ll expect another strong showing from Boyd in this spot, and the Cubs (-192 ML) check in as the third-heaviest favored team on the slate.

Colton Gordon (LHP), HOU | DK: $7k, FD: $8.6k | at COL

There is not much to like about the value pitching on this slate, so we’ll go to Coors Field to roll the dice on Colton Gordon. This is much more of a DraftKings SP2 play based on his $7,000 salary. On FanDuel, you’ll probably be better off finding the extra $500 or so to get up to guys like Grant Holmes, Shane Baz, or the aforementioned Matthew Boyd, if you’re not looking to pay top dollar for a pitcher.

That said, rookie Colton Gordon has put up some very serviceable numbers across his first eight career starts. He owns a respectable 3.98 ERA, 3.46 xFIP, 22.0% kRate, and 2.9% BB% in those starts. The minuscule walk rate is the most impressive figure there, but a sub-3.50 xFIP is a great indicator that Gordon has pitched very well… even better than his ERA would indicate.

The Rockies’ offense has been less of a pushover over the last several weeks, but they still haven’t mashed lefties, even at home in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. Against LHPs at home L30Days (123 PAs), the Rockies own a .227 AVG, .693 OPS, 66 wRC+, and 26.0% kRate. You can never count on any pitcher throwing a super clean game at Coors, but Gordon is a decent bet to have a successful five or six-inning outing tonight with a handful of strikeouts along the way. The Astros are also -158 ML favorites today, so Gordon could also pick up his fourth MLB win today.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Jacob deGrom (RHP), TEX | DK: $10.3k, FD: $11k | vs. BAL

Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.1k | vs. LAA (Monitor weather!)

Shane Baz (RHP), TB | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.1k | vs. ATH (Monitor weather!)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Obligatory Coors Field Stacks

Houston Astros vs. Chase Dollander (RHP), COL

Colorado Rockies vs. Colton Gordon (LHP), HOU

Non-Coors Stacks

Chicago Cubs vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

The Cubbies return home from a seven-game road trip and are in some fine form against right-handed pitching. Versus RHPs L2Weeks, the Cubs are 1st in OPS (.905), wOBA (.389), ISO (.275), and wRC+ (153) while striking out at a low 17.9% clip (4th lowest in that span).

They’ll draw a matchup with Gavin Williams this evening. Williams has managed to pitch to a respectable 3.31 ERA over his last six starts, but he has been very fortunate to maintain that low of an ERA due to owning a poor 5.14 xFIP in that same span. He’s been very lucky in the BABIP department (.204 opp BABIP L6Games), and his 13.5% BB% is nearly even with his 16.3% kRate in that stretch. If the Cubs can get Williams’ pitch count up quickly, they’ll get some extra at-bats against a Cleveland bullpen that heads in with a 6.17 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, and .301 opp AVG over the last two weeks. It also seems as if this Cubs stack is going to go under the radar -- Kyle Tucker has the highest projected ownership at 9% and everyone else in the lineup is under 5% pOwn%.

Favorite CHC Bats: Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch

Bargain Bat: Matt Shaw

Cincinnati Reds vs. Richard Fitts (RHP), BOS

The Reds had a nice little mid-June stretch where they were one of the best offenses in baseball against righty pitching. They’ve regressed a bit over the last couple of weeks, but still rank top 10 in wOBA vs. RHPs L30Days, and they’ll land in a nice spot today. As long as they manage to dodge some storms in Boston this evening, there will be some nice hitting conditions at Fenway with warm temps and 5-10 mph winds blowing out to left toward the Green Monster.

Richard Fitts heads into his seventh start of the season with a slate-worst 5.87 xERA and 22.6% HR/FB Rate. After debuting late last season, this will only be his fifth career start at home in Fenway Park, but over those previous four starts at home, Fitts has recorded a 5.24 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP, .296 opp AVG, and 1.53 HR/9 Rate. The Red Sox bullpen has also put up the 9th-worst WHIP (1.48) over the last two weeks. Again, keep an eye on the weather here, but the Reds could be a nice upside stack to target in a game that carries a double-digit over/under.

Favorite CIN Bats: Elly De La Cruz, Austin Hays, Matt McLain

Bargain Bat: Spencer Steer

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), KC

I was thinking of throwing the Brewers a spotlight as a low-owned stack target, but weather is scaring me off of that game at the moment (update: yep, that game just got postponed). So, we’ll go to the West Coast where weather is of no concern and spotlight the Mariners once again -- every hitter in the projected Seattle lineup has a ≤ 10% pOwn%. Against RHPs L2Weeks, the Mariners are top-10 in AVG, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. They’re also striking out at just an 18.4% rate in that stretch.

Since May 26th (6 GS, 30.2 IP), Michael Lorenzen has struggled to a 7.04 ERA, 5.01 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, .290 opp AVG, .381 opp wOBA, 2.10 HR/9 Rate, and 16.7% kRate. He’s just not getting many Ks and is giving up a ton of power and extra-base hits. Looking at Lorenzen’s statcast data over the last month, he is bottom 10th percentile in average batted ball distance (203.5 feet) and bottom 20th percentile in barreled balls allowed (7). He has also allowed a high 29.1% LineDrive% L30Days and a 90.6 mph average exit velo. The Royals do have a fairly solid bullpen, but if the Mariners do enough damage to Lorenzen early, they may not face the best BP arms.

Favorite SEA Bats: Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez

Bargain Bat: Dominic Canzone/Luke Raley

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

Reminder: There are multiple games where weather will be a concern. Keep an eye on those games (mentioned in the weather section above) before locking in any hitters/stacks/pitchers today!

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Shane Smith (RHP), CWS

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), KC

OF Kyle Tucker, CHC vs. Gavin Williams (RHP), CLE

2B Ketel Marte, ARI vs. Hayden Birdsong (RHP), SF

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Richard Fitts (RHP), BOS

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), CHC

SS Bobby Witt Jr., vs. Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA

3B Rafael Devers, SF vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

2B Jose Altuve, HOU vs. Chase Dollander (RHP), COL

1B Matt Olson, ATL vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

OF Jarren Duran, BOS vs. Brady Singer (RHP), CIN

1B Yandy Diaz, TB vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

OF Jordan Beck, COL vs. Colton Gordon (LHP), HOU

1B/SS Josh Smith, TEX vs. Brandon Young (RHP), BAL

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. Brandon Young (RHP), BAL

2B Matt McLain, CIN vs. Richard Fitts (RHP), BOS

C Drake Baldwin, ATL vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), LAA

OF Jo Adell, LAA vs. Grant Holmes (RHP), ATL

OF Roman Anthony, BOS vs. Brady Singer (RHP), CIN

OF Dominic Canzone, SEA vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), KC

SS Trevor Story, BOS vs. Brady Singer (RHP), CIN

1B/OF Luke Raley, SEA vs. Michael Lorenzen (RHP), KC

2B Marcus Semien, TEX vs. Brandon Young (RHP), BAL

1B/OF Spencer Steer, CIN vs. Richard Fitts (RHP), BOS

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!