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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We get a hefty nine-game main slate to kick things off this week! And, keep in mind, this slate will begin at 6:40 ET. From a pure baseball standpoint, there is a slew of even matchups today -- the heaviest favorite on the slate (D-Backs) owning -172 ML odds. The slate features a decent batch of pitchers, along with a fairly solid selection of hitters and stacks that appear to be in quality spots. Outside of MIA/PIT, there aren’t any significant weather concerns as well. Let’s start this week off right with a profitable night! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣6/9 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• MIA at PIT (6:40 ET, 8.0 O/U): The one trouble spot on the slate. Currently, this game looks as if it should start dry, however, a large band of storms looks to move in sometime during the middle/later innings. An in-game delay looks like a strong possibility here and a PPD cannot be ruled out either. Right now, batters seem safer than pitchers. But this will 100% require a second look at the radar/forecast once we closer to first pitch. Fortunately, this is the earliest game on the slate, so if things don’t look great, we can pivot away. For now, I’ll be keeping players from this game in play.

• CIN at CLE (6:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): Upper-60s temps with 10 mph winds OUT to center.

• TB at BOS (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Mid-50s with 10 mph winds IN from center.

• TOR at STL (7:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): Around 80 degrees to start with 10 mph winds, mostly left-to-right, a bit OUT to right.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $10k, FD: $10.5k | at MIL

Sale continues to pitch his tail off and had yet another elite performance against the D-Backs last Wednesday (6.0 IP, 3 H, 4 BB, 1 ER, 10 K on 103 pitches). Dating back to April 30th (7 GS, 45.1 IP), Sale has pitched to a phenomenal 1.39 ERA, 2.79 xFIP, .201 opp AVG, 1.01 WHIP, 33.5% kRate, and 7.8% BB%. He has allowed just a 19.8% HardContact% in that span as well. The Chris Sale slider, which is his go-to pitch at a 48.8% USG%, continues to be among the best pitches in baseball. That slider has led to a .153 opp AVG and 41.8% Whiff%, and Sale ranks at the peak (100th percentile) among MLB pitchers in breaking ball run value.

The matchup is a little tricky here as the Brewers have been hitting lefties well lately -- they rank 4th in MLB in OPS (.855), wOBA (.372), and wRC+ (138) against LHPs L2Weeks (164 plate appearances). However, their 24.4% kRate in that span has been above average. Also, when looking at what Milwaukee has done against LHP sliders this season, we’ll find that they own just a .196 AVG, .230 wOBA, .039 ISO, 83.7 mph avg exit velo, 35.7% Whiff%, and 31.3% kRate. So, as long as Sale doesn’t give up much damage with his fastball, this should be another strong outing for him. But, as mentioned last week in the Sale spotlight, don’t expect much run support from this struggling Braves offense. Atlanta has averaged just 3.0 runs/gm in Sale’s last seven starts, and that includes a nine-run performance versus the Phillies a couple of weeks ago.

Matthew Boyd (LHP), CHC | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.9k | at PHI

The Phillies may be the only “generally good” offense that is struggling more than the Braves right now. They are 1-9 over their last 10 games and, in that span versus LHPs (145 PAs), they’re batting .160 with a .501 OPS, .231 wOBA, .099 ISO, 43 wRC+, and 24.1% kRate… ugly stuff. Bryce Harper was also placed on the 10-day IL with a wrist injury on Saturday, which, of course, takes an important and dangerous bat out of an already struggling lineup.

Meanwhile, outside of a dud against the Reds on May 23rd, Matthew Boyd has been pitching very well. Excluding the Cincy dud, Boyd has pitched to a 2.59 ERA, 2.88 xFIP, 0.77 WHIP, 31.9% kRate, and an incredible 0.9% BB% across his other five previous outings, which have also all been quality starts (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER). In that sample size, which spans 31.1 IP, Boyd has boasted a 37:1 K:BB ratio. There are only two knocks I can point to concerning Boyd today. One, he has allowed quite a few barreled balls with seven barrels L30Days (bottom 20th percentile). Two, his counterpart is Zack Wheeler tonight, which means that it’s going to be a taller order than usual when it comes to picking up the win bonus. The Phillies’ offense also won’t stay down for long but Boyd is a rock-solid lefty hurler so we’ll look for their offensive woes to continue for at least one more night.

Luis Ortiz (RHP), CLE | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.2k | vs. CIN

Several intriguing SP options in lower price ranges have some strong potential today. Eury Perez (DK: $7k, FD: $7.5k) might be my favorite option as he makes his MLB return against a bad Pirates offense. Perez, who was once a top-five MLB prospect, hasn’t pitched in the bigs since 2023 due to undergoing Tommy John surgery, but he has looked really strong in his rehab outings (8 GS, 22.2 IP, 1.99 ERA, 4.25 xFIP, .188 opp AVG, 28.4% kRate). However, the potential for a middle-inning weather delay (or outright PPD) in that game adds some risk to rolling him out… hopefully the forecast improves closer to first pitch.

So we’ll switch over to Luis Ortiz as our value SP spotlight. He isn’t particularly cheap on FanDuel, though I still believe he could be in play there. His $7,500 price tag on DraftKings will, however, make him a go-to SP2 candidate. While he has been a bit volatile this season and has allowed a concerningly high 49.1% HardHit% with a 93.0 mph average exit velo, there has still been plenty to like about Ortiz’s 2025 form. That is particularly true when he’s pitching at home. Here is a quick rundown on his home/road splits this season:

Home: 28.1 IP, 2.22 ERA, 2.90 xFIP, .196 opp AVG, 1.16 WHIP, 32.2% kRate

Road: 36.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 4.18 xFIP, .266 opp AVG, 1.58 WHIP, 20.7% kRate

So, there are some pretty obvious huge improvements across the board when Ortiz is pitching on his home mound.

The matchup is just “okay” as the Reds check in with average/above-average metrics against RHPs, both on the entire season and across more recent sample sizes. Ortiz’s top four pitches include all three fastball variants (four-seamer, cutter, sinker) as well as a slider, which is his primary wipeout pitch and has produced a 40.7% Whiff% this season. Against that four-pitch mix, the Reds do own the 6th highest Whiff% (23.6%) and 5th lowest average exit velocity (89.1 mph), which could bode well for Ortiz considering that a high opponent exit velo has been one of his main downfalls. The Guardians (-168 ML) are also the second-heaviest favorites on a slate that does not feature many strongly-favored teams. We’ll wrap all of this up by saying “Ortiz is a solid option today, primarily when searching for an SP2 on DraftKings”.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $10.5k, FD: $10.8k | vs. CHC

Nick Pivetta (RHP), SD | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.1k | vs. LAD (Low-owned pivot off of Wheeler/Sale)

Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.6k | vs. SEA

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.2k | vs. ATH

Eury Perez (RHP), MIA | DK: $7k, FD: $7.5k | at PIT (Monitor weather!)

Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.3k | at LAA

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA

The D-Backs are the only team on the slate with a 5.0+ implied run total so we can expect some high ownership on some of these bats. Regardless, it’s an excellent spot versus RHP Emerson Hancock, who has been steadily underwhelming this season (5.19 ERA, 5.19 xERA, 1.47 WHIP, 17.5% kRate, and 1.61 HR/9 Rate). The D-Backs rank 4th in OPS (.809) and wRC+ (126) against RHPs L30Days.

They also match up well against Hancock’s primary pitch mix which consists of sinker, changeup, and four-seamer. Against those three pitches (from RHPs), the D-Backs are 2nd in MLB with a .369 wOBA, 1st with a .235 ISO, and they have posted the 6th lowest Whiff% (18.9%). A typically-solid Mariners’ bullpen has also struggled over the last two weeks. In that span, they’ve recorded a 5.23 ERA (5th worst), 4.55 xFIP (4th worst), 1.52 WHIP (4th worst), and .276 opp AVG (3rd worst). So there is much to like about the upside of a D-Backs stack this evening.

Favorite ARI Bats: Ketel Marte, Eugenio Suarez, Corbin Carroll

Bargain Bat: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (and/or Gabriel Moreno if he’s in the lineup)

Tampa Bay Rays (LHBs Preferred) vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

It’s not a large sample size, but the Rays have been sneaky good, perhaps even sneaky ELITE, when facing RHPs on the road lately. Against RHPs on the road L2Weeks (84 PAs), the Rays are 1st in OPS (.936), wOBA (.409), and wRC+ (168). The Rays’ lefty bats should get some preferrential treatment here as Brayan Bello has had some noticable traditional splits. He’s been fairly decent versus RHBs (3.69 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, .310 opp wOBA, 19.8% kRate) but hasn’t had the best results versus LHBs (5.22 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, .382 opp wOBA, 12.9% kRate). Bello has averaged 21.5% less FPPG at home and is bottom 20th percentile in barreled balls allowed L30Days. The Rays also have some excellent BvP history going here -- in 94 PAs versus Bello, the current Rays’ roster owns a .357 AVG and .400 wOBA.

Fenway Park has ranked as the #5 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season (#3 ballpark for LHBs) and, though the weather conditions are not ideal for home runs tonight, there could still be plenty of extra-base hits to be had. The Red Sox bullpen has been solid lately but they have combined for 204 pitches over the last three days in their rivalry series against the Yankees, and seven relievers were used in last night’s Sunday Night Baseball game, so bullpen fatigue could be a factor here with multiple top BOS relievers possibly unavailable to pitch tonight. Finally, there are hitters in the projected Rays’ lineup with higher than a 5% pOwn%, so this is looking like an interesting under-the-radar stack as well.

Favorite TB Bats: Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe, Jonathan Aranda

Bargain Bat: Jake Mangum/Jose Caballero

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

Every hitter in the projected Mariners’ lineup has a ≤ 11% pOwn% with eight hitters under 7% pOwn%. Merrill Kelly has been pitching pretty well of late and could be among the higher-owned arms on this slate, so there is some real leverage to be had by stacking some SEA bats against him. The Mariners’ offense has been notably more dangerous on the road (100 wRC+ at home, ranks 19th -- 117 wRC+ away, ranks 3rd). Their runs/gm average goes from 4.08 at home to 4.81 on the road, making them the #8 road offense in MLB. Chase Field has also been the #6 most hitter-friendly ballpark this season.

As mentioned, Merrill Kelly has been on a bit of a roll lately, posting a 2.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 31.7% kRate over his last five starts. However, he averages 20.3% less FPPG at home, he’s bottom 20th percentile in average exit velo L30Days (91.1 mph), and has allowed eight barreled balls in that span as well (bottom 15th percentile). The D-Backs have also had a bottom-five bullpen this season, so the quicker the Mariners can knock Merrill off the mound, the better.

Favorite SEA Bats: Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, JP Crawford

Bargain Bat: Rowdy Tellez/Cole Young

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), SD

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Luis Ortiz (RHP), CLE

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), MIL

OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI

SS Trea Turner, PHI vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), CHC

2B Ketel Marte, ARI vs. Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA

OF Oneil Cruz, PIT vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Wade Miley (LHP), CIN

SS Zach Neto, LAA vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

3B Rafael Devers, BOS vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB

OF Brent Rooker, ATH vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL vs. Chris Sale (LHP), ATL

2B Brandon Lowe, TB vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

3B Manny Machado, SD vs. Dustin May (RHP), LAD

2B Brendan Donovan, STL vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

2B/SS Xavier Edwards, MIA vs. Mike Burrows (RHP), PIT

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

3B Max Muncy, LAD vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

SS Otto Lopez, MIA vs. Mike Burrows (RHP), PIT

1B Willson Contreras, STL vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

SS JP Crawford, SEA vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., ARI vs. Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA

OF Jesus Sanchez, MIA vs. Mike Burrows (RHP), PIT

SS Trevor Story, BOS vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB

3B/OF Addison Barger, TOR vs. Andre Pallante (RHP), STL

1B/3B Abraham Toro, BOS vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB

1B/OF Alex Burleson, STL vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

OF Jo Adell, LAA vs. Jeffrey Springs (LHP), ATH

OF Lane Thomas, CLE vs. Wade Miley (LHP), CIN

1B/C David Fry, CLE vs. Wade Miley (LHP), CIN

1B/C Liam Hicks, MIA vs. Mike Burrows (RHP), PIT

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

Matthew Boyd MORE than 17.5 Pitching Outs

Eugenio Suarez MORE than 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!