Top MLB DFS Plays & Props 6/5 | Thursday Mini-Slate Quick Hits! ⚾

Thursday, June 5th ⚾️ DFS Plays & Props for Today's MLB Action

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Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter/X and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

There is more baseball action than usual for a Thursday with 13 total games on the schedule. However, only five games will be scheduled with a later start time. The DraftKings main slate will include all five of those games, while FanDuel will exclude the KC/STL game, as it is part of a doubleheader, reducing their main slate to four games. It’s not a bad little slate at all -- we’ve got a few good arms on the mound and several offenses in solid spots as well. We’ll run down a “quick hit” type of newsletter, keeping things relatively short and sweet. If smaller slates aren’t your thing, you only have to wait 24 hours for the Friday monster slate to roll around! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣6/5 Dinger Report💣

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

  • HOU at PIT (6:40 ET, 7.5 O/U): There are some scattered storms around Pittsburgh this evening. The coverage isn’t very impressive but there is at least a moderate chance of a late start or in-game delay. Pitchers currently have a little added risk due to in-game delay potential but the bats should be safe. Run a pre-game radar check to get a better idea of how things will play out here.

  • CHC at WAS (6:45 ET, 9.5 O/U): Temps in the 80s with 10 mph winds OUT to left/center. Nice hitting conditions.

  • CLE at NYY (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Mid-80s to start with light winds, mostly OUT to left, a bit right-to-left.

  • TEX at TB (7:35 ET, 8.5 O/U): Much less rain in the general area than we’ve seen the last couple of days down in Tampa. There are still storms around, but they should mostly hold to the north, though a late start isn’t out of the realm of possibilities. As usual, just keep an eye on things here since Florida weather can change quickly, but they should be good to go tonight. More temps in the 80s with 5-10 mph winds OUT to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Fried (LHP), NYY | DK: $10k, FD: $10.1k | vs. CLE

Fried is coming off of what was easily his worst outing of the season last Friday where he surrendered six runs on eight hits, including two homers, to the Dodgers in L.A. He’ll land in a solid bounceback spot at home where he owns a 1.69 ERA and .184 opp AVG this season. After losing in a 4-0 shutout yesterday, these Yankees bats should be motivated to get rolling again and they’re slate-leading -285 ML favorites.

The Guardians have had issues versus lefty pitching of late. Across 138 PAs vs. LHPs L2Weeks, they’re hitting for a meager .202 AVG with a .525 OPS, .239 wOBA, .070 ISO, 52 wRC+, while posting a lofty 29.0% kRate. Expect good things out of Fried in this one.

 

Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB | DK: $6.8k, FD: $9k | vs. TEX

It’s nothing flashy but Pepiot has been fairly solid this season and heads into tonight with some nice recent form. Over his last five starts, Pepiot has pitched to a 1.99 ERA, 4.08 xFIP, .194 opp AVG, 0.85 WHIP, 18.3% kRate, and 5.2% BB%. The kRate certainly isn’t impressive and the 4+ xFIP suggests Pepiot has been pitching above his head, but he has generally found ways to get guys out while also pitching at least 6.0 IP in all five of those starts.

We’ll love the matchup for Pepiot as the Rangers have had little success against righty pitching this season, particularly of late. Across 330 PAs vs. RHPs L2Weeks, the Rangers own a .191 AVG, .540 OPS, .243 wOBA, .094 ISO, 52 wRC+, and 23.9% kRate. Also, if we look at Pepiot’s primary pitch mix, which features the four-seamer (43.7% USG%), changeup (23.5%), and slider (22.8%), we’ll find the Rangers ranking dead last in MLB with a .195 AVG and .264 wOBA versus that pitch mix. AT $9,000 on FanDuel, it may be worth finding the extra salary to get up to Max Fried ($10.1k) or Framber Valdez ($10.3k). But, at $6,800 on DraftKings, Pepiot makes plenty of sense as a small slate SP2 option.

 

Other Pitchers to Consider

Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.3k | at PIT (Monitor weather!)

DraftKings Main Slate Only

Cole Ragans (LHP), KC | DK: $9k, FD: N/A | at STL

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees vs. Slade Cecconi (RHP), CLE

Despite laying a goose egg on the scoreboard yesterday, the Yankees are going to stand out as one of the top teams to stack on this small slate. Slade Cecconi will be making just his fourth start of the season and, though his first two outings went fairly well, the Angels were able to beat him up for five runs on seven hits, including three homers, across 4.1 IP this past Saturday. The strikeouts have been there for Cecconi (25.4% kRate, 14.0% SwStr%) but he otherwise owns a poor 5.28 ERA and an even worse 6.61 xERA alongside a 1.43 WHIP. He’s given up five homers already in his 15.1 IP, resulting in a 2.93 HR/9 Rate, and has allowed a huge 17.8% Barrel% and 92.1 mph average exit velo (bottom 10th percentile). Despite some middling offensive performances lately, the Yankees still check in as the #3 home offense in MLB, averaging 5.31 runs/gm, and they’re 3rd in MLB with a .213 ISO vs. RHPs at home as well. They may not string together a ton of hits, but I believe we’ll see multiple homers out of this Yankees lineup today.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Ben Rice

Bargain Bat: Jasson Dominguez

 

Chicago Cubs vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

The Cubbies should be another popular stack target today and are second only to the aforementioned Yankees (5.2 implied runs) with a 5.1 implied run total. Jake Irvin’s 3.93 ERA is backed up by a worse 4.57 xFIP and 5.09 xERA, and he has not generated much swing-and-miss with a slate-worst 15.6% kRate and 6.9% SwStr%. Irvin has also been getting barreled constantly and his 11 barreled balls allowed L30Days place him in the bottom 5th percentile of pitchers.

The Cubs happen to be the #1 road offense in MLB, averaging 6.03 runs/gm, and after missing a couple of games with a finger injury, they have Kyle Tucker back in the mix today as well. Against RHPs on the road L2Weeks (113 PAs), the Cubs have posted a .300 AVG, .925 OPS, .388 wOBA, .280 ISO, and 150 wRC+. They’re also 3rd in MLB with 17 stolen bases L2Weeks. We should see some extra-base hits, some aggressive baserunning, and likely at least a couple of homers out of this Cubs lineup this evening. Washington will also feature arguably the best hitting conditions of the slate with temps in the 80s and 10 mph winds blowing out to left/center field.

Favorite CHC Bats: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker, Michael Busch

Bargain Bat: Matt Shaw

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cleveland Guardians vs. Max Fried (LHP), NYY

The easiest way to gain leverage on a small slate is to stack against the most popular pitcher. It’s not revolutionary, but Fried does have a 40+% pOwn%, and, as a result, most Guardians bats will fall in under 10% pOwn%. As mentioned in the Fried spotlight above, Cleveland has been pretty miserable versus LHPs of late, but perhaps they do some damage against Fried and surge later in the game once they get into the Yankees’ bullpen, which has not been great. Over the L2Weeks, the Yankees’ bullpen has wound up with a 4.85 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, .290 opp AVG, and a 2.08 HR/9 Rate. Even a small two or three-man mini Cleveland stack would go a long way in “getting different” from the field in GPPs.

Favorite CLE Bats: Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, Angel Martinez

Bargain Bat: David Fry

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Slade Cecconi (RHP), CLE

OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

OF Oneil Cruz, PIT vs. Framber Valdez (LHP), HOU

OF James Wood, WAS vs. Drew Pomeranz (LHP)/Colin Rea (RHP), CHC

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Max Fried (LHP), NYY

2B Brandon Lowe, TB vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX vs. Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB

SS Jeremy Pena, HOU vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

DraftKings Main Slate Only

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

1B Willson Contreras, STL vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), KC

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

OF Jasson Dominguez, NYY vs. Slade Cecconi (RHP), CLE

2B Luis Garcia Jr., WAS vs. Drew Pomeranz (LHP)/Colin Rea (RHP), CHC

1B Yandy Diaz, TB vs. Jack Leiter (RHP), TEX

1B Christian Walker, HOU vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

2B/3B Amed Rosario, WAS vs. Drew Pomeranz (LHP)/Colin Rea (RHP), CHC

3B Matt Shaw, CHC vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

1B/C David Fry, CLE vs. Max Fried (LHP), NYY

 

DraftKings Main Slate Only

SS Masyn Winn, STL vs. Cole Ragans (LHP), KC

1B/OF Jac Caglione, KC vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

2B Jonathan India, KC vs. Matthew Liberatore (LHP), STL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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No HR Calls contest today. Back at it tomorrow!

Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

Ryan Pepiot MORE than 29.5 Pitcher Fantasy Score

Michael Busch MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!

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