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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

We get a larger-than-usual humpday main slate with 10 games on the docket! Things are pretty well-balanced between pitching and hitting today. While the slate is not littered with aces, there are plenty of pitchers who either carry some great form into this evening or draw an advantageous matchup. On the offensive end, we should see several teams breakthrough at the plate today. There are a couple of double-digit over/under games and only two matchups with an O/U below eight runs. There will also be two key game locations to keep an eye on as far as weather is concerned -- TEX at TB and KC at STL. Here’s to a big midweek slate for the LineStar crew! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣6/3 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• ARI at ATL (7:15 ET, 7.5 O/U): There is a sizable batch of rain moving through ATL this afternoon. Things should be clearing up around first pitch but don’t be surprised if a late start is implemented in case the wet weather lingers a bit into the early evening hours. Unless there is a major forecast change, a PPD is unlikely.

• TEX at TB (7:35 ET, 8.5 O/U): If yesterday was any indication, games down in Tampa Bay are going to provide quite a few headaches on the weather front. The forecast did not look promising yesterday, then it cleared up rather unexpectedly, then they had to implement the shortest in-game rain delay you’ll ever see (it lasted about 10-15 minutes), and they went on to complete a full nine innings. There will be a similarly tricky outlook today. Rain is around the area but currently looks to clear up the closer we get to first pitch. Whether it stays that way is TBD, but for now, we’ll assume they can play tonight, perhaps with another random in-game delay needed. As will be the case for the rest of the season for TB home games, the best course of action is to simply check the forecast around 7:00 ET as weather can, and will, turn on a dime in Florida. Assuming they play, temps will be in the upper-70s with ~10 mph winds mostly OUT to left.

• KC at STL (7:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): Another tricky forecast here. Most of the rain has already cleared St. Louis but some nasty storms are firing off upstream and could cause issues into the evening. If they get lucky, I could see the game getting played, but some sort of delay seems fairly likely. A PPD in favor of a doubleheader tomorrow is firmly on the table, so we’ll need to keep a close eye on more up-to-date forecasts here as well.

• MIN at ATH (10:05 ET, 10.0 O/U): Excellent hitting conditions in Sacramento once again. Temps around 90 degrees to start, and mid-80s for much of the evening, with 15 mph winds OUT to left. Clear bump for bats.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Chris Sale (LHP), ATL | DK: $9.8k, FD: $10.1k | vs. ARI

Dating back to April 25th, which started with a meeting versus this same D-Backs team out in Arizona, Chris Sale has pitched to an elite 1.42 ERA, 2.98 xFIP, .214 opp AVG, 30.7% kRate, and 6.8% BB%. The Chris Sale slider has once again one of the best wipeout pitches in baseball and he quite literally ranks 100th percentile in breaking ball run value while also generating a 34.9% Chase% overall (94th percentile).

The matchup won’t be a cakewalk as the D-Backs have recorded a 125 wRC+ vs. LHPs over the last month (ranks 3rd) alongside a low 18.8% kRate (5th lowest). However, Arizona is 25th with a .229 wOBA versus LHP sliders this season, and they’ve posted a 28.7% kRate versus that pitch as well. Sale is going to serve up plenty of sliders tonight, given his 48.3% usage rate of that pitch, so there is decent strikeout potential even against a team that traditionally doesn’t strike out often. The Braves (-175 ML) are also among the heavier favorites on this slate. Though, getting run support out of this Atlanta offense has been like pulling teeth over the last few weeks. Still, it is hard to knock Sale’s individual upside given the way he has been throwing the baseball lately.

Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.8k | at ATL

Speaking of the Braves and their recent inability to give their starting pitchers run support, rolling out Merrill Kelly may not be a bad idea if you’re looking to get a little contrarian in the pitching department. Kelly has faced a pretty rough schedule up to this point but has still managed to put up some quality overall numbers: 3.78 ERA, 3.49 xFIP, 1.06 WHIP, 22.9% kRate, 6.5% BB%, and 47.4% Groundball%. Outside of the near-1.00 WHIP, nothing necessarily jumps off the page there, but Kelly has generally been solid even against some stiff competition. His non-fastball pitches -- the changeup, curveball, and slider -- have also been especially sharp and opponents are hitting no higher than a .173 AVG against any of those three pitches.

The Braves limp into tonight with a 3-9 record over their last 12 games. In that stretch, which dates back to May 20th, they are mid-pack in essentially every key offensive metric versus RHPs: .243 AVG (19th), .710 OPS (17th), .316 wOBA (17th), .149 ISO (18th), 100 wRC+ (17th), and 20.1% kRate (12th). Even with Ronald Acuña Jr. back in the lineup, this offense has just been exceedingly mediocre. Kelly posted a quality start (6.0+ IP, ≤ 3 ER) against the Braves back in April and I’d expect another QS out of him tonight. He also has < 10% pOwn% on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so I wouldn’t expect him to be a popular target on this slate.

Sawyer Gipson-Long (RHP), DET | DK: $6k, FD: $7.1k | at CWS

We haven’t seen Sawyer Gipson-Long on an MLB mound since the 2023 season. He underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2024 and then had a hip procedure shortly after in July 2024. So, this will be his first big league start since those surgeries but he showed some promise during his cup of coffee in the bigs back in 2023 when he acquired a 2.70 ERA, .189 opp AVG, 1.10 WHIP, and 31.7% kRate across four starts and 20.0 IP. SGL has been getting some rehab starts down in the minor leagues and, across 16.1 IP there, he has looked good while pitching to a 2.20 ERA, 3.02 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, 25.4% kRate, and 3.2% BB%. That being said, he only threw 53 pitches in his most recent rehab start, so he is most definitely going to be working under some restrictions tonight.

It will be a nice landing spot for Gipson-Long to make his MLB return. The White Sox have an MLB-worst .627 OPS against RHPs over the last month and are 29th with a 78 wRC+. They’re not among the most strikeout-heavy offenses (21.6% kRate vs. RHPs L30Days, 14th highest), but there are certainly Ks to be had at different parts of the order. The Tigers (-218 ML) are also the heaviest favorites on the slate. If he is allowed to throw around 70 pitches tonight, I believe we could realistically get five solid innings out of SGL with a good chance of him being in line for the win bonus. He’ll be more of a risk/reward DraftKings SP2 option given his flat $6,000 price tag over there.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Nick Pivetta (RHP), SD | DK: $10k, FD: $10.5k | at SF

Noah Cameron (LHP), KC | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9k | at STL (Monitor weather!)

Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF | DK: $8.3k, FD: $7.2k | vs. SD

Zebby Matthews (RHP), MIN | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.2k | at ATH

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Minnesota Twins vs. Sean Newcomb (LHP), ATH

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. The Twins now have 20 runs on 26 hits across the first two games of this series against the A’s, and tonight’s hitting weather at Sutter Health Park (#1 most hitter-friendly ballpark) looks to be the best thus far with 85-90 degree temps for much of this game along with ~15 mph winds blowing out to left. It’s a fairly short sample size (43 PAs), but against LHPs over the last week, the Twins are OPS’ing at .928 with a .396 wOBA, .278 ISO, and 165 wRC+.

Sean Newcomb, who got a few starts with the Red Sox but mostly appeared out of the bullpen in multi-inning relief prior to being acquired by the A’s, has put up a decent 3.77 ERA and 3.98 xFIP across his 45.1 IP this season. However, his 1.74 WHIP and .317 opp AVG tell a completely different story than what the ERA and xFIP would indicate. He has also allowed a lofty 46.9% HardHit%. Newcomb’s pitch count will also be a major question mark as he has thrown no more than 44 pitches in his last four appearances (all out of the bullpen). We’ll assume that Newcomb won’t pitch very deep into this game, maaaaybe four or five innings, if he’s lucky. So that would leave an awful A’s bullpen to eat up a good chunk of the innings tonight. We’ve hammered home this point the last couple of days, but over the L2Weeks, the A’s bullpen has pretty easily been the worst BP in MLB with an 8.83 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, .329 opp AVG, and 2.21 HR/9 Rate in that span.

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, Willi Castro

Bargain Bat: Royce Lewis

Late Edit: I’m seeing some sources indicate it could be LHP Jeffrey Springs starting on the mound for the A’s tonight. The Twins would be in a strong spot regardless, though I’d be more excited about the upside if it was a Newcomb (for the first few innings) + A’s bullpen game.

New York Mets (LHBs Preferred) vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

While you don’t have to fully ignore the Mets RHBs if you’re looking to stack ‘em, with the main righty to put in NYM stacks being Pete Alonso, there’s no question that the lefty Mets bats land in the best matchup tonight -- and there should be six lefty hitters in the lineup tonight. Tony Gonsolin has had some extreme traditional splits this season:

Gonsolin vs. LHBs: 6.06 ERA, 6.11 xFIP, .411 opp wOBA, .238 opp ISO, 1.78 WHIP, 11.8% kRate, 2.20 HR/9 Rate

Gonsolin vs. RHBs: 4.30 ERA, 2.63 xFIP, .303 opp wOBA, .222 opp ISO, 1.09 WHIP, 39.0% kRate, 2.50 HR/9 Rate

He has given up homers and power to both sides of the plate but allows consistently more damage to LHBs.

The Mets have put up a .789 OPS, .252 ISO, and 123 wRC+ against RHPs L2Weeks and have looked pretty solid in the first two games of this big road series against the Dodgers. Much like their starting rotation, the Dodgers’ bullpen, which has thrown the most innings in baseball this season, has also been bitten by the injury bug. They’re not operating at full strength and are overall a fairly middling bullpen at the moment.

Favorite NYM Bats: Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Brandon Nimmo

Bargain Bat: Brett Baty

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kumar Rocker (RHP), TEX

Reminder: Monitor weather for this game.

As long as this game isn’t washed out, the Rays offense could emerge as a solid low-owned stack. Every hitter in the projected Rays lineup has a < 6% pOwn%. Tampa Bay has somewhat quietly been one of the better offenses in baseball recently and, against RHPs L2Weeks, they’re 3rd in OPS (.806), 3rd in wOBA (.353), 1st in ISO (.207), and 2nd in wRC+ (133). They’re seeing the ball well and knocking plenty of XBH around the yard. They’re also 1st in MLB with 21 stolen bases L2Weeks, which is always a nice bonus for DFS purposes when you can get some aggressive baserunners into your lineups.

Kumar Rocker hasn’t pitched since April 23rd due to a shoulder injury. So he’ll likely have some rust to shake off tonight. Rocker is a highly regarded prospect with a bright future, but the early goings of his big-league career have gotten off to a rough start. Over five starts (20.0 IP) this year, Rocker has come away with an 8.10 ERA, 5.92 xERA, 1.75 WHIP, and 16.8% kRate. The Rangers’ bullpen has been pretty solid lately and may be tasked with a couple of extra innings if Rocker doesn’t pitch deep into this game (or if there’s a lengthy rain delay), but the Rays still have plenty of upside at low projected ownership.

Favorite TB Bats: Brandon Lowe, Jonathan Aranda, Josh Lowe

Bargain Bat: Junior Caminero

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), NYM

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Luis Ortiz (RHP), CLE

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Sean Newcomb/J. Springs (LHPs), ATH

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Corbin Carroll, ARI vs. Chris Sale (LHP), ATL

1B Bryce Harper, PHI vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

3B Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. Clarke Shcmidt (RHP), NYY

SS Francisco Lindor, NYM vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Cade Povich (LHP), BAL

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

2B Brandon Lowe, TB vs. Kumar Rocker (RHP), TEX

OF Wyatt Langford, TEX vs. Shane Baz (RHP), TB

OF Riley Greene, DET vs. Jared Shuster (LHP), CWS

3B Manny Machado, SD vs. Kyle Harrison (LHP), SF

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR vs. Mick Abel (RHP), PHI

OF Heliot Ramos, SF vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), SD

OF Lawrence Butler, ATH vs. Zebby Matthews (RHP), MIN

2B Jackson Holliday, BAL vs. Emerson Hancock (RHP), SEA

SS Masyn Winn, STL vs. Noah Cameron (LHP), KC

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

3B Junior Caminero, TB vs. Kumar Rocker (RHP), TEX

SS Bo Bichette, TOR vs. Mick Abel (RHP), PHI

1B Kyle Manzardo, CLE vs. Clarke Schmidt (RHP), NYY

3B Max Muncy, LAD vs. Griffin Canning (RHP), NYM

OF/SS Jose Caballero, TB vs. Kumar Rocker (RHP), TEX

SS Carlos Correa, MIN vs. Sean Newcomb/J. Springs (LHPs), ATH

OF Brandon Nimmo, NYM vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

OF Willi Castro, MIN vs. Sean Newcomb/J. Springs (LHPs), ATH

3B Brett Baty, NYM vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC vs. Miles Mikolas (RHP), STL

3B Addison Barger, TOR vs. Mick Abel (RHP), PHI

OF Mike Tauchman, CWS vs. Sawyer Gipson-Long (RHP), DET

3B Royce Lewis, MIN vs. Sean Newcomb/J. Springs (LHPs), ATH

OF Denzel Clarke, ATH vs. Zebby Matthews (RHP), MIN

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

No picks from me today but Tyler & Shannon have some excellent suggestions in the props video posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props AI tool to use by signing-up for UnderDog Fantasy for a month of LineStar Premium (Promo code: LINESTAR). Plus deposit match for new customers.

Best of luck out there today, everyone!