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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Depending on your DFS site of choice, you’ll be looking at either an eight-game (FanDuel) or six-game (DraftKings) Monday MLB main slate. FanDuel will be including the two games in the 6 o’clock ET window while DraftKings will not. As such, the FD slate gets underway a bit earlier at 6:30 ET versus 7:07 ET for the DK slate.

We’ve got some exceptional pitchers taking the mound today so I’d lean toward expecting a lower-scoring slate. A few offenses will likely break through and exceed expectations, but it may be a tad trickier than usual to pinpoint the correct stacks. Every team has played their 81st game by now so we are officially past the midway point of the regular season, believe it or not! The All-Star Break is fast approaching, as is the 2025 trade deadline, so things are only going to get spicier from here on out. Let’s close the book on June MLB on a high note and demolish this Monday slate! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣6/30 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• SD at PHI (6:30 ET, 9.0 O/U): [FanDuel Main Slate Only] Some pretty nasty storms are around this afternoon and we may see those linger into the early evening. It’s a little tricky to get an exact idea of how things will play out here, but we can go ahead and assume that there is moderately high delay or late start risk here. The game will likely play, perhaps without any sort of delay, but we’ll need to double-check the forecast closer to first pitch.

• STL at PIT (6:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): [FanDuel Main Slate Only] Storms in the PIT area don’t look to be as severe as the ones in PHI, but they do look to be more widespread. This is just another spot where we’ll need to run a pregame check (around 6 ET) to see how things are shaping up. Right now, anything from “game plays without issue” to “outright PPD” is a potential outcome for both of these early games.

• CIN at BOS (7:10 ET, 7.5 O/U): Mid-80s to start with light winds OUT to left.

• ATH at TB (7:35 ET, 8.0 O/U): Most, or all, of the rain should be clear of the Tampa area by first pitch. There is a chance of rain or thunderstorms later in the evening, which is something to be aware of. For now, we’ll assume that this game will play without any major problems.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Garrett Crochet (LHP), BOS | DK: $10.7k, FD: $11.2k | vs. CIN

As mentioned in the intro, we have some excellent pitching options to choose from today and the game in Boston features one of the more exciting pitching matchups of the season between Garrett Crochet and Chase Burns, the highly-touted Reds’ RHP prospect who is set to make his second MLB start.

Were it not for Tarik Skubal having another stellar season, Garrett Crochet would be the current betting favorite to land the AL Cy Young award. He’s been downright filthy this season to the tune of a 2.06 ERA, 2.71 xFIP, 1.02 WHIP, 31.3% kRate, and 13.7% SwStr%. He has also forced a high 47.9% GroundBall%, so when he’s not racking up the strikeouts, he’s getting those easy outs on the ground. Crochet’s 114 Stuff+ rating is also 2nd among MLB starters behind only [you guessed it] Tarik Skubal. His kRate is also up to 35.8% across his last six starts. Crochet has been a bit better overall when playing on the road, but his home splits are nothing to sneeze at and he still provides ample upside today, if you’re willing to pay for the premium DFS price tags.

The Reds are riding a nice little stretch of baseball heading into tonight, winning five of their last seven. However, they haven’t been mashing lefty pitching by any means. Over the last month against LHPs, they’re hitting for just a .220 AVG, .645 OPS, and 73 wRC+, which are all firmly bottom-10 numbers. Their kRate hasn’t been overly high at just 19.3%, but we’ve still seen Crochet rack up plenty of Ks against less-strikeout-prone offenses. As a team, the Red Sox have been on the decline of late, but they have won four of their last five games with Crochet as the starter and head into tonight as heavy -172 ML favorites.

Chase Burns (RHP), CIN | DK: $8k, FD: $8.8k | at BOS

We’ll jump to the other side of this matchup and throw the Reds’ electric rookie right-hander a spotlight. The MLB debut for Chase Burns went pretty well. He did allow three runs on six hits across five innings (81 pitches) to the Yankees last Tuesday, but he also struck out eight batters, he didn’t walk anyone, and the Reds went on to win by a score of 5-4. Burns can hit triple digits with his fastball, which he threw on nearly 60% of his pitches in his debut and it averaged 98.1 mph. His slider, which is his second most-used pitch, generated a 40% Whiff% last week and, while he only threw eight changeups, he picked up a pair of Ks on that pitch in his debut as well. Across a larger sample size in Triple-A this season (13 GS, 66.0 IP), Burns came away with a 1.77 ERA, 2.00 xFIP, .166 opp AVG, 0.77 WHIP, 36.8% kRate, and 5.4% BB%, so it’s easy to see why the Reds felt comfortable calling up the 22-year-old in his first year as a professional.

The Red Sox offense has been in a major slump, particularly against righty pitchers. Alex Bregman (quadriceps) is still on the IL, along with a couple of other key Boston bats, and they of course traded star 3B/DH Rafael Devers a couple of weeks back. Since sending Devers to San Fran on June 15th, the Red Sox are hitting for a .196 AVG, .617 OPS, 69 wRC+, and 25.2% kRate versus RHPs. On the season, they own the 3rd highest Whiff% and 5th highest kRate versus RHP four-seamers and sliders which, as mentioned, are Burns’ two most utilized pitches. Burns will have a difficult pathway to earning a win bonus, with Garrett Crochet as his counterpart today, but we should expect another impressive performance out of the young right-hander tonight.

Trevor Rogers (LHP), BAL | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.3k | at TEX

The top-end and mid-range are loaded at SP today but we also have some intriguing value arms to choose from. He has only made three MLB starts this season, but Trevor Rogers will get the nod here. Across his three starts, Rogers has pitched to a 1.62 ERA, 2.68 xERA, 0.78 WHIP, 20.3% kRate, and 44.7% GroundBall%. The 27-year-old lefty’s strikeout rate has steadily declined since entering the bigs in 2020 with the Marlins, but he has been doing a solid job at limiting baserunners (.167 opp AVG, 4.7% BB%) and controlling his pitches, given his quality 106 Location+ rating. He also threw eight shutout innings on 101 pitches against this same Rangers team last Monday while allowing just three hits. This outing against the Rangers will come on the road, but that may not be a bad thing as Globe Life Field has rated out as the No. 1 most pitcher-friendly ballpark this season (based on Park Factor).

Facing the same team in back-to-back starts can be dangerous for a pitcher, but we’ll go into this one anticipating another quality outing from Rogers. The Rangers just have not found any consistency at the plate this season. They’ve been marginally better against LHPs but, even so, they rank bottom-10 in OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ versus LHPs over the last month. They don’t strike out a ton (17.1% kRate vs. LHPs L30Days) but, as we saw last week, Rogers could counter the lack of K upside by pitching deep into the game. He’ll be a more aggressive play on FanDuel, but at $6,300 on DraftKings, I have no major issues with Rogers as an affordable SP2 option.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Logan Webb (RHP), SF | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.4k | at ARI

George Kirby (RHP), SEA | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.2k | vs. KC

Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.7k | vs. ATH

Jacob Lopez (LHP), ATH | DK: $7k, FD: $9k | at TB

Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.3k | vs. SF

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: N/A, FD: $11k | vs. SD (Monitor weather!)

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

New York Yankees vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), TOR

It’s a tough slate for offense with so much talent on the mound today but we’ll lead off this section with the Yankees facing an over-the-hill Max Scherzer. The Yankees are still battling out of their June slump but yesterday they had by far their best offensive performance in over a month as they racked up 12 runs with four homers against the A’s. Their recent numbers against RHPs are very much “middle-of-the-pack” but perhaps that performance yesterday can spark some momentum.

The Yankees do set up well against Max Scherzer’s primary pitch mix, which features the four-seamer, curveball, changeup, and cutter. Against those four pitches from right-handers, the Yankees are 3rd in wOBA (.353), 2nd in ISO (.220), and 2nd in HardHit% (47.1%).

Scherzer will be making just his third start of the 2025 season, and he had a nearly three-month-long layoff between his first start (May 29th) and second start (June 25th) due to a thumb injury. It’s of course not a significant sample size, but across his two starts, Scherzer has produced a 5.63 ERA, 6.62 xERA, 1.50 WHIP, 15.2% kRate, and 5.4% SwStr%. Very un-Scherzer-like results for the future Hall of Famer who will turn 41 next month. Scherzer will be backed up by a Blue Jays bullpen that owns the second-worst xFIP (5.01) over the L2Weeks and has seen a good amount of work recently with 158 pitches thrown over the previous two days. On the season, they’ve been a top-10 bullpen but they haven’t been at their best lately.

Favorite NYY Bats: Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Cody Bellinger

Bargain Bat: Giancarlo Stanton

Seattle Mariners vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

Again, offense might be tough to come by this evening but I could see the Mariners having a productive night at the plate. They’ve been a top-10 offense versus RHPs over the last month and they’ve also racked up 26 steals in that span, which is tied for the second-most in MLB.

Michael Wacha is a quality pitcher but he has been fairly lucky this season as his 3.33 ERA is backed up by a middling 4.24 xFIP and he doesn’t strike out many batters (19.2% kRate). His road ERA (3.98) is also over a run higher than his home ERA (2.81) and he has accounted for a lackluster 4.74 xFIP on the road alongside a 15.1% kRate. The Royals’ bullpen has been fairly decent but they’ve seen quite a bit of work over the last three days, so fatigue could be a factor.

Favorite SEA Bats: Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez

Bargain Bat: Luke Raley/Dominic Canzone

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

Favorite PHI Bats: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner

Bargain Bat: Alec Bohm

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

At home is generally where we look to target the Blue Jays, though they had some very nice offensive performances across their recent six-game road trip. But, on the season, they’ve been the No. 7 home offense, averaging 5.07 runs/gm (versus 3.74 runs/gm on the road). They’ve been particularly strong against lefties at home -- .284 AVG, .834 OPS, .364 wOBA, .180 ISO, 138 wRC+, and 17.2% kRate.

Rodon is, of course, an excellent pitcher who is capable of shutting down any MLB offense. He has been getting hit pretty hard as of late, however, and is bottom 10th percentile with nine barreled balls allowed L30Days. He also doesn’t own the best BvP history against this Blue Jays roster: 85 PAs, .276 AVG, .343 wOBA, .197 ISO. The Yankees’ bullpen has also been fairly middle-of-the-pack in recent weeks and they used five relievers in yesterday’s game, so we can probably assume that at least two or three of those guys won’t be available today.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Ernie Clement, George Springer

Bargain Bat: Alejandro Kirk

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

OF Aaron Judge, NYY vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), TOR

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

2B Ketel Marte, ARI vs. Logan Webb (RHP), SF

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Garrett Crochet (LHP), BOS

1B Vlad Guerrero Jr., TOR vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

OF Brent Rooker, ATH vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

1B Yandy Diaz, TB vs. Jacob Lopez (LHP), ATH

OF Heliot Ramos, SF vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

OF Jarren Duran, BOS vs. Chase Burns (RHP), CIN

2B Jackson Holiday, BAL vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TEX

FanDuel Main Slate Only

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD vs. Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

C/1B Willson Contreras, STL vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), PIT

OF Bryan Reynolds, PIT vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), STL

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

SS Corey Seager, TEX vs. Trevor Rogers (LHP), BAL

OF Randy Arozarena, SEA vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

OF Ramon Laureano, BAL vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TEX

1B Vinnie Pasquantino, KC vs. George Kirby (RHP), SEA

OF Dominic Canzone, SEA vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

SS Willy Adames, SF vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB

OF Giancarlo Stanton, NYY vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), TOR

1B/3B Ernie Clement, TOR vs. Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY

1B/OF Luke Raley, SEA vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), KC

C Danny Jansen, TB vs. Jacob Lopez (LHP), ATH

C Gary Sanchez, BAL vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), TEX

2B/3B Christian Koss, SF vs. Ryne Nelson (RHP), ARI

C JC Escarra, NYY vs. Max Scherzer (RHP), TOR

FanDuel Main Slate Only

2B/3B Nolan Gorman, STL vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), PIT

3B/1B Alec Bohm, PHI vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

C JT Realmuto, PHI vs. Matt Waldron (RHP), SD

OF Tommy Pham, PIT vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), STL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!