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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

In typical Tuesday fashion, we have a big boy slate on hand with a dozen games on the board! As you might imagine, there is a wide range of options to build around in both the pitching and hitting/stack departments. However, I’d say it slightly feels more like a hitter-friendly kind of slate. We’ll have one or two spots to keep an eye on regarding weather conditions. Other than that, it should be full steam ahead. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣6/3 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• MIL at CIN (7:10 ET, 8.0 O/U): Temps in the low-80s with light winds IN from right.

• ARI at ATL (7:15 ET, 9.0 O/U): Low-80s with 5-10 mph winds IN from left.

• TEX at TB (7:35 ET, 8.0 O/U): This is the main trouble spot to monitor. There is a huge jump in average monthly rainfall in Tampa Bay once June comes around, and it lasts throughout the summer months, so there will be a lot of these troublesome forecasts for the Rays’ home games while they play at their temporary outdoor ballpark (George Steinbrenner Field). There is a mix of scattered storms and large storm systems moving around all of Florida this afternoon and those rains will likely hang around Tampa into the evening. At best, I think there will be a late start here with [hopefully] a 2-3 hour dry window opening up later tonight. At worst, it's an outright postponement. I’m keeping TEX/TB players on the board for now, but check up on the outlook here closer to first pitch before locking anyone in.

• DET at CWS (7:40 ET, 8.5 O/U): A large storm system should pass by just north of Chicago but the stadium may get clipped by some of the outer remnants. A late start is a possibility but I don’t see much PPD risk here. Temps around 80 degrees with strong 15 mph winds blowing IN from right. So, even with the warm temps, it’ll be a pretty tough night for homers (Note: that may not apply to Kerry “Triple Dinger” Carpenter).

• KC at STL (7:45 ET, 9.0 O/U): Low-80s with strong 15 mph crosswinds, blowing right-to-left.

• MIN at ATH (10:05 ET, 10.0 O/U): More great hitting conditions here with temps in the mid-80s to start and 10-15 mph winds OUT to left. No surprise to see the only double-digit O/U of the day residing here in a minor league ballpark.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Carlos Rodon (LHP), NYY | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10.7k | vs. CLE

Rodon may be the priciest pitcher on the board but it also feels as if he’s in a tier of his own today. Spanning his last eight starts (49.2 IP), Rodon has pitched lights out to the tune of a 1.27 ERA, 2.81 xFIP, .158 opp AVG, 0.85 WHIP, and 32.5% kRate while surrendering just 11 total XBHs (8 doubles, 3 HRs). In his three starts at home during that stretch (vs. SD, vs. NYM, vs. TEX), he gave up just a single run across 17.2 IP, resulting in a 0.51 ERA.

In previous seasons, the Guardians’ lineup has been well-known to be a tough group to strike out. However, that hasn’t necessarily been the case this season, especially against lefty pitching. Versus LHPs L2Weeks (109 PAs), they’ve put up a lofty 28.4% kRate to go alongside a .210 AVG, .576 OPS, and 68 wRC+. So it’s not exactly a tricky matchup for Rodon. The Yankees (-205 ML) are also tied with the Twins as the heaviest favorites on the slate. I don’t think I need to get too analytical here. It’s simply a solid spot for an outstanding pitcher who has been among the most consistent arms in MLB over the last six-plus weeks.

Pablo Lopez (RHP), MIN | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.8k | at ATH

If we can look past the hitter-friendly weather conditions at Sutter Health Park (which recently moved to ranking as the No. 1 most hitter-friendly ballpark) this evening, then we’ll locate Pablo Lopez in a promising spot to do some damage on the mound. Lopez has been good overall this season as he heads into his 11th start with a 2.75 ERA, 3.36 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 25.2% kRate, and 4.9% BB%. Lopez is 2nd among all MLB starting pitchers (min. 40 IP) with a 114 Location+ rating, indicating he has shown elite command of his pitches (hence the low walk rate, as well).

The A’s certainly are not a bad offense and they put four runs on the board against another quality Twins starter, Joe Ryan, last night. They’re also 3rd in MLB in OPS (.819) and wRC+ (132) versus RHPs L2Weeks. However, their 26.3% kRate is also the 3rd highest in that stretch. So, even though Ryan struggled to rack up Ks last night, Lopez certainly brings some excellent K potential to the table in this spot. While it’s not an extensive sample size, in 41 plate appearances versus the current A’s roster, Lopez has held them to a .132 AVG and .177 wOBA with a monster 39.0% kRate. As mentioned above in the Rodon spotlight, the Twins are the other heavy -205 ML favorites on this slate alongside the Yankees, so we’ll like Lopez’s shot at snagging the win bonus as well.

Landen Roupp (RHP), SF | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.3k | vs. SD

There are a few affordable arms that could end up working out this evening but we’ll ‘land’ on Landen Roupp. While he hasn’t been incredible, Roupp has put up quality numbers overall this season with a 3.54 ERA, 3.67 xFIP, and 22.6% kRate. He has posted those results despite having some rather unfortunate BABIP luck (.327 opp BABIP). Roupp hasn’t received many home starts but does carry a 2.30 ERA across three home outings this season. He has also shown strong command of his pitches with a 108 Location+ rating (16th among MLB starters - Min. 40 IP).

Roupp mainly has some appeal due to the matchup with a still-struggling Padres offense. The Padres have ranked bottom three in most major offensive metrics when looking at splits versus RHPs L2Weeks: .204 AVG (last), .612 OPS (29th), .272 wOBA (29th), and 74 wRC+ (28th). Their 20.5% kRate in that span is lower-than-average but the pure hitting numbers just haven’t been great against righties. Roupp didn’t find much success when he faced this lineup back on April 30th (4.1 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 4 ER, 4 K) but, if the Padres continue to have issues against RHPs, the tides could turn for him this evening.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Hunter Greene (RHP), CIN | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.7k | vs. MIL

Freddy Peralta (RHP), MIL | DK: $9k, FD: $9.3k | at CIN

Spencer Strider (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.2k | vs. ARI

Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.8k | vs. TEX (Monitor weather!)

Andre Pallante (RHP), STL | DK: $7k, FD: $7.6k | vs. KC

Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), LAA | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.4k | at BOS

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Philadelphia Phillies (LHBs Preferred) vs. Bowden Francis (RHP), TOR

Since April 23rd (seven starts, 32.1 IP), Bowden Francis has pitched to a 6.40 ERA, 4.75 xFIP, 1.58 WHIP, .398 opp wOBA, and 2.80 HR/9 Rate. If we look at his splits versus left-handed batters in that same span, those numbers balloon to a 9.19 ERA, 5.73 xFIP, 1.85 WHIP, .447 opp wOBA, and 4.00 HR/9 Rate.

The Phillies bats have been somewhat stuck in neutral lately, ranking out as just an average/above-average offense in recent weeks. And the Blue Jays have a solid bullpen to deploy if Francis gets knocked out of the game early. But there’s no doubt the lefty Phillies bats are in a strong spot. They also get Bryce Harper back in the lineup for the first time in five games.

Favorite PHI Bats: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott

Bargain Bat: Brandon Marsh

Minnesota Twins vs. Osvaldo Bido (RHP), ATH

The Twins might end up being the chalk stack of the day but it’s difficult to look past them in this matchup, especially after they posted 10 runs on 14 hits in the opening game of this series last night. Osvaldo Bido has been pretty awful this season: 43.1 IP, 5.82 ERA, 5.61 xFIP, 1.62 WHIP, 14.6% kRate, 2.08 HR/9 Rate. Bido has been hit pretty hard by both sides of the plate, allowing a .409 wOBA/.215 ISO to RHBs and .351 wOBA/.253 ISO to LHBs. He has also allowed 3.00 HR/9 with a 1.76 WHIP when pitching at home -- as we know by now, Sutter Health Park has emerged as an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark this season. It is a minor league park after all and, based on Park Factor, it recently moved from the No. 2 spot to being the No. 1 most hitter-friendly ballpark, even ahead of hitting paradises like Coors Field and Fenway. Behind Bido will be an A’s bullpen that has been awful -- over the L2Weeks, the A’s relievers have combined for an MLB-worst 7.97 ERA, 5.14 xFIP, 1.99 WHIP, .326 opp AVG, and 1.81 HR/9 Rate while striking out just 18.1% of hitters. The offensive numbers for the Twins have been pretty uninspiring overall but, as mentioned yesterday when we had the Twins as a top stack to target, they have been getting healthier with recent returns of Byron Buxton and Matt Wallner from the IL.

Favorite MIN Bats: Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach, Carlos Correa

Bargain Bat: Willi Castro

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cristopher Sanchez (LHP), PHI

Every hitter in the Blue Jays’ confirmed lineup has a ≤10% pOwn%. While the home/road splits haven’t been as severe for Sanchez this season, he has traditionally struggled more in away games. While his home/road ERAs are nearly identical, Sanchez has posted a .271 opp AVG, 1.44 WHIP, and 21.7% kRate on the road this season versus a .227 opp AVG, 1.21 WHIP, and 31.8% kRate at home, so the splits are still showing through in some spots.

The Blue Jays are also just a hot offense right now, and they have racked up 39 runs across their last four games alone -- although, facing some soft A’s pitching certainly helped in that four-game series. That said, the Blue Jays have put up an excellent .318 AVG, .877 OPS, .386 wOBA, and 153 wRC+ against LHPs L2Weeks while accounting for an MLB-low 16.4% kRate in that stretch. The Phillies bullpen has also been a point of weakness lately with a 5.27 ERA, 4.51 xFIP, 1.78 WHIP, .305 opp AVG, and 1.48 HR/9 Rate L2Weeks, so there is still some upside with this Toronto stack even if Sanchez pitches five or six solid innings. Several cheap TOR hitters have been putting up strong numbers at the plate lately as well, so it’s a viable affordable stack to get some exposure to if you’re loading up on high-end pitching and/or a pricey stack elsewhere.

Favorite TOR Bats: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk

Bargain: Ernie Clement

Note: Unfortunately, I’m a little short on time today and will be unable to put the “one-off” and “bargain bat” lists together. They will return tomorrow!

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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Ryan’s PrizePicks Power Play of the Day

Here is a two-pick “Power Play” I’m liking for today's MLB action over on PrizePicks! Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but I put my own money on these picks so I don't just lightly throw them out there without believing they'll cash!

Kyle Schwarber MORE than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Carlos Rodon LESS than 4.5 Hits Allowed

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!