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Main Slate Rundown 🏟

Everybody buckle up because one of the largest main slates of the season is upon us with a goliath 14-gamer on deck! FOURTEEN GAMES. There's no time to waste… let’s ditch this intro and get right down to business. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

💣6/27 Dinger Report💣

Today’s Top Dinger Odds (sorted by LineStar projected HR odds)

Main Slate Weather Outlook 💨🌦️☁️

Check LineStar's MLB Daily Dashboard to see an overview of the most up-to-date game forecasts.

• TB at BAL (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Chance for a stray shower or storm here. Nothing too worrisome. Mid-70s temps with 5-10 mph winds IN from right.

• ATH at NYY (7:05 ET, 8.0 O/U): 70 degrees with 10 mph winds IN from right.

• MIN at DET (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): A decent batch of rain looks to move in right around first pitch but it’s clear beyond that. Moderate chance for a late start. 80-90 degrees with 10+ mph winds mostly IN from right, a bit right-to-left.

• TOR at BOS (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Fairly cool with temps mostly in the upper 60s. Near 10 mph winds IN from right, a bit right-to-left.

• SD at CIN (7:10 ET, 9.0 O/U): A few scattered showers and storms in the general area. One might make its way over the ballpark and spark a delay but, more than likely, there should be no issues here.

• STL at CLE (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Another spot where a stray shower/storm is possible but it’s likely fine. Hot & humid with 10 mph winds OUT to center. Bump for bats.

• PHI at ATL (7:15 ET, 9.5 O/U): Scattered storms around so there is a moderate chance of a delay but nothing worse.

• SF at CWS (7:40 ET, 9.0 O/U): Upper-80s for much of the game with 10-15 mph winds mostly right-to-left, a bit OUT to left.

• LAD at KC (8:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Might see some slow-moving storms develop here that could realistically spark a lengthy delay, but PPD chances seem low even if some bad weather makes its way to the ballpark. Mid-80s with 5-10 mph winds OUT to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Logan Gilbert (RHP), SEA | DK: $10k, FD: $10.5k | at TEX

For a 14-game slate, pitching feels pretty weak at the top, so I certainly don’t hate the idea of just paying up for the unquestioned top arm. Logan Gilbert is now two starts removed from his nearly eight-week injury absence due to an elbow strain. He is putting up some eye-popping numbers thus far this season. His 3.12 ERA may not be among the lowest in MLB, but that is backed up by an elite 1.82 xFIP and he easily leads all pitchers today in the strikeout department with a monster 38.0% kRate and 18.6% SwStr%. That huge swinging strike rate is a key indicator that his high kRate is not a fluke whatsoever. Surprisingly, Globe Life Field has ranked as the No. 1 most pitcher-friendly ballpark based on Park Factor. So, while there are some concerning home/road splits to point to in Gilbert’s numbers, he has only made two road starts this season and this ballpark has been playing similarly to the pitcher-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park in Seattle.

The Rangers have found very little consistency on the offensive end this season. They’ll occasionally put up 5+ run performances (as they have the last two games) then go on a long stretch where they struggle to plate more than three runs. Against RHPs L2Weeks, Texas checks in at 24th or worse in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+. They’re not a huge strikeout team, but their 21.7% kRate in that same span is right around league average and there are some Ks to be had in the back half of the lineup. This game does set up as a potential pitcher’s duel between Gilbert and Nathan Eovaldi, on the Rangers’ side, and this matchup is pinned with a slate-low 7.0 run over/under. However, this will be Eovaldi’s first game in a month and the Mariners’ offense has been among the best against RHPs lately, so I like Gilbert’s chances of winning the duel and coming away with a win as well.

Ryan Pepiot (RHP), TB | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.7k | at BAL

One could argue that Pepiot is in the midst of his best stretch as a big leaguer, so these elevated DFS price points are fully warranted. Dating back to May 25th (6 GS, 38.1 IP), Pepiot has pitched to an outstanding 1.64 ERA, 3.36 xFIP, .156 opp AVG, 0.74 WHIP, and 31.4% kRate while stranding 94.7% of baserunners. Exceptional stuff. Sure, the xFIP suggests he’s pitching above his head a bit and is due for some regression, but that’s still not a bad number by any means. For comparison, the Yankees’ Carlos Rodon has a 3.34 xFIP this season, and he’s a pretty damn good hurler.

Getting into the matchup, there isn’t much to sweat over if you ask me. The Orioles’ offense does tend to be at its best at home, and Camden Yards has ranked as the No. 3 most hitter-friendly ballpark. But the O’s recent results against RHPs have simply not been great… or even anywhere close to “good”. Against RHPs L2Weeks (308 plate appearances), the Orioles have hit for a meager .192 AVG, .633 OPS, .275 wOBA, and 77 wRC+. Their 25.0% kRate in that span is also the 6th highest in MLB. On the season, the Orioles also have the 5th highest kRate against Pepiot’s primary pitch mix which features a four-seamer, changeup, and slider. Pepiot also has some solid BvP history against Baltimore -- across 63 PAs versus the current O’s roster, he has held them to a .207 AVG and .278 wOBA while recording a sharp 34.9% kRate. Pepiot has an underrated Rays offense backing him up and, as a team, the Rays head in as winners in 10 of their last 13 games, so we’ll like his chances of snagging the win bonus tonight as well even though Tampa Bay is only a moderate -136 ML favorite.

Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA | DK: $7.4k, FD: $9.3k | vs. WAS

Due to pricing discrepancies, this will be more of a DraftKings play but, given his current form, I don’t hate him as a leverage option over on FanDuel either. It’s a smaller sample size, but Soriano has been nothing short of incredible over his last three starts, which came against the Astros, Yankees, and A’s -- decent enough competition! In those three outings, Soriano combined for a 0.87 ERA, 1.80 xFIP, .155 opp AVG, 0.82 WHIP, and a huge 35.9% kRate. His walk rate, which has been a problem this season, has also gone down quite a bit in that span -- 7.7% BB% L3Games vs. 10.9% BB% on the season. Soriano leads all qualified MLB pitchers this season with a 65.7% GroundBall%. His season-long kRate hasn’t been extraordinary, at only 20.3%, but he seems to have his best strikeout stuff at home, where he owns a quality 26.9% kRate (versus 15.4% kRate on the road).

The Nats can be a scrappy bunch that is difficult to strike out, but they’re firmly a bottom-10 offense that ranks bottom-10 against RHPs over the last month in AVG, OPS, wOBA, ISO, and wRC+. Washington also owns the 2nd highest GroundBall% (46.8%) against RHPs over the last month, so that plays directly into Soriano’s strength as a groundball pitcher. So, while we cannot expect a huge strikeout total for Soriano this evening, he should be able to pitch deep into this game and put up another strong DFS score.

Other Pitchers to Consider

Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.9k | vs. MIA

Sonny Gray (RHP), STL | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10k | at CLE

Will Warren (RHP), NYY | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.8k | vs. ATH

Jose Quintana (LHP), MIL | DK: $8k, FD: $8.1k | vs. COL

Landon Roupp (RHP), SF | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.3k | at CWS

Aaron Civale (RHP), CWS | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.3k | vs. SF

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: Stacking in MLB DFS is not a requirement but it is a very common strategy used to take down GPPs. This strategy is covered in more detail in the MLB DFS strategy guide linked in the header at the top of this newsletter. Check out the MLB StackFinder on LineStar.

Detroit Tigers vs. David Festa (RHP), MIN

Tigers vs. RHPs L2Weeks: .858 OPS (2nd), .369 wOBA (2nd), .249 ISO (1st), and 141 wRC+ (2nd). They’re crushing righties and, outside of a decent kRate, Festa has not looked great over his six starts this season: 6.39 ERA, 5.36 xERA, 1.61 WHIP, and 1.74 HR/9 Rate — and he’s allowed at least a .359 opp wOBA to both sides of the plate. It’s only a two-start (7.2 IP) sample size, but Festa has posted a 12.27 ERA and 3.68 HR/9 Rate on the road this season. The Twins’ bullpen has been better the last couple of games but still owns an MLB-worst 7.19 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, and .318 opp AVG L2Weeks.

Favorite DET Bats: Riley Greene, Gleyber Torres, Wenceel Perez

Bargain Bat: Dillon Dingler/Colt Keith

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

The Brew Crew has been outstanding against lefty pitching of late. Across 240 plate appearances against LHPs over the last month, the Brewers own a .332 AVG (1st), .905 OPS (1st), .392 wOBA (1st), .191 ISO (4th), and 152 wRC+ (1st). They’ve also stolen 24 bases in that same time, which is 5th in MLB. Predictably, Kyle Freeland has been better on the road when he’s pitching away from Coors Field but his road numbers still do not jump off the page. He’s also been getting hit hard with a 93.6 mph average exit velo L30Days (bottom 5th percentile) and is backed up by a Rockies bullpen that is generally terrible whether they’re pitching at Coors Field or on the road.

Favorite MIL Bats: Jackson Chourio, Christian Yelich, Brice Turang

Bargain Bats: Caleb Durbin/Isaac Collins/Joey Ortiz

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), BAL

Ownership is going to be very spread out on a 14-game slate, so most stacks are going to be “low-owned”. That being said, every hitter in the confirmed Rays lineup has a ≤ 6% pOwn%. The Rays have arguably been the best offense against RHPs over the last month: .286 AVG (1st), .829 OPS (1st), .361 wOBA (1st), and 138 wRC+ (1st). All of those figures only go up if you look at splits against righties in just the last two weeks (.316 AVG, .883 OPS, .384 wOBA, 154 wRC+). So, while they may not hit a ton of homers, this Rays lineup has been clicking at the plate.

Tomoyuki Sugano has his moments, but he’s been a fairly subpar starter across the season and he doesn’t strike out many batters given his slate-low 14.4% kRate. Sugano has also allowed a high 1.85 HR/9 Rate at home -- Camden Yards has ranked as the No. 3 most hitter-friendly ballpark and the No. 2 home run ballpark. The only downside I have to say about a potential Rays stack is the fact that the O’s bullpen has been pitching better of late… however, they’re still a fairly middle-of-the-road group of relievers as a whole.

Favorite TB Bats: Brandon Lowe, Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda

Bargain Bat: Yandy Diaz

One-Off Bats ☝️

A maximum of one hitter per team will be listed below. Feel free to use these players as one-off options, one-half of a two-man mini-stack, or a core piece to a full team stack.

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani, LAD vs. Noah Cameron (LHP), KC

OF Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL vs. Mick Abel (RHP), PHI

C Cal Raleigh, SEA vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), TEX

OF Kyle Tucker, CHC vs. Brandon Walter (LHP), HOU

SS Elly De La Cruz, CIN vs. Dylan Cease (RHP), SD

2B Ketel Marte, ARI vs. Eury Perez (RHP), MIA

OF Byron Buxton, MIN vs. Sawyer Gipson-Long (RHP), DET

OF James Wood, WAS vs. Jose Soriano (RHP), LAA

2B/3B Jazz Chisholm Jr., NYY vs. Mitch Spence (RHP), ATH

OF Fernando Tatis Jr., SD vs. Nick Martinez (RHP), CIN

OF Kyle Schwarber, PHI vs. Bryce Elder (RHP), ATL

OF Riley Greene, DET vs. David Festa (RHP), MIN

SS Bobby Witt Jr., KC vs. Dustin May (RHP), LAD

3B Rafael Devers, SF vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CWS

SS Jeremy Pena, HOU vs. Cade Horton (RHP), CHC

OF Jackson Chourio, MIL vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

OF Mike Trout, LAA vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

2B Brandon Lowe, TB vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), BAL

OF Steven Kwan, CLE vs. Sonny Gray (RHP), STL

OF Jarren Duran, BOS vs. Jose Berrios (RHP), TOR

1B Willson Contreras, STL vs. Luis Ortiz (RHP), CLE

3B/OF Addison Barger, TOR vs. Brayan Bello (RHP), BOS

Bargain Bats 💸

Note: Additional hitting value may open up once all official starting lineups are released. For now, here are some cheap hitters who are already confirmed or currently expected to be on the field tonight and find themselves in a good spot to pay off their modest DFS salaries.

1B Yandy Diaz, TB vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (RHP), BAL

OF Kyle Stowers, MIA vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

SS Willy Adames, SF vs. Aaron Civale (RHP), CWS

1B Nick Kurtz, ATH vs. Will Warren (RHP), NYY

OF Jesus Sanchez, MIA vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Mickey Moniak, COL vs. Jose Quintana (LHP), MIL

OF Alec Burleson, STL vs. Luis Ortiz (RHP), CLE

C Dillon Dingler, DET vs. David Festa (RHP), MIN

1B Nolan Schanuel, LAA vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

OF Jo Adell, LAA vs. Jake Irvin (RHP), WAS

OF Trevor Larnach, MIN vs. Sawyer Gipson-Long (RHP), DET

OF Giancarlo Stanton, NYY vs. Mitch Spence (RHP), ATH

SS Otto Lopez, MIA vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Isaac Collins, MIL vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

3B Caleb Durbin, MIL vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

1B/3B Colt Keith, DET vs. David Festa (RHP), MIN

SS Joey Ortiz, MIL vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Home Run Calls of the Day 💣

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🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for MLB! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Best of luck out there today, everyone!